Craps - Betting Pass and Don't Pass and Full Odds on Pass
April 9th, 2010 at 10:03:22 AM
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In the wizard of odds website, the FAQ includes the question:
"What is your opinion of betting equal amounts on the pass and don't pass lines in craps and taking full odds on the pass line? Wouldn't the pass and don't pass cancel each other out and leave only the odds, allowing me to gamble with no house edge?"
And the wizards answer is:
"No, this is not a good idea. The pass and don't pass do not cancel each other out. If you roll a 12 the pass will lose and the don't pass will push, for a net loss. To illustrate the increase in the house edge in this strategy lets assume the casino allows 5X odds. The house advantage by betting the pass line and full odds would be (7/495)/(1+5*2/3) = 0.326% . The house advantage by betting both the pass and don't pass lines and full double odds would be (7/495+27/1925)/(2+5*2/3) =0.528% . You can see the house advantage is about 62% greater by betting both the pass and don't pass lines. By adding the don't pass bet into the equation you are mixing into the formula another bet with a house advantage which brings down your overall expected return."
My Question:
I guess I understand the math of this but not the logic. The pass bet offers two ways to win immediately, 7 or 11, and THREE ways to lose immediately, 2, 3, or 12. However the Don't Pass bet offers two ways to win immediately and ONLY TWO ways to lose yet the payout is the same. Also, if I go to the wizards Craps Appendix 2, the house edge for a pass line bet is 1.41% whereas for a Don't bet it is only 1.36%. Logically, then, the two bets combined should have a lower house edge than just the pass line bet => the average house edge would go DOWN, not UP. Since the house has no edge on the free odds bet I'm confused? Can anyone clue me into what I'm missing here?
Thanks
Stickman
PS: Also, it seems to me that by placing the Pass and the Don't Pass bets in place until a point is established, you would be reducing the overall volatility of your bankroll
"What is your opinion of betting equal amounts on the pass and don't pass lines in craps and taking full odds on the pass line? Wouldn't the pass and don't pass cancel each other out and leave only the odds, allowing me to gamble with no house edge?"
And the wizards answer is:
"No, this is not a good idea. The pass and don't pass do not cancel each other out. If you roll a 12 the pass will lose and the don't pass will push, for a net loss. To illustrate the increase in the house edge in this strategy lets assume the casino allows 5X odds. The house advantage by betting the pass line and full odds would be (7/495)/(1+5*2/3) = 0.326% . The house advantage by betting both the pass and don't pass lines and full double odds would be (7/495+27/1925)/(2+5*2/3) =0.528% . You can see the house advantage is about 62% greater by betting both the pass and don't pass lines. By adding the don't pass bet into the equation you are mixing into the formula another bet with a house advantage which brings down your overall expected return."
My Question:
I guess I understand the math of this but not the logic. The pass bet offers two ways to win immediately, 7 or 11, and THREE ways to lose immediately, 2, 3, or 12. However the Don't Pass bet offers two ways to win immediately and ONLY TWO ways to lose yet the payout is the same. Also, if I go to the wizards Craps Appendix 2, the house edge for a pass line bet is 1.41% whereas for a Don't bet it is only 1.36%. Logically, then, the two bets combined should have a lower house edge than just the pass line bet => the average house edge would go DOWN, not UP. Since the house has no edge on the free odds bet I'm confused? Can anyone clue me into what I'm missing here?
Thanks
Stickman
PS: Also, it seems to me that by placing the Pass and the Don't Pass bets in place until a point is established, you would be reducing the overall volatility of your bankroll
April 9th, 2010 at 10:16:01 AM
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you must not understand combinations.
the PL has EIGHT ways to win immediately and FOUR ways to lose immediately.
the DP has EIGHT ways to lose immediately and THREE ways to win immediately and ONE way to push immediately.
the PL has EIGHT ways to win immediately and FOUR ways to lose immediately.
the DP has EIGHT ways to lose immediately and THREE ways to win immediately and ONE way to push immediately.
April 9th, 2010 at 10:56:57 AM
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You don't throw one dice with 11 numbers on it. You throw two dice with six on it, meaning that there are 8 ways to throw a 7 or 11, 3 ways to throw a 2 or 3, and 1 way to throw a 12.
Yes, you do lower the volatility. In fact, if you don't put odds down, your variance will be extremely low -- you can't win.
The house edge for a doey-dont is actually the average of the two: 1/72 = 1.38889% because you lose 1 unit every 72 units bet. Some people consider this a one unit bet however because even though you have 2 units in play, only one of them will be resolved so they place the HA at 1/36 = 2.777%. When you place odds the HA does go down but by less because you have more units in play and you lose the benefit of the come out roll.
Yes, you do lower the volatility. In fact, if you don't put odds down, your variance will be extremely low -- you can't win.
The house edge for a doey-dont is actually the average of the two: 1/72 = 1.38889% because you lose 1 unit every 72 units bet. Some people consider this a one unit bet however because even though you have 2 units in play, only one of them will be resolved so they place the HA at 1/36 = 2.777%. When you place odds the HA does go down but by less because you have more units in play and you lose the benefit of the come out roll.
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You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
April 9th, 2010 at 12:38:14 PM
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The bets are really independent of each other. In your mind you are thinking that one cancels the other out, but that's not really true. If you were two different people one would be playing at house advantage of 1.41% and the other would be playing at house advantage of 1.36%. So the expectation is that the two of you would lose 1.41%+1.36% of your combined money.
It's not a very smart bet, but it is certainly not the worst. Betting both ways is no worse than playing the field, and still not as bad as a proposition bet.
People do the same thing with a $1 bet on craps on the come out roll which pays 7:1. In a similar manner they think they are reducing their risk, because they figure that if they lose the pass line bet because the dice end up craps, at least they will win the craps bet. But it doesn't really cover you because you lose the craps bet on the 7's and 11's and all the point rolls. The house average is 11.11% if it pays 7:1 and half that if it pays 7.5:1. So it may be only a dollar bet, but the expectation is relatively low.
To get the house average of two independent bets, you simply add the house averages of the individual bets.
It's not a very smart bet, but it is certainly not the worst. Betting both ways is no worse than playing the field, and still not as bad as a proposition bet.
People do the same thing with a $1 bet on craps on the come out roll which pays 7:1. In a similar manner they think they are reducing their risk, because they figure that if they lose the pass line bet because the dice end up craps, at least they will win the craps bet. But it doesn't really cover you because you lose the craps bet on the 7's and 11's and all the point rolls. The house average is 11.11% if it pays 7:1 and half that if it pays 7.5:1. So it may be only a dollar bet, but the expectation is relatively low.
To get the house average of two independent bets, you simply add the house averages of the individual bets.
April 9th, 2010 at 1:11:23 PM
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Yeah, I posted a similar question as this a few days back. The entire HA come from the 12 being rolled on the come-out. In other words, if the 12 won, rather than pushed on the comeout for a DP bet, you could use this strategy for zero HA.
I proposed using this strategy and betting the PL odds for points of 6&8 and the DP odds for points other than 6 or 8, under the assumption that you'd have consistent wins. Of course the trade-off is that you are only getting small wins, while risking large bets on the DP odds.
I proposed using this strategy and betting the PL odds for points of 6&8 and the DP odds for points other than 6 or 8, under the assumption that you'd have consistent wins. Of course the trade-off is that you are only getting small wins, while risking large bets on the DP odds.
April 9th, 2010 at 1:25:48 PM
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I don't play the Donts, but every time this comes up, I have a hard time wrapping my head around it.
This statement makes sense:
1.41 + 1.36 = 2.77 = 1/36
Go figure!
This statement makes sense:
And, look at that:Quote: pacomartinIf you were two different people one would be playing at house advantage of 1.41% and the other would be playing at house advantage of 1.36%. So the expectation is that the two of you would lose 1.41%+1.36% of your combined money.
1.41 + 1.36 = 2.77 = 1/36
Go figure!
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
April 9th, 2010 at 1:43:48 PM
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Someday someone may find a bet combination that gives the player an advantage, or that at least (ha!) reduces the house advantage to zero (0.00%). But I wouldn't bet on it.
Sure, there are things like card counting that give the player an advantage. But that's a skillful way to play, not a combo of bets.
In the meantime remember three things:
1) Casinos are out to make money
2) Casinos and game makers employ people like The Wizard (sometimes they employ him specifically), to analyze their games mathematically.
3) In light of points 1 and 2, if there were a way to neutralize or reverse the HA, the casinos would get rid of it.
The rules for the various games are neither capricious nor random. They are designed to meet the casino's needs (there are exceptions, and sometimes even fascinating ones).
Sure, there are things like card counting that give the player an advantage. But that's a skillful way to play, not a combo of bets.
In the meantime remember three things:
1) Casinos are out to make money
2) Casinos and game makers employ people like The Wizard (sometimes they employ him specifically), to analyze their games mathematically.
3) In light of points 1 and 2, if there were a way to neutralize or reverse the HA, the casinos would get rid of it.
The rules for the various games are neither capricious nor random. They are designed to meet the casino's needs (there are exceptions, and sometimes even fascinating ones).
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
April 9th, 2010 at 2:37:35 PM
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Quote: DJTeddyBear
And, look at that: 1.41 + 1.36 = 2.77 = 1/36
Go figure!
More precisely using the fractional form you get 7/495 + 3/220 = 1/36
Basically that is telling you that if you didn't put any "free odds" every bet would result in a an even expected value except a 12 on the come out roll. In this case the don't pass pushes, and the pass loses. This roll happens on average once out of 36 rolls.
The "free odds" bet has no house edge.
But 1/36 > 7/495 and 1/36 > 3/220 , so you are increasing your house edge by making both bets. But you are certainly going to reduce your variance.
Like I said, it's not a smart bet, but there are much worse things you can do. A house edge of 1/36 is the normal house edge on a field bet with double 2, and triple 12.
April 9th, 2010 at 7:50:24 PM
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I guess I understand neither. I will try to study this thread though and see if I can understand the math. I don't know if the casinos will actually let you bet both Right and Wrong though.Quote: stickmanI guess I understand the math of this but not the logic.
April 9th, 2010 at 9:16:24 PM
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Casinos will let you bet right, wrong, or any combination thereof. They have the advantage. They'll just comp you on your base bet though.
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You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
April 9th, 2010 at 9:30:42 PM
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Quote: FleaStiffI guess I understand neither. I will try to study this thread though and see if I can understand the math. I don't know if the casinos will actually let you bet both Right and Wrong though.
Let me try it once more.
Bottom line is: Why would you want to give up your chance on winning on the come out roll? It's always better to have a chance at winning then no chance at all!
For the mathematics: On the come out roll you will lose one of your bets only when a 12 is rolled. That happens 1 in 36 rolls on average.
If you make your point exactly as often as you don't make it over the course of the day, you should break even on the point rolls, if you always bet the maximum amount of free odds. The expectation (i.e. the most likely outcome) is that you will will do exactly that over millions of rolls. In reality you usually come near the expected value with some variance.
The casino might find it irritating, but if you are betting free odds, they will probably let it slide. It will help to throw some small tips on every roll at the beginning (bet $1 each on all the hard ways for the boys and keep replacing them until you get to $12-$15).
You certainly won't be the first one to do this bet.
April 10th, 2010 at 7:46:36 AM
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It occurs to me that there is one situation where it is good to bet the doey/dont.
Say you're a $5 bettor, but the table is a $10 minimum. You could bet $15 pass, and $10 don't pass, for a net $5 pass. Of course, that's a big loss on a 12 come out, so throw a buck on the 12 too.
Of course, that doesn't help with place bets. And it violates the Wiz' Ten Commandments of Gambling, #7: "Thou shalt not hedge thy bets."
Say you're a $5 bettor, but the table is a $10 minimum. You could bet $15 pass, and $10 don't pass, for a net $5 pass. Of course, that's a big loss on a 12 come out, so throw a buck on the 12 too.
Of course, that doesn't help with place bets. And it violates the Wiz' Ten Commandments of Gambling, #7: "Thou shalt not hedge thy bets."
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
April 10th, 2010 at 8:42:04 AM
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Quote: DJTeddyBearthat's a big loss on a 12 come out, so throw a buck on the 12 too.
Maybe the other way? 10 doey, 15 don't? just take your lumps on boxcars coming out. If you are taking or laying odds that is the bigger bet.
Remembering that the reccomendation not to do this is *not* intuitive, this likely is still be bad, you could just be putting $25 up against the HE instead of $10 for no real benefit.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
April 10th, 2010 at 10:03:55 AM
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Well, yeah, if you're a Don'ts player.Quote: odiousgambitMaybe the other way? 10 doey, 15 don't?
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
April 10th, 2010 at 10:51:05 AM
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Quote: DJTeddyBearIt occurs to me that there is one situation where it is good to bet the doey/dont.
Say you're a $5 bettor, but the table is a $10 minimum. You could bet $15 pass, and $10 don't pass, for a net $5 pass. Of course, that's a big loss on a 12 come out, so throw a buck on the 12 too.
This discussion is a good example of why "expected value" (in craps, "expected loss") gives a better picture of what's going on than "house advantage". When you play $5 doey-don't, the expected loss is $.0707 on the passline and $.0682 on the don't. If you add to either bet, you increase the expected loss proportionally. So, you expected to lose $.2121 on the pass and $.1364 on the don't pass, instead of just .1414 on a $10 pass bet. If you "throw a buck on the 12", you add another $.1389 to your expected loss.
Every dollar you bet on the line has a cost. Of course, the doey-don't does reduce volatility, and you might get lucky and have a whole session with any 12s (the probability of 200 rolls without a 12 is about .003, or odds of about 279 to 1 against). For $15 pass, $10 DP and $1 12, the expected loss is $29.24 for 60 bets, SD of $43.12. For just a $10 pass, the expected loss is $8.48, SD $77.45.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Cheers,
Alan Shank
"How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
April 10th, 2010 at 1:09:21 PM
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Is expected loss based on the dice rolling precisely as their probabilities dictate, every time?
April 10th, 2010 at 2:06:24 PM
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Quote: derik999Is expected loss based on the dice rolling precisely as their probabilities dictate, every time?
Yes. You are getting on a false train of thought, a la tuttigym(!). Almost always the dice will not roll according to their precise probabilities every "time." In fact, as we have learned (ad nauseam, I might add), there is only a 3% chance that a 495 roll series will fall according to the expected 244/251 pass/don't pass ratio.
You are going to have some winning sessions and some losing sessions. This is variance. The expected loss is based on the long term results.
Expected loss is a difficult concept for punters to grasp just from session to session at the tables. Believe me, though, the casino knows about it and sees it in their balance sheet every month.
Edit: You might be talking about dice control. That would alter the probabilities for the dice. Otherwise, we have to assume that the probabilities will be the same every time the dice are thrown (6/36 chance of hitting a seven, 5/36 of hitting an eight, etc.)
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
April 10th, 2010 at 2:22:14 PM
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Quote: derik999Is expected loss based on the dice rolling precisely as their probabilities dictate, every time?
Expected loss is calculated according to the probabilities dictated by the dice combinations. Basically, it means if you have exactly average luck, this will be your outcome. Think of it this way: if the expected loss for 60 $10 passline bets is $8.48, if two millions people each played 60 $10 passline bets, and you recorded all their outcomes and took the mathematical mean, it would be very close to -$8.48. The standard deviation is a measure is "dispersal" from the mean, so if the SD of 60 $10 passline bets is $77.50, you would expect about 68% of the two million players to come out between -$86 and +$69 (one SD above and below the mean), and about 95% to come out between plus or minus two standard deviations.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Cheers,
Alan Shank
"How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
April 10th, 2010 at 4:30:56 PM
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Makes sense to me. No idea what a punter is though, lol.
April 10th, 2010 at 4:33:47 PM
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I took two statistics classes in college and dealt with all that stuff. Goes to show how much I retained.
Starting to sink in. Knowing that basically throws all those so called systems out, since they can be proven wrong by number crunching, but also because nobody has the bankroll or time frame to put that system to the test millions of times.
Starting to sink in. Knowing that basically throws all those so called systems out, since they can be proven wrong by number crunching, but also because nobody has the bankroll or time frame to put that system to the test millions of times.
April 10th, 2010 at 5:20:56 PM
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Yeah, I hadn't heard of it before joining here either.Quote: derik999No idea what a punter is though, lol.
I've figured out that it refers to a gambler and/or casino patron. Don't know of it has other meanings.
I have a feeling is a British / European term.
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
April 11th, 2010 at 7:40:32 AM
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For dice, computer simulations work fine, and GoatCabin has done tons of simulations, and there is a program (WinCraps) where you can program simulations, so it has been done, ad nauseum.
The only way that you can beat a Craps game over time is dice control. My feeling is that dice control is a very difficult skill to obtain, and that the advantage you gain on the casino with the control is not worth the time and or money you paid to learn the skill. I think that if there were alot of players out there with the skills that the craps table would have already shifted to discourage the use of the skill. So I think that the skill is limited to a handful of people.
Long term, the simulations show that the result approach the mathematical expectation over time, and therefore the best bet to make at the casino is don't pass with max odds, followed by pass with max odds, followed by a buy bet on the 4 and 10 where the VIG is paid on the win at the maximum rounding that the casino will allow (buy for $39, pay $1 commission), followed by placing a 6 or 8.
The only way that you can beat a Craps game over time is dice control. My feeling is that dice control is a very difficult skill to obtain, and that the advantage you gain on the casino with the control is not worth the time and or money you paid to learn the skill. I think that if there were alot of players out there with the skills that the craps table would have already shifted to discourage the use of the skill. So I think that the skill is limited to a handful of people.
Long term, the simulations show that the result approach the mathematical expectation over time, and therefore the best bet to make at the casino is don't pass with max odds, followed by pass with max odds, followed by a buy bet on the 4 and 10 where the VIG is paid on the win at the maximum rounding that the casino will allow (buy for $39, pay $1 commission), followed by placing a 6 or 8.
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You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
April 11th, 2010 at 8:32:53 AM
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Quote: boymimboFor dice, computer simulations work fine, and GoatCabin has done tons of simulations, and there is a program (WinCraps) where you can program simulations, so it has been done, ad nauseum.
The only way that you can beat a Craps game over time is dice control. My feeling is that dice control is a very difficult skill to obtain, and that the advantage you gain on the casino with the control is not worth the time and or money you paid to learn the skill. I think that if there were alot of players out there with the skills that the craps table would have already shifted to discourage the use of the skill. So I think that the skill is limited to a handful of people.
Long term, the simulations show that the result approach the mathematical expectation over time, and therefore the best bet to make at the casino is don't pass with max odds, followed by pass with max odds, followed by a buy bet on the 4 and 10 where the VIG is paid on the win at the maximum rounding that the casino will allow (buy for $39, pay $1 commission), followed by placing a 6 or 8.
I'm curious if the casino would treat dice setting like card counting and cut you off from craps if you actually were able to land the numbers you wanted.
April 11th, 2010 at 8:34:40 AM
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Quote: DJTeddyBearYeah, I hadn't heard of it before joining here either.
I've figured out that it refers to a gambler and/or casino patron. Don't know of it has other meanings.
I have a feeling is a British / European term.
Looked it up and a couple definitions were "One who bets against the bank" or "One who gambles."
April 11th, 2010 at 8:49:11 AM
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Definitely a British term. See the Flashman novels by George MacDonald Fraser or the Dick Francis mysteries/thrillers.
"Win with a smile, lose with grace."
April 11th, 2010 at 9:45:26 AM
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The word is commonly used in England and Australia. It simply means a gambler. Another common gambling term in Australia is "pokie," which we would call a slot machine in the US.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
April 11th, 2010 at 11:39:28 AM
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Quote: boymimboFor dice, computer simulations work fine, and GoatCabin has done tons of simulations, and there is a program (WinCraps) where you can program simulations, so it has been done, ad nauseum.
The only way that you can beat a Craps game over time is dice control. My feeling is that dice control is a very difficult skill to obtain, and that the advantage you gain on the casino with the control is not worth the time and or money you paid to learn the skill. I think that if there were alot of players out there with the skills that the craps table would have already shifted to discourage the use of the skill. So I think that the skill is limited to a handful of people.
I would go farther and say the skill is probably limited to nobody. If the casinos ever get really concerned about dice influencing, they can alway go to one of the card systems in use in California that remove the dice as a determining factor. When you say "beat" the game, do you mean gain a player edge? If so, I agree, but if you mean "come out ahead", I don't agree. Variance virtually guarantees that SOME players will be lifetime winners, not due to any skill, but simply being "on the right tail" of the distribution.
Quote: boymimboLong term, the simulations show that the result approach the mathematical expectation over time, and therefore the best bet to make at the casino is don't pass with max odds, followed by pass with max odds, followed by a buy bet on the 4 and 10 where the VIG is paid on the win at the maximum rounding that the casino will allow (buy for $39, pay $1 commission), followed by placing a 6 or 8.
First, I don't agree that there is any "best" bet or combination of bets that is for every player. Don't pass with max odds is fine if you have the bankroll to survive "early negative variance" and are willing to risk lots of money. I don't believe the difference between the HA on don't pass versus pass is significant. The oft-quoted 1.36% considers the bet amount on the 12; if you do not consider that, the HA is 1.4026. The expected loss, a better measure anyway, is 27 units per 1980 resolved bets for DP, 28 for pass. Don't sweat it! >:-)
The simulations do show that the results approach edge * action over time, but that's over more time than any individual player has. It is possible, in fact inevitable, that some players will remain ahead over a lifetime of play, and a low-HA, high variance strategy maximizes the probability of this. Of course, high variance also means that the unlucky players lose more.
I am preparing a massive blog post based on another computer program I wrote. It compares results of 40,000 sessions each, broken down this way:
flat bet w/stop loss w/win goal +.5 on win +.5 on loss
just pass
double odds
3,4,5X odds
The idea here is to isolate the effects of each factor, the odds, having a stop loss, having a win goal, increasing bets on a win and increasing them on a loss.
Coming soon!
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Cheers,
Alan Shank
"How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
April 11th, 2010 at 11:49:00 AM
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Quote: goatcabin
I am preparing a massive blog post based on another computer program I wrote. It compares results of 40,000 sessions each, broken down this way:
flat bet w/stop loss w/win goal +.5 on win +.5 on loss
just pass
double odds
3,4,5X odds
The idea here is to isolate the effects of each factor, the odds, having a stop loss, having a win goal, increasing bets on a win and increasing them on a loss.
Coming soon!
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Looking foward to it!
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
April 11th, 2010 at 4:26:36 PM
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I don't remember where I read it, but I heard the story of a setter who was on a long roll, and the stickman started to irritate the shooter by using the stick to tap the shooter's shoulder as he was shooting, etc. Anything to put him off his game.Quote: derik999I'm curious if the casino would treat dice setting like card counting and cut you off from craps if you actually were able to land the numbers you wanted.
FYI: Dice shooters don't have to land specific numbers to be successful. They only have to delay hitting a 7.
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
April 11th, 2010 at 6:17:21 PM
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Quote: DJTeddyBearI don't remember where I read it, but I heard the story of a setter who was on a long roll, and the stickman started to irritate the shooter by using the stick to tap the shooter's shoulder as he was shooting, etc. Anything to put him off his game.
It was probably on Heavy's board! >:-) Those guys are always telling about how the casinos fear them.
Quote: DJTeddyBearFYI: Dice shooters don't have to land specific numbers to be successful. They only have to delay hitting a 7.
Believe me, I am fully aware of how people able to keep the dice on axis even 10-20% of the time could gain an advantage. Another of WinCraps' almost endless abilities is that to modify the dice probabilities. You can set up whatever alternate probability file you want, based on 10% on-axis, 20%, whatever. I have done it, needless to say. When this stuff came up on rec.gambling.craps I figured out all the possible sets and the new outcome distributions involved - all the different "perfect 16". I practiced setting the dice to have one of three different "forbidden axes" (you don't need any particular number on top, just the right horizontal axis) surreptitiously, so people would not notice what I was doing. Since I like to stick to the passline with odds, I found the best sets - one for the comeout, with 4/16 sevens, one for points 5,6,8 and 9 and another for points of 4 or 10. I practiced throwing the dice so that they rotated around the horizontal axis. I thought I was getting the idea. Then I went to Reno and tried it out. Nobody would have taken me for a dice setter, I was so smooth. But when I threw the dice and they hit the wall - Boing!! - those pyramids sent them spinning off all over the place.
There was a show in the History channel, I believe, about this. They showed very little actual throwing, but what I saw looked like the dice bounced randomly. I really think that the surface itself and the pyramids are sufficient to ensure random results.
As I've stated, if the casinos really get concerned, it's just a matter of using the dice to "point" to two sets of ace-six cards. Game (if any) over.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Cheers,
Alan Shank
"How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
April 11th, 2010 at 6:29:52 PM
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Quote: goatcabin
As I've stated, if the casinos really get concerned, it's just a matter of using the dice to "point" to two sets of ace-six cards.
I don't think the casinos are concerned. They know that they make millions on player's belief in setting dice. No casino would want to destroy the golden goose.
Frankly, I am surprised that there are not more electronic craps tables where all the bets and payoffs are controlled electronically, but the dice are real. One person could control a table like this, as opposed to four. It would minimize surveillance requirements as well.
April 11th, 2010 at 9:25:17 PM
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Quote: DJTeddyBearFYI: Dice shooters don't have to land specific numbers to be successful. They only have to delay hitting a 7.
Unless they are betting Don't Pass.
But, back to the subject of the thread. On Friday night I was playing next to a guy who bet $25 Don't Pass with no odds, then $5 Come & Don't Come on every roll. After a few points repeated he started putting $10 odds on his come bets. There were a couple of long rolls and he started bumping up his odds and made some pretty good money.
I was playing $5 Don't Pass and laying $30 odds. He told me I was "diluting my edge" by laying odds. I pointed out that I only lost $5 when a come out 7 or 11 hit, and that the house edge on my total bet was lower than if I put it all on the DP. He was also betting $5 Big Red on the come out to "protect" his DP from the come out 7. At this point I just said that we bet differently - my protection against a "large" loss on a come out 7 was to make a small bet backed up with odds. A couple of times he seemed bewildered (alcohol may have been a factor) when a Yo rolled and he lost both the DP and the Big Red.
In the end, I think he did OK for himself, but I left (ahead a little) before he did, so I have no idea. It just seemed to me that on the long rolls he made some money on, he made a lot less than if he had just been making come bets. Then again, he lost almost nothing when there were only a few rolls before a 7 out. I guess I saw relatively low variance in action!!
April 11th, 2010 at 11:02:50 PM
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Quote: seattledice
He told me I was "diluting my edge" by laying odds.
He was also betting $5 Big Red on the come out to "protect" his Don't Pass from the come out 7.
It is amazing the things that gamblers say with such dead seriousness that are total crap.
You can't use one bet to protect another one.
They get so funny after a while. A guy told that for a player 16 against a dealer TEN, that you should just pick a strategy and never deviate from it. I think he thought the cards would punish the player for changing his strategy.
April 11th, 2010 at 11:22:18 PM
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Quote: pacomartinIt is amazing the things that gamblers say with such dead seriousness that are total crap.
You can't use one bet to protect another one.
They get so funny after a while. A guy told that for a player 16 against a dealer TEN, that you should just pick a strategy and never deviate from it. I think he thought the cards would punish the player for changing his strategy.
this advice is mainly given to preserve your own sanity. the decision between hitting and standing on 16 vs a T is so close, it hardly matters if you always hit or never hit. its akin to choosing whether to bet on the dont pass or passline in craps. whichever way you are choosing to bet, just keep with it so youre not flipflopping all over the place.
April 12th, 2010 at 1:24:28 AM
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Its that mental kick that I give myself for having chosen wrong that is often most distracting for me. So its best to just follow your chosen strategy and concentrate on the cards being dealt.Quote: rudeboyoithe decision is so close, it hardly matters, just keep with it so you're not flipflopping all over the place.
April 12th, 2010 at 2:09:42 AM
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Thats why I just don't hedge my bets at all. I try to simply make my bet and then accept the consequences, win or lose. Hedging just erodes the benefits when you do win. So whether I chose to be a Right bettor or a Wrong Bettor may be a decision made by whim, but I go with that decision: make the line bet and as soon as odds are allowed on it, put up the odds money! If it turns out that I was wrong, then I was wrong. I'm not going to try to take the opposite side of my bet for a lesser amount and try to be a little less wrong.Quote: pacomartinYou can't use one bet to protect another one.
April 12th, 2010 at 7:19:39 AM
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Quote: pacomartinYou can't use one bet to protect another one
The only exception might be a fire bet on the fifth or sixth point where the payoff goes from 25:1 to 250:1 and 250:1 to 1000:1.
In this case, when you are on the 5th point, it might make sense to lay the 5th point to guarantee yourself a higher guaranteed win.
For example, on a $5 fire, you've won $125 after the 4th point.
You roll the 5th point on the come out, and now you have the potential to win $1250, if you hit the point, a $1,125 differential.
Why not lay the point for $620? If the point wins, then you've won $525. If the point loses, you've won either $500, 400, or $300 (depending on the point). You've hedged your bet, but you've come out with a much bigger win.
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You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
April 12th, 2010 at 11:52:18 AM
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Quote: seattlediceUnless they are betting Don't Pass.
"Controlled shooters" would not likely bet Don't Pass, because you lose the dice when you seven out.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Cheers,
Alan Shank
"How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
April 12th, 2010 at 12:12:06 PM
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Quote: pacomartinIt is amazing the things that gamblers say with such dead seriousness that are total crap.
You can't use one bet to protect another one.
Of course you can. When you use one bet that partially offsets another, you reduce the variance. Of course, you also add expected loss. Compare a $15 passline bet with a $10 passline and a $5 Field (triple 12, only made on comeout roll). For 60 bets:
ev SD
$15 pass -$12.73 $116.18
$10 pass, $5 Field -$16.82 $ 77.06
If both players have about one standard deviation of bad luck, the $15 pass player loses more than the hedge player. The's what hedging does - it protects against bad luck. It also reduces the gain from good luck.
I'm not advocating this; I'm in favor of increasing variance, not reducing it.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Cheers,
Alan Shank
"How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
April 12th, 2010 at 12:16:16 PM
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Quote: goatcabinOf course you can. When you use one bet that partially offsets another, you reduce the variance. Of course, you also add expected loss.
You are correct, I meant your expected loss goes up.
April 12th, 2010 at 12:29:54 PM
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Quote: boymimboThe only exception might be a fire bet on the fifth or sixth point where the payoff goes from 25:1 to 250:1 and 250:1 to 1000:1.
In this case, when you are on the 5th point, it might make sense to lay the 5th point to guarantee yourself a higher guaranteed win.
For example, on a $5 fire, you've won $125 after the 4th point.
You roll the 5th point on the come out, and now you have the potential to win $1250, if you hit the point, a $1,125 differential.
Why not lay the point for $620? If the point wins, then you've won $525. If the point loses, you've won either $500, 400, or $300 (depending on the point). You've hedged your bet, but you've come out with a much bigger win.
Huh? S/B $630, right? Assuming they collect the lay vig only if it wins, you have:
no hedge
.406 * 1125 = 456.75
.594 * 0 = 0
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ev $456.75
with lay bet for $600 + 5%
.406 * 525 = 213.15
.167 * 270 = 45.01
.2 * 370 = 74.00
.227 * 470 = 106.83
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ev $438.99
If they collect the vig up front, then the top line would be .406 * 495 = 200.97, lowering the ev by about $12. So, you cut your potential win down by $600-$630, you lower your ev a bit, but you guarantee yourself some win. "You pays your money and you takes your choice!"
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Cheers,
Alan Shank
"How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
April 12th, 2010 at 12:38:35 PM
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I think it would be foolish not to lay odds on the fifth or sixth point, as you guarantee yourself a win by doing so.
April 12th, 2010 at 7:03:28 PM
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Quote: HeadlockI think it would be foolish not to lay odds on the fifth or sixth point, as you guarantee yourself a win by doing so.
I assume you mean make a lay bet against the 5th or 6th point, not "lay odds".
You think it's foolish to maximize your win and your expected value?
It seems to me that it's a pretty close call, and each person would make the choice based on the "utility" of the $1125 or nothing vs. somewhere between $270 and $525.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Cheers,
Alan Shank
"How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
April 19th, 2010 at 10:23:36 AM
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Quote: goatcabin
I am preparing a massive blog post based on another computer program I wrote. It compares results of 40,000 sessions each, broken down this way:
flat bet w/stop loss w/win goal +.5 on win +.5 on loss
just pass
double odds
3,4,5X odds
The idea here is to isolate the effects of each factor, the odds, having a stop loss, having a win goal, increasing bets on a win and increasing them on a loss.
Coming soon!
Cheers,
Alan Shank
It's posted now.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Cheers,
Alan Shank
"How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
