Super Bowl XLV

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January 24th, 2011 at 5:43:27 AM permalink

Packers 20
Steelers 17

"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)

boymimbo

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January 24th, 2011 at 6:17:51 AM permalink

I'll go with whatever Mosca picks.

Seriously, it was two different Steelers teams that showed up yesterday (and certainly two different Jets team as well) and I think it's up to them to win or lose the game.

I'm going to go with the Steelers. 34 - 24.

----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!

Nareed

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January 24th, 2011 at 6:48:58 AM permalink

Quote: Croupier
I say Packers over the Steelers , 21-14.

Ok I believe you now that you really don't know much about football ;)

I won't hazzard a score, but the Steelers will win.

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DorothyGale

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January 24th, 2011 at 6:49:58 AM permalink

Quote: Croupier
21-14?

Deja Vu ...

These are great defenses, low scoring game ... won't go for long field goals. Mr. W.'s score of 20 - 17 assumed 3 field goals -- way too many for these teams. So, there will be 1 field goal and 5 touchdowns. Assuming it is close, that puts it at 21-17, obviously Pittsburgh winning. My second guess is 24-14, Pittsburgh. The most likely final "prime" result is 41.

It's too cold this winter ... make it stop!

--Dorothy

"Who would have thought a good little girl like you could destroy my beautiful wickedness!"

Nareed

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January 24th, 2011 at 7:36:58 AM permalink

Quote: DorothyGale
These are great defenses, low scoring game ... won't go for long field goals.

In a closed stadium? I think they will. Well, the Packers anyway. Suisham is a journeyman PK for a reason.

As to low scoring due to good defenses, that's what everyone thought of Steelers-Ravens. The thing about a good defense is that it can either score or set up relatively easy scenarios for the offense to score. I do foresee a close game, but it woulnd't break my heart if the Steelers won by over 10 points. Far from it.

BTW I won't be placing any bets. I never bet when the Steelers play.

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FinsRule

FinsRule

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January 24th, 2011 at 8:05:30 AM permalink

I'm ready for a contest....

Mosca

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January 24th, 2011 at 8:34:24 AM permalink

Quote: boymimbo
I'll go with whatever Mosca picks.

Seriously, it was two different Steelers teams that showed up yesterday (and certainly two different Jets team as well) and I think it's up to them to win or lose the game.

I'm going to go with the Steelers. 34 - 24.

I'm still thinking about it.... I'm a Steelers fan, but Green Bay has an offense very similar to the Patriots, and the Pats own the Steelers.

Nareed and AZD will tell you, that is the Steelers way, going back 40 years; get ahead, then sit on the ball and work the clock. In the last 10 years they are something like 74-6-1 in games where they led at halftime. And 5 of those losses were the '09 season. (I don't know the exact record, I do remember that in those situations they'd only lost once and tied once in the '00s, until last year's run of second half defensive meltdowns.)

That being said, I was squirming; the Jets are good. They have the best secondary in football. Holmes has made some big plays in his career. How about that heads-up go route he ran when Taylor tripped? Great play. Edwards has gotten really good this year (instead of in-his-mind good). LT is LT. Sanchez is one cool cat. And losing Pouncey made a difference to the Steelers in the second half. A BIG difference. The game plan was "run". Which, when obvious (like in the second half), only works when you have advantageous matchups. Legursky is OK, but he isn't a rookie Pro Bowl guy. He was getting tossed around on about half the plays.

The Bears game: the Chicago coaches really took their team out of that one, IMO. Not that they lost it (The Packers won it), but they took their team out of position to tie at the end, by calling that timeout, then calling a weird, complicated, slow-developing end around play with a rookie QB in there. And Martz has always been a poor clock management guy; he showed it at the end of the first half, wasting the 2 minute warning and then dawdling on getting plays in. In fact, if you have the game on DVR, watch; in the first half, Cutler yells to the sideline several times. The Bears were up against the clock the entire game. And not just because they wanted to keep the ball from Rodgers; they were repeatedly breaking huddle with 10-15 seconds left on the play clock and then rushing the snap.

A falling knife has no handle.

SOOPOO

SOOPOO

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January 24th, 2011 at 9:16:27 AM permalink

Packers 34
Steelers 17

RaleighCraps

RaleighCraps

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January 24th, 2011 at 9:30:44 AM permalink

As much as it pains me to say, Packers over the Steelers.
And, at 46 points, I'll take the Under.

Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!

mkl654321

mkl654321

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January 24th, 2011 at 9:55:37 AM permalink

Steelers 4
Packers 0

The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw

Ayecarumba

Ayecarumba

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January 24th, 2011 at 10:10:22 AM permalink

Packers 27
Steelers 24

And I'll take the over.

How about some props?

Coin Flip Winner?
First team to score?
First score by FG, TD, Safety?
Who will score more points on February 6, LeBron James or the Pittsburgh Steelers?

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slyther

slyther

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January 24th, 2011 at 10:26:37 AM permalink

GB 24
PIT 21

AZDuffman

AZDuffman

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January 24th, 2011 at 10:31:13 AM permalink

Steelers 17
Packers -2

Troy will find a way!

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Croupier

Croupier

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January 24th, 2011 at 10:31:48 AM permalink

Quote: mkl654321
Steelers 4
Packers 0

Ill give you odds of 100-1 (Maximum $1 bet) that that is not the correct scoreline.

[This space is intentionally left blank]

thecesspit

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January 24th, 2011 at 11:05:24 AM permalink

Steelers 21 - Packers 17.

But I'm hoping for a safety. The Jets won... anytime you get more safeties than your opponent, you win. Scoring a safety when your offensive player... you win, period.

An interesting game would be to post all the props and lines you can find, and give everyone a theoretical $100 to spend on them all.

Then the person with the most dollars after betting wins the admiration and fame of their colleagues.

"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829

Nareed

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January 24th, 2011 at 11:10:48 AM permalink

I'd put some small amount down that there'll be a safety. The Steelers gave on up in their last Super Bowl, and two this year against the Jets. They have some trouble in close goal-line plays.

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Wizard
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January 24th, 2011 at 11:15:46 AM permalink

Quote: Nareed
I'd put some small amount down that there'll be a safety. The Steelers gave on up in their last Super Bowl, and two this year against the Jets. They have some trouble in close goal-line plays.

I'll give you 10 to 1. That is a lot better than what you would get in the casinos.

"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)

thecesspit

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January 24th, 2011 at 11:19:00 AM permalink

Quote: Wizard
I'll give you 10 to 1. That is a lot better than what you would get in the casinos.

I'd probably take that action.... I always look at the props in the Superbowl (more so in past when I got free bets for it) and see if there's some advantage on the scores due to an assumption there won't be a safety/two pointer/missed PAT. There was in 2006 and 2005...

"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829

Nareed

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January 24th, 2011 at 11:46:15 AM permalink

Quote: Wizard
I'll give you 10 to 1. That is a lot better than what you would get in the casinos.

Hm. My stakes wouldn't satisfy you. I meant a really small amount ;)

How about we bet my soul? If there's a safety you'd owe me ten souls, or some symbolic cash payment. No safety and I'll sign my soul over this coming WovCon. Deal?

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SFB

SFB

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January 24th, 2011 at 1:18:32 PM permalink

I thought the winner of Packers-Eagles were going to represent the NFC in the SB. And they made it.
I thought it was going to be the Patriots in the AFC as well. With the Ravens the one to beat them if they didn't. Steelers beat the Ravens and then the Jets.

So I have it:

Steelers 34
Packers 21

Packers win it in one or more of the next three years. The Steelers may have hit the peak for the next several years....

SFB

Wizard
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January 24th, 2011 at 2:24:12 PM permalink

Quote: Nareed
How about we bet my soul? If there's a safety you'd owe me ten souls, or some symbolic cash payment. No safety and I'll sign my soul over this coming WovCon. Deal?

How about your soul vs. $100?

"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)

Nareed

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January 24th, 2011 at 4:09:25 PM permalink

Quote: Wizard
How about your soul vs. $100?

Sure.

Provided no one here buys my soul for that much, excepting DJ's 15% discount, before then. If they do, I'll bet ten dollars. Fair enough?

So, just to be clear:

If there's a safety, by either team, I get $100, payable at WovCon (and I'll even take free play for any casino on the Strip, Downtown, or the Palms if you have any to spare).

If there is no safety, you can have my soul at WovCon.

I suggest we postpone actual work on the soul transfer contract until after the Super Bowl. Plenty of time from then til June.

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JIMMYFOCKER

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January 24th, 2011 at 4:12:41 PM permalink

On a speed turf, give me the Packers, 34-13

Wizard
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January 24th, 2011 at 4:32:52 PM permalink

Quote: Nareed
If there's a safety, by either team, I get $100, payable at WovCon (and I'll even take free play for any casino on the Strip, Downtown, or the Palms if you have any to spare).

If there is no safety, you can have my soul at WovCon.

I suggest we postpone actual work on the soul transfer contract until after the Super Bowl. Plenty of time from then til June.

Agreed!

"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)

Nareed

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January 24th, 2011 at 4:44:24 PM permalink

Quote: Wizard
Agreed!

Deal!

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Nareed

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January 24th, 2011 at 8:29:32 PM permalink

Quote: Mosca
I'm still thinking about it.... I'm a Steelers fan,

So what's there to think?

Quote:
but Green Bay has an offense very similar to the Patriots, and the Pats own the Steelers.

Ah, I see. Well, yes, the Pats did the Steelers in, put them in the oven and stuck a fork in them. This year. In other seasons the Steelers snapped the Pats winning streak. But I lack the deep knowledge to tell you what's likely to ahppen. Only that the Steelers know how to win, and play best when the stakes are high.

But I'd still feel better if they'd kept Holmes.

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JIMMYFOCKER

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January 26th, 2011 at 11:11:19 AM permalink

The books have seen Packer money more so than Pitt money in the past 25 hours.

Nareed

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January 28th, 2011 at 7:07:08 AM permalink

I told my brother in law about the soul bet, and he burst out laughing. Poor thing is a Dallas fan (I suspect he was hit on the head early in his life), and he dislikes the Steelers (life must be tough with such handicaps). Naturally he's incensed about the Steelers winning at Dallas. Anyway, I bet him dinner the Steelers would win.

So what are the odds for overtime?

No Super Bowl game has ever gone into overtime. None. Few have even come close. But this time between two top-rated defenses and reasonably good offenses, it might just happen.

I'm trying to get a co-orker to make a bet. He's also a Cowboys fan (though in his case I suspect malice) and hates the Steelers (see?). But worst of all he's superstitious. We used to make small bets on the Steelers and Cowboys during the season (usually we bet a coke or a pack of cigarettes), but I did well and he was convinced the Cowboys lost and the Steelers won because he placed these bets (rather than because the Cowboys suck and the Steelers rule <w>)

Anyway, he won't bet either for the packers or against the Steelers. So I'm trying to get him to do a neutral bet. Overtime seems good. He may even be impressed against overtime when i remind him no Super Bowl has gone into overtime.

And if this isn't a lot of work for a coke, it's surely the next worst thing ;)

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ItsCalledSoccer

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January 28th, 2011 at 7:22:52 AM permalink

IMHO, I just don't see the Packers losing. Not that Pitt is bad, they're very good. But the Packers really have a shot at a long-term run.

FWIW, although I can't find the thread, I picked the Packers to win it all (over the Ravens) before the season started. Should've put my money on it, too. Oh well ...

Factoid of the Day: This year's Packers are one of three teams in NFL history to have never trailed by more than 7 points in any game for the entire season. Name the other two squads.

Sure Bet of the Day: I read somewhere that there were 10:1 odds against a punt hitting the big video board at the stadium. BET THE HOUSE ON "WON'T HIT THE BOARD".

Mosca

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January 28th, 2011 at 7:57:00 AM permalink

Pittsburgh's Pro Bowl rookie center Maurkice Pouncey is out with a broken ankle. Starting cornerback Bryan McFadden is limited in practice with a strained abdominal muscle.

I dunno. I've been thinking and thinking about it. My logical analysis says Pittsburgh, mostly because I don't think the Packers are as good as they've looked, and I think the Steelers are better than they've looked.

Now, this comes with a standard disclosure: If you'd bet your way through the season depending on my intuition on these things, you would be dressing yourself in rags and living out of your (junk) car. I got lucky with my random guess at the beginning of the year.

If the Pack wins, the difference maker is going to be BJ Raji. He is a real beast back there. If the Steelers win, the difference is going to be Flozell Adams and Rashard Mendenhall, with a bit part to backup center Doug Legursky. The Steelers have to run the ball effectively in this game, or at least make the Packers think that they can, or that they will try.

"Doug Legursky". Man, isn't that a '30s football name? Wow.

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Nareed

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January 28th, 2011 at 8:11:44 AM permalink

Quote: Mosca
"Doug Legursky". Man, isn't that a '30s football name? Wow.

It does sound like one :)

Loosing the center, if he is indeed lost for the game, is as bad as things get for the offense. But I wouldn't kill off the offense just yet. they managed to do one red zone driva against the Jets, and that ended with an interception. Then they managed to adavnce the ball long enough to eat up the clock and win the game, all without Pouncey.

Besides, Polamalu is ok :)

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JIMMYFOCKER

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January 28th, 2011 at 9:40:29 AM permalink

Quote: Mosca
Pittsburgh's Pro Bowl rookie center Maurkice Pouncey is out with a broken ankle. Starting cornerback Bryan McFadden is limited in practice with a strained abdominal muscle.

I dunno. I've been thinking and thinking about it. My logical analysis says Pittsburgh, mostly because I don't think the Packers are as good as they've looked, and I think the Steelers are better than they've looked.

Now, this comes with a standard disclosure: If you'd bet your way through the season depending on my intuition on these things, you would be dressing yourself in rags and living out of your (junk) car. I got lucky with my random guess at the beginning of the year.

If the Pack wins, the difference maker is going to be BJ Raji. He is a real beast back there. If the Steelers win, the difference is going to be Flozell Adams and Rashard Mendenhall, with a bit part to backup center Doug Legursky. The Steelers have to run the ball effectively in this game, or at least make the Packers think that they can, or that they will try.

"Doug Legursky". Man, isn't that a '30s football name? Wow.

Raji a beast, yes, and the Packers are full of other tremendous defensive players also.

Woodson and Collins are All-pro players in their secondary, and it appears that Shields and Williams will be joining those ranks in the very near future, giving this unit four all-pro players in the secondary!

Now you throw in the aformentioned Raji, and the defensive MVP of the league in Clay Matthews, and one can quickly see why this team only allowed 15 ppg on the season.

Meanwhile, the spread and ML continues to rise on the Packers, and rightfully so.

JIMMYFOCKER

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January 28th, 2011 at 9:48:08 AM permalink

Quote: RaleighCraps
As much as it pains me to say, Packers over the Steelers.
And, at 46 points, I'll take the Under.

Shocking to see the Steelers leading this poll, but will it continue?

Mosca

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January 28th, 2011 at 10:25:01 AM permalink

Quote: Nareed
It does sound like one :)

Loosing the center, if he is indeed lost for the game, is as bad as things get for the offense. But I wouldn't kill off the offense just yet. they managed to do one red zone driva against the Jets, and that ended with an interception. Then they managed to adavnce the ball long enough to eat up the clock and win the game, all without Pouncey.

Besides, Polamalu is ok :)

Not really all that bad, Nareed. The word from Steelerland is that Pouncey is more athletic, but Legursky is better at line calls and reading defenses. He played center all through college and high school, and the Steelers initially signed him to be a center. He's no slouch. The Steelers scored all their points against the Jets after Pouncey was injured.

Jimmy, that's for sure. The Pack earned their way to the game on hardnosed football. There's no other team from the NFC that I'd rather see in the game, this is one great matchup.

A falling knife has no handle.

Nareed

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January 28th, 2011 at 11:05:59 AM permalink

Quote: Mosca
The Steelers scored all their points against the Jets after Pouncey was injured.

How's that for short-term memory? I'd have sworn Pouncey was injured later in the game... I must be focused on the muffed center that gave the Jets a safety, but that was really late in the game.

Quote:
Jimmy, that's for sure. The Pack earned their way to the game on hardnosed football. There's no other team from the NFC that I'd rather see in the game, this is one great matchup.

Some Steeler fan you are. I don't want a great game, I want a cake walk. It is fun when the Steelers pound the other team into the ground, scoring TD after TD, offense, defense and special teams. If other spectators don't like it, well, not my problem :P

I fear Aaron Rodgers. He's a lot better than he's given credit for, even if he dind't play that well in the last game.

I really shouldn't say this. the last time I feared an opposing QB post-season it was Carson palmer, and you remember what hapepned to him early in the game. it was a clean hit, yes, but such a shame to injure someone like that. He's never been really the same since.

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JIMMYFOCKER

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January 28th, 2011 at 11:59:08 AM permalink

Quote: Nareed
Quote: Mosca
The Steelers scored all their points against the Jets after Pouncey was injured.

How's that for short-term memory? I'd have sworn Pouncey was injured later in the game... I must be focused on the muffed center that gave the Jets a safety, but that was really late in the game.

Some Steeler fan you are. I don't want a great game, I want a cake walk. It is fun when the Steelers pound the other team into the ground, scoring TD after TD, offense, defense and special teams. If other spectators don't like it, well, not my problem :P

I fear Aaron Rodgers. He's a lot better than he's given credit for, even if he dind't play that well in the last game.

Considering the fact he is the leagues all-time career passing rating leader, is mobile in the pocket and can run outside the pocket, is a very good leader, my take is any opponent that faces Rogers should be giving him much respect, be it through fear or whatever the case may be.

Think Green Bay handles Pitt with relative ease.

Mosca

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January 28th, 2011 at 2:05:49 PM permalink

Quote: Nareed
Quote: Mosca
The Steelers scored all their points against the Jets after Pouncey was injured.

Some Steeler fan you are. I don't want a great game, I want a cake walk. It is fun when the Steelers pound the other team into the ground, scoring TD after TD, offense, defense and special teams. If other spectators don't like it, well, not my problem :P

I don't think I wrote anywhere that I wanted a good game... I wrote that the Packers play good, hard nosed football. The better the team, the more it means if you blow them out.

A falling knife has no handle.

Mosca

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January 28th, 2011 at 2:09:19 PM permalink

Quote: JIMMYFOCKER

Considering the fact he is the leagues all-time career passing rating leader, is mobile in the pocket and can run outside the pocket, is a very good leader, my take is any opponent that faces Rogers should be giving him much respect, be it through fear or whatever the case may be.

Think Green Bay handles Pitt with relative ease.

Aaron Rodgers is the league's all time career passing leader? He's only played 5 years. Let's give him at least 5 more before we crown him, OK? (I think he's great, but a rating based on averages tells me nothing at this early point in his career.)

A falling knife has no handle.

thecesspit

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January 28th, 2011 at 2:19:29 PM permalink

Aaron's going to have avoid the concussions next year to get into the topmost flight of all time QBs. Remember, this is a team that lost 7-3 to the Lions after Rogers was knocked out. I'm hoping for a good game, but I'm not sure i can root for either team. Possibly I'd support the Steelers D and the Packers-O.... :)

"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829

Nareed

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January 28th, 2011 at 2:40:47 PM permalink

Quote: Mosca
I don't think I wrote anywhere that I wanted a good game... I wrote that the Packers play good, hard nosed football. The better the team, the more it means if you blow them out.

And I don't think I ever need to back down anymore. But in your case I'll make an exception ;) You did not say you wanted a good game. but you did seem happy about having a good match-up.

I agree also that beating the Packers means more than beating the Seahawks would have, this year anyway. But I still want a cakewalk. I enjoy them when it's my team, as much or more than seeing them struggle against big men who have the gall to hit back :P

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Mosca

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January 28th, 2011 at 2:54:30 PM permalink

Quote: Nareed
And I don't think I ever need to back down anymore. But in your case I'll make an exception ;) You did not say you wanted a good game. but you did seem happy about having a good match-up.

I agree also that beating the Packers means more than beating the Seahawks would have, this year anyway. But I still want a cakewalk. I enjoy them when it's my team, as much or more than seeing them struggle against big men who have the gall to hit back :P

No need to phrase it in those terms... semantics is our friend! I didn't imply that I DIDN'T want a good game, either, after all. I DO like the matchup, and hell, a good game is always fun. But so is a blowout, if your team is doing the scoring. My heart can't take many more of those nailbiters. I get those goofy heartbeats.

A falling knife has no handle.

Nareed

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January 28th, 2011 at 3:08:58 PM permalink

Quote: Mosca
No need to phrase it in those terms... semantics is our friend!

Semantics are a big pain in the neck, adn the nit-picker's best friend :P

Quote:
I didn't imply that I DIDN'T want a good game, either, after all. I DO like the matchup, and hell, a good game is always fun. But so is a blowout, if your team is doing the scoring. My heart can't take many more of those nailbiters. I get those goofy heartbeats.

I don't like a good game when the Steelers play. The game gainst Baltimore was good by any measure, but I hated seeing them behind, not to mention the fumble nobody wanted <roll eyes>. Yes the comback was thrilling, and maddening. It didn't have to be that way. The Steelers should have been on top and stayed there through the game.

I liked the game against the Jets a lot better. They were never behind. And while they slacked off in the second half, they didn't let the Jets get that close. The outcome was never really in question. I like games like that, for the Steelers. any toher game, I want to see a slough through the trenches. After all, I don't care whether the Bears beat the Seahawks or not.

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Nareed

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January 29th, 2011 at 5:22:07 PM permalink

So what's the line for overtime?

Related question, what percentage of playoff games go into overtime? I know no Super Bowl ever has.

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thecesspit

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January 29th, 2011 at 5:39:38 PM permalink

+750 for Overtime on BoDog. There was 19 overtime games last season.

"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829

Nareed

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Joined: Nov 11, 2009

January 29th, 2011 at 5:58:10 PM permalink

Quote: thecesspit
+750 for Overtime on BoDog. There was 19 overtime games last season.

Interesting. I thought more games wound up in OT.

So do sports teams have memories? The last three times the Steelers have played the Falcons, the games went into overtime. Had the Super Bowl been Atlanta vs Pittsburgh, wold that affect the odds of the game going into OT? I'm guessing no, or it's not possible to quantify.

BTW the series made up of those three games stands tied at 1-1-1

Donald Trump is a fucking criminal

JIMMYFOCKER

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January 30th, 2011 at 4:45:48 PM permalink

Anyone taken the +135 ML price yet?

Toes14

Toes14

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January 30th, 2011 at 9:59:30 PM permalink

I'm going to guess Green Bay wins 31-27.

"Bite my Glorious Golden Ass!" - Bender Bending Rodriguez

JIMMYFOCKER