Why dice control does not work.

http://www.richardmunchkin.com/2011/12/dice-control-not.html

Interesting write up, but someone who tries to come across as a scientist is doing a very poor job.

However, when someone writes "empirical studies" show this, let's see the studies to back them up. You can't write anything with authority that quotes "studies" but doesn't reference the studies.

I haven't seen any studies that show that dice control is impossible, nor have I seen studies showing that dice control is possible either, for if there were ANY studies on dice control, they'd be splattered all over this forum.

So I say the guy's full of it. He may be right, and he may make decent arguments, but when you add "studies show" and don't link the study, it's really better to just write "I believe" and come off with more credibility.

There are none so blind as those who will not see !

Yeah, I will stand on the fence until I see a study one way or the other. My personal belief is that it's very close to not possible, and that it's a skill that only a very few people have, and to prove that they have it, they would have to throw an inordinate amount of trials so that the statistical analysis is such that it puts in no doubt of the skill that they have. In a real casino environment, that would take at least a year.

Buzz, I am sorry that I am not able to bank roll you to a very large start, but not having any potatoes which to give you, I am now going to stake you to some very valuable advice. One of these days in your travels, a guy is going to come to you and show you a nice, brand new deck of cards on which the seal has not yet been broken. This man is going to offer to bet you that he can make the jack of spades jump out of that deck and squirt cider in your ear. Now son, you do not take this bet, for as sure as you stand there, you are going to wind up with an earful of cider.

Quote: boymimbo

My personal belief is that it's very close to not possible, and that it's a skill that only a very few people have, and to prove that they have it, they would have to throw an inordinate amount of trials so that the statistical analysis is such that it puts in no doubt of the skill that they have. In a real casino environment, that would take at least a year.

The thing is, though, so long as they had a good grasp of risk management and a realistic upper estimate of their own ability, they'd have every incentive to do just that, and by rice on a chessboard become this century's Joseph Jagger. The fact that we haven't heard of anyone grinding their way up from $5 line bets to $10,000 and beyond tells me that if DI is possible, then either the secret hasn't been found, or its true discovery is very recent.

LOL. Yeah, you guys are the smart ones. You gotz it all figured out. MY BAD.

LOL. Written by none other than DICK MUNCH.

Hilarious.

Quote: boymimbo

Interesting write up, but someone who tries to come across as a scientist is doing a very poor job.

If Dice Control took no time at all, the casinos would have no worries about it. Most controllers who run into heat do it for their delay not for winning.

I think the article makes a few excellent points. Good enough that there is no need to pad it with bullsh*t, like "the amping nature of kinetic energy". However, I still find the substantial argument convincing. A roll of the dice on a flat surface is one thing, and may be influenced. But once the pyramids come into play, chaos reigns.

Morover, the experiment to conduct to find out about a reduced rate of sevens isn't that hard to do. If it could be done, there should be proof all over the web by now.


PS: Can I write bullsh*t in this forum? What about f**k?

Quote: Ahigh

LOL. Yeah, you guys are the smart ones. You gotz it all figured out. MY BAD.

LOL. Written by none other than DICK MUNCH.

Hilarious.

And quoting some white guy named WONG. Who was the guru of dice setters before he saw the light !

Quote: boymimbo

Interesting write up, but someone who tries to come across as a scientist is doing a very poor job.

However, when someone writes "empirical studies" show this, let's see the studies to back them up. You can't write anything with authority that quotes "studies" but doesn't reference the studies.

I haven't seen any studies that show that dice control is impossible, nor have I seen studies showing that dice control is possible either, for if there were ANY studies on dice control, they'd be splattered all over this forum.

So I say the guy's full of it. He may be right, and he may make decent arguments, but when you add "studies show" and don't link the study, it's really better to just write "I believe" and come off with more credibility.

Please make sure you give Bret Maverick's Dad credit for your blatant plagiarism. And have you sent in your last payment for dice setting school ?

Wong and long duck dong. If Wong was really interested in the truth, why has he not made an effort to contact me? Speaking of truth, what is Wong's real name again? Wong isn't an Asian fellow is he? Truthfully? What image is more important, the true image that is difficult and complex to explain and understand or believe, or the one that sells easily to eager people who want to learn quickly and earns you a paycheck?

My paycheck has absolutely NOTHING to do with advantage play income from any game or selling tips on how to exploit casinos.

I think Wong is looking to preserve his reputation as a reputable writer on advantage play by narrowing his scope.

If I had a bunch of books I was selling on AP for all kinds of games, I might do the same thing that he's doing.

But I have nothing to GAIN or to LOSE by taking one side of the argument or another.

It is easy to reach a conclusion, and just because I haven't reached one to say one way or another doesn't mean that others who have are ahead of me.

And besides, the journey is the adventure, and I am enjoying mine.

Of all people interested to see what I'm doing, SOOPOO is on the top of the list right now, and Teddy is a close #2. Of those two, Teddy is the only one with enough interest in craps for his opinion to matter from my perspective. SOOPOO just likes to be right and wants to bet to prove that he's right to make even more money and make himself sleep better at night knowing he knows what he knows and will back it up with cash.

Teddy knows what the Wizard teaches about craps, but not much else. I am at the point where I know more about craps that pretty much ANYBODY that I run into. That includes all the dealers and the pit guys and on and on.

The whole idea that there's some dude who sells books for a living that knows more about what I am doing that I know is sort of funny to me. So I'm sorry if I find humor in it, but I do.

About as much humor as the Shoe worrying about guys taking weekend classes and taking their money. That's a joke to me too.

I have never seen a dice setter 86'ed for being successful.

The box HAS told dice setters to stop shooting and pass the dice if they repeatedly refuse to hit the back wall, but that is it.

It is not like card counting, where the counter is 86'ed upon discovery.

So, I ask myself "Why do casinos, with their near-infinite abilities to detect and analyze a threat, dismiss dice setting as a mere annoyance?"

There is only one correct answer to the question.

Quote: MrV

So, I ask myself "Why do casinos, with their near-infinite abilities to detect and analyze a threat, dismiss dice setting as a mere annoyance?"

Actually, casinos are very serious about not allowing the setting of dice at crapshooter tubs. It seems that casinos believe that the dice can be influenced from shorter distances, even with a back wall of triangles.

" I am at the point where I know more about craps that pretty much ANYBODY that I run into. That includes all the dealers and the pit guys and on and on."

I must admire your modesty. A crap table in your basement does indeed make you worthy of genius status .

That whirring noise you hear in the background is John Scarne spinning in his grave !

Quote: Buzzard

I must admire your modesty. A crap table in your basement does indeed make you worthy of genius status .

Buzz... you know not of what you speak. I can attest that Ahigh's craps table is on the main floor of his house, not in the basement!
I admit I know very little about craps. The only thing I am sure of is that there is no human alive who can influence the dice in a real casino environment enough to overcome the built in house edge. And, yes, AHigh, you know I am willing to bet on it!

Quote: SOOPOO

Buzz... you know not of what you speak. I can attest that Ahigh's craps table is on the main floor of his house, not in the basement!
I admit I know very little about craps. The only thing I am sure of is that there is no human alive who can influence the dice in a real casino environment enough to overcome the built in house edge. And, yes, AHigh, you know I am willing to bet on it!

Oh, it's on the first floor. My apologies. I meant no disrespect. Back east many basements are paneled and quite luxurious.

But perhaps ahigh can share his intelligence among the less gifted, like me and Standford Wong. Would he be willing to state just one thing, mind you, just one, that he knows about craps that all the dealers, stickmen, etc in his world do not know ?

Hell, I will settle for one thing he knows about craps that teddys does not !

Quote: Buzzard

Please make sure you give Bret Maverick's Dad credit for your blatant plagiarism. And have you sent in your last payment for dice setting school ?

I figured most knowledgeable gamblers would get the reference. I was not aware that Bret Maverick and Sky Masterson are brothers. Thanks for teaching me something.

Nevertheless, it appears that your knowledge of stage and screen is challenged only by your understanding of physics (and perhaps by your ability to respond to the right post). In both cases, I suggest a more evidence-based approach.

Quote: waltomeal

I figured most knowledgeable gamblers would get the reference. I was not aware that Bret Maverick and Sky Masterson are brothers. Thanks for teaching me something.

For those who don't get the sarcasm, the quote was from the character Sky Masterson in Damon Runyon's "Guys And Dolls" (1932).

"Maverick" first appeared 25 years after "Guys And Dolls."

Now, let's keep the party polite.

Quote: 24Bingo

Now, let's keep the party polite.

No problem. I just thought Bart Maverick was a good reference. But I admit there is an earlier reference.

HOWEVER it was not a quote by Sky Masterson until 1950. It does not appear in the book upon which Guys and Dolls was based.

the 1932 book by Damon Runyon titled "The Idyll of Miss Sarah Brown" .

Quote: Buzzard

No problem. I just thought Bart Maverick was a good reference. But I admit there is an earlier reference.

HOWEVER it was not a quote by Sky Masterson until 1950. It does not appear in the book upon which Guys and Dolls was based.

the 1932 book by Damon Runyon titled "The Idyll of Miss Sarah Brown" .

" Thanks for teaching me something. " You're welcome.

Quote: Ahigh

I know more about craps that pretty much ANYBODY that I run into. That includes all the dealers and the pit guys...

Maybe, maybe not.

I know quite a bit about the game.

Here's a couple "softball" questions:

1) What is Little Joe's older brother's name?

2) Explain the "place to lose" bet.

No googling ...

Quote: Buzzard

HOWEVER it was not a quote by Sky Masterson until 1950. It does not appear in the book upon which Guys and Dolls was based. the 1932 book by Damon Runyon titled "The Idyll of Miss Sarah Brown" .

The quote is attributed to Damon Runyan's "The Idyll of Miss Sarah Brown." The musical was based on that story and others by Runyan.

By the way, "... Miss Sarah Brown" appeared in a collection of short stories called "Guys And Dolls."

Let the challenge begin !

Quote: tupp

The quote is attributed to Damon Runyan's "The Idyll of Miss Sarah Brown." The musical was based on that story and others by Runyan.

By the way, "... Miss Sarah Brown" appeared in a collection of short stories called "Guys And Dolls."

Instead of referring to Wikipedia, take the time to read the text of Miss Sarah Brown.

Buzz, I'm looking at the text right now, and it's in the fourth paragraph.

Quote: 24Bingo

Buzz, I'm looking at the text right now, and it's in the fourth paragraph.

Darn you! I was going to offer him a $1000 bet!

Here's a link.

Quote: Buzzard

No problem. I just thought Bart Maverick was a good reference.

That is the problem. You take things that you think are correct and declare them to be facts without doing any research. When someone disagrees, you bully and malign them until they leave.

I had hoped things would have improved over the last few months, but the forum remains an inhospitable place.

Little joe's big brother is big richard. The zipper ripper. Every girl/woman's best friend.

Nobody in vegas takes place to lose bets because the edge is pretty low. I didn't look it up, and I absolutely already knew that.

Most places in vegas charge commission on the bet for lay bets which is as close to placing to lose as you can get.

Vig on the win can be found at Mandalay Bay, Fiesta Henderson. You can lay the 4/10 for free at Bills (or you could before they started remodeling if they have started that.) Fremont Casino downtown actually gives you pink quarter chips for change and has some of the best vig on the bet prices for those (although they have few other redeeming qualities). But the details for placing to lose or as close as you can get are very inconsistent from one casino to the next here in Vegas. I don't know a single casino in Vegas that takes a place to lose bet, but I know a lot of the details for how each place handles it. Bill's charges up front for the 5/6/8/9 and free for the 4/10 for example. There is just no consistency in general, but MOST places charge commission up front, and round up to the nearest buck. If they like you and you do enough of them, they might give you a free one every now and then. But this is absolute gray area for most dealers and many dealers have no clue (especially break-ins) you want to "buy a lay" or anything close. At MGM, for example, they don't even have lay lammers it is so rare. But they absolutely won't place to lose a bet. They just use a buy lammer with the chips behind. Sidenote: if you ask for the bet back, you get the commission returned as well, unless of course they gave you a freebie in which case the dealer better remember which one he gave you for free (he will!).

Some not so well known calls:

Hard six: that's two treys, like me at the buffet
Hard ten, puppy paws, sunflowers.

But just in case some people think I'm being outwardly arrogant, it is an absolute fact that I know more about the game than most people including the pit crews and certainly everyone I have met from this forum. We could argue about it if you wanted to argue about it, but it's fact. Keyword to absolute truth .. MOST. You haven't a leg to stand on to suggest otherwise.

I'm not saying I know more than anybody else about the game. Certainly there are still things that I don't know about the game, but I go very long stretches trying to learn new things with nothing. I challenge dealers frequently to tell me anything I don't already know, and I try to do the same in return.

But especially when it comes to the little details of the game like differences from one casino to the next and how they do things, I probably know more than just about anybody. Dealers don't keep up with all that crap, and even the best players don't keep up with all the details that I do. Most dealers rarely even visit other casinos, and very few of them visit as many as I do, much less ask them about what's different here and there.

And I'm not bragging about it. I'm just saying that that is just where I am with this game. I VERY RARELY run into ANYONE that I could say, "wow you know more about craps than I do" to the extent, that I would have to say there's nobody I can think of that falls into that category. To the extent that I welcome to meet the guy who knows more than me about it because I have no idea who that person is.

And with that in mind, just because one person writes an article claiming that it's impossible to influence the dice doesn't change anything for where I am. The fact is that even if you assume it might even be impossible they certainly have nothing to stand on to assert that it is impossible. It's purely speculative guesswork on their part. And I would step forward and suggest that I do in fact know more about these details of possibility than this guy does, ESPECIALLY and INCLUDING the physics, regardless of any guesswork by other forum members about my knowledge of physics relating to how dice bounce on a table.

" I had hoped things would have improved over the last few months, but the forum remains an inhospitable place. "

Well perhaps DT would be a better forum for you. My only intent was to give someone a reading assignment. LOL

P.S. EvevBob says HI !

Quote: tupp

Darn you! I was going to offer him a $1000 bet!

Here's a link.

Yeah, like i did not already know that. I just thought a literature reading assignment over the Thanksgiving Holidays might be a
pleasant experience . Evidently some people must always be right. I have no problem with being wrong and always welcome
constructive criticism.

Being called a bully is not constructive. Perhaps someone could benefit from anger management classes. No one in particular,
just saying. LOL

" But just in case some people think I'm being outwardly arrogant, it is an absolute fact that I know more about the game than most people including the pit crews and certainly everyone I have met from this forum. We could argue about it if you wanted to argue about it, but it's fact."

ARROGANT : Marked by or arising from a feeling or assumption of one's superiority toward others.

The defense rests.

I've made the point in front of other dealers that I know more about the game than they do, and it's something that is generally accepted quickly even among dealers I have never met before. Nobody tells me that I'm wrong, it's just how it is. I put dealers, boxmen, and everybody in check pretty damn quick any time they try to tell me they know more than I do about a topic when they are wrong and I know more about it. I enjoy that kind of thing, but on the details of the game and knowledge of them, I'm not trying to come across as arrogant even though it may appear that way. The truth is that I care more about the details than pretty much anybody else out there, and that's why I know so much.

At the end of the day, nobody else is as passionate about the details as me. And trust me, that's not a slight on anyone. Going to the level of detail in this game that I go to is absolutely not something that makes me superior. It's pretty insane and even stupid from a normal person's perspective. There is absolutely a point of diminishing returns on how it could help a normal person, but I'm just way out there.

Hopefully this qualifies my point that I am not intending to come across as arrogant or superior. Just simply stating that I know more about this game than MOST people.

Anybody that wants to continue this argument, please feel free, but I think .. I mean I am pretty sure .. that nobody is going to step up and say that I'm wrong. And if somebody steps up and says "I know more about the game than you Ahigh" I will say "AWESOME" and "PLEASED TO MEET YOU!"

But that person is nowhere to be found, and the most still applies.

Quote: MrV

I have never seen a dice setter 86'ed for being successful.

The box HAS told dice setters to stop shooting and pass the dice if they repeatedly refuse to hit the back wall, but that is it.

It is not like card counting, where the counter is 86'ed upon discovery.

So, I ask myself "Why do casinos, with their near-infinite abilities to detect and analyze a threat, dismiss dice setting as a mere annoyance?"

There is only one correct answer to the question.

I agree with your perspective on things 100% for what it's worth.

It's quite possible that there are no (legal) threats operating out there at this moment -- including the entire globe of craps tables.

But "correct answer" thinking is sort of an "in-the-box" type of thought to me.

I have been the first to do many things before in my life. Someone not doing them before me is interesting, but not proof that it's impossible.

Well, then?

With full odds, I figure you ought to have a yield of at least 1/200 the base bet if you've got anything. A line bet of 1/(200*(max odds on 6/8 + 1)^2) your bankroll should be "safe," then, although you'll be taking a bit of a risk when you don't hold the dice, so you'd best find a low-limit table to weather that. If you think you can climb Mt. Masterson, why not go for a little climb?

I need an assistant to follow my direction. That is the #1 thing that I am missing right now. A personal assistant. It would also help to have an assistant who is a strong perl programmer who understands both MacOSX and Windows 7 and knows how to set up computers and stuff. I need a follower when it comes to how the game should be played, and a leader when it comes to coding perl and making my schedule and taking care of all the ancillary tasks.

Sherlock Holmes needed Watson.

Quote: Ahigh

I've made the point in front of other dealers that I know more about the game than they do, and it's something that is generally accepted quickly even among dealers I have never met before. Nobody tells me that I'm wrong, it's just how it is. I put dealers, boxmen, and everybody in check pretty damn quick any time they try to tell me they know more than I do about a topic when they are wrong and I know more about it. I enjoy that kind of thing, but on the details of the game and knowledge of them, I'm not trying to come across as arrogant even though it may appear that way. The truth is that I care more about the details than pretty much anybody else out there, and that's why I know so much.

At the end of the day, nobody else is as passionate about the details as me. And trust me, that's not a slight on anyone. Going to the level of detail in this game that I go to is absolutely not something that makes me superior. It's pretty insane and even stupid from a normal person's perspective. There is absolutely a point of diminishing returns on how it could help a normal person, but I'm just way out there.

Hopefully this qualifies my point that I am not intending to come across as arrogant or superior. Just simply stating that I know more about this game than MOST people.

Anybody that wants to continue this argument, please feel free, but I think .. I mean I am pretty sure .. that nobody is going to step up and say that I'm wrong. And if somebody steps up and says "I know more about the game than you Ahigh" I will say "AWESOME" and "PLEASED TO MEET YOU!"

But that person is nowhere to be found, and the most still applies.

The above may be true, but it is certainly irrelevant. You may know more about the game, but I know ONE thing you apparently do not! Dice influencing under real casino rules in a real casino is not possible. Simple.

Quote: Buzzard

" But just in case some people think I'm being outwardly arrogant, it is an absolute fact that I know more about the game than most people including the pit crews and certainly everyone I have met from this forum. We could argue about it if you wanted to argue about it, but it's fact."

ARROGANT : Marked by or arising from a feeling or assumption of one's superiority toward others.

The defense rests.

Err, Shouldn't that read the prosecution rests?

I was never on that side of the court. Only time I ever wore a suit, I was referred to as " The Defendant" LOL

Quote: SOOPOO

The above may be true, but it is certainly irrelevant. You may know more about the game, but I know ONE thing you apparently do not! Dice influencing under real casino rules in a real casino is not possible. Simple.

No you don't know that, Doctor. I'll agree that it's simple. It would be easier for me to believe that. And I believe that a casino that wants to interfere with your control can have success in doing that. But the possibility remains from my perspective .. however remote that it is. There is no proof that I know of that it is impossible, so I don't see how you can know what you claim to know. If you could PROVE it to me, that would be awesome, but I think you're going to have a hard time proving your unfounded belief.

Quote: Ahigh

I've made the point in front of other dealers that I know more about the game than they do, and it's something that is generally accepted quickly even among dealers I have never met before... Just simply stating that I know more about this game than MOST people...Anybody that wants to continue this argument, please feel free,

Notwithstanding your seemingly encyclopedic knowledge of craps minutae, I would be willing to bet that a seasoned craps dealer would be a lot more adept at quickly doing the math in their head to calculate a payoff than you would be.

Have you practiced chip movement to set and payoff bets?

Didn't think so (unless you yourself were once a dealer).

That's a good point. I enjoy following the stick's calculations for complex payouts on the inside bets. And there are quite a few dealers who are more adept at coming up with those numbers than I am. Also, the motor memory of dealing and pre-calculating payouts to be smooth when the call is made is something that I do not have a dealer's level of motor memory. But I can absolutely deal and make correct payouts better than many dealers in this town. But I'm not a better-than-AVERAGE dealer in terms of actually being a good dealer as you are right that I don't have the motor skills and practice. But math? No I can do it, and I often correct dealer payouts. Very often. It something that I do .. especially if a player is being shorted.

Most dealers that meet me for the first time refuse to believe that I am not a dealer. They will then go on to asking me if I used to be a dealer and am now in the pit. I've been challenged to count up all the money in the bank when they thought I worked the pit. I'm not as fast at that as someone who does it all the time either, but I'm not slow either.

Quote: Ahigh

No you don't know that, Doctor. I'll agree that it's simple. It would be easier for me to believe that. And I believe that a casino that wants to interfere with your control can have success in doing that. But the possibility remains from my perspective .. however remote that it is. There is no proof that I know of that it is impossible, so I don't see how you can know what you claim to know. If you could PROVE it to me, that would be awesome, but I think you're going to have a hard time proving your unfounded belief.

I have no proof that there isn't a five year old that can roll 5 300 bowling games in a row.
I have no proof that the Wiz cannot bench press 1000 pounds.
I have no proof that the Venutian colony cannot beat the Martian colony in a game of bridge.
I have no proof that people cannot influence dice.

I live in the real world. I use my experiences and intellect and scientific training. I know, in the real world, without having proof, that the above 4 things cannot be accomplished. Simple.

(Everyone knows Martians are great at bridge)

Quote: SOOPOO

I have no proof that people cannot influence dice

Here is proof that people can influence dice. The legal status of this move is not yet determined.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VdOQUWzPzKg

Quote: teliot

Here is proof that people can influence dice. The legal status of this move is not yet determined.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VdOQUWzPzKg

I wasn't in the mood to type my whole disclaimer, which includes 'in a real casino using real casino rules', which to me means throwing the dice in the air, with both dice having to hit the back wall. Sure, i believe that if you slide the dice a couple of feet without hitting a back wall you could likely control dice. Not relevant.

I agree. I mean talk about proof ! youtube can beat roulette too !

Quote: teliot

Here is proof that people can influence dice. The legal status of this move is not yet determined.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VdOQUWzPzKg

C'mon, are you serious? That's proof?

Quote: MakingBook

C'mon, are you serious? That's proof?

To the extent that this move is used in practice to beat craps, yes.

Dice sliding at Wynn Resorts