Why Baccarat?

I don't have the time to answer this question myself, but consider:

If you knew exactly what next six cards would come out of the shoe, but not their order, could you obtain an edge on either Player or Banker? If so, for what percentage of six-card combinations would an edge exist?

Quote: MathExtremist

I don't have the time to answer this question myself, but consider:

If you knew exactly what next six cards would come out of the shoe, but not their order, could you obtain an edge on either Player or Banker? If so, for what percentage of six-card combinations would an edge exist?

:+) I'm off Monday. PM if no one else does by then and I'll give it a shot.

deleted

I've referred to the big player who has been spreading out 25-25,000 and more.... In his case, is it about the math or about the outcome of his big bets?

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

I believe that its already been shown somewhere that if you were to track every single card by rank in baccarat you still cannot produce an edge except a minute one on the tie.

When Pair Bets and Ties were the only side bets at the time pre-Dragon Bet days, it was the 12 to 14 card cut shuffle. Then the Dragon Bets came along with the 30 to 1 payout the shuffle changed to the half to one deck cut. This was because rumor has it the folks in Atlantic City were able to crack the Dragon Bet towards the end of the shoe through the old 12 to 14 card cut shuffle. The shuffle has once again changed recently to the two deck cut because a year ago someone at the Borgata in AC was able to win in the millions in one weekend at the mini-EZ Bac tables.

Right now many folks are able to "crack" the macro structure of baccarat yet no one is able to crack the micro structure of baccarat because 1) too many cards are in play 2) the shuffle keeps changing. Well not publicly that is with micro structure. I am sure someone somewhere is able to do so and not opening up. Well not a smart thing to do anyways since we all know what happened to blackjack and now poker given how these games have become efficient. Yet with baccarat gaining more popularity and more folks are getting involved in the game, I am sure one day this game is going to get fully cracked from the inside out and will be disclosed to the public. Just a matter of when. I am sure if and when that day comes where you are not allowed to record the shoe and the score board gets taken away, that means someone cracked the game.

The game will not be cracked by "following trends" & "money management".

deleted

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

In this day and age of computers, I'm fairly certain every possible senario has been tested.

If folks continuing to think of just mere two dimensional terms of just Player and Banker (excluding Ties) then the possibilities are limited to the point of being useless. I am thinking that with the combination of cracking the macro structure of baccarat beyond the two dimensions in combination with a way to crack the micro structure, then there would be something statistical concrete in approaching the game. Computers are great in fast processing but it still lies with human creativity and ingenuity to unveil the hidden secrets of the game. New ideas are constantly being found and the help of fast processing is used to speed up that process of discovering them. Right now not many folks heard of baccarat so not much intense interest is being generated. Baccarat's popularity I see is still in its infancy stages in the Western casino scene. As this game becomes more mainstream and popular, more folks with some deep thinkers/tinkers are going to figure out this game.

On a more abstract note. I am sure with more of mathematical problems/theorems/hypothesis being solved and proven, it will flow over to the casino gaming scene however slowly or quickly that maybe. For one personally I am very interested if ever the Riemann Hypothesis is ever proven or solved. Solving this very complex problem of prime numbers will certainly cause major havoc all over.

Quote: MathExtremist

I don't have the time to answer this question myself, but consider:

If you knew exactly what next six cards would come out of the shoe, but not their order, could you obtain an edge on either Player or Banker? If so, for what percentage of six-card combinations would an edge exist?

Joel Friedman calculated these numbers years ago. The edge with perfect knowledge of a six-card subset is an average of 24% on the tie, almost nothing for bank and player.

Favorable opportunities occur about one time in three.

A suggestion: look at the return on investment for the Kelly bettor rather than just the average edge. Edge doesn't mean much by itself.

Quote: treetopbuddy

I've referred to the big player who has been spreading out 25-25,000 and more.... In his case, is it about the math or about the outcome of his big bets?

Both.

The house edge will affect his bets by their average size, so he's skirting nothing there. And the "outcome of his big bets" will be the determinate for his session results. On those sessions where he's fortunate enough to collect on those bets, all is right in his world; on those days, however, where those larger-than-normal bets turn up as losers, he's doomed to rather fat losses.

IMHO, it's "no way to live" at this game. Not a solid, long-term plan. Witness:

I had a mode of play some years ago that utilized a decent negative progression that I had devised for this one particular trend. And, to make a long story short, I won with it. Overall, I had a winner on my hands. BUUUUTTT, I eventually dropped it from my arsenal, and have not played that same way since. Why? Because I was getting to my second-to-last and sometimes even the very last bet of my negative progression just a bit TOO OFTEN for my taste. To me, that is a recipe for disaster, an accident waiting to happen, when you find yourself at your bigger bets all too often. So, I abandoned the play. I refuse to play the role of "sitting duck" at the tables, and I will fool no one, least of all, myself.

So I gave up on a play that actually was working as an over-all winner for me; yes, I am that much of a nut, that much a perfectionist regarding my Baccarat play, that I not only want to succeed, but I also want to succeed both REALISTICALLY and LONG TERM. How I am doing at the tables is important; but how I am doing it is just as important to me.

Quote: Beethoven9th

The game will not be cracked by "following trends" & "money management".

Speak for yourself, Beethoven9th.

I find it rather amusing that those that cannot do it are so eager to insist that it cannot be done.

I "follow trends". And I utilize "money management". Not some times; every time. I live it. I do it at each and every shoe/session.

Oh, and FYI, Beethoven9th, I do it rather well. Imagine that.....

deleted

Quote: Mission146

I'd rather use clairvoyance, you don't need to bother with a pen and paper.

And yet another facetious "cheap shot" from our esteemed administrator.

You certainly do set a fine example for your forum's membership. (See, Mission146, I too can be facetious.)

I claim no predictive powers. Never have and never will. So, yes, I do happen to need both "pen and paper".

But I do happen to utilize a consistent, measured mode of play at this game. And that just happens to put me in the very best possible position, for me, to succeed at this game.

Does it work every time?

Well, yes. And no.

No, I do not win every shoe or even every session. I take my lumps occasionally, like everyone else.

But, unlike most others, I am successful in playing a "continuation" game. And that continuation game is paramount to my recoup and recovery and, eventually, profit.

I don't measure my success in a shoe or a session. I live this game, and my play has been devised by myself to do just that. Over the long term.

And, you know what, Mission146? When you get your Bac game to that point, you just might find that you really needn't any "clairvoyance" after all.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

People will say anything on the internet.

It that your M.O. Ibeatyouraces?

Do you generally paint all "people" with that same cynical brush?

Worse, did you now get to the point where you can't tell the difference? That'd be a real shame, IMHO.

Maybe these folks should go and start collecting silver coins just to be on the safe side from now on. LOL.

deleted

I just want to say I concur with HeBeatMyAces. I can believe that you are ahead for life at this point, and I also believe that if I adopted your exact method, I could be expected to lose.

Quote: Mission146

I just want to say I concur with HeBeatMyAces. I can believe that you are ahead for life at this point, and I also believe that if I adopted your exact method, I could be expected to lose.

Just a thought guys, but would it not be better to just ignore people promoting trend or progression-based systems?

Gr8player has obviously invested a lot of time and emotional energy into his system. You are not going to persuade him to stop writing about it by attacking him, indeed he and other trend/progression bettors respond every time you criticize them with more of the same.

It would be great if we could have a thread about mathematically valid approaches to baccarat. At the moment, infrequent interesting posts about baccarat tend to get lost in this back-and-forth verbiage.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

My M.O. is to make money in a casino with a proven mathematical advantage.

Mathematical advantage goes about right. Yet it requires more. You need proper preparation. There are hundreds of little things you need to do before and at the tables before you lay that first bet. Guys like Ed Thorp and the MIT blackjack team for instance properly practice and study the game taking things a part for months. The poker greats do yoga, mental exercises, hiring sport coaches/psychologists, eating properly and just having an all around balanced lifestyle (well some of them). Mathematical advantage means nothing if you have poor preparation and not executing properly.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Not some hocus pocus voodoo nonsense.

What gr8 is saying and always have been saying you have to read between the lines. To understand him you have to actually play and have some good table experience under your belt to grasp what he is trying to stress. Hell when I first began and fully start playing around 2009 I have no idea what on earth gr8 was yapping about. Thought of just nonsense preaching. After a while and then looking at my own experiences good and bad you realize... Oh! yes I get it... makes sense. In other words you have to do some thinking and not just focus on just the money.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

I hear the same trash from people like you every single day in and out of casinos and one thing is always apparent, these same people always are the ones rebuying in and leaving with less than what they came with.

Many have the philosophy right but have absolutely terrible execution. It is about playing correctly. Something many folks just don't understand and if they do too weak to mentally and emotionally execute. Say if you have $2,500 on the table. You have to keep your bets consistent. Say if you bet $100. Stick with $100 and if you want to bet more $110... $120.... $125... $130.... and not any more. If you are those folks who lay $25 in one bet and then $500 in another.... and $100 in the next bet ..... $30 afterwards, etc... you are going to lose big. This is not blackjack or poker. Baccarat all in itself is a whole new different kind of beast. Requires a different approach. Many ways to skin that damn cat and you need to put in an effort to find the method(s) that will work for you. That is the thing about baccarat. It is not one size fits all. What works for him or her may not work for you and vice versa.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Do I believe your ahead lifetime? Sure I can believe that. Do I believe it will consistantly continue for the rest of your life? No way in hell.

You got to know when to hold'em. Know when to fold'em. Know when to walk away. Know when to run. - Kenny Rodgers

Folks need to study up on the Zurich Axioms.




There is some actual good in all this conventional thinking by the naive and greedy masses. It keeps the casinos in business and open for folks who gets it and have the discipline and emotional control which is very rare to find.

Quote: gr8player

Speak for yourself, Beethoven9th.

I find it rather amusing that those that cannot do it are so eager to insist that it cannot be done.

I also insist that 2 + 2 cannot equal 5. Are you going to insist that it does??? (Because that's basically what you've been doing)

Quote: gr8player

I "follow trends". And I utilize "money management". Not some times; every time. I live it. I do it at each and every shoe/session.

Oh, and FYI, Beethoven9th, I do it rather well. Imagine that.....

I imagine that you don't do it very well at all. Otherwise, you'd accept the challenge.

Quote: GBV

Just a thought guys, but would it not be better to just ignore people promoting trend or progression-based systems?

No, not when new baccarat players (such as the OP) come to this board asking genuine questions about the game. These people could end up following useless "advice" if it goes unchallenged, and they'll end up losing a ton of money because of it. Baccarat is a negative expectation game, and the rest of us have an obligation to call out those who try to obscure that fact.



For example:

Quote: On 6/4, gr8player claimed:

Sidenote: My advice to you guys....write this down. It's a winning play:

BB PPP BBB P B....bet B here. (Sidenote #2: If B and P were reversed in this example, the play would then be P. My trends do not discriminate between B or P, I bet for either one willingly.)

53% winner for me.

This is absolute rubbish.

Thanks for your tip on the Zurich Axioms. Major Axiom #5......Do not overlook the large role chance takes in any speculation. The "math guys" in the forum are bright and I enjoy their input but I know that where there is speculation e.g. gambling, the role of chance can not be underestimated.

Many highly successful traders will tell you that in many cases they were just lucky. Happened to have the right position at the right time. Chance played a major role in their success. Not math, not charts, not delving into the fundamentals...etc.

In earlier post I've talked about the guy who spread 25-25,000. In my opinion his success or lack therein was simply a matter of chance and not math.

If gr8player advised new players on the role of 'chance' in baccarat, I don't think anyone would have a problem.

- Decide in advance what gain you want from a venture, and when you get it, get out.

Something of 99% people can't do or not willing to think about. Have seen it many times at the tables. I remember this situation once at the Wynn last year. A gentleman comes to the table with $5,000. He was a very chatty player. This is a $50 table on a Wednesday morning. After 10 minutes of play he won $600 (excluding commissions). That is a nice 12% return with only 10 minutes of "work." He was playing it safe which I applaud.... $150 here and $200 there not exceeding and overextending his bankroll in play. Not betting on those side sucker bets. He tells me he has already hit his win target of $300. I was like, "You play pretty well and hit your profit target quick within less than 10 bets. Not many folks come to a table with profit targets." This is my second shoe and ready about to color out since I was up $220 surpassing my initial three units win target. Paid $10 tip to the dealer and headed to the cage. Went to grab some breakfast and hopefully play two more tables later if I still have the mental/emotional capacity to do so. Walked around for a bit after the meal. After an hour or so decided to head back to play some more. Saw the gentleman player still playing yet this time with many more chips on the table and there were some yellows and purples unlike before where it was only greens and blacks. I was like Wow! must be your lucky day you are winning big! The player was like "No. This is my re-buy and reload. I am going to win my losses back." Yet now he was not laying the proper bets as he was before. He was doing some wild swing betting. $200 here..... $800 there.... $50 here... then later $300.... $100. Also laying on those sucker Pair and Tie bets. Turnover is absolutely out of whack. I didn't stay long though since after a little more than half way through the shoe I was up $80 and decided I wanted a nap. Colored out and headed up to my room. Didn't know what happened to that player hopefully he won his money back.


- When the ship starts sinking, don’t pray. Jump.
- Accept small losses cheerfully as a fact of life. Expect to experience several while awaiting a large gain.

One of the hardest things to do. Walking away when things are not working. Happens all the time. Willing to just walk. Took me years to finally develop this. After some thinking I realized this. There will always be a table to play. It is 24/7. Especially in Vegas.

Quote: Beethoven9th

Quote: On 6/4, gr8player claimed:

Sidenote: My advice to you guys....write this down. It's a winning play:

BB PPP BBB P B....bet B here. (Sidenote #2: If B and P were reversed in this example, the play would then be P. My trends do not discriminate between B or P, I bet for either one willingly.)

53% winner for me.

This is absolute rubbish.

The kind of trend.... pattern.... or whatever you want to call it that gr8 is talking about, you see it a lot at those damn EZ bac tables at the Borgata. Not all the time but a lot. It maybe something to do with that darn two deck cut. That is what gr8 is also talking about when he is talking about holes. It focuses on the second roll. What gr8 observes may or may not be happening much at other casinos. gr8 is being casino specific. I probably would be disagreeing with gr8 too if I had not played at the Borgata before.

I don't know about the 53% since I have not done much study of the Borgata. Yet if you ask me about the Wynn/Encore in Vegas I may have a bit more to tell and talk about. And the Aria and MGM Grand too.

Hmmm...... speaking of Wynn. I hope he wins the local Everett approval and gets the state win come 2014 to build his casino in MA.

When trading you must learn to love the small loses while always being positioned for the big win. The "Turtle Traders" were right about 35-40 % of the time. When they were wrong they took their small losses gladly....because it didn't turn into a large loss. On their winners, they continued pressing. Sometimes their winners turned to losers. They made tens of millions in Commodity Futures pressing trends. They were able to overcome the natural and powerful instinct to take money off the table. They let it ride......which is the title to one of my favorite movies... Let it Ride with Richard Dreyfuss.

Quote: DMSCR

you see it a lot at those damn EZ bac tables at the Borgata...That is what gr8 is also talking about when he is talking about holes...gr8 is being casino specific.

There's only one minor problem with this explanation: gr8player never mentioned the Borgata at all. Not even once.


Here's his full quote:

Quote: On 6/4/, gr8player said:

Sure, EvenBob, no prob.

(Well, I can do so in Bac; I'm not a roulette player.)

Sidenote: My advice to you guys....write this down. It's a winning play:

BB PPP BBB P B....bet B here. (Sidenote #2: If B and P were reversed in this example, the play would then be P. My trends do not discriminate between B or P, I bet for either one willingly.)

53% winner for me.

Even more importantly, it carries a very tight variance. Very playable, very profitable, when played "correctly".

Quote: Beethoven9th

Quote: DMSCR

you see it a lot at those damn EZ bac tables at the Borgata...That is what gr8 is also talking about when he is talking about holes...gr8 is being casino specific.

There's only one minor problem with this explanation: gr8player never mentioned the Borgata at all. Not even once.


Here's his full quote:

What gr8 mentions you will not see at Resorts World NYC since the shuffle is different. Plus they don't have EZ Bac. Yet you will somewhat see that kind of trend/pattern gr8 is talking about at the Trump AC a few miles away since that casino uses the same two deck cut at their EZ Bac tables.

Well now if you ever drop by the Borgata you will know what to look for MAJORITY of the time. Not all the time but majority wise. Now you have obtained some sort of an edge. You owe gr8 a meal.

Quote: DMSCR

Well now if you ever drop by the Borgata you will know what to look for MAJORITY of the time. Not all the time but majority wise. Now you have obtained some sort of an edge. You owe gr8 a meal.

No thanks. (2 + 2 does not equal 5, regardless of what gr8player believes)

Quote: DMSCR

Well now if you ever drop by the Borgata you will know what to look for MAJORITY of the time. Not all the time but majority wise. Now you have obtained some sort of an edge. You owe gr8 a meal.

How would I have an edge? Why would I have an edge? What is the correlation between the cut card placement and the results of past hands? How does that correlation, or even just the cut card placement OR the results of past hands, affect the next hand?

What if we weren't talking about Bacc? If a roulette wheel came up in the same pattern, should I bet on red? Or does this special rule-defying math only apply to card-based games?

YAY!

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
*facepalm*

One thing for sure in Bac.....if you don't go with the table you get the..."I'm going to kill you, look"

I find I get that look when I go with the table, unless I've been on a hot streak - no one wants their fate tied to the white guy.

Quote: 24Bingo

I find I get that look when I go with the table, unless I've been on a hot streak - no one wants their fate tied to the white guy.

Good point. Come to think of it.... I get the look no matter what side I'm on.....I'm a dead man.

Quote: MathExtremist

I don't have the time to answer this question myself, but consider:

If you knew exactly what next six cards would come out of the shoe, but not their order, could you obtain an edge on either Player or Banker? If so, for what percentage of six-card combinations would an edge exist?

Baccarat 6 Card in google docs. You are on your own for how often each hand occurs. Each sheet is labeled for how they are sorted.
There are 11 hands that always end in a tie. All of the same card plus one more:

Baccarat is the best game to play and deal! Its fun BSing with the other players about streaks and player/bank jumping..and ever since casinos have been adding Panda/Dragon on EZ(Non Comission) games, its a blast