steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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July 30th, 2012 at 5:08:43 PM permalink
Alan, thanks but please don't do it on my account. Please don't rush. I need to head out to a family birthday party for my nephew so I'll be out of pocket.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
buzzpaff
buzzpaff
buzzpaff
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July 30th, 2012 at 5:10:12 PM permalink
What is Kansas ? About 450 miles wide ? Seems like 70 miles of nothing, then a bowling alley, then 63 miles to the next bowling alley ? Hey quit texting and DRIVE !
steeldco
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July 30th, 2012 at 5:11:08 PM permalink
Quote: 7craps


I show the -14% ROI to my investors

You show the -400% to your investors



There's exactly the issue that I mentioned. That method reduces the impact of losses. Keeps the fish on the hook.......
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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July 30th, 2012 at 5:11:38 PM permalink
Sorry. I'm gone. See ya tomorrow.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
buzzpaff
buzzpaff
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July 30th, 2012 at 5:12:42 PM permalink
Think I would have a better chance of getting a positive return if I invested with Bernie.
avargov
avargov
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July 30th, 2012 at 7:53:43 PM permalink
Placed my response in a blog post as it was WAY to long to put in a thread. I rambled on a bit, but I am tired, and such things happen after a long day.

Buzz, I am angry! There is NO bowling alley here!!!!
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
duckston09
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July 30th, 2012 at 11:50:36 PM permalink
Mustangsally, I didn't bet for or against Atlanta. I just found the losing streak interesting so I thought I'd share it with the community.
7craps
7craps
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July 31st, 2012 at 12:05:21 AM permalink
I took your data you placed in a few of your threads and stuck it in Excel since I saw a few errors in your data.
Nothing new.

I show a $318 profit from total wagers of $55,624 for a return of 0.005716957
In order to hit $1 Million with that return you need 3,144.65 more sessions equal to your current one.
Or about $174,918,238.99 in total wagers...

But you would rather place more faith in ROI formula results.
Let me try this.

Your largest Bankroll needed looks to be $963 from 7/15
(YTD profit from the previous day minus the days total bets. A negative number means you had to go into your pocket.)
$318/$963 *100 = 33.91% ROI. Looks good

Your results are that good???

But if you have a $2200 bankroll your ROI is only $318/$2200 *100 = 14.54%
This is not correct, I can see that. You have not risked $2200.

I want to see how fast you can make it to $1 Million with your 33% ROI.
Wait, you do not yet know your future cost of investment.
OK, easier question...
What would have to be your average bet to hit the $1Million with your current ROI of X%?

Even more confusing.

Now, back to baseball

and I see the Atlanta Braves won on a Monday, they broke the losing streak.

Sally predicted it in her last post!
I heard from her BF that they did indeed bet for Atlanta as they are in Vegas this week!

Who knew?!
DateDayAt Risk-DayYTD WageredBankroll Needed+130dogsOthersNet Day TotalYTD Profitreturn
4/26/2012Thursday523523-523315-10321221240.535%
4/27/2012Friday470993-258-100-160-260-48-4.834%
4/28/2012Saturday7931786-841-10017373251.400%
4/29/2012Sunday4442230-419-10072-28-3-0.135%
4/30/2012Monday5102740-513-150-110-260-263-9.599%
5/1/2012Tuesday3003040-56356115171-92-3.026%
5/2/2012Wednesday5343574-62627502751835.120%
5/3/2012Thursday4344008-25114210825043310.803%
5/4/2012Friday6354643-202189-1137650910.963%
5/5/2012Saturday5485191-3910310320671513.774%
5/6/2012Sunday450564126515410025496917.178%
5/7/2012Monday7576398212157179336130520.397%
5/8/2012Tuesday9157313390346-10336164122.439%
5/9/2012Wednesday55378661088-6-6-12162920.709%
5/10/2012Thursday10079661529-1000-100152919.194%
5/11/2012Friday6428608887-200-442-64288710.304%
5/12/2012Saturday528913635955342397128414.054%
5/13/2012Sunday300943698414016156144015.261%
5/14/2012Monday110210538338577-131446188617.897%
5/15/2012Tuesday300108381586-200116-84180216.627%
5/16/2012Wednesday700115381102170250420222219.258%
5/17/2012Thursday60012138162256116172239419.723%
5/18/2012Friday1149132871245135311446284021.374%
5/19/2012Saturday701139882139145-13312285220.389%
5/20/2012Sunday1039150271813-100-8-108274418.260%
5/21/2012Monday98516012175937-152-115262916.419%
5/22/2012Tuesday545165572084-100-13-113251615.196%
5/23/2012Wednesday573171301943-100203103261915.289%
5/24/2012Thursday1441727424750-144-144247514.328%
5/25/2012Friday525177991950-1000-100237513.343%
5/26/2012Saturday1089188881286-50-319-369200610.620%
5/27/2012Sunday912198001094-4004044201010.152%
5/28/2012Monday108120881929-100-107-20718038.635%
5/29/2012Tuesday7202160110831445720120049.277%
5/30/2012Wednesday446220471558220-346-12618788.518%
5/31/2012Thursday3382238515400-138-13817407.773%
6/1/2012Friday110224951630010010018408.180%
6/2/2012Saturday68323178115742-282-24016006.903%
6/3/2012Sunday102724205573-66-103-16914315.912%
6/4/2012Monday1332433812980-133-13312985.333%
6/5/2012Tuesday42324761875-100-75-17511234.535%
6/6/2012Wednesday170226463-5791748025413775.203%
6/7/2012Thursday104827511329-65-360-4259523.460%
6/8/2012Friday9052841647-20034-1667862.766%
6/9/2012Saturday165230068-866-300192-1086782.255%
6/10/2012Sunday4733054120545-273-2284501.473%
6/11/2012Monday214307552361451002456952.260%
6/12/2012Tuesday25231007443-100-152-2524431.429%
6/13/2012Wednesday121032217-767-136-126-2621810.562%
6/14/2012Thursday52232739-3411442403845651.726%
6/15/2012Friday0327395650005651.726%
6/16/2012Saturday85633595-291-100-79-1793861.149%
6/17/2012Sunday102834623-642-10082272211083.200%
6/18/2012Monday27134894837020020013083.748%
6/19/2012Tuesday60535499703020920915174.273%
6/20/2012Wednesday374358731143020020017174.786%
6/21/2012Thursday734366079830-278-27814393.931%
6/22/2012Friday036607143900014393.931%
6/23/2012Saturday22836835121114010024016794.558%
6/24/2012Sunday445372801234-300100-20014793.967%
6/25/2012Monday3933767310860-329-32911503.053%
6/26/2012Tuesday30037973850-100-200-3008502.238%
6/27/2012Wednesday78238755680-118-1187321.889%
6/28/2012Thursday5053926022717522840311352.891%
6/29/2012Friday374396347610909012253.091%
6/30/2012Saturday870405043556610016613913.434%
7/1/2012Sunday13574186134-30080050018914.517%
7/2/2012Monday600424611291100-200-10017914.218%
7/3/2012Tuesday300427611491-600-6017314.048%
7/4/2012Wednesday117043931561-49-452-50112302.800%
7/5/2012Thursday392443238380-392-3928381.891%
7/6/2012Friday6294495220932020052013583.021%
7/7/2012Saturday80045752558-300100-20011582.531%
7/8/2012Sunday31346065845-200-113-3138451.834%
7/14/2012Saturday78346848620-309-3095361.144%
7/15/2012Sunday147448322-938-3516002497851.625%
7/16/2012Monday20048522585-100-100-2005851.206%
7/17/2012Tuesday4404896214555-240-1854000.817%
7/18/2012Wednesday73849700-338443163607601.529%
7/19/2012Thursday6665036694030030010602.105%
7/20/2012Friday280506467800-280-2807801.540%
7/21/2012Saturday89251538-1120-668-6681120.217%
7/22/2012Sunday58352121-47130-60-30820.157%
7/23/2012Monday11352234-3101131131950.373%
7/24/2012Tuesday70252936-50751-60-91860.351%
7/25/2012Wednesday30053236-114-100-200-300-114-0.214%
7/26/2012Thursday40053636-5141120112-2-0.004%
7/27/2012Friday57654212-57801951951930.356%
7/28/2012Saturday86255074-669751942694620.839%
7/29/2012Sunday55055624-880-144-1443180.572%
Total 55624  201117318 
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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July 31st, 2012 at 5:37:34 AM permalink
Yesterday was a net winner with +350 and YTD now stands at -624. The +130dogs were a net winner for +45 and are now -115 for the YTD. The 2Xs plays were a net winner of +200 and its YTD is now -416.

Today's picks are:
Washington Nationals -140 (2 UNITS)
Baltimore Orioles 162
Miami Marlins 150
LA Angels of Anaheim -112
Toronto Blue Jays 104
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
mustangsally
mustangsally
mustangsally
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July 31st, 2012 at 7:42:08 AM permalink
http://drbobsports.com/essays.cfm?p=8
DR Bob article on Sports Betting as an Investment

"and with a bankroll of $8,705 that's an expected net of +$3969 after factoring in the cost of my service, which is a very good 39.7% expected return on your $10,000."
Simple math here $3969/$10,000
He does not add up, he does not show actual data, all the money wagered on all the games.
I do not agree with this method. But that is just me.

He goes on to show how his expected win is calculated from the number of expected games to be wagered on using his average win rate.
Again, calculating expected value is quite easy.

Good reading for most
I Heart Vi Hart
steeldco
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July 31st, 2012 at 8:02:07 AM permalink
Quote: 7craps

I took your data you placed in a few of your threads and stuck it in Excel since I saw a few errors in your data.
Nothing new.



Really? Nothing new? I started to try and determine where the supposed data errors are and the very first day on which we have different numbers is May 5th.
You show me winning 206 when in fact I won 103. I believe that it is YOUR data that is incorrect. When I find a bit of time I will look for the rest of your mistakes........
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
7craps
7craps
7craps
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July 31st, 2012 at 8:31:43 AM permalink
From data from your post

5/2/2012 275 0 275 Wednesday
5/3/2012 142 108 250 Thursday
5/4/2012 189 -113 76 Friday
5/5/2012 103 103 Saturday
5/6/2012 154 100 254 Sunday
5/7/2012 157 179 336 Monday
5/8/2012 346 -10 336 Tuesday
5/9/2012 -6 -6 Wednesday
5/10/2012 -100 0 -100 Thursday

I see 103 103 (not the same format as X, Y, Z, Day)
Your data shows 206 for May5 following the lines above and below (col 2 and col 3)
It should have shown 103 0 103 by your new claim. (or 0 103 103)
May9 shows the same poor formatting.
You meant -6 0 -6 or 0 -6 -6
Love your accounting techniques.

I placed your data into Excel so I could see it better.
Poor formatting makes it very difficult to verify any data set

Good Luck
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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July 31st, 2012 at 8:52:24 AM permalink
Quote: 7craps

From data from your post

5/2/2012 275 0 275 Wednesday
5/3/2012 142 108 250 Thursday
5/4/2012 189 -113 76 Friday
5/5/2012 103 103 Saturday
5/6/2012 154 100 254 Sunday
5/7/2012 157 179 336 Monday
5/8/2012 346 -10 336 Tuesday
5/9/2012 -6 -6 Wednesday
5/10/2012 -100 0 -100 Thursday

I see 103 103 (not the same format as X, Y, Z, Day)
Your data shows 206 for May5 following the lines above and below (col 2 and col 3)
It should have shown 103 0 103 by your new claim. (or 0 103 103)
May9 shows the same poor formatting.
You meant -6 0 -6 or 0 -6 -6
Love your accounting techniques.

I placed your data into Excel so I could see it better.
Poor formatting makes it very difficult to verify any data set

Good Luck



It should have shown as 0 103 103. So yes when I pasted, I should have checked and corrected the format. But there's a larger issue at play here. You noticed a difference. Chose to make an assumption. An incorrect one. And then decided to point a finger at me and somehow include a reference to my "accounting techniques"? Really? What do you think is wrong with that picture? It's obvious that you like to color info to your point of view. You in politics by some chance?
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
mustangsally
mustangsally
mustangsally
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July 31st, 2012 at 8:54:12 AM permalink
I find all this data and calculating ROI quite interesting.
Two very different methods returning very different results.

Here is my data table, I used 7craps table, fixed the errors in it that I saw, but I thought it was easy to see the errors for the 2 days in question

I show a 221 profit
0.40% return from the total bets made
21.35% ROI from the max invested.
Who is right?

and We need to balance our books!

DateDayAt Risk-DayYTD WageredBankroll Needed+130dogsOthersNet Day TotalYTD ProfitreturnROIMax Out of Pocket
4/26/2012Thursday523523-523315-10321221240.54%40.54%523
4/27/2012Friday470993-258-100-160-260-48-4.83%-9.18%523
4/28/2012Saturday7931786-841-10017373251.40%2.97%841
4/29/2012Sunday4442230-419-10072-28-3-0.13%-0.36%841
4/30/2012Monday5102740-513-150-110-260-263-9.60%-31.27%841
5/1/2012Tuesday3003040-56356115171-92-3.03%-10.94%841
5/2/2012Wednesday5343574-62627502751835.12%21.76%841
5/3/2012Thursday4344008-25114210825043310.80%51.49%841
5/4/2012Friday6354643-202189-1137650910.96%60.52%841
5/5/2012Saturday5485191-39103010361211.79%72.77%841
5/6/2012Sunday450564116215410025486615.35%102.97%841
5/7/2012Monday7576398109157179336120218.79%142.93%841
5/8/2012Tuesday9157313287346-10336153821.03%182.88%841
5/9/2012Wednesday5537866985-60-6153219.48%182.16%841
5/10/2012Thursday10079661432-1000-100143217.98%170.27%841
5/11/2012Friday6428608790-200-442-6427909.18%93.94%841
5/12/2012Saturday528913626255342397118712.99%141.14%841
5/13/2012Sunday300943688714016156134314.23%159.69%841
5/14/2012Monday110210538241577-131446178916.98%212.72%841
5/15/2012Tuesday300108381489-200116-84170515.73%202.73%841
5/16/2012Wednesday700115381005170250420212518.42%252.68%841
5/17/2012Thursday60012138152556116172229718.92%273.13%841
5/18/2012Friday1149132871148135311446274320.64%326.16%841
5/19/2012Saturday701139882042145-13312275519.70%327.59%841
5/20/2012Sunday1039150271716-100-8-108264717.61%314.74%841
5/21/2012Monday98516012166237-152-115253215.81%301.07%841
5/22/2012Tuesday545165571987-100-13-113241914.61%287.63%841
5/23/2012Wednesday573171301846-100203103252214.72%299.88%841
5/24/2012Thursday1441727423780-144-144237813.77%282.76%841
5/25/2012Friday525177991853-1000-100227812.80%270.87%841
5/26/2012Saturday1089188881189-50-319-369190910.11%226.99%841
5/27/2012Sunday91219800997-400404419139.66%227.47%841
5/28/2012Monday108120881832-100-107-20717068.17%202.85%841
5/29/2012Tuesday720216019861445720119078.83%226.75%841
5/30/2012Wednesday446220471461220-346-12617818.08%211.77%841
5/31/2012Thursday3382238514430-138-13816437.34%195.36%841
6/1/2012Friday110224951533010010017437.75%207.25%841
6/2/2012Saturday68323178106042-282-24015036.48%178.72%841
6/3/2012Sunday102724205476-66-103-16913345.51%158.62%841
6/4/2012Monday1332433812010-133-13312014.93%142.81%841
6/5/2012Tuesday42324761778-100-75-17510264.14%122.00%841
6/6/2012Wednesday170226463-6761748025412804.84%152.20%841
6/7/2012Thursday104827511232-65-360-4258553.11%101.66%841
6/8/2012Friday90528416-50-20034-1666892.42%81.93%841
6/9/2012Saturday165230068-963-300192-1085811.93%60.33%963
6/10/2012Sunday4733054110845-273-2283531.16%36.66%963
6/11/2012Monday214307551391451002455981.94%62.10%963
6/12/2012Tuesday25231007346-100-152-2523461.12%35.93%963
6/13/2012Wednesday121032217-864-136-126-262840.26%8.72%963
6/14/2012Thursday52232739-4381442403844681.43%48.60%963
6/15/2012Friday0327394680004681.43%48.60%963
6/16/2012Saturday85633595-388-100-79-1792890.86%30.01%963
6/17/2012Sunday102834623-739-10082272210112.92%104.98%963
6/18/2012Monday27134894740020020012113.47%125.75%963
6/19/2012Tuesday60535499606020920914204.00%147.46%963
6/20/2012Wednesday374358731046020020016204.52%168.22%963
6/21/2012Thursday734366078860-278-27813423.67%139.36%963
6/22/2012Friday036607134200013423.67%139.36%963
6/23/2012Saturday22836835111414010024015824.29%164.28%963
6/24/2012Sunday445372801137-300100-20013823.71%143.51%963
6/25/2012Monday393376739890-329-32910532.80%109.35%963
6/26/2012Tuesday30037973753-100-200-3007531.98%78.19%963
6/27/2012Wednesday78238755-290-118-1186351.64%65.94%963
6/28/2012Thursday5053926013017522840310382.64%107.79%963
6/29/2012Friday374396346640909011282.85%117.13%963
6/30/2012Saturday870405042586610016612943.19%134.37%963
7/1/2012Sunday135741861-63-30080050017944.29%186.29%963
7/2/2012Monday600424611194100-200-10016943.99%175.91%963
7/3/2012Tuesday300427611394-600-6016343.82%169.68%963
7/4/2012Wednesday117043931464-49-452-50111332.58%117.65%963
7/5/2012Thursday392443237410-392-3927411.67%76.95%963
7/6/2012Friday6294495211232020052012612.81%130.94%963
7/7/2012Saturday80045752461-300100-20010612.32%110.18%963
7/8/2012Sunday31346065748-200-113-3137481.62%77.67%963
7/14/2012Saturday78346848-350-309-3094390.94%45.59%963
7/15/2012Sunday147448322-1035-3516002496881.42%66.47%1035
7/16/2012Monday20048522488-100-100-2004881.01%47.15%1035
7/17/2012Tuesday440489624855-240-1853030.62%29.28%1035
7/18/2012Wednesday73849700-435443163606631.33%64.06%1035
7/19/2012Thursday66650366-303003009631.91%93.04%1035
7/20/2012Friday280506466830-280-2806831.35%65.99%1035
7/21/2012Saturday89251538-2090-668-668150.03%1.45%1035
7/22/2012Sunday58352121-56830-60-30-15-0.03%-1.45%1035
7/23/2012Monday11352234-1280113113980.19%9.47%1035
7/24/2012Tuesday70252936-60451-60-9890.17%8.60%1035
7/25/2012Wednesday30053236-211-100-200-300-211-0.40%-20.39%1035
7/26/2012Thursday40053636-6111120112-99-0.18%-9.57%1035
7/27/2012Friday57654212-6750195195960.18%9.28%1035
7/28/2012Saturday86255074-766751942693650.66%35.27%1035
7/29/2012Sunday55055624-1850-144-1442210.40%21.35%1035
I Heart Vi Hart
steeldco
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July 31st, 2012 at 9:26:57 AM permalink
mustangsally, first thank you for taking the time on this. now, if you would, take your table and change it where i would have a 2000 loss. then compare the two different %'s. my guess would be that my method of ROI would look much, much worse than the sporting world's method.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
mustangsally
mustangsally
mustangsally
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July 31st, 2012 at 10:14:27 AM permalink
Method#1: -2000/55624 = -3.60%

Method#2: Depending on the days we add the losses to, I get a range between -40% to -75%
Now, using Dr BoB's method.

You start with a 10,000 bankroll, but never risking all 10,000, a $2000 loss = -20% ROI
You start with a 5,000 bankroll, a $2000 loss = -40% ROI

I find it way easier to follow and project method #1. Just knowing your average
bet and winnings and number of games to play keeps the math simple and usable.
The other ROI method can not be projected out into the future except with lots
of math, really too much work.

For comparing different investments, I need more reading time.

I'm in Vegas Baby!
Being that I made my first 2 Baseball bets yesterday, and won both on Atlanta
(money line and run line)
This is kind of fun.
I like the Angles winning by 2 or more today.
Also Washington. (I should start my own thread, this one is yours)
That is only because I think the pitchers are really cute ;)
Off to be a tourist!

Sally
I still think the Wizard and ME are very handsome
handsome > cute
I Heart Vi Hart
buzzpaff
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buzzpaff
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July 31st, 2012 at 10:33:38 AM permalink
I do not know about cute . But I have often been told I have a face that was born for radio.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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July 31st, 2012 at 11:07:41 AM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

Method#1: -2000/55624 = -3.60%

Method#2: Depending on the days we add the losses to, I get a range between -40% to -75%
Now, using Dr BoB's method.

You start with a 10,000 bankroll, but never risking all 10,000, a $2000 loss = -20% ROI
You start with a 5,000 bankroll, a $2000 loss = -40% ROI

I find it way easier to follow and project method #1. Just knowing your average
bet and winnings and number of games to play keeps the math simple and usable.
The other ROI method can not be projected out into the future except with lots
of math, really too much work.

For comparing different investments, I need more reading time.

I'm in Vegas Baby!
Being that I made my first 2 Baseball bets yesterday, and won both on Atlanta
(money line and run line)
This is kind of fun.
I like the Angles winning by 2 or more today.
Also Washington. (I should start my own thread, this one is yours)
That is only because I think the pitchers are really cute ;)
Off to be a tourist!

Sally
I still think the Wizard and ME are very handsome
handsome > cute



Thanks Sally. As you see above, the financial ROI would actually appear better when there are gains and worse when there are losses. So, as 7craps stated he'd rather show the lower number. Of course, I imagine that is why the sports betting world took the ROI term to lend credibility, but at the same time, they changed the calculation. After all, why would a "client" follow someone with a negative 40% to 75% number rather than 3.6%? Of course they wouldn't. But the 40% to 70% loss is much closer to accurate than the 3.6%. Most services are losers and they want to use the lower number in order to keep the fish on the hook. They're okay with showing a smaller number when winning since it seldom occurs. That's just all my opinion of course. Except for the how an ROI is calculated.....

Another way to view it would be to use some of the stock portfolio software that is out there, enter daily transactions as if you were buying and selling stocks and see what the returns would look like.
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steeldco
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July 31st, 2012 at 11:16:56 AM permalink
Sally, I
I'm sorry. One other item, it's not difficult to use at all. Once you know what your ROI is then it can be applied whether you're betting $100 or $1,000,000.
Lastly, the 3.60% number is NOT comparable to any other published ROI and isn't that the purpose of these calculations? To be able to determine how best to use money?
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avargov
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July 31st, 2012 at 12:25:29 PM permalink
It is very comparable, for you are making multiple investments, not one long investment. I still think you are trying to use only your capital expense for cost, and also using the total gains and losses from multiple investments. The +.40% ROI is correct for what you are doing. Let's try this:

I have $1,000,000 to invest TOTAL.

I buy stocks a through j for 100k each

One year later I have $1,080,000 in total value for my portfolio.

I can say that I have an 8% ROI when investing in the stock market, which would be awesome right? Until we look DEEPER into the numbers.

Stock A is worth $1,062,000
Stocks B through J are worth $2,000 each.

Am I a stock market sharp? Or did I just get lucky once? I failed miserably 90% of the time. Would you pay to subscribe to my newsletter IF I showed 8% per year for 10 years?

That is why you have to look at each investment (wager) separately to determine your TRUE ROI!

(I know, this is an extreme example, but used to illustrate the point)

Your current formula is returning .4% for each $100 bet wagered. Period. End of story.

Edit: Wait, I said I was done with this. Good luck with your picks Steel!
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
steeldco
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July 31st, 2012 at 1:01:08 PM permalink
Quote: avargov

It is very comparable, for you are making multiple investments, not one long investment. I still think you are trying to use only your capital expense for cost, and also using the total gains and losses from multiple investments. The +.40% ROI is correct for what you are doing. Let's try this:

I have $1,000,000 to invest TOTAL.

I buy stocks a through j for 100k each

One year later I have $1,080,000 in total value for my portfolio.

I can say that I have an 8% ROI when investing in the stock market, which would be awesome right? Until we look DEEPER into the numbers.

Stock A is worth $1,062,000
Stocks B through J are worth $2,000 each.

Am I a stock market sharp? Or did I just get lucky once? I failed miserably 90% of the time. Would you pay to subscribe to my newsletter IF I showed 8% per year for 10 years?

That is why you have to look at each investment (wager) separately to determine your TRUE ROI!

(I know, this is an extreme example, but used to illustrate the point)

Your current formula is returning .4% for each $100 bet wagered. Period. End of story.

Edit: Wait, I said I was done with this. Good luck with your picks Steel!



Ah Alan, I'm sorry. I guess we just have to agree to disagree. In your above example, you may have failed miserably 90% of the time, but it doesn't matter. All that matters is what is in your account at the end of the period. The supposed "ROI" as calculated in the sports betting world is deceptive. I like real life facts. Fair comparisons. The sports betting means of calculation understates the velocity, and degree, upon which funds are lost in sports betting. It understates the losses, and I think it is done intentionally.

BTW, 8% per year over the last 10 years would be pretty good. I don't think that I would pay for it, but I think that there are many that would. Just look at how much is invested in S&P index funds......those funds take their fees.

Good Luck and I appreciate all the time you've taken to discuss this.
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July 31st, 2012 at 1:06:06 PM permalink
No problem my friend, was my pleasure. Sports betting is the only waging I even still mildly enjoy.

And I do look forward to the rest of the year to see how you end up!!!!
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
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July 31st, 2012 at 1:12:54 PM permalink
Quote: avargov

No problem my friend, was my pleasure. Sports betting is the only waging I even still mildly enjoy.

And I do look forward to the rest of the year to see how you end up!!!!



It is a pleasure. Thank you. Be careful out on the road!
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August 1st, 2012 at 6:35:59 AM permalink
We had a net loss yesterday of -218 which took our YTD to -842. The +130dogs had a net winner of +62 and its YTD is now -53. The 2Xs plays were a net loser for -280 and its YTD is now -696.

Today's picks are:
Baltimore Orioles 175
Milwaukee Brewers -240
Los Angeles Dodgers -165
Oakland Athletics -122 (2 UNITS)
Toronto Blue Jays -112
San Francisco Giants -170


Too many favorites, but it is what it is.........
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August 2nd, 2012 at 3:39:26 AM permalink
Well, yesterday was one of those days where my gut was right. Too many favorites. Would have been nice to inject some subjectivity yesterday, however, since I strictly adhere to just publishing what the picks are, I have found that my gut is more often wrong than right.

Anyway, we lost -691 and our YTD is now -1533. The +130dogs had a loser for -100 and its YTD is now -153. The 2Xs plays lost -244 and its YTD is now -940.
Since it seems that the 2Xs plays are causing the majority of the losses, I'm toying with the idea of just flipping the sign and going the other way on those, or change the way I weight the plays and turning the 2Xs plays into single units while changing the single units into 2Xs plays..............I don't know anything other than this sucks right now.

No picks today so I get a day to bring my blood to a boil..............
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buzzpaff
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August 2nd, 2012 at 2:07:05 PM permalink
" I'm toying with the idea of just flipping the sign and going the other way on those, "

A suggestion I made several months ago. LOL
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August 3rd, 2012 at 8:54:21 AM permalink
Maintaining current formula for now. Today's picks are (friggin' favorites again.....):
Boston Red Sox -180 (2 UNITS)
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FinsRule
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August 3rd, 2012 at 8:58:55 AM permalink
I have to give you credit for not giving up. I would have given up 2 months ago...
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August 3rd, 2012 at 9:04:11 AM permalink
Well thanks. It may come to that, but I kinda like to exhaust all hope first. Can't give up just yet.
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August 4th, 2012 at 8:47:12 AM permalink
We had a net loss yesterday of -360 and our YTD is now -1893. There was no +130dog and our 2Xs plays lost -360 and the YTD on that subset is now -1300.
Changing the way I weight the plays as of today.

Today's picks are:
Seattle Mariners 135 (2 UNITS)
Oakland Athletics -162
LA Angels of Anaheim 110 (2 UNITS)
Atlanta Braves -205
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steeldco
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August 5th, 2012 at 6:39:15 AM permalink
Yesterday was a net win of +123 and left our YTD at -1770. The +130dogs were a net winner for +270 and its YTD is now +117 and the 2Xs plays was +490 and its YTD is now -810.

Today's picks are:
Toronto Blue Jays 151 (2 UNITS)
Miami Marlins 200
Baltimore Orioles 190 (2 UNITS)
Houston Astros 200 (2 UNITS)


Nice to see all dogs......could be a very big day in either direction......
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Beardgoat
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August 5th, 2012 at 8:44:58 AM permalink
Any chance you ever reveal your formula? I don't understand how you could put 2 units on the Astros today. They are awful. They're starting pitcher is 0-7 with an ERA above 7 in his last 10 starts. And they're playing the braves who have a lineup of left handed hitters to face this right handed pitcher?
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August 5th, 2012 at 9:15:05 AM permalink
Beardgoat,
It would not be likely that I would reveal my formula since either it ends up being a loser and therefore useless to anyone, or it proves to be a winner and therefore having value that I would not want to just give away. I gues the third possibility would be one of mediocre results at which point I might publish it.

Although you are correct about Norris and his last 10 starts, he has actually pitched fairly well in his last 2 starts going 13 innings, giving up 4 runs, and striking out 10. In addition they beat Atlanta yesterday ( which cost me). Bottom line is that the formula I use gives greater weighting to recent games.

Thanks!
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buzzpaff
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August 5th, 2012 at 9:39:12 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

I have to give you credit for not giving up. I would have given up 2 months ago...




4-25 is when you should have quit !


OOPs my error You did quit then and started all over LOL Wish my bookie would give me a do-over.
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August 5th, 2012 at 10:48:02 AM permalink
Quote: steeldco

Beardgoat,
It would not be likely that I would reveal my formula since either it ends up being a loser and therefore useless to anyone, or it proves to be a winner and therefore having value that I would not want to just give away. I gues the third possibility would be one of mediocre results at which point I might publish it.

Although you are correct about Norris and his last 10 starts, he has actually pitched fairly well in his last 2 starts going 13 innings, giving up 4 runs, and striking out 10. In addition they beat Atlanta yesterday ( which cost me). Bottom line is that the formula I use gives greater weighting to recent games.

Thanks!



While I appreciate you doing this study and posting your picks everyday, I am beginning to think there is not much of a formula. You said the formuls gives greater weight to recent games well the Astros are 3-19 in their last 22 games. Hopefully this works out for you though because wether or not you have a successful formula I'd still like for you to win money
steeldco
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August 5th, 2012 at 11:45:07 AM permalink
Beardgoat,
You are absolutely entitled to your opinion and I wish you all the luck in the world. At this time, Houston is losing 1 to 0 and you will probably be right. There's a reason that they are a big dog in this game. However, I would like to point out that Norris has struck out 6 while giving up 3 hits and one run on a homer. Not too bad. He may yet get killed, but not too bad so far.
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steeldco
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August 6th, 2012 at 3:42:13 AM permalink
Yesterday was a net win of +382 and our YTD is now -1388. Again, it feels great when you pick a big dog and it hits. It never ceases to amaze me. I wish there were a way to bottle it. The +130dogs were +382 and its YTD is now +499. The 2Xs plays were a +482 and its YTD is now -328.

Today's picks are:
Washington Nationals -170
Colorado Rockies 160 (2 UNITS)
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steeldco
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August 7th, 2012 at 3:16:14 AM permalink
Luv them dogs. Yesterday was a net win of +420 which left our YTD at -968. The +130dogs were a net winner for +320 and its YTD is now +819. Even the 2Xs plays are making a bit of a comeback with a net win of +320 and its YTD is now -8.

Yesterday made the 3rd. consecutive winning day. Our longest has been a streak of 8 days and our most typical has been 4 days. So.........the trend would be that we eke out a win today and probably lose tomorrow. We'll see....

Today's picks are:
Boston Red Sox -114
LA Angels of Anaheim -135
Colorado Rockies 155
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steeldco
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August 8th, 2012 at 6:10:57 AM permalink
Shoot......thought that we'd have hit a winner yesterday. Good thing that I'm just going by the formula because without it, I would have been all over the Angels, behind C.J. Wilson, for a bunch.

Anyway, yesterday was a net loss of -94 and our YTD is now -1062. We did have another winner with the +130dogs though and that was for +155 and its YTD is now +974. There were no 2Xs dogs.

Today's picks are:
Minnesota Twins 125
Cincinnati Reds -129
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steeldco
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August 9th, 2012 at 6:22:05 AM permalink
We went 0 for 2 yesterday with a loss of -229. Our YTD is now -1291. There were no +130dogs or 2Xs plays.

Only 1 pick today (I guess its time to drive beardgoat nuts again) and it is:
Houston Astros 164 (2 UNITS)
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Beardgoat
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August 9th, 2012 at 6:47:13 AM permalink
Well you have to admit it doesn't seem logical that you tell me your formula is based on recent games, and then you bet 2 units on a team that lost 4 in a row and 23 of its last 26 games. The Astros are a historically bad team. Your formula seems like a few roulette formulas I've seen.... 4 reds in a row? It has to be black this time!
steeldco
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August 9th, 2012 at 7:21:58 AM permalink
Beardgoat,
I had said that it was weighted more heavily on recent games. It takes into account many variables, including many variables as to how the opponent is playing. This game has Houston at home as a good sized dog. There is no promise of a winner. Just worth a wager.

Furthermore, if I were to extend your thinking then I would never be wagering on a dog.........it'd be nothing but favorites.....yea...that'll work.
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steeldco
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August 9th, 2012 at 5:17:18 PM permalink
Yo Beardgoat, your posts caused me to take a look at my list of +130dogs plays by team. Below are the results by team. You were right regarding Houston.
It looks like I need to start excluding them. Apologies for this list only containing the +130dogs plays, as opposed to a list containing all the dogs picked.


Row Labels Sum of Result
Arizona DiamondBacks -150
Atlanta Braves 40
Baltimore Orioles 438
Boston Red Sox 219
Chicago Cubs -441
Chicago White Sox 230
Cincinnati Reds -200
Cleveland Indians 266
Colorado Rockies 260
Houston Astros -1084
Kansas City Royals 79
LA Angels of Anaheim -45
Los Angeles Dodgers 30
Miami Marlins -158
Minnesota Twins 176
New York Mets 189
Oakland Athletics 385
Philadelphia Phillies 150
Pittsburgh Pirates -92
San Diego Padres 275
San Francisco Giants 12
Seattle Mariners 536
Tampa Bay Rays 35
Texas Rangers -100
Toronto Blue Jays -121
Washington Nationals 45
Grand Total 974
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Beardgoat
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August 9th, 2012 at 5:32:33 PM permalink
No hard feelings steel. Like I said I enjoy the fact that you take time to do this everyday and put your stones on the line for all to see. I was just giving you my opinion on the Astros and it looks like you discovered some pretty poor betting results on them.
steeldco
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August 10th, 2012 at 6:29:11 AM permalink
Thanks and really do appreciate it. There would seem to be a reason to leave a team or two out of any selections. I think...........I need to determine how to best handle this, but thanks again.
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steeldco
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August 10th, 2012 at 6:38:45 AM permalink
We had a loss yesterday for -200. Our YTD is now -1491. The +130dogs and 2Xs plays subsets were each -200 losers and their YTD's are +774 and -208 respectively.

Today's picks are:
New York Yankees -133
Baltimore Orioles -128
Detroit Tigers 124 (2 UNITS)
Washington Nationals -120
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steeldco
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August 11th, 2012 at 4:49:08 AM permalink
It doesn't feel quite as good as hitting a couple of large dogs, but 4 and 0 does indeed feel pretty good. We were a net winner yesterday for +548 which put our YTD at -943. There were no +130dogs and the 2Xs play won for +248 and its YTD is now +40.

The win yesterday came after 3 consecutive losses. Again, since this seems to be streaky, I would expect a net win today. However, there are only 2 picks:
New York Mets -105 (2 UNITS)
Detroit Tigers -142


Mostly importantly, we're back in the black since 04/26. Not by much, but we'll take it. This is key since staying in the black may, MAY, indicate to me that I should continue to refine and build upon what I have.
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duckston09
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August 11th, 2012 at 9:51:02 AM permalink
New York Yankees OVER 10 +105 vs Toronto Blue Jays
Chicago Cubs +127 vs Cincinnati Reds
Cleveland Indians +118 vs Boston Red Sox
Kansas City Royals +121 vs Baltimore Orioles
steeldco
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August 11th, 2012 at 11:10:40 AM permalink
Just for grins and giggles. No opinions on totals. Don't like the Cubs. Cleveland and KC are OK..
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duckston09
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August 12th, 2012 at 4:48:15 AM permalink
Kansas City Royals +116 vs Baltimore Orioles
San Diego Padres +159 vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Philadelphia Phillies +119 vs St. Louis Cardinals
Tampa Bay Rays -118 vs Minnesota Twins
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