algle
algle
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April 22nd, 2012 at 6:20:36 PM permalink
A bunch of my colleagues want to start up a challenge to see which of them makes the best sports picks. Each will start with a nominal $1000, and each provides one $10 pick per day. Over time the running total should decide who makes the best picks.
My observation is that none of them is good enough to consistently beat the house edge on any sports bets. So I proposed entering their challenge with the same bet every day - the outcome of a coin toss. One of them will flip a coin, and I will call "heads" or "tails" - for a 1:1 payout.
Their egos tell them that they are smarter at sports betting than I am at calling a coin toss (no knowledge required of course). My goal is to demonstrate that a zero house edge coin flip is a better proposition than trying to beat a professional sports bookmaker's odds.
What does the forum think? Would you join this challenge with sports picks or the coin toss?
If nothing will change then I am nothing.
winmonkeyspit3
winmonkeyspit3
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April 22nd, 2012 at 7:43:11 PM permalink
I like this idea. I have no idea how knowledgeable your friends are, so all I can do is speculate about how they will fair, but I know personally I would choose the coin flip. I have bet $20 on NFL games with a friend using the Vegas lines 6 times and have won 5 of them, but this is just for fun and I know that in the long run it would even out. I'll take the 0% edge any day and hope that my variance will beat out their "skill".
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
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April 22nd, 2012 at 8:57:41 PM permalink
I did this for the NFL last season, see my blog for details. Expect your coin to have wide flucuations but settle at about the expected 50% over the season.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
WongBo
WongBo
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April 22nd, 2012 at 9:01:19 PM permalink
i would go with the coin toss. i like the odds better.
i guess that also explains why i prefer baccarat to the sports book...
In a bet, there is a fool and a thief. - Proverb.
slyther
slyther
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April 23rd, 2012 at 8:44:09 AM permalink
You have the edge in the coin-toss by not having to pay vig.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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April 23rd, 2012 at 9:43:42 AM permalink
Can the bets include horse racing, or any other non-futures sports bets that pay something other than 10-11?
algle
algle
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April 23rd, 2012 at 4:51:21 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Can the bets include horse racing, or any other non-futures sports bets that pay something other than 10-11?


Yes, and I would be very happy for any of the others to offer horse racing picks!
If nothing will change then I am nothing.
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