ANALYZE THIS SPORTS SYSTEM

Analyze this system. Actually it's the double up system. We can use $5.00 bets as an example. You bet $5.00 on a baseball game and you win. That's good, your up $5.00. You bet $5.00 and you lose. Not so good. You double your bet and the next game wins. You won back your money on the game you lost, and you profit $5.00.Now, if you double up twice (three bets total) lose all three bets, you go back to the original bet of $5.00. So everytime your team wins. you win $5.00 and everytime you win one out of three games you win $5.00. There are people on the web trying to sell this system. Does it work? I don't know. But I do know one thing. They are misleading you when they say, If you buy the system you will win 70% to 80% of the time. Everytime you win a bet, they count that as a win. If you win one of the three games in the double up system, that is also considered a win. So the only time they claim you lose is if you lose three games in a row. And when you lose three games in a row, they count that as one loss. Under that claim, of course your going to have a huge win record veruses your lost record.

Any working system is not for sale, obviously.

A sports martingale would be a good system (not in baseball though) if it was an even money bet. But it's not. So you have to more than double your wager to make 1 unit. You also have to have deep pockets and a good stomach. Just not worth it.

So winning three consecutive bets is considered "3 wins" but losing three consecutive bets counts as "1 loss"? It'd be pretty easy to call a system a "winner" under those conditions...the thing is you win in $5 increments and lose in $15 ones (according to their conditions for declaring a loss).

I don't do the tough math...not smart enough for that, and I admire those who can do it. Thing is...take a look at what the results would be if you won at the rates they give:

100 bets (using the system method for declaring losses)
50 wins = $250 won
50 losses = $750 lost

70 wins = $350 won
30 losses = $450 lost

75 wins = $375 won
25 losses = $375 lost

80 wins = $400 won
20 losses = $300 lost

100 $5 bets (no system)
50 wins = $250 won
50 losses = $250 lost

70 wins = $350 won
30 losses = $150 lost

80 wins = $400 won
20 lost = $100 lost

I'll echo a pretty standard comment about systems...if someone is charging you enough that you can easily afford for a system, they are making money off the system and not the results of their use of the system. If you had a system that worked, would you sell it for $39.95? $99.95? $500? Heck no! You'd make millions (billions??) at the casinos as quietly as you could and enjoy life!!

I am trying a version of this and I haven't paid anyone a cent. Mine is MLB-only and goes lilke this:

1. Wait for a winning streak of 3-4 games-depends on sgtregnth of team,
2. Bet one unit against the team on the winning streak.
3. If you win, collect, if you lose, bet 1 plus what it takes to get back the lost unit.

eg, if you lose and the next day the line on the team against the streaking team is -135 you need to bet 1.35 + 1 units.

4. In the above you never bet a consecutive game against a prohibitive favorite, about -200.
5. In the above you never bet less than 1 additional unit. ie: if you lose and then you are betting a dog at +125 you bet 1+1.
6. After four martingales drop bak to 1 unit and start over.

Will it win long-term? Not sure but it is as good as anything. The idea is that if over 95% of streaks end before 7 games you can grind out the wins. If you are going against the hot team the moneyline gods might smile on you and give you some extra odds. The other idea is that sports teams are not the roulette ball and do have memories. Teams try harder against the hot team. The hot team may lay off some in practice, etc.

The level I am playing at is micro, to test it out. My first observation is that it must be used carefully at first as the MLB season needs about 15-20 games to "settle" into a normal routine. I am roughly even so far but would be ahead a little if not for last years "bad" teams coming strong out of the gate.

Quote: AZDuffman

Teams try harder against the hot team. The hot team may lay off some in practice, etc.

This logic could end up hurting you in the end. You are right there is a certain psychology that comes into play when a team is hot or cold, but saying teams try harder against "hot" teams or let up in practice cause they are "hot" is false at the Major League level. Actually, it is false at pretty much any advanced level of baseball, or most any other sports I would imagine. Having played and coached baseball at every level including professionally I won't call myself an expert, but I believe I have a pretty good understanding of the game inside and out and the psyche of individuals as well as teams through hot and cold streaks.

I like the idea you are attacking streaks in baseball betting, as an avid sports better, and even more avid in baseball I look for the edge in lines everyday to bet baseball (great thing about the sport 15 games a day most days). However, rather than focusing on trying to end a losing or winning streak, focus on the way a line moves to better favor or make a team a bigger dog during those streaks, then find the value in the side you want to bet. I won't say I am a consistent winner in sports betting, cause few are, but this year I am ahead in baseball.

Things I look for: Teams records vs. Lefty or Righty, pitchers past results against team they are playing, bullpens amount of innings in the last 3 days, WEATHER!!! warm climate teams coming into a cold area dealing with wind or rain, and weather as far as humidity and wind speed in relation to the setting of the park (wind blowing out or in) for the purpose of over/under bets.

Just remember rash generalizations can hurt you when betting sports, go with facts and research and you will have much better results. Good Luck though AZ and I look forward to hear of how your streak betting goes, and would love to talk further with you about betting baseball.

I was watching this system explained on youtube. The guy on youtube explains how the system is done. I looked on google and found one advertising what the guy on youtube was saying. In other words, the guy on youtube is exposing what the system is.

Quote: duckston09

Analyze this system. Actually it's the double up system. We can use $5.00 bets as an example. You bet $5.00 on a baseball game and you win. That's good, your up $5.00. You bet $5.00 and you lose. Not so good. You double your bet and the next game wins. You won back your money on the game you lost, and you profit $5.00.Now, if you double up twice (three bets total) lose all three bets, you go back to the original bet of $5.00. So everytime your team wins. you win $5.00 and everytime you win one out of three games you win $5.00. There are people on the web trying to sell this system. Does it work? I don't know. But I do know one thing. They are misleading you when they say, If you buy the system you will win 70% to 80% of the time. Everytime you win a bet, they count that as a win. If you win one of the three games in the double up system, that is also considered a win. So the only time they claim you lose is if you lose three games in a row. And when you lose three games in a row, they count that as one loss. Under that claim, of course your going to have a huge win record veruses your lost record.

this is known as a "chase system" don't let records and winning % of system's fool u. What i look for is ROI%. doesn't matter if ur record is 10-10 or ur hitting at 50%. If the avg. line ur betting on is +EV then ur gold =p like mlb dogs before the summer kicks in.

Away Dogs during the month of April 2011:
SU: 120-135 (-0.1 rpg) average line: +134 / -146 on / against: +$2,366 / -$3,757 ROI: +9.3% / -10.1%
RL: 162-92 (1.3 rpg) average line: -163 / +150 on / against: +$1,363 / -$2,528 ROI: +3.3% / -9.9%
O/U: 126-117-11 (0.4 rpg) average total: 8.3 over / under: -$190 / -$2,190 ROI: -0.7% / -7.8%

if u had bet on every AWAY dog during April u'd have a losing record... but would be up 2,366 based on $100 per bet for +9.3% ROI.

Popular MLB Chase system:

System 1 (fade a team that has been shut out, 6 game chase):
Game 1: 91-92
Game 2: 50-42
Game 3: 18-23
Game 4: 13-10
Game 5: 6-4
Game 6: 3-1
SYSTEM 1 = (181-1)+118units

System 2 (tail a team that has shut another out, 6 game chase):
Game 1: 93-94
Game 2: 51-43
Game 3: 21-22
Game 4: 6-15
Game 5: 5-10
Game 6: 6-4

SYSTEM 2 = (182-4) -70units

should just stay away from chase systems period.