Sportbook Hedge Real Madrid Question
March 18th, 2012 at 11:38:37 AM
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Right now... Real Madrid is going to play CF Malaga
The current lines are:
Real Madrid -539
CF Malaga +1447
Draw +779
If the game ends in a Tie, then all bets on Real Madrid and all bets on CF Malaga are LOSS, only DRAW wins.
If a guy did a bunch of parlays and the final game on all of them is Real Madrid
Adding up all of his plays, he is risking 845
If Real Madrid wins, then he would collect 1165
Given the current lines.... What would be the optimal hedge?
The current lines are:
Real Madrid -539
CF Malaga +1447
Draw +779
If the game ends in a Tie, then all bets on Real Madrid and all bets on CF Malaga are LOSS, only DRAW wins.
If a guy did a bunch of parlays and the final game on all of them is Real Madrid
Adding up all of his plays, he is risking 845
If Real Madrid wins, then he would collect 1165
Given the current lines.... What would be the optimal hedge?
March 18th, 2012 at 11:55:48 AM
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The optimal hedge is no hedge.
Why hedge at all? Ride the original bet to the end- unless it is a "life changing" sum of money.
As someone who had been known to book a few bets, I love it when my clients hedge.
Why hedge at all? Ride the original bet to the end- unless it is a "life changing" sum of money.
As someone who had been known to book a few bets, I love it when my clients hedge.
"I don't have a gambling problem. I have a financial problem."
March 18th, 2012 at 11:58:59 AM
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I agree 100% that not hedging generally is the best play. But when I heard the risk/win and then saw the current lines... My instinct was to say throw 50 on Malagata... and say 100 on draw
March 18th, 2012 at 12:06:17 PM
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You are risking $845 to win $1165 on a -539 favorite.
If flat betting, you would have to risk $6279 to win $1165. You are in an excellent position right now. Good luck!
If flat betting, you would have to risk $6279 to win $1165. You are in an excellent position right now. Good luck!
"I don't have a gambling problem. I have a financial problem."
March 18th, 2012 at 12:19:20 PM
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That's very true.
Lines shifted
CF MALAGA +1550
REAL MADRID -556
Draw +803
Lines shifted
CF MALAGA +1550
REAL MADRID -556
Draw +803
March 18th, 2012 at 12:20:46 PM
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Quote: minnesotajoeI agree 100% that not hedging generally is the best play. But when I heard the risk/win and then saw the current lines... My instinct was to say throw 50 on Malagata... and say 100 on draw
Sorry, with new linews you have to put 70.67 on Malaga and 129.14 on draw
March 18th, 2012 at 12:27:58 PM
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Quote: edwardSorry, with new linews you have to put 70.67 on Malaga and 129.14 on draw
Thanks
200 hedge hmmm....
Well Thanks.. but you know what... You have to live like Man, You have to die like Man.
NO HEDGE!
March 18th, 2012 at 12:31:41 PM
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Quote: minnesotajoeThanks
200 hedge hmmm....
Well Thanks.. but you know what... You have to live like Man, You have to die like Man.
NO HEDGE!
Yes, You would win either way about ~ 115$.
I have also betted on this match albeit against Real win. Lets see what happens...
March 19th, 2012 at 2:54:10 PM
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1-1 draw. Ouch!
I guess my advice really sucked! Sorry.
I guess my advice really sucked! Sorry.
"I don't have a gambling problem. I have a financial problem."
