Predicting Numbers on Roulette

So, I've been giving a lot of thought to roulette recently. There's plenty of claims of spin signature, bias wheels, etc. that are thought to be possible to give an edge to the player if they are aware of it and know how to take advantage of it. However, I was thinking that, using some simple formula, one could accurately predict what area the ball is going to land, based on some simple math and timing. Derren Brown, a magician and general faker, did a special where he tried this and was conveniently off by 1 number. He did it allegedly by using his rain man like mastery of math and physics (give me a break), but I don't even think that would be necessary.

For us non-geniuses and non-fakers, even eliminating two numbers where the ball will NOT land would give the player an advantage (only applicable to non-even money bets, based on the setup of the wheel). This idea has been implemented by people who study a wheel or croupier for a brief amount of time, and lay numbers on arcs. This requires memorizing the order of the numbers on the roulette wheel (they are intentionally very disordered, possibly at least partially for this reason). We saw in one of Croupier's posts that he seems to have at least a LITTLE control over the ball, so it doesn't totally seem impossible. My idea is this: get accustomed to the dealer's spin, work out some way to derive the least likely places the ball will land, THEN, guess one number (doesn't matter a whole lot) across from this. Now, I'm sure that there are specific formulas using speed of the ball, speed of the wheel, and all that good stuff, but let's start with just the basic concept for now. I'd love to test this at the casino (maybe I will when I get some money). If I can AT LEAST guess the 2 numbers the ball won't land on and be consistently right more than 35 out of 37 times, that means I have accomplished my goal, as even if my guess within the remaining numbers is totally off, I am lowering the house edge, ultimately making a player edge with practice and perfection.

I know this isn't a new idea, but I wanna talk about it. Most people talk about dice setting in craps, but that seems just slightly less plausible because of all the variables when the dice hit the wall, hit the mat, and so on. Here, there are many variables, yes, but it seems like there is significantly more standard information, and therefore more hope.

Sure. Go ahead and lug all this equipment into the casino to measure the speed of the wheel and the speed of the ball and make all those rapid calculations to eliminate from consideration some number that the little white ball won't bounce into. The dealer and floorperson won't notice all those wheel-clocking lasers or all those wires or anything.

I may be the only mathematician who was ever paid to work on this problem. My client actually did lug the equipment into the casino. My conclusion was that it could not be done, You couldn't reliably eliminate anything (not even a single number). These machines are fakes.

Naturally, I was fired and another mathematician was hired (another university professor). He showed me some of the preliminary work, and I became convinced that the inventor was just being taken for a ride by the other professor.

The best known online site no longer sells the machine. People finance the use of the machine. In exchange for putting up the gambling money they split the profits with the inventor if they win, and don't if they lose. I figure that the inventor will simply beat feet if they lose, and happily take half the winnings if they win.

You do get credit for only expecting to eliminate a few numbers. When you see this illustrated on TV (on the TV series Vegas) they are able to eliminate about 30 numbers, allowing the player to bet on 6 numbers and win every time. Since it was a few years ago they catch the cheat by detecting the infrared rays as they beam the information to the computer locked in the car trunk. Of course, today it is more reasonable to talk about a wearable computer.

the difference is in craps the dice are in your hands, in roulette not so.

Croupier was able to provide bias to a roulette wheel. I think one could take advantage of a croupier who fires off a wheel at the same speed. Since you can't bring in a computer to help you, would would need to figure out whether a bias exists (by calculating the difference between the release point and the landing point and calculating variance, on the spot... low variances would be subject to bias betting). Still, overcoming the 5.26% HA would be difficult. On a single zero wheel with the En Prison rules may be more effective at a HA of 1.35%. It would be alot more simple if the ball just landed in a slot when the speed of the ball got low enough, but because it can bounce, it introduces a fair amount of randomness that can't be avoided which may ruin whatever advantage you might think you have.

With respect to craps dice in hand, dice control is another difficult thing to master.

Quote: pacomartin

I may be the only mathematician who was ever paid to work on this problem. My client actually did lug the equipment into the casino. My conclusion was that it could not be done, You couldn't reliably eliminate anything (not even a single number). These machines are fakes.

Naturally, I was fired and another mathematician was hired (another university professor). He showed me some of the preliminary work, and I became convinced that the inventor was just being taken for a ride by the other professor.

The best known online site no longer sells the machine. People finance the use of the machine. In exchange for putting up the gambling money they split the profits with the inventor if they win, and don't if they lose. I figure that the inventor will simply beat feet if they lose, and happily take half the winnings if they win.

You do get credit for only expecting to eliminate a few numbers. When you see this illustrated on TV (on the TV series Vegas) they are able to eliminate about 30 numbers, allowing the player to bet on 6 numbers and win every time. Since it was a few years ago they catch the cheat by detecting the infrared rays as they beam the information to the computer locked in the car trunk. Of course, today it is more reasonable to talk about a wearable computer.

Interesting story. I thought maybe you could eliminate at least a dozen with a computer, and maybe find a way to eliminate 4 or 5 if you became familiar with the wheel and croupier. I was never talking about lugging equipment into the casino. I don't mean to cheat- I just mean to see if there is any possibility to use rough ballistics and observation to create a lesser edge and possibly player advantage at a fun casino game... but, you have the research and I trust you. I still think I will try whenever I play roulette, simply for the fact that if I'm totally wrong, I still have a random chance of winning, but if I try to eliminate numbers based on where I think the ball will enter, at least there's the illusion of putting more effort into the game, which is more fun to me.

Quote: boymimbo

Croupier was able to provide bias to a roulette wheel. I think one could take advantage of a croupier who fires off a wheel at the same speed. Since you can't bring in a computer to help you, would would need to figure out whether a bias exists (by calculating the difference between the release point and the landing point and calculating variance, on the spot... low variances would be subject to bias betting). Still, overcoming the 5.26% HA would be difficult. On a single zero wheel with the En Prison rules may be more effective at a HA of 1.35%. It would be alot more simple if the ball just landed in a slot when the speed of the ball got low enough, but because it can bounce, it introduces a fair amount of randomness that can't be avoided which may ruin whatever advantage you might think you have.

With respect to craps dice in hand, dice control is another difficult thing to master.

en prison rule only applies to outside evenmoney bets so wouldnt help in this case but playing on a singlezero wheel will definitely help.