allnighter
allnighter
  • Threads: 4
  • Posts: 11
Joined: Jan 11, 2011
January 16th, 2011 at 2:50:12 AM permalink
If you knew that over the course of a calendar year that you would win between 55%-62% of your sports bets on lines of -150 and below and some + ml underdogs, how would you manage your money if you had a $10k bankroll to start off and you wanted to bet between 1% to 3% of the bankroll to start out readjusted annually? Would you flat bet or use a cancellation method like the labouchere or some other method? This would average roughly 1 bet a day between 300-400 total bets for the entire calendar year and all plays would be ranked equally important throughought the year. How would you manage the money to grow the $10k bankroll the best? Thanks for your help. Take care.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1493
  • Posts: 26485
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
January 16th, 2011 at 3:06:08 AM permalink
My answer, for any advantage play, is to follow the Kelly Criterion.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
thecesspit
thecesspit
  • Threads: 53
  • Posts: 5936
Joined: Apr 19, 2010
January 17th, 2011 at 9:07:48 AM permalink
If you are only 55% on a -150 line, you've not got an advantage.

That said, on a 55% advantage on a -110 bet, the calculators show around a 5.5% stake ($55 on a $1000). That seems excessive, especially as it's hard to calculate your exact edge at sports. I would go for a maximum of 2.5%, and I would also NOT recalculate after every bet, but only adjust once I had gained 50% (or lost 50%), then up the bet with your new bankroll.

It takes a long time to increase your bankroll with sports betting.

55% on a $25 bet only increases your bankroll by $1.24 per bet. Or 806 bets to double, 403 bets to grow by 50%. A Full Kelly gets you there faster. IF your sure you have the edge you think you have.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
  • Jump to: