Croupier
Croupier
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March 31st, 2010 at 4:09:11 PM permalink
This was discussed in a thread ages ago, but I decided on an experiment to see if spin control was possible.

I implemented the following rules.

1. The spins were to be completed on an empty table or "no game".
This first rule was to protect myself from accusations of collusion at work. It also made it easier to record results, and had no distractions.

2. The experiment was to consist of over 10,000 spins with both my left and right hand.
As we have tables facing both ways, I thought it only fair to try with both hands, and pick a reasonably large yet practical number.

3. A result would be recorded as a hit or a miss.
A hit would be the ball landing in the selected section, in the case of a miss, it didnt. It made it easeier to collect results, and do the maths.

4.The selected section would always be the same.
This was for ease of recording results, and to give me a consistent target.

5.The selected section would be Zero section, plus 17 and 34.
This gave me just over half the wheel to aim for. (19 numbers). Plus my favourite numbersare in this section.

The following are the results.

Right Hand.
Spins completed: 10,074
Hits: 6482
Misses: 3592
Hit percentage:64.34%

Left Hand.
Spins completed: 10,083
Hits: 5827
Misses: 4256
Hit Percentage: 57.79%

The reasons for the discrepancies in number of spins is that for the day I broke 10,000 spins I recorded all the results for that day then stopped.
The discrepancies between right and left hand I put down to my being right handed, and spending more time on right handed tables.

From this I take that I can exercise some form of spin control, although this does not prove any form of accuracy in differentiating numbers, only halves of the wheel.

This experiment does have flaws, as Im sure a good number of you will point out. I welcome this. This was a preliminary experiment leading into other experiments regarding further spin control and the narrowing of the target. However from this I have confirmed my personal belief that some limited control is possible.

I welcome anyone to analyse these numbers further and provided analysis on what this does to HA/Player Advantage and other maths I dont understand. I also look forward to reading any and all comments.
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DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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March 31st, 2010 at 7:47:29 PM permalink
If you had a buddy working with you, and he bet $1 on each of the 19 numbers in your target zone, left handed, that would have been 10,083*19=191,577 bet. He would have won 5,827*36=209,772. The profit is $18,195, or an average of 180.45% per spin. Excellent ROI! And I'm talking about your LEFT hand!


I don't know if that's a big enough sample. I assume that it is.

FYI: This makes your spins biased. The formulas I am presenting apply equally to your experiment as it does to a normal / random spin, but on a biased wheel.



Here's the math.

Normal House Advantage is 2/38=.0526

That means the Player Expectation is 36/38=.9474

So, to overcome the House Advantage, you have to increase the Player Expectation by a minimum factor of it's reciprocal = 38/36=1.05555

So, in your example, a person who knows your target zone is 19 numbers, has to bet all 19 every time. Normal odds of being correct is 19/38=50%. To overcome the edge, you'd have to hit the target 1.05555 * 50% = 52.777%

Obviously, even left handed, you're doing great!

If you manage to refine your skill and make your target zone smaller, the formula is still simple: The normal odds of hitting the zone * 1.0555. I.E. "TZ" is the size of your target zone: ( TZ / 38 ) * 1.05555 = the minimum percent of time you need to hit it to neutralize the house edge.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
Nareed
Nareed
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March 31st, 2010 at 7:49:27 PM permalink
That's a lot of work. I, for one, appreciate your effort.

Now the bad news: the experiment has to be repeated on at least one other wheel, prefferably on several, to rule out wheel bias. Sorry, but you asked.

The results are intriguing and do warrant further investigation. I wish some serious academic study would be done of this. I don't think anyone can control a ball and wheel well enough to hit a given number, but perhaps some dealers could choose a quadrant or even an octant.

Of course, a full-fledged study would involve a number of wheels, as I've already said, but also a number of dealers. And you'd need some form of control group, probably dealers spinning without any form of conscious control.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
Croupier
Croupier
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March 31st, 2010 at 8:16:38 PM permalink
I did forget to mention earlier that the experiment was spread out over 4 wheels, 2 left handed and 2 right handed. I dont know if wheel bias would be too great a factor as the wheels are levelled every morning. I agree that the experiment needs to be repeated by others.

And DJTeddybear - Thanks for the maths lesson. You made that simple enough for even me to understand! But I did notice you were using 38 in your figures, whereas I was working on a single zero wheel ( which I didnt make clear).
Is that a mistake due to me not expressing myself properly or am I missing something?
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reno
reno
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March 31st, 2010 at 8:44:16 PM permalink
What a great experiment! But how did you record 20,000 results without your boss, co-workers, or camera noticing? Weren't you nervous about getting caught?
Croupier
Croupier
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April 1st, 2010 at 4:57:04 AM permalink
I told a couple of people what I was doing who helped me record the results. and the reason I only used tables where no one was playing, so the Management couldnt get mad.
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DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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April 1st, 2010 at 5:37:44 AM permalink
Quote: Croupier

And DJTeddybear - Thanks for the maths lesson. You made that simple enough for even me to understand!

No problem. I love this website - it gives me a chance to exercise my brain muscle!


Quote: Croupier

But I did notice you were using 38 in your figures, whereas I was working on a single zero wheel ( which I didnt make clear).
Is that a mistake due to me not expressing myself properly or am I missing something?

It was a bad assumption on my part. I missed the "just over" part of this sentence:
Quote: Croupier

This gave me just over half the wheel to aim for. (19 numbers).

Just substitute 37 whereever 38 appears in my formulas.

Therefore, for a 19 space target zone on a single zero wheel:
Normal House Advantage: 1/37=.027027
Player Expectation: 36/37=.972973
PE Reciprocal: 37/36=1.027778
Target Expectation: 19/37=.513514
Target success rate to eliminate the edge: .513514 * 1.027778 = .527778

Interestingly, this target rate is the same as for a double zero wheel.


Hmmmm... That makes me question my math. I gotta look into that more.



FYI: The ROI (Return On Investment) part of my post above remains the same.





Quote: Croupier

I told a couple of people what I was doing who helped me record the results. and the reason I only used tables where no one was playing, so the Management couldnt get mad.

They may still get mad.

Assuming my math holds up, and the results you have shown are more-or-less typical, you are now armed with info that could help anyone you partner with to beat the house.

After all, it's no rumor that a croupier with spin control can beat the house. The question always was if it exists.

Now you've said to the management, "I wanna know if I have spin control." What do you think is going to happen when they learn of your findings?
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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April 1st, 2010 at 6:28:09 AM permalink
Is a croupier permitted to look at the wheel when he releases the ball? Usually he must look at a designated spot for a stated time period and then release the ball. Its not that the casinos believe the roulette dealer has any ability or can develop any ability, its simply that they don't allow the opportunity to utilize it whether it exists or not. Besides, they want the dealer looking at the chip layout anyway.
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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April 1st, 2010 at 7:25:29 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

Is a croupier permitted to look at the wheel when he releases the ball?

Hmmm....

That hadn't occurred to me. If the rule is to not look at the wheen when releasing the ball (and it makes sense to always watch the chips), and the test was done while looking at the wheel, that's a big factor. One that would eliminate management fears.


So Croupier, in the test, were you releasing the ball using standard procedures?
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
Croupier
Croupier
Joined: Nov 15, 2009
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April 1st, 2010 at 7:48:46 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

Is a croupier permitted to look at the wheel when he releases the ball? Usually he must look at a designated spot for a stated time period and then release the ball.



This isnt a standard procedure where I work. Our procedure is to spin from roughly the number where the ball landed, so we generally pick up the ball and spin straight away. I cannot say that I was making any conscious effort to look either at or away from the wheel when releasing the ball. Looking into the wheel when you spin doesnt make a difference to chip security. Its when the ball lands you cannot spend too long looking at the wheel, so you normally wait for the sounds of the ball to have comepletely stopped, make a rough mental picture of the layout (especially the outsides) then look.

One standard procedure we have that I forgot to mention is that the ball and wheel must travel in opposite directions, and these directions must be reversed every new spin. I dont know if this affects anything or not.
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