Hunterhill
Hunterhill
Joined: Aug 1, 2011
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December 31st, 2012 at 4:07:42 PM permalink
Your strategy is more complicated than Grosjean`s,and has many mistakes. The op was looking for a simplified strategy.
The mountain is tall but grass grows on top of the mountain.
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
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December 31st, 2012 at 4:48:39 PM permalink
Quote: Paigowdan


1. $427 per hour in buy-in money per table (or $854 every single hour from the two tables), for every hour of every day in October 2012.
2. $138 per hour in pure profit per table (or $276 profit per hour between the two tables), for every hour of every day in October 2012.



Right. Because people play terribly. If people played well, those numbers would plummet.

UTH is kind of unique because,

1. The strategy that is "intuitive" for most people is not even close to correct, and
2. Mistakes are extremely

costly.

Compare to a game like Mississippi stud. Most people actually play that game fairly close to correctly. Now, don't get me wrong; they don't play perfectly. I rarely (if ever) see anyone 3-bet a small pair on 3rd street. Most people also don't 3-bet their 4-card outside straight or flush draws, or their big 4-card straight flush draws. But these plays don't come up that often, and, other than refusing to 3-bet the 4-flush, aren't hugely costly. Most people intuitively "feel" that they should never fold a pair, and that they should have a big card and a middle card or better to see 3rd street. In other words, they play most of their hands correctly. Even though the house edge against optimal play is over double that of UTH, I'm sure that it doesn't make as much money for the house when played at the same limits.

Quote:

These real-world figures are through the roof, even assuming that BOTH games were open 24/7. SUPER popular game.
If the hours were less, well, the profit figures would be even higher for the same monthly drop and hold grosses.
Trouble paying the bills with this game? No, not with UTH.



Why do you continually argue against points that I never made?

I fully understand that UTH is insanely profitable right now. In fact, I take advantage of this fact. All I am saying is that the vast majority of that profit comes from player mistakes, and, if everyone played well, those profits would take a monstrous hit. At it's base HE, it doesn't make enough money. With bad players giving away 10+% of the ante, yes, it does quite well. If all those players were educated overnight, I think that the game would die.

Luckily, this will almost certainly never happen. Personally, I think that this is the best possible design for a game. The game has a low house edge against those who play optimally, but a large one against those who can't be bothered to learn to play well (which is almost everyone). So, the house does well overall, and the educated gambler can still get a good deal.

Also, you have to understand that the HE is 2.3% of the ante, total, for the whole hand. That includes the blind bet and the play bet (not the trips bet since that is optional). In other words, if I bet $10 on the ante and $10 on the blind and don't play trips, and play the hand optimally, the house's EV is 23c for that hand. The way that most people play, I'd estimate that the house's edge is closer to $1, not to mention the additional 3.5% edge on the trips bet that almost everyone makes. Mistakes really are that costly.
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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December 31st, 2012 at 4:52:12 PM permalink
Quote: 1arrowheaddr

What is the HE if you only bet 4x on top hands like 9-9 or better and nothing else? The majority of players I see check all middle to low pairs and Ace-x then bet 2x if the board looks innocuous.


You get absolutely crushed. That is the point. I would say that most people check TT and lower, and AJ and lower.

Figuring out exact numbers wouldn't be that hard, although, it's more work than I'm willing to do. I'm perfectly happy to sit there and play and collect the ridiculous comps that come as a result of the game being so profitable. I'm fairly sure that the comps exceed my expected losses.
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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December 31st, 2012 at 5:07:03 PM permalink
Quote: miplet

Below is a full chart on how much checking each of the 4X hands cost. Only 4X on pocket 9's-A's costs 0.10379838612368 antes.



Thanks Miplet! Everything I was always curious about, but never bothered to figure out for myself :) As I suspected, the average player is probably giving up 10+%. If they played optimally (or close to it) the profits would plummet by a factor of 4 or so.

I've seen someone check QQ before...
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
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December 31st, 2012 at 5:13:00 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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December 31st, 2012 at 5:21:27 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

A lady checked AA just today. Isn't the first time I've seen it done either.



Wow. I must admit I have never seen that. I guess I need to play more :)
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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December 31st, 2012 at 5:33:17 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Paigowdan
Paigowdan
Joined: Apr 28, 2010
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December 31st, 2012 at 5:59:33 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomofChoice

Why do you continually argue against points that I never made?


When you are wrong, I simply say so, and how so.
No ad hominen attacks, and no name-calling; indeed, Axiom, I think you are on of the sharper members here.
But the game is a monster, a brilliant design, and with the right player populations, the game is a smash hit with insane action. The numbers back it up: It Pays The Bills.
Besides, I say it is YOU who blindly disagrees with ME as a sport, just for the sake of "disagreeing with Dan." .....Saying UTH can't cover its nut is nuts. At least look at me as a broken clock, right twice a day, - so check first.

.............

My last visit at the Orleans I got pocket Aces twice in three hours, once were quads.
First time: chunked, to plow on through at 4x - got crushed by dealer's straight.
Second time: caught trips on the flop, caught the fourth Ace on the River.

The game is really a No Guts, No Glory challenge. Gotta be General Patton on UTH.

Axiom is right, a few bad breaks can make mincemeat of you. But the only was to leave with gonzo dollars is to use every 4x opportunity you can.
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.
UCivan
UCivan
Joined: Sep 3, 2011
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January 1st, 2013 at 10:42:55 AM permalink
Quote: miplet

Only 4X on pocket 9's-A's costs 0.10379838612368 antes.

How did you get "0.10379838612368 antes"?
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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January 1st, 2013 at 11:09:25 AM permalink
Quote: Paigowdan

When you are wrong, I simply say so, and how so.



Except, as usual, you are arguing against points I never made.

I said, if players played well, the game would not make much money.

You proceeded to pull out a bunch of numbers to show that it makes lots of money right now. Well, of course it does! Players play terribly. I never said that the game doesn't make a bunch of money -- I know very well that it makes money hand over fist. My only point here is that most of those profits are due to player errors. If those errors went away and the house reverted to making 2.3% of an ante on each hand, those profits would plummet.

Quote:

The numbers back it up: It Pays The Bills.



Yes, it makes tons of money, because players play terribly. If players did not play terribly, it would not make so much money. Is this really such a difficult concept to grasp?

Quote:

Axiom is right, a few bad breaks can make mincemeat of you.



I also never said that. I mean, it's true, but I don't care. I was commenting that if you don't play properly and never 4x bet (or almost never 4x bet) then you get crushed. ie, you get crushed long-term. I don't care about short-term swings.

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