I want to house ultimate texas hold em. How much am i expected to make per hour?
Im gonna assume 0.53% is the house edge.
So for every $100 a player wagers, i only make 53 cents?
It's not even worth housing ultimate to people who play optimal strategy I feel like? And I'm also gonna let players be able to look at each others cards. which probably brings down the edge even more.
Let's say all ante/play bet is $100 and $100. I do 30 hands per hour.
would it be 53 cents x 30 hands = $15.90 im making in the long run per player per hour thats playing optimally?
Ok but im hosting 3 players who are all betting $100 each. so i make $48 an hour basically in the long run?
With the variance in uth its probably not even worth it. I can probably either lose $10000 running a 8 hour session against people betting $100 antes every hand, or either win 10k.
Am i reading this correct? How is the house even making money? Why would casinos want to even host ultimate when they can make far more money running double zero roulette which has a house edge of 5%+?
Some players prefer card games, and do not want to play roulette.
If you are going to host a game, make sure the dealer isn't sloppy. Overpays, mispays, and poor card handling technique will kill your edge faster than a few players playing expertly.
0.53% is the element of risk which is a term that the Wizard uses.
I'm going to estimate that the "real house edge" (i.e., slightly suboptimal play) is 3-4% on the main bets.
There are also side bets and progressives with higher house edges that most people play.
Additionally, players can bet up to x4 in UTH which would increase the amount being betted.
Quote: cory00AI is telling me 2.18% house edge for all wagered bets. But another website is telling 0.53%.
Im gonna assume 0.53% is the house edge.
So for every $100 a player wagers, i only make 53 cents?
It's not even worth housing ultimate to people who play optimal strategy I feel like? And I'm also gonna let players be able to look at each others cards. which probably brings down the edge even more.
Let's say all ante/play bet is $100 and $100. I do 30 hands per hour.
would it be 53 cents x 30 hands = $15.90 im making in the long run per player per hour thats playing optimally?
Ok but im hosting 3 players who are all betting $100 each. so i make $48 an hour basically in the long run?
With the variance in uth its probably not even worth it. I can probably either lose $10000 running a 8 hour session against people betting $100 antes every hand, or either win 10k.
Am i reading this correct? How is the house even making money? Why would casinos want to even host ultimate when they can make far more money running double zero roulette which has a house edge of 5%+?
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The house edge for optimal strategy without collusion is 2.18%
The house edge for UTH with optimal collusion in which each player sees the cards of 5 other players is 0.53%.
You are hosting a game with three players, so even if they are world class advantage players your house edge will be above 1.5%. Each player only sees 4 cards in his neighbors' hands, not 10 cards. If they are ordinary players then your house edge will likely be above 2.1%.
The only side bets i will have available to them is the trips bet.
Quote: harrisYou are significantly underestimating the total house edge.
0.53% is the element of risk which is a term that the Wizard uses.
I'm going to estimate that the "real house edge" (i.e., slightly suboptimal play) is 3-4% on the main bets.
There are also side bets and progressives with higher house edges that most people play.
Additionally, players can bet up to x4 in UTH which would increase the amount being betted.
link to original post
I see. so if a player bets $100 on ante, you expect me to win $3-$4 of that? Even if theyre looking at the best optimal play chart?
The only side bets i will have available to them is the trips bet.
Quote: gordonm888Quote: cory00AI is telling me 2.18% house edge for all wagered bets. But another website is telling 0.53%.
Im gonna assume 0.53% is the house edge.
So for every $100 a player wagers, i only make 53 cents?
It's not even worth housing ultimate to people who play optimal strategy I feel like? And I'm also gonna let players be able to look at each others cards. which probably brings down the edge even more.
Let's say all ante/play bet is $100 and $100. I do 30 hands per hour.
would it be 53 cents x 30 hands = $15.90 im making in the long run per player per hour thats playing optimally?
Ok but im hosting 3 players who are all betting $100 each. so i make $48 an hour basically in the long run?
With the variance in uth its probably not even worth it. I can probably either lose $10000 running a 8 hour session against people betting $100 antes every hand, or either win 10k.
Am i reading this correct? How is the house even making money? Why would casinos want to even host ultimate when they can make far more money running double zero roulette which has a house edge of 5%+?
link to original post
The house edge for optimal strategy without collusion is 2.18%
The house edge for UTH with optimal collusion in which each player sees the cards of 5 other players is 0.53%.
You are hosting a game with three players, so even if they are world class advantage players your house edge will be above 1.5%. Each player only sees 4 cards in his neighbors' hands, not 10 cards. If they are ordinary players then your house edge will likely be above 2.1%.
link to original post
where can i see the source for your claims? thank you
Quote: cory00Quote: harrisYou are significantly underestimating the total house edge.
0.53% is the element of risk which is a term that the Wizard uses.
I'm going to estimate that the "real house edge" (i.e., slightly suboptimal play) is 3-4% on the main bets.
There are also side bets and progressives with higher house edges that most people play.
Additionally, players can bet up to x4 in UTH which would increase the amount being betted.
link to original post
I see. so if a player bets $100 on ante, you expect me to win $3-$4 of that? Even if theyre looking at the best optimal play chart?
The only side bets i will have available to them is the trips bet.
link to original post
Send me your Trips pay table and I can calculate the total house edge based on how much you bet on each.
What optimal play chart are you looking at? I don't think anyone knows the optimal play well enough to be able to realistically figure out the optimal play every time within 20 seconds of receiving cards. If you are smart about strategy without being perfect, maybe 2.5% would be the real house edge.
Quote: cory00Quote: gordonm888Quote: cory00AI is telling me 2.18% house edge for all wagered bets. But another website is telling 0.53%.
Im gonna assume 0.53% is the house edge.
So for every $100 a player wagers, i only make 53 cents?
It's not even worth housing ultimate to people who play optimal strategy I feel like? And I'm also gonna let players be able to look at each others cards. which probably brings down the edge even more.
Let's say all ante/play bet is $100 and $100. I do 30 hands per hour.
would it be 53 cents x 30 hands = $15.90 im making in the long run per player per hour thats playing optimally?
Ok but im hosting 3 players who are all betting $100 each. so i make $48 an hour basically in the long run?
With the variance in uth its probably not even worth it. I can probably either lose $10000 running a 8 hour session against people betting $100 antes every hand, or either win 10k.
Am i reading this correct? How is the house even making money? Why would casinos want to even host ultimate when they can make far more money running double zero roulette which has a house edge of 5%+?
link to original post
The house edge for optimal strategy without collusion is 2.18%
The house edge for UTH with optimal collusion in which each player sees the cards of 5 other players is 0.53%.
You are hosting a game with three players, so even if they are world class advantage players your house edge will be above 1.5%. Each player only sees 4 cards in his neighbors' hands, not 10 cards. If they are ordinary players then your house edge will likely be above 2.1%.
link to original post
where can i see the source for your claims? thank you
link to original post
optimal house edge
I have no idea where I found the collusion house edge but sources online say it's not worth investigating
Quote: harrisQuote: cory00Quote: harrisYou are significantly underestimating the total house edge.
0.53% is the element of risk which is a term that the Wizard uses.
I'm going to estimate that the "real house edge" (i.e., slightly suboptimal play) is 3-4% on the main bets.
There are also side bets and progressives with higher house edges that most people play.
Additionally, players can bet up to x4 in UTH which would increase the amount being betted.
link to original post
I see. so if a player bets $100 on ante, you expect me to win $3-$4 of that? Even if theyre looking at the best optimal play chart?
The only side bets i will have available to them is the trips bet.
link to original post
Send me your Trips pay table and I can calculate the total house edge based on how much you bet on each.
What optimal play chart are you looking at? I don't think anyone knows the optimal play well enough to be able to realistically figure out the optimal play every time within 20 seconds of receiving cards. If you are smart about strategy without being perfect, maybe 2.5% would be the real house edge.
link to original post
here's a picture. lmk if that link works. Ulttable
imgur.com/gallery/ult-Ic9O7DR
Let's say I have 3 players all betting $100 ante's on this game. So i would do 3 players x $2.50 ha per ante = $7.50. Let's say I do 30 hands per hour. So that would be 7.50 x 30 = $225 per hour the house makes correct?
If I expect them to do a trips bet of $25 each, I should probably add 50 cents per player since edge is like 2% per player i think on the trips bet table that i have? So $1.50 x 30 = $45.
I should make on average in the long run $270 per hour?
Of course actual ev is never linear and I can expect to have major swings in this game as the house .
I wonder what the chance of losing $10k or $25k is as the house in a 12 hour session.
I wonder how much money i should set aside for hosting such a game.
Quote: cory00
I see. so if a player bets $100 on ante, you expect me to win $3-$4 of that? Even if theyre looking at the best optimal play chart?
The only side bets i will have available to them is the trips bet.
link to original post
That's not quite how it works.
If you've got $100 on Ante and $100 on Blind, you may have up to $400 on Play. You stand to win up to $600 at a time. You stand to lose up to $50500 at a time.
After thousands of hands, you will likely be ahead by around 2% of what has been bet. (You can get jammed up if players get lucky cards a little more often than probability says. It should work out, so long as you're shuffling randomly, but it can take thousands more hands to work itself out.)
Since you also intend to to offer Trips, with $100 on the spot, you stand to win $100, or lose $5000. Again, after thousands of hands, you should be up around 1% of the total action on this bet.
The nature of the game does mean that two players can't both get top prize (royal) in one round. If you have 3 players, they could get a royal, a straight flush, and a flush. With $100 each on the Blind, this puts you on the hook for up to about $56000 for the main game. Add in $100 per spot on Trips, and that's another roughly $10000.
But yes, over thousands and thousands of hands, you should be up by around $2 or $3 per spot. You get there by winning a few hundred or losing a few thousand at a time, not by raking $3 per spot.
Quote: DieterQuote: cory00
I see. so if a player bets $100 on ante, you expect me to win $3-$4 of that? Even if theyre looking at the best optimal play chart?
The only side bets i will have available to them is the trips bet.
link to original post
That's not quite how it works.
If you've got $100 on Ante and $100 on Blind, you may have up to $400 on Play. You stand to win up to $600 at a time. You stand to lose up to $50500 at a time.
After thousands of hands, you will likely be ahead by around 2% of what has been bet. (You can get jammed up if players get lucky cards a little more often than probability says. It should work out, so long as you're shuffling randomly, but it can take thousands more hands to work itself out.)
Since you also intend to to offer Trips, with $100 on the spot, you stand to win $100, or lose $5000. Again, after thousands of hands, you should be up around 1% of the total action on this bet.
The nature of the game does mean that two players can't both get top prize (royal) in one round. If you have 3 players, they could get a royal, a straight flush, and a flush. With $100 each on the Blind, this puts you on the hook for up to about $56000 for the main game. Add in $100 per spot on Trips, and that's another roughly $10000.
But yes, over thousands and thousands of hands, you should be up by around $2 or $3 per spot. You get there by winning a few hundred or losing a few thousand at a time, not by raking $3 per spot.
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thanks for the input bro
