amidnitespecial
amidnitespecial
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February 26th, 2010 at 5:19:59 PM permalink
Here's a dumb question:
If the house advantage on a pass line bet is over 1 percent, can't you just
place your money on the don't pass line and have an advantage?
teddys
teddys
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February 26th, 2010 at 6:47:39 PM permalink
No, because the 12 pushes.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
goatcabin
goatcabin
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February 27th, 2010 at 10:18:29 AM permalink
Quote: amidnitespecial

Here's a dumb question:
If the house advantage on a pass line bet is over 1 percent, can't you just
place your money on the don't pass line and have an advantage?



The house advantage on the don't pass/don't come is very close to that on the pass/come, due to the fact that DP/DC does not win (or lose) on a 12, while the pass/come does lose.

The "perfect 1980" for the "dark side" is almost, but not quite, the mirror image of that for the pass/come.

Here it is for rightside betting:

result ways comment
comeout win 440
comeout loss 220 660 comeout decisions
win on 6 125
loss on 6 150
win on 8 125
loss on 8 150
win on 5 88
loss on 5 132
win on 9 88
loss on 9 132
win on 4 55
loss on 4 110 1320 point decisions
win on 10 55 536 point wins
loss on 10 110 784 seven-outs
----
1980


If you add up all the winning ways, you get 976, against 1004 losing ways. This yields a win probability of .492929, loss probability of .507071, and the difference between those is the (in)famous .01414, or 1.414%.

For betting the so-called dark side, here is the distribution of expected results:

result ways comment
comeout loss 440
comeout win 165
comeout push 55 660 comeout decisions
loss on 6 125
win on 6 150
loss on 8 125
win on 8 150
loss on 5 88
win on 5 132
loss on 9 88
win on 9 132
loss on 4 55
win on 4 110 1320 point decisions
loss on 10 55 536 point loss
win on 10 110 784 seven-outs
----
1980


If you add up the wins, you get 949, against 976 losses and 55 pushes. There are two ways to figure the HA, depending on whether you consider the push bets in the divisor. Personally, I do not, so I get 949 / 1925 = .492987 for win probability and .507013, for an HA of .014026, or 1.4026%. If you consider the push bets as "risked", you get 1.364%. You will see both figures quoted.

The essential information is that you can expect to lose 28 units out of 1980 bets on the pass line and 27 units out of 1980 bets on the don't. However, that is a long-term average expectation and subject to considerable variance, of course.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
boymimbo
boymimbo
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February 27th, 2010 at 10:37:07 PM permalink
Shank's response is right.

But to simplify matters:

The pass has a HA of 1.414%.
Therefore, the Don't pass should have a Player advantage of 1.414%.
So the casino says "aha, on a 12, you don't win (you lose on 12 on the pass), you push." And that happens on 1/36 of comeout rolls.

1/36 = 2.778%

1.414 PA - 2.778% = 1.364% House advantage on don't pass.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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February 28th, 2010 at 1:01:45 AM permalink
Quote: amidnitespecial

Here's a dumb question:
If the house advantage on a pass line bet is over 1 percent, can't you just
place your money on the don't pass line and have an advantage?

Its NOT a dumb question at all. Its very sharp of you to think of this. Its just that others have already thought of it and the casinos were real sharp too. So they made the "Don'tPass" bet be not quite the mirror image of the PassLine bet. That little "not quite" is the 12 is a Push wrinkle and that little wrinkle makes the house have an advantage on the DontPass bets.
I tend to like the Don't-side partially for that teensy little difference in the edge and partly because once I am over the hurdle of that very first roll... I'm rooting for a Seven which is the most likeliest number to be rolled.
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