Avargov's Wizard Inspired College Football Picks - 2011/12
August 6th, 2011 at 10:46:50 AM
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Well gang, September 1st is right around the corner, which means another wonderful season of college football. For as long as I can remember, I have tried my best to beat the spread and pick the right side on over/unders.
However, this year is gonna be a little different. After reading a thread a few months back where the Wizard wagered around $7,223,221,444 to win a nickle on the Academy Awards, I had an epiphany. When you boil everything off of it, sports betting is about one thing and one thing only....making money. To that end, this year I will ONLY be making money line wagers, and only on college football (the NFL killed me last year, like always). I will also try to make all of my picks at the Green Valley Ranch Resort near my house. You guys know I am a truck driver, so I will do my best. My wife may have to place some of them for me. I have used the ML before, but kind of thought it "unmanly" to not try to beat the spread. Man, how could I have been so stupid!
To make a long post short, I am starting my season with a bankroll of $5,000. A little less than where I finished last season. My goal is to double my money by seasons end. Can I do it? I sure hope so. Will I do it? That remains to be seen.
Just like last year, I welcome all comments and questions, and feel free to post your own picks here as well. The discussions become a bit lively on occasion.
And Wiz, thanks in advance for your inspiration!!!!!
However, this year is gonna be a little different. After reading a thread a few months back where the Wizard wagered around $7,223,221,444 to win a nickle on the Academy Awards, I had an epiphany. When you boil everything off of it, sports betting is about one thing and one thing only....making money. To that end, this year I will ONLY be making money line wagers, and only on college football (the NFL killed me last year, like always). I will also try to make all of my picks at the Green Valley Ranch Resort near my house. You guys know I am a truck driver, so I will do my best. My wife may have to place some of them for me. I have used the ML before, but kind of thought it "unmanly" to not try to beat the spread. Man, how could I have been so stupid!
To make a long post short, I am starting my season with a bankroll of $5,000. A little less than where I finished last season. My goal is to double my money by seasons end. Can I do it? I sure hope so. Will I do it? That remains to be seen.
Just like last year, I welcome all comments and questions, and feel free to post your own picks here as well. The discussions become a bit lively on occasion.
And Wiz, thanks in advance for your inspiration!!!!!
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
August 31st, 2011 at 7:35:35 PM
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Quote: avargovAnd Wiz, thanks in advance for your inspiration!!!!!
You're welcome. The money lines require a stronger stomach, but by betting on underdogs you'll make out better over the long run.
I'd recommend checking a site like Vegas Insider to make sure that Stations has a good money line on a particular game, relative to the market. If not, go against the spread. Usually Stations does have nice money lines on underdogs.
There will be lots of times your team beats the spread but loses straight up. In those times remember to keep the faith.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
August 31st, 2011 at 7:40:46 PM
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And thanks for the link Wiz, I do have that site bookmarked. I can't believe the Station ML's aren't there yet. Oh well, I don't fly back in until tomorrow anyway.
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
August 31st, 2011 at 9:33:06 PM
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The casinos usually don't post NFL money lines until the Thursday before the games.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
August 31st, 2011 at 11:19:05 PM
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I've never bet on sports (apart from the odd square or two during the Superbowl) but I think I'm going to give this a shot. I'll just start with $1,000 as I'm sure most of it will be gone by the end of the season. I'm going to increase my wagers (by stake %) as the season goes on to see if I can turn it into $5,000... might as well make the effort worthwhile.
I'll post my wagers (picks and amounts) and you can all watch as I fumble through the season. We could have competition (bet real money or fake, it doesn't matter so long as we all begin with the same amount) and see who ends up on top at the end of the season? Just for bragging rights here on the board but maybe someone will actually show that they have a knack for this and make some money.
Anyone else want to jump on board?
I'll post my wagers (picks and amounts) and you can all watch as I fumble through the season. We could have competition (bet real money or fake, it doesn't matter so long as we all begin with the same amount) and see who ends up on top at the end of the season? Just for bragging rights here on the board but maybe someone will actually show that they have a knack for this and make some money.
Anyone else want to jump on board?
Happiness is underrated
September 1st, 2011 at 3:18:49 AM
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Quote: WizardThe casinos usually don't post NFL money lines until the Thursday before the games.
I am only betting college this year Wiz. I get tired of the NFL killing my bankroll.;-)
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
September 1st, 2011 at 3:24:36 AM
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Quote: TheNightflyI've never bet on sports (apart from the odd square or two during the Superbowl) but I think I'm going to give this a shot. I'll just start with $1,000 as I'm sure most of it will be gone by the end of the season. I'm going to increase my wagers (by stake %) as the season goes on to see if I can turn it into $5,000... might as well make the effort worthwhile.
I'll post my wagers (picks and amounts) and you can all watch as I fumble through the season. We could have competition (bet real money or fake, it doesn't matter so long as we all begin with the same amount) and see who ends up on top at the end of the season? Just for bragging rights here on the board but maybe someone will actually show that they have a knack for this and make some money.
Anyone else want to jump on board?
I am game, but I am starting with 5k in my real bankroll. I will post all of my picks here starting today.
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
September 1st, 2011 at 4:16:46 AM
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I suggest blogging it
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
September 2nd, 2011 at 12:39:39 PM
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First wager of year:
TCU -170 Baylor -850 for 500 LeRoys sparks, NV
TCU -170 Baylor -850 for 500 LeRoys sparks, NV
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
September 2nd, 2011 at 12:54:50 PM
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I'm afraid there was a misunderstanding somewhere. I absolutely OPPOSE betting favorites on the money line in sports -- just the Academy Awards, where the winners are usually known in advance. In sports, just underdogs.
Makes these bets at your own peril.
Makes these bets at your own peril.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
September 2nd, 2011 at 2:05:59 PM
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No Wiz, no misunderstanding. I am aware of your underdog bias. However, I am generally on the other side. I prefer favorites, but hate (see last night), big favorites coming up a point or two short.
That being said, many of those games I can't afford.
The Wizard's sage advice has been duely noted, and I thank you for it :-)
That being said, many of those games I can't afford.
The Wizard's sage advice has been duely noted, and I thank you for it :-)
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
September 3rd, 2011 at 6:31:28 AM
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Well, I can see the Wizard shaking his head and saying 'I told you so!'. Great game but a heartbreaking loss. Bankroll stands at $4150 after that 37 yard dagger.
But I shall not despair, today is a new day, and I like Michigan and Cal. Will post when I wager the dough.
But I shall not despair, today is a new day, and I like Michigan and Cal. Will post when I wager the dough.
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
September 3rd, 2011 at 9:41:39 AM
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Quote: avargovFirst wager of year:
TCU -170 Baylor -850 for 500 LeRoys sparks, NV
I'm confused. You mentioned the money line for both teams, but how can we tell who you bet on?
"Bite my Glorious Golden Ass!" - Bender Bending Rodriguez
September 3rd, 2011 at 9:49:47 AM
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Sorry bout the confusion TCU was -170 against Baylor. I laid 850 to win 500.. Those were 2 different 'figures'.
Should have read:
TCU -170 Baylor. 850 to win 500. Leroys, Sparks, NV
Should have read:
TCU -170 Baylor. 850 to win 500. Leroys, Sparks, NV
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
September 3rd, 2011 at 9:55:57 AM
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Here are my two bets for today:
Cal -360 Fresno St. 1440 to win 400. Leroys, Sparks
Ind -250 Ball St. 1000 to win 400. Leroys, Sparks
Cal -360 Fresno St. 1440 to win 400. Leroys, Sparks
Ind -250 Ball St. 1000 to win 400. Leroys, Sparks
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
September 4th, 2011 at 8:34:43 AM
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Unbelievable, but it is what it is. 1-2, bankroll at $3550. Guess I need to look at my method a little harder. Or give my roll to the Wiz, and come pick it back up in January ;-) Next week, here I come.....
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
September 4th, 2011 at 12:51:34 PM
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Drove over to the Hilton to place this bet:
Tex AM -650 SMU. Laying 1950 to win 300. Good Luck me!!!
Tex AM -650 SMU. Laying 1950 to win 300. Good Luck me!!!
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
September 5th, 2011 at 9:32:49 AM
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OK, great, 2-2 for the weekend. Bankroll at $3850. Rough start, but coming back together I think.
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
September 5th, 2011 at 10:28:35 AM
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Quote: avargovDrove over to the Hilton to place this bet:
Too bad we don't know/trust each other, I would LOVE to book these bets.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
September 5th, 2011 at 10:55:32 AM
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Well, Wiz, it's not like we can't start to know/trust one another. I only live across town. Just sayin'....
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
September 8th, 2011 at 10:35:25 AM
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OkSt -500 Arizona. Laying 2500 to win 500. leroys, sparks, nv
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
September 8th, 2011 at 10:37:20 AM
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Take Stanford minus and/or the "over" ... no matter what they are.
Of course, I will not pay you back if these bets lose!
Of course, I will not pay you back if these bets lose!
September 8th, 2011 at 10:47:53 AM
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I've decided to indefinitely put off my plans to become rich by betting on college football. I made some selections and didn't book them as I wanted to see how I would fare... I suck. I think I'll stick to poker and thlf's football pool.
Happiness is underrated
September 8th, 2011 at 10:48:52 AM
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ICS, good having you talking football again instead of politics my friend! Thanks for the tip, I may drop a nickle or two on these if I am back in town before kickoff.
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
September 8th, 2011 at 12:14:25 PM
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I wish online sports betting was legal. I don't live near Nevada so I can't get in on the action. Still it is fun to read up in your predictions. Keep it up!
September 8th, 2011 at 2:46:51 PM
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I wish sports betting wasn't legal. Would save me a bunch on money every year!!! LOL!!!!
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
September 8th, 2011 at 11:17:33 PM
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Good job Cowboys! 3-2, bankroll at 4350. Todays bet, even though I am not sure why the line is where it is:
Mizz +280 AzSt. 200 to win 560. LeRoys.
Mizz +280 AzSt. 200 to win 560. LeRoys.
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
September 10th, 2011 at 7:56:42 AM
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Cursed Sun Devils! BR at 4150. First of three today:
Iowa -250 Iowa St. Lay 1250 to win 500.
Iowa -250 Iowa St. Lay 1250 to win 500.
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
September 10th, 2011 at 11:53:51 AM
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2nd game today:
Ala -380 Penn State. Lay 2850 to win 750.
Ala -380 Penn State. Lay 2850 to win 750.
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
September 10th, 2011 at 12:05:13 PM
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Right now I'm sure you're thinking "these -250 bets are not worth the heart attack"
September 10th, 2011 at 3:38:25 PM
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Quote: FinsRuleRight now I'm sure you're thinking "these -250 bets are not worth the heart attack"
And overtime is killing me! Roll Tide! BR is sitting at 3650. 3rd game today:
Texas -280 BYU. Laying 2800 for 1000.
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
September 10th, 2011 at 7:48:21 PM
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5-4. BR at 4650. Texas win was a nailbiter. Got through this tough week only down 350 overall. Sheesh, I wish I was betting the NFL. Houston ML looks REAL tasty!
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
September 14th, 2011 at 5:07:49 PM
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A new week is here, sort of, at least the release of the ML's for this weekend. Since I am here in beautiful Sparks, NV, I guess I will make my bet for tomorrow night.
LSU -160 MissST. Laying 1600 to win 1000. LeRoys, Sparks.
It's time to start getting on the plus side of this bankroll.
LSU -160 MissST. Laying 1600 to win 1000. LeRoys, Sparks.
It's time to start getting on the plus side of this bankroll.
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
September 14th, 2011 at 5:44:50 PM
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Looks to me like you're over-betting your bankroll. 2800 out of 3650 on one game? Even if you thought it was a 95% lock, that's way too much.
If you lose one bridge-jumper, you won't be able to bet sports again until you get a new bankroll. What fun is that? Just some words of caution from an anonymous guy on the internet.
If you lose one bridge-jumper, you won't be able to bet sports again until you get a new bankroll. What fun is that? Just some words of caution from an anonymous guy on the internet.
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
September 14th, 2011 at 6:27:10 PM
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Oh yeah man, I totally agree. This is more of an experiment than anything else. I am trying to see if I can double the 5k roll in one season using only money lines. Got to take some big chances to make it happen.
So yes, betting 80% of the roll on one game is insane. I would not recommend this to anyone. And thanks for the concern.
So yes, betting 80% of the roll on one game is insane. I would not recommend this to anyone. And thanks for the concern.
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
September 14th, 2011 at 7:32:57 PM
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Quote: ItsCalledSoccerTake Stanford minus and/or the "over" ... no matter what they are.
Of course, I will not pay you back if these bets lose!
Stanford covered, I think had the extra point or any of Duke's 3 FG attempts been good, it would've covered the O/U too. Oh well.
It looks like the game at Zona is 10 spread and 54 O/U. Given how we've been playing, I think either or both are good bets. We're averaging 49 ppg and MOV of 44.
September 16th, 2011 at 2:03:11 PM
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Way to Geaux Tigers!!! Finally in the black this season. Now, to keep it up. BR is at 5650. Not really seeing all too much tonight except for Boise State for a quick no lose bet:
BSU -1150 Toledo. Laying 2300 to win 200. Wynn, LV.
I see 3 or 4 plays tomorrow. Yes ICS, I think I am gonna be all over Stanford!!!!
BSU -1150 Toledo. Laying 2300 to win 200. Wynn, LV.
I see 3 or 4 plays tomorrow. Yes ICS, I think I am gonna be all over Stanford!!!!
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
September 17th, 2011 at 6:18:31 AM
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I spend way too much time in Sparks, cursed job. It does allow me to place odd hourkiosk bets though. Here are my early games:
PennSt -250 Temple. Lay 1250 to win 500.
Florida -360 Tenn. Lay 1800 to win 500.
Auburn +145 Clemson. 300 to win 435.
BR at start of day 5850. 7-4 overall.
PennSt -250 Temple. Lay 1250 to win 500.
Florida -360 Tenn. Lay 1800 to win 500.
Auburn +145 Clemson. 300 to win 435.
BR at start of day 5850. 7-4 overall.
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
September 17th, 2011 at 3:14:25 PM
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Last two bets of the night:
OkSt -500 Tulsa. Laying 1250 for 250.
Stanford -400 Az. Laying 800 for 200.
OkSt -500 Tulsa. Laying 1250 for 250.
Stanford -400 Az. Laying 800 for 200.
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
September 18th, 2011 at 12:51:37 PM
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Week 3 was very good for me. Here is the update for the first 3 weeks of the season.
Bankroll is at $7000 (+2000).
Favorite Plays: 9-3 (+2500)
Underdog Plays: 0-2 (-500)
Overall: 9-5
Perhaps I should lay off of these dogs all together!!!
Time to start looking at week 4 matchups.
Bankroll is at $7000 (+2000).
Favorite Plays: 9-3 (+2500)
Underdog Plays: 0-2 (-500)
Overall: 9-5
Perhaps I should lay off of these dogs all together!!!
Time to start looking at week 4 matchups.
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
September 22nd, 2011 at 2:47:30 PM
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Here we go, week 4:
Cin -300 NCSt. Laying 900 to win 300. Leroys
Cin -300 NCSt. Laying 900 to win 300. Leroys
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
September 24th, 2011 at 12:55:51 AM
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Nice little win Thursday night. Nothing worth a wager tonight. Slim pickens tomorrow. BR at 7300.
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
September 24th, 2011 at 12:57:00 AM
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Double Post
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
September 24th, 2011 at 8:17:09 AM
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It is a beautiful Saturday morning here in Fabulous Las Vegas. Just left the Hilton with these picks before I get my son and head to breakfast and then the Pinball HOF for a glorious day of whipping his ass in some old fashioned games (kinda of payback for his dismantleing of me in Halo and Rockband). Anyway, here are the picks of the day:
Michigan -400 San Diego St. Laying 2000 to win 500.
Notre Dame -280 Pittsburgh. Laying 840 to win 300.
Georgia -380 Ole Mill. Laying 760 to win 200.
Alabama -420 Arkansas. Laying 2100 to win 500.
We will see how these games pan out before the late afternoon and night games.
Michigan -400 San Diego St. Laying 2000 to win 500.
Notre Dame -280 Pittsburgh. Laying 840 to win 300.
Georgia -380 Ole Mill. Laying 760 to win 200.
Alabama -420 Arkansas. Laying 2100 to win 500.
We will see how these games pan out before the late afternoon and night games.
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
September 24th, 2011 at 2:26:11 PM
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One more for tonight:
South Carolina -800 Vanderbilt. Laying 4000 to win 500. Hilton.
Weekend update later on tonight!
South Carolina -800 Vanderbilt. Laying 4000 to win 500. Hilton.
Weekend update later on tonight!
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
September 24th, 2011 at 7:13:52 PM
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Congratulations on your great day!
I enjoy following your picks using the money line.
I enjoy following your picks using the money line.
I don't know everything but I know a lot.
September 24th, 2011 at 7:47:06 PM
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" the Pinball HOF " Do they have the horse pinball machine with 7 horses and win place show and purse at the absolute bottom.
No flippers, popular in the late 1940's ? Last time I played it as a kid cigarettes were 15 cent a pack, but store owner would sell them to us at a penny a piece. Nice guy !
No flippers, popular in the late 1940's ? Last time I played it as a kid cigarettes were 15 cent a pack, but store owner would sell them to us at a penny a piece. Nice guy !
September 24th, 2011 at 11:19:24 PM
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Wow! Red-letter day picking today! BR is at 9300 now. 15-5 overall.
@Ten - Thanks, I enjoy picking them.
@Buzz- I didn't see a game like that, but, I didn't check everything out. We are going back when I get home in a couple of weeks and I will be sure to look for you.
@Ten - Thanks, I enjoy picking them.
@Buzz- I didn't see a game like that, but, I didn't check everything out. We are going back when I get home in a couple of weeks and I will be sure to look for you.
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
September 30th, 2011 at 11:52:53 AM
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Nothing good last night. One for tonight:
BYU -300 USU. Laying 1500 to win 500. Leroys
BYU -300 USU. Laying 1500 to win 500. Leroys
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
October 1st, 2011 at 1:54:51 AM
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Winner, winner, Aggies for dinner. Good thing you bet ML. Aggies covered the 7 or 7.5. Good job.
