Predict the exact score of the Super Bowl and win a copy of my book.
February 5th, 2010 at 1:35:13 PM
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As the title said, submit your prediction of the Super Bowl before the kickoff, and if you're right, I'll send you an autographed copy of my book, Gambling 102. You must specify the teams. In the unlikely event more than 5 people are correct, then I will determine 5 winners randomly.
For the record, and as an example, my prediction is Colts 27, Saints 24.
For the record, and as an example, my prediction is Colts 27, Saints 24.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 5th, 2010 at 1:47:03 PM
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Colts 27
Saints 34
Thanks for the chance to win your book!
Saints 34
Thanks for the chance to win your book!
February 5th, 2010 at 1:48:09 PM
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Only because I'm an anarchist, and that I'll watch the game primarily for the commericals, I'll guess: Colts 24, Saints 27. :)
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
February 5th, 2010 at 1:52:03 PM
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Colts 34
Saints 24
Saints 24
February 5th, 2010 at 2:00:15 PM
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Saints 28, Colts 27.
February 5th, 2010 at 2:18:27 PM
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Colts 41, Saints 34
February 5th, 2010 at 2:22:17 PM
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Colts 31, Saints 27
February 5th, 2010 at 2:29:30 PM
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Colts 38
Saints 20
Saints 20
To err is human.
To air is Jordan.
To arrr is pirate.
February 5th, 2010 at 3:24:47 PM
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Saints 35
Colts 31
Colts 31
Vote for Nobody 2020!
February 5th, 2010 at 3:39:00 PM
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Jeez, I bought it last week.
Colts 31, Saints 17.
Colts 31, Saints 17.
A falling knife has no handle.
February 5th, 2010 at 4:30:06 PM
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Even though the EV of this is pretty low - (No Offense Wizard!) but about a 1 in 300 chance to win your autograph (I already have the book), I'm going to guess:
Colts 38
Saints 24
Colts 38
Saints 24
February 5th, 2010 at 4:32:35 PM
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Saints 34,
Colts 31
Colts 31
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
February 5th, 2010 at 4:35:11 PM
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Yes, I know it ain't worth much. However, I think it is more like 1 in 100, if you stick to key totals for each team. In fact, I think I'll look into it. Thanks, by the way, for buying my book. I heard somebody out there bought a copy.
Last edited by: Wizard on Feb 6, 2010
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 5th, 2010 at 4:41:12 PM
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Colts 28, Saints 24
February 5th, 2010 at 4:55:17 PM
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Quote: WizardYes, I know it ain't worth much. However, I think it is more like 1 in 100, if you stick to key totals for each team. In fact, I think I'll look into it.
Okay, I looked at every NFL game since 1983, except the 2009 postseason, which I haven't added to my database yet. Here is my basic strategy for picking the exact outcome:
1. Assume the favorite kicks 2 field goals.
2. Asssume the underdog kicks 1 field goal.
3. Using the total and spread, estimate the total points of each team. For example, in we use a total of 57 and a spread of -5 for the Superbowl, letting c=Colts points, and s=Saints points then...
(1) c+s=57
(2) c-5=s
Substituting equation (2) in equation (1):
c+(c-5)=57
2c-5=57
2c=62
c=31
s=31-5=26
4. Subtract the field goal points from each. In the Superbowl example, this would leave colts = 25 touchdown points, saints = 23 touchdown points.
5. Divide touchdown points by 7, to get estimated touchdowns. C=3.57 TD, S=3.29 TD
6. Round the estimated touchdowns to the nearest integer. C=4, S=3.
7. Following this method, we get for total points C=4*7+2*3=34, S=3*7+1+3=24.
Using this method, over 6696 games there would have been 69 correct picks, for a success rate of 1.03%.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 5th, 2010 at 5:09:28 PM
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Colts- 31
Saints-24
What is the Wizard's predicted score?
Saints-24
What is the Wizard's predicted score?
February 5th, 2010 at 6:37:32 PM
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SAINTS 38
COLT 31
COLT 31
Be careful when you follow the masses, the M is sometimes silent.
February 5th, 2010 at 7:31:07 PM
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Colts 31
Saints 17
Saints 17
Insurance is closed.
February 5th, 2010 at 7:35:45 PM
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Colts: 40
Saints: 23
Saints: 23
February 5th, 2010 at 8:43:23 PM
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Colts 38
Saints 31
Saints 31
February 5th, 2010 at 8:58:42 PM
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Saints 27
Colts 20
Colts 20
February 5th, 2010 at 9:50:16 PM
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Colts 34
Saints 24
Saints 24
February 5th, 2010 at 10:43:38 PM
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Colts 30
Saints 27
Saints 27
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You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
February 6th, 2010 at 12:03:34 AM
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Colts 45 Saints 17
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
February 6th, 2010 at 1:51:10 AM
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I got nothing, so giving it to the oddsmakers. No dog in the fight either.
If the o/u is 57, the 5 pt spread favoring Colts would fit like this: 32 to 25
that doesnt sound like a football score, so let's make it
Colts 30
Saints 24
If the o/u is 57, the 5 pt spread favoring Colts would fit like this: 32 to 25
that doesnt sound like a football score, so let's make it
Colts 30
Saints 24
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
February 6th, 2010 at 1:52:16 AM
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Colts 38, Saints 30
February 6th, 2010 at 3:51:09 AM
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colts 24
saints 21
saints 21
February 6th, 2010 at 9:04:12 AM
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Knowing Very little about the NFL, Ill take a shot at
Colts 24
saints 12
Colts 24
saints 12
[This space is intentionally left blank]
February 6th, 2010 at 9:39:35 AM
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Saints 31
Colts 28
Colts 28
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
February 6th, 2010 at 6:09:55 PM
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Colts 31
Saints 16
Saints 16
February 6th, 2010 at 7:35:48 PM
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Colts 35
Saints 24
Saints 24
February 6th, 2010 at 9:58:09 PM
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18-29
Colts-Saints
Colts-Saints
http://www.crapsbaseball.com/
Full launch soon!
February 6th, 2010 at 10:10:46 PM
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Colts 31
Saints 20
Saints 20
February 6th, 2010 at 11:38:37 PM
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Colts 31
Saints 24.
Thanks. Love your websites and newsletters.
Saints 24.
Thanks. Love your websites and newsletters.
February 7th, 2010 at 2:25:57 AM
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Saints 28, Colts 24.
February 7th, 2010 at 2:05:37 PM
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Somebody has to cover the Wizard's prediction.
Colts 27
Saints 24
Colts 27
Saints 24
February 7th, 2010 at 2:30:28 PM
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Colts 38 Saints 24
February 7th, 2010 at 2:33:18 PM
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Saints 42
Colts 17
Colts 17
February 7th, 2010 at 3:18:16 PM
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Colts 3 Saints 0
February 7th, 2010 at 3:28:27 PM
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Saints 24
Colts 20
Colts 20
"Who would have thought a good little girl like you could destroy my beautiful wickedness!"
February 7th, 2010 at 6:46:51 PM
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Two people got it backwards. Great game!!!
-----
You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
February 7th, 2010 at 6:49:25 PM
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Great game... Great effort by the Saints. Last I looked the money line was +275.
To err is human.
To air is Jordan.
To arrr is pirate.
February 7th, 2010 at 6:49:53 PM
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31-17 Saints - Hey, the Wizard didn't give a deadline to guess...
February 7th, 2010 at 6:51:01 PM
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Shoot, he did say before the kickoff. I should have posted before the last Saints kickoff...
February 7th, 2010 at 7:06:58 PM
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When the score was 24-17, I had a shot at it (I picked 24-20) ... really ... a classic game, great fun to watch start to finish.
--Dorothy
--Dorothy
"Who would have thought a good little girl like you could destroy my beautiful wickedness!"
February 7th, 2010 at 7:07:23 PM
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Backwards winner!!
Insurance is closed.
February 7th, 2010 at 8:00:43 PM
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I'm not sure it really happened.
I mean, saying "The Saints won the Super Bowl" sounds too much like "6:5 21 is better than 3:2 BJ," or "The Martingale is a good system." It just doesn't make sense!
I mean, saying "The Saints won the Super Bowl" sounds too much like "6:5 21 is better than 3:2 BJ," or "The Martingale is a good system." It just doesn't make sense!
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
February 7th, 2010 at 9:53:07 PM
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Thanks to all who tried. Who could have guessed the Saints would win by 14? Still, a great game. Congratulations to the Saints.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 7th, 2010 at 10:28:34 PM
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congratulations to the saints! great game. one of the few super bowls that didn't put me to sleep. two of the teams that started the season strong ended up facing eachother for the title.
p.s. and thanks to the wizard for making it even more exciting with this contest.
p.s. and thanks to the wizard for making it even more exciting with this contest.
February 7th, 2010 at 10:52:49 PM
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A very good game. I lost about $300 on my bets overall which were heavily slanted towards the colts, but still had a great time watching it.
Thanks to the Wizard for holding this contest. I'd definitely welcome more contests in the future.
Thanks to the Wizard for holding this contest. I'd definitely welcome more contests in the future.
