jhearta
jhearta
Joined: Apr 6, 2013
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 4
April 6th, 2013 at 12:21:08 PM permalink
Is it advantageous to bet banker and dragon on every hand? I tested this theory at home with an 8 deck shoe betting the minimum of $15 and $10 on the dragon. I started with a bankroll of $500 and ended with $2500 after one shoe. Has anyone tried this at the casino? I have bet the dragon only once at the casino with $25 and hit it that one time.
Beethoven9th
Beethoven9th
Joined: Jul 30, 2012
  • Threads: 75
  • Posts: 5072
April 6th, 2013 at 12:38:58 PM permalink
Baccarat is a negative expectation game.
Fighting BS one post at a time!
DMSCR
DMSCR
Joined: Apr 15, 2012
  • Threads: 5
  • Posts: 774
April 6th, 2013 at 12:47:58 PM permalink
Other than Banker or Player, stay far away from these side/sucker bets.. You may win a few of these bets but in the long run the wins will not make up for all those "little" bets that you put on the side. What is worst is if you win these bets because then you will always be tempted to bet them. Best is to figure out when to put on Banker or Player or not bet at all until that moment comes and manage your risk/bet selection carefully.
DMSCR
DMSCR
Joined: Apr 15, 2012
  • Threads: 5
  • Posts: 774
April 6th, 2013 at 12:51:50 PM permalink
Quote: Beethoven9th

Baccarat is a negative expectation game. You will always lose in the long run.



Yes and no. Yes it is a negative expectation game. That is why you never stay over your own welcome and get the hell out of the table you are playing at the time when you hit the profit target you intended to reach or when things don't go your way. The trick is is to figure what those metrics are. That is to be discovered and planned BEFORE you hit that tables to wager real money. That is why many have fallen because they have not prepared/practiced properly. And no you can't lose in the long run if you know what your goals and purpose are.
jhearta
jhearta
Joined: Apr 6, 2013
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 4
April 6th, 2013 at 1:52:37 PM permalink
On average, it has been stated that the 3 card 7 dragon comes up twice in an 8 deck shoe. It pays 40:1. If it comes up once with a $10 bet, that is a $400 payout. I have seen the dragon appear at least twice in every baccarat game I have played in a casino, and at best, 3 dragons after 30 hands. I have not tried out my theory yet. With only a $500 bankroll, I will give it a try and let everyone know how it turns out. I was wondering if anyone has tried it yet. Thanks so much for your reply.
Beethoven9th
Beethoven9th
Joined: Jul 30, 2012
  • Threads: 75
  • Posts: 5072
April 6th, 2013 at 2:00:43 PM permalink
Quote: DMSCR

And no you can't lose in the long run if you know what your goals and purpose are.


Since you've figured out how to beat mathematics, please share with the rest of us.
Fighting BS one post at a time!
Beethoven9th
Beethoven9th
Joined: Jul 30, 2012
  • Threads: 75
  • Posts: 5072
April 6th, 2013 at 2:04:23 PM permalink
Quote: jhearta

With only a $500 bankroll, I will give it a try and let everyone know how it turns out. I was wondering if anyone has tried it yet.


Yes, I see people play like that all the time.....and they are all in the hole, unfortunately. At $10 a pop, you will be out $700 to $800 if there are no dragons in the shoe (which happens a lot more than you think).
Fighting BS one post at a time!
DMSCR
DMSCR
Joined: Apr 15, 2012
  • Threads: 5
  • Posts: 774
April 6th, 2013 at 2:05:09 PM permalink
Figuring out these Dragon Bets/Ties/Dragon 7/Panda 8 bets is like trying to hit a target that is moving while you are moving yourself and blindfolded. If you can do that consistently I bow to you!
DMSCR
DMSCR
Joined: Apr 15, 2012
  • Threads: 5
  • Posts: 774
April 6th, 2013 at 2:07:58 PM permalink
Very true. I have seen folks up $800 and once $4,000 playing these side bets along with the usual Banker and Player bets yet at the end they are down to just a few chips because they are throwing so many "little" bets towards these side bets. As the payouts maybe very tempting but one has to look at the odds of them happening.
DMSCR
DMSCR
Joined: Apr 15, 2012
  • Threads: 5
  • Posts: 774
April 6th, 2013 at 2:12:50 PM permalink
Quote: Beethoven9th

Quote: DMSCR

And no you can't lose in the long run if you know what your goals and purpose are.


Since you've figured out how to beat mathematics, please share with the rest of us.



Look at all the math that is presently out there even with the Great Wizard. It is all based on 50/50 and if one based on this present finding you are not going to win in the long run. What I have and discovered doesn't cover everything. Yet. What is missing right now is Baccarat Microstructure. The most elusive element and the Higgs Boson of this game. I am sure one day some MIT genius is going to discover that and exploit it to the hilt. Plus he/she/they are going to publicly disclose the findings and then we are all back to square one. Like blackjack and poker.

It is also not about the system/methodology when it comes to baccarat. It is about the process and execution. Your ability to adjust, adapt, prepare and to think ahead. When I said ahead I don't mean predicting/forecasting. What I mean is that once you find something that works you better find weaknesses and then solution(s) to those weaknesses. Symmetry and supersymmetry come into play in this one.

My pattern(s) has remained the same yet the approach(es) to find them has changed eight times through out these three years. For example the way(s) you play a light choppy shoe would be different in how you find a clumped up deep penetrating one and vice versa.

  • Jump to: