Friendly dice at the craps table

Hope this is the right forum category for this anecdote, though “Betting Systems” might be appropriate, too ….

As my last stop on my recent tour, I was at a craps table at the Gold Strike in Tunica, MS. At the end of one of my turns as shooter (just after I watched that nasty number come up on the dice that had previously been smiling at me), a gentleman who had been watching the game came over and tapped me on the shoulder. He said, “You rolled the dice 22 times on that turn. Are you a precision dice control shooter?”

I replied, “I set the dice the same way each time and try to throw them about the same way each time, but that’s just for my own amusement – I’m not stupid enough to believe that it really has much influence on how they come to rest at the other end of the table.”

It was clear from his facial expression that I had pained him, or perhaps offended him. He just shook his head and said, “22 rolls – I think you have them controlled.” And he walked away.

I told my wife about this and showed her the local gaming tabloid I had picked up. It had an ad for “Golden Touch Dice Control” classes. We had a bit of a chuckle, and I suspect the gentleman at the Gold Strike is a prime candidate sucker to spend his money on such classes. Or perhaps he already has and is disappointed in his results.

I have no idea how common a 22-roll turn actually is, though I suspect some of you may be able to do the calculation in your heads.

Quote: Doc

I have no idea how common a 22-roll turn actually is, though I suspect some of you may be able to do the calculation in your heads.

In my head? Nope. It's horribly complex. Go to https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/craps/ (The Wiz' Craps General Info). About halfway down he shows how to calculate this stuff.

He also states that the average shooter gets 8.53 rolls. Therefore, your 22 roll turn is quite impressive. It's no wonder that guy thought you were a control shooter.

Quote: Doc

Hope this is the right forum category for this anecdote, though “Betting Systems” might be appropriate, too ….

As my last stop on my recent tour, I was at a craps table at the Gold Strike in Tunica, MS. At the end of one of my turns as shooter (just after I watched that nasty number come up on the dice that had previously been smiling at me), a gentleman who had been watching the game came over and tapped me on the shoulder. He said, “You rolled the dice 22 times on that turn. Are you a precision dice control shooter?”

Good job Doc. Hope you made some good money on that roll!

Give him my name Doc. I will vouch that you are not a precision shooter. I see you were saving all your good rolls for later in the trip. ;-) I had a tough go at Beau. 7 craps sessions, 2 of them longer than 7 hours. Started every session in the hole after 1 roll. Only had 2 winners, one at Harrah's Grand, and the other one the last hour before we left on Sunday. Have my other buddy lined up to go next month. Last time we played together, he rolled for 35 minutes, and I directly followed him with 1 hr 10 min. so I am looking for lightning to strike a second time.

I took a look at the Wizard's discussion, and yes, I guess the calculation does get a bit complex. If I correctly read the table of results for his recursive analysis, the probability of reaching the 22nd roll is 1 in 18.5 -- I interpret that to mean it should happen on average about once every time the dice progress through the shooters at a crowded table (12 players) 1.5 times. If that's correct, it doesn't seem the gentleman at the Gold Strike should have been so surprised to see it happen while he watched. Perhaps he just noticed because I was amusing myself by "setting" the dice and was the one to get the 1 in 18.5 occurrence.

Quote: Doc

I took a look at the Wizard's discussion, and yes, I guess the calculation does get a bit complex. If I correctly read the table of results for his recursive analysis, the probability of reaching the 22nd roll is 1 in 18.5

The calculation is very well explained by the Wizard. Most non-mathematicians are not familiar with recursive algorithms, but he show you that given you are in one state what is the probability of moving to each of four other states. The total probability of reaching any given roll is the sum of all the probabilities of reaching any individual state.

This is a branch of stochastic probability calculation. You calculate the probabilities of moving from one state to another by a well defined set of rules. Dice have a very well defined set of rules.

Yes, you are interpreting the table correctly. The probability of reaching the 22nd roll is 1 in 18.5. The probability of reaching the 49th roll is 1 in 1002.

Oops! Raleigh, you posted while I was composing my reply to DJTeddyBear.

Yes, the evening that my wife and I met you and yours in Biloxi was fun but not particularly profitable. I ended that session up $40 after hitting that one parlayed hardway. I spent almost my whole trip (17 sessions at 17 casinos) in the negative, but I recovered a bit in Tunica for an overall win of $205 for the trip (tokes and souvenir chips taken off the table before calculating my win/loss). Coincidentally, the session at the Gold Strike gave a win of $40 also. I don't keep mid-session records, but I think I may have gained something on the order of $150 during my "long" turn. As you saw, I bet fairly conservatively (and cheaply), so long rolls don't make me rich (nor short ones poor). At the Gold Strike I was betting $5 pass and come bets every roll, with less than full odds, plus occasional field and hardway bets for foolish amusement.

You asked me to let you know what I thought of the Harrah's in New Orleans, so I will report it here. Early on Friday evening, some of the craps tables were $15 minimum and some were $25 minimum. All of them were crowded. Most card games were $20 or $50 minimum or higher, though there was some poker variant that had a $10 minimum ante with raises of 2x to 5x (not sure what it was.) I decided to wait until Saturday morning, when I found a $10 craps table, where I lost $125 quickly and left. In general, the place seemed fine, but I am too cheap to play at their night rates long enough to satisfy my desire for the entertainment. I got my souvenir chip, but I might or might not go back if/when I get to New Orleans again. This was our first visit there since 1985, and we found a lot of non-gambling things to entertain us.

Say "Hi" to the Mrs., and perhaps we will meet at some casino once again.

Quote: DJTeddyBear

In my head? Nope. It's horribly complex. Go to https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/craps/ (The Wiz' Craps General Info). About halfway down he shows how to calculate this stuff.

He also states that the average shooter gets 8.53 rolls. Therefore, your 22 roll turn is quite impressive. It's no wonder that guy thought you were a control shooter.

I did a simulation once that kept track of the number of rolls in every hand for 65535 hands. Here's what the results looked like:

A few individual totals:


At 33 rolls, the numbers dip under 100, which is about one-tenth of one percent.

A very simple way to come up with the mean number of rolls is simply to take the average number of rolls to a decision, 3.375, and divide by 784/1980, the number of seven-outs in the "perfect 1980" divided by 1980, resulting in 8.523599.
Cheers,
Alan Shank