Team to kickoff first in Super Bowl

One prop you see every year is team to kickoff first. Here are the lines for this year at Pinnacle:

Giants: +228
Patriots: -275

I can't find data on this, but somebody told me that the Patriots always defer when they win the flip. Meanwhile, the Giants usually accept the first possession when they win the flip. I'm told there were two exceptions this year, one in a regular season game (I don't know which) and one against the SF in their last game.

I'm not sure how often each time won the flip, but let's assume the Giants won it 9.5 times out of the 19 games they played this season, and accepted the ball 7.5 times. Let's assume the Patriots always defer. Then the probability of the Patriots kicking off will be:

pr(Pats win flip) + pr(Giants win flip)*pr(Giants take the ball) = .5 + .5*(7.5/9.5) = 0.8947.

A fair line on the Patriots kicking off would thus be -850. However, one only has to lay 275. Is there something I'm not seeing?

Discuss.

it seems to be a good bet ...

i just checked the lines on an european sports book and they have them as:

Giants: 1.3 => -333.33
Patriots: 3.2 => +220

which are the lines for catching the first ball...that's why the numbers are reversed. and this site is taking more rake. still a good bet if your numbers are valid. i'll place a bet on it. thanks for the tip

ps: how often did the Giants take the ball post season ? maybe they changed their style in these games already ? just a wild guess...

Quote: gameterror

thanks for the tip

Don't consider it a tip. There must be something I'm not seeing about it.

One thing to take under advisement is the LAST game the Giants played they deferred. In that game they were 2.5-point underdogs and in this one they are 3-point underdogs. For whatever reason they deferred against SF they might defer again in the Super Bowl.

That's why I posted it, to discuss what the Giants are likely to do if they win the flip.

see my post scriptum: how did they play there most recent games if they won the coin-toss ?
also your point about the SF game is valid. they might change their strategy when declared a underdog.
and i did read your initial post wrong. i thought you were talking about there last game in regular season. (sorry english isn't my native tounge as you might have guessed already).

edit:
checked the playbook of their post season (they won coin toss twice):

vs ATL: NYG wins toss, elects to Receive
vs SF: NYG wins the coin toss and elects to defer

Quote: Wizard

Is there something I'm not seeing?

Discuss.

Great question.

It may have something to do with who chooses what for the second half.
Whoever wins the coin toss has choices, not just if they want to receive the kick.
I am not an expert but this is from wikipedia

"Start of halves
The game begins with a coin toss to determine which team will kick off to begin the game and which goal each team will defend.[12] The options are presented again to start the second half; the choices for the first half do not automatically determine the start of the second half. The referee conducts the coin toss with the captains (or sometimes coaches) of the opposing teams. The team that wins the coin toss has three options:[12]

They may choose whether to kick or receive the opening kickoff.
They may choose which goal to defend.
They may choose to defer the first choice to the other team and have first choice to start the second half.[13]

Whatever the first team chooses, the second team has the option on the other choice (for example, if the first team elects to receive at the start of the game, the second team can decide which goal to defend).


At the start of the second half, the options to kick, receive, or choose a goal to defend are presented to the captains again. The team which did not choose first to start the first half (or which deferred its privilege to choose first) now gets first choice of options"

Check to see what they do inside a dome. I have a feeling that New England prefers having the wind to their backs in the 4th quarter. In a dome, that would be moot.

The Giants might want to get after the Patriots early, defer and hope the Pats decide to receive. The Pats won't to kick first knowing the Giants would also take first possession in the second half, so I'd expect a defer Giants choice would lead to the Pats kicking off, IF you think they'd choose to defer.

A trawl of some of the pre-game talking heads might give you an insight.

Deferring makes sense, because it guarantees you the first posession in the second half. That's a good thing if you're behind by halftime. It's not a big thing, however.

Otherwise you may want the wind on your side in the 2nd and 4th quarters, when field goals can be more important, even crucial. but the Superbowl this year will be played indoors.

Quote: guido111

They may choose whether to kick or receive the opening kickoff.
They may choose which goal to defend.
They may choose to defer the first choice to the other team and have first choice to start the second half.[13]

Though it looks like there are several choices, the only two REAL choices are receive or defer. Almost never has a team decided to choose the goal to defend (because then the other team would choose to recieve, and then since that team has first choice in the 2nd half, to receive again). Same thing to choose to "kick"; you'd be giving the ball to the other team, and then they'd choose to take it in the second half. Recently (last 10 years?) a player accidentally said "kick" and not "defer", and the team indeed lost the ball there and to start the second half. So you want to receive or defer in the first half, and only receive in the second half.

As for the goal defense, if there was a hurricane force wind in one direction, you might think that it would be better to choose the goal to defend. But since they flip after each quarter, it is not a measurable advantage (at least when compared with giving the ball to your opponents twice - basically a conceded turnover). Ironically, the (quasi sudden death) Overtime is the only time you might choose to pick which goal to defend if there were indeed horrible wind conditions, since OT's would have to play 15 minutes before flipping the field, and perhaps you'd think you could score before that.

Double post, sorry, but I'd say the odds are tighter because you look at what NYG did LAST time, and considering they won, perhaps Coughlin will do it again.

This bet is one that "perhaps" someone with inside information can beat. It is not beyond the realm of possibilities that a reporter had an off the record conversation with a coach who said--- "Of course I'd take the ball against an offensive powerhouse like the Pats", or , "I would always defer against a team with a pass rush like the Giants". That would make the bet 100% if you bet on the Giants receiving the ball.

Giants are going to want to keep Brady off the field. I say they take the ball.

Quote: SOOPOO

This bet is one that "perhaps" someone with inside information can beat. It is not beyond the realm of possibilities that a reporter had an off the record conversation with a coach who said--- "Of course I'd take the ball against an offensive powerhouse like the Pats", or , "I would always defer against a team with a pass rush like the Giants". That would make the bet 100% if you bet on the Giants receiving the ball.

I doubt a coach would reveal their strategy to a reporter, even if pretty obvious. You can see on TV how coaches cover their mouths with a piece of paper when they talk, evidently to prevent lip readers with binoculars in the stands from telling the other team what they are saying. So, secrecy seems to be taken pretty seriously.

On the other hand, this would be juicy inside information if somebody had a connection to one of the coaches.

Quote: FinsRule

Giants are going to want to keep Brady off the field. I say they take the ball.

They are going to have to let them start with the ball one half or the other. However, I've heard the theory that they won't want to let the Pats score first and then play from behind. Personally, I poo-poo these psychological arguments as effective, but know teams make decisions for bad reasons up to the highest levels.

Quote: cclub79

Recently (last 10 years?) a player accidentally said "kick" and not "defer", and the team indeed lost the ball there and to start the second half. So you want to receive or defer in the first half, and only receive in the second half.

This happened to my team in high school. We played in the lowest division in the state (1A 8-man) since we were so small, and I'm pretty sure for years the refs had done the coin flip at the beginning of the game, and whoever won the flip would just say "kick or receive" and then they would reverse it at half time, much more simplistic than the "defer" procedure. Now technically I think the rule book was written the same way as the NFL one, but the refs at our level were not exactly the most highly-trained individuals so probably no one really cared. But before one game the other team won the flip and said "defer." My buddy and I were both captains but he was the one elected to speak in the pre-game meeting, and said we'd kick off since we wanted the ball in the second half. Lo and behold, we ended up kicking off to start both halves since we didn't understand the rules. Even our coach didn't know what was going on, since for his entire coaching career at our school (which spanned a good 5 or 6 years) they just reversed the decision at the beginning of the 2nd half no matter what.

Anyway, just a personal aside there. I say my buddy made the mistake to defer blame from myself, but I probably would have done the same thing, haha. From that point onward we figured it out.

According to ESPN:
Amazing but true: The NFC team has won 14 consecutive coin tosses

There was an AFL championship that went into overtime. I forget the teams involved, but one coach told his players to pick one specific side because he wanted the wind at their backs, even if they had to kick the ball. So they win the toss, and the player in charge says "we'll kick the ball" rather than "we pick the east side." So they kicked first, and the other team picked the side the first team wanted :)

I forget what happened next.

Quote: slyther

According to ESPN:
Amazing but true: The NFC team has won 14 consecutive coin tosses

Do they show the breakdown?
It would be more interesting to see how many of the 14 were because the NFC actually called the winning flip.

I read that in 2008 Brady was injured on their first possession after electing to receive and, since then, N. E. has won the coin toss 28 times and deferred every time

guido: it did not.
john: yes I read that too.

Quote: AcesAndEights

Lo and behold, we ended up kicking off to start both halves since we didn't understand the rules.

That's an amusing story. Were there any arguments between the coaches and refs? Did the ref warn you that you might be making a mistake when you chose to kick?

I agree, the decision should just be "kick or receive," with the understanding the other team does you chose in the second half.

Quote: Wizard

That's an amusing story. Were there any arguments between the coaches and refs? Did the ref warn you that you might be making a mistake when you chose to kick?

I agree, the decision should just be "kick or receive," with the understanding the other team does you chose in the second half.

If I remember correctly, our coach argued with the refs for maybe 5 or 10 minutes at the start of the second half, but once the refs explained the rule in detail he realized that we had eff'd it up beyond repair for that game. It's a little hazy, I'm surprised it didn't come up until my senior year. I don't believe there was any warning during the coin flip.

I thought I had heard there was a situation where someone chose to play with the wind (giving up the ball) in an OT, which is why I originally said "almost never".

Quote: AcesAndEights

Lo and behold, we ended up kicking off to start both halves since we didn't understand the rules.

wow, I thought I knew the rules in football fairly well, but I had no idea you could "defer"!

Since wind will not be a factor with the roof closed, I think the Giants will elect to receive when they win the coin toss (AFC stadium, which team gets to, "call it".)