Super Bowl 59
Poll
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| | 5 votes (29.41%) | ||
| | 4 votes (23.52%) | ||
| | 1 vote (5.88%) | ||
| | 7 votes (41.17%) | ||
| | 1 vote (5.88%) |
17 members have voted
it seems to me the SB is a very different thing now then it used to be
it used to be enjoyment and excitement about the game - just watching the great players - or cheering for your side if you had one
now, with the tremendous expansion of sports betting it's mostly about looking for the best bets
it wasn't that long ago in most places you had to have a bookie to make a sports bet and iirc they only offered the most common types of wagers
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Quote: lilredrooster.
it seems to me the SB is a very different thing now then it used to be
it used to be enjoyment and excitement about the game - just watching the great players - or cheering for your side if you had one
now, with the tremendous expansion of sports betting it's mostly about looking for the best bets
it wasn't that long ago in most places you had to have a bookie to make a sports bet and iirc they only offered the most common types of wagers
.
link to original post
What percent of the people watching the game will have placed a bet on the game? Do you think the majority has? I'm not talking about friends and families or office pools.
I have no idea, and am too lazy to research it.
Quote: billryanQuote: lilredrooster.
it seems to me the SB is a very different thing now then it used to be
it used to be enjoyment and excitement about the game - just watching the great players - or cheering for your side if you had one
now, with the tremendous expansion of sports betting it's mostly about looking for the best bets
it wasn't that long ago in most places you had to have a bookie to make a sports bet and iirc they only offered the most common types of wagers
.
link to original post
What percent of the people watching the game will have placed a bet on the game? Do you think the majority has? I'm not talking about friends and families or office pools.
I have no idea, and am too lazy to research it.
link to original post
per the link:
41% of fans watching the game will place a bet of $100 or more
66% of Gen Zers
59% of parents with young kids
56% of millennials
and 51% of men
I figured it was a high % but I'm pretty surprised that it's that high
all inclusive SB wagering which includes illegal wagers last year was estimated at $23.1 billion - wow
legal wagering for this year is estimated to be about $1.4 billion
https://www.deseret.com/business/2025/02/05/super-bowl-lix-spending-snacks-betting-online-gambling-kansas-city-chiefs-philadelphia-eagles-viewership/#:~:text=In%20a%20national%20survey%2C%20LendingTree,millennials%20and%2051%25%20of%20men.
.
mQuote: lilredroosterQuote: billryanQuote: lilredrooster.
it seems to me the SB is a very different thing now then it used to be
it used to be enjoyment and excitement about the game - just watching the great players - or cheering for your side if you had one
now, with the tremendous expansion of sports betting it's mostly about looking for the best bets
it wasn't that long ago in most places you had to have a bookie to make a sports bet and iirc they only offered the most common types of wagers
.
link to original post
What percent of the people watching the game will have placed a bet on the game? Do you think the majority has? I'm not talking about friends and families or office pools.
I have no idea, and am too lazy to research it.
link to original post
per the link:
41% of fans watching the game will place a bet of $100 or more
66% of Gen Zers
59% of parents with young kids
56% of millennials
and 51% of men
I figured it was a high % but I'm pretty surprised that it's that high
all inclusive SB wagering which includes illegal wagers last year was estimated at $23.1 billion - wow
legal wagering for this year is estimated to be about $1.4 billion
https://www.deseret.com/business/2025/02/05/super-bowl-lix-spending-snacks-betting-online-gambling-kansas-city-chiefs-philadelphia-eagles-viewership/#:~:text=In%20a%20national%20survey%2C%20LendingTree,millennials%20and%2051%25%20of%20men.
.
link to original post
The discrepancy between legal wagers (you list 1.4 billion) and total wagers (estimate 23 billion) makes no sense to me. I thought legal sportsbooks are so prevalent now that legal would exceed illegal? And $1.4 billion seems really low.
I think my total action will be around $250? Depends on what new opportunities HardRock has for me!
Quote: SOOPOOThe discrepancy between legal wagers (you list 1.4 billion) and total wagers (estimate 23 billion) makes no sense to me. I thought legal sportsbooks are so prevalent now that legal would exceed illegal?
link to original post
I thought the same thing
but then I thought they're probably somehow trying to count office pools
several hundred thousand offices in the U.S.
maybe a third of them have some kind of betting on the game
bosses trying to create fun for their employees
.
Quote: WizardMy total amount bet this SB is $8390. Unlike previous years, it's about 75% on Phily and the under and 25% on prop bets. This doesn't count by bets with DJTB.
link to original post
How much is with B and M casinos? How much with online Sportsbooks? How much with sketchy sportsbooks?
And most importantly, what is your guesstimated EV on your $8390 bet?
Quote: SOOPOOHow much is with B and M casinos? How much with online Sportsbooks? How much with sketchy sportsbooks?
And most importantly, what is your guesstimated EV on your $8390 bet?
link to original post
All of it was at B and M casinos. In fact, all of it was at the Rampart, which follows South Point lines.
As for my EV, according to my calculations, Phily has a 58.8% chance of winning. That gives me a 17.6% advantage, assuming an even money money line bet. I had some early bets at +105.
As for the under 49, I am showing a 68% chance of winning. That gives me a 36% advantage.
I don't really claim my advantages are this big. It's just what I get based on my simple model that shows Phily winning by 3 and 43.4 total points. If I really believed these probabilities, I'd be betting much more. However, I do have faith they are good bets and I should be betting more. Just writing this makes me want to bet more on the under.
Quote: WizardNow this is a well-said stellar caveat.Quote: SOOPOO
I don't really claim my advantages are this big. It's just what I get based on my simple model that shows Phily winning by 3 and 43.4 total points. If I really believed these probabilities, I'd be betting much more.♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
I dont count??? 😳Quote: WizardThis doesn't count my bets with DJTB.
link to original post
Nah. Its cool. I get it. 😁
Frankly, Im grateful for our friendship as well as the action you give me. 👍
Quote: DJTeddyBearFrankly, Im grateful for our friendship as well as the action you give me. 👍
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I should be thanking you, as I think I have the better side of these bets.
After my last post I went to the Suncoast to throw some more money on the under, but they moved it to 48.5. So I instead bet the under on each half and quarter.
my pick is Chiefs on the money line - 120
so much depends on the QB
Hurts is great but Mahomes is greater - he threw for more than 1,000 yards more than Hurts this season
beating Mahomes in a money game is too tall of an order
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I have one box in each pool and may buy a second if needed.
The Ice Cream Social bunch has the lounge booked from 12- 4 PM, but there may be a hostile takeover.
My park laid off all its maintenance workers this week, claiming it did the opposite. The previous owners had set up the maintenance department as a separate entity and employed the workers through a contract with the shadow company. They insist they
simply didn't renew the contract with the old company and will take outside bids to replace that company, and the former employees of the old company are free to apply for a job with the new company. Meanwhile, they announced an 8% lot rental increase. It's the first increase since 2021, so it isn't as bad as it sounds.
Quote: lilredrooster
41% of fans watching the game will place a bet of $100 or more
I find that very hard to believe. Too many young people and old people watching too. $100 is much more than most people would bet.
Quote: DRichQuote: lilredrooster
41% of fans watching the game will place a bet of $100 or more
I find that very hard to believe. Too many young people and old people watching too. $100 is much more than most people would bet.
link to original post
that was per the link that I posted
they could be wrong
they could even be just making stuff up - idk - although I saw that what they posted about tens of billions being bet on the game elsewhere
bill asked me for the info
that's all I could find
.
So, UnJon, what should be my answer?
Quote: WizardMy total amount bet this SB is $8390. Unlike previous years, it's about 75% on Phily and the under and 25% on prop bets. This doesn't count by bets with DJTB.
link to original post
How have your predictions been running past few months? Your election electoral prediction which was the last one I noticed was completely off which isnt usual for you, you said.
Quote: lilredroosterQuote: DRichQuote: lilredrooster
41% of fans watching the game will place a bet of $100 or more
I find that very hard to believe. Too many young people and old people watching too. $100 is much more than most people would bet.
link to original post
that was per the link that I posted
they could be wrong
they could even be just making stuff up - idk - although I saw that what they posted about tens of billions being bet on the game elsewhere
bill asked me for the info
that's all I could find
.
link to original post
Just to be clear, I wasn't blaming you for what you posted. I just don't believe the stat.
Quote: TinMan
Edit: if Im thinking about this correctly, I think you can get better odds betting each individual quarter total of 0 at BetMGM. I was able to get +1050, +3000, +1100 and +2000 for each quarter. From what Ive seen, by far the most likely no score quarter is the first.
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Yes and that is totally backed up by football strategy. The later you get in the game, the more likely the down team is willing to take risks that either score or result in turnovers that tend to leave the recovering team in a good position, and the more likely the up team is to settle for field goals or concede field goals.
Quote: MDawgThe dealers and pit bosses have been asking me What to bet on Super Bowl, because youre so lucky.
So, UnJon, what should be my answer?
link to original post
Two team teaser?
it's been called the most unstoppable play in NFL history
the vid is from 2023 of the Eagles famous or infamous "tush push" which used to be called a QB sneak and they use near the goal line and sometimes when they're very close to a first down
it's called the "tush push" because one or 2 players push the QB - Jalen Hurt - from behind to assist him in getting the necessary yardage
it's one of the things that makes them so tough - they're successful with it about 85% of the time
it's a controversial play and some have called for it to be banned including Green Bay Packers President Mark Murphy - see link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElWXZRdssc0
https://thespun.com/nfl/nfl-team-president-wants-the-tush-push-to-get-banned
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when I played in high school it was a penalty to push the guy with the ball from behindQuote: lilredrooster.
it's called the "tush push" because one or 2 players push the QB - Jalen Hurt - from behind to assist him in getting the necessary yardage
I had the impression this was true throughout, NFL included. Maybe not, but we didn't see it done before, seems like?
Quote: odiousgambitwhen I played in high school it was a penalty to push the guy with the ball from behindQuote: lilredrooster.
it's called the "tush push" because one or 2 players push the QB - Jalen Hurt - from behind to assist him in getting the necessary yardage
I had the impression this was true throughout, NFL included. Maybe not, but we didn't see it done before, seems like?
link to original post
It was illegal until a few years ago. I think it still should be illegal. If the pile is slowly moving, and a defender comes from the side and lights up a pusher, he gets a penalty for unnecessary roughness, even though it was necessary.
85% underestimates the success rate by the way. If its 3rd and 2 they may tush push and pick up 1 1/2 yards which is counted as a failure, even though it sets up an easy 4th down successful tush push.
They will think long and hard before awarding a TD in the Super Bowl. There has never been an awarded touchdown in the NFL and I can only think of the 1954 Cotton Bowl in the NCAA. In that game, a bench player came on the field and tackled a player on a breakaway touchdown.
Rugby teams know how to defend similar plays so it is just a matter of time until someone finds the way to stop it.
imho a team could improve on it by having a 325 pound lineman playing QB for that play
as long as he doesn't fumble - and is able to catch the snap correctly - how could they stop him____? - very unlikely they could
.
Quote: lilredrooster.
imho a team could improve on it by having a 325 pound lineman playing QB for that play
as long as he doesn't fumble - and is able to catch the snap correctly - how could they stop him____? - very unlikely they could
.
link to original post
I'd be reluctant to put the ball in the hands of someone not used to handling it, especially taking the snap from the center. Someone will find a way to stop it.
I remember when the wishbone was almost unstoppable. Now it is a relic. A High School coach developed a defense to it that he called the backbone. When it worked, he showed it to the head coach of Notre Dame, and they surprised Texas with it in the Cotton Bowl.
It took a couple of years but the Wishbone faded away.
Quote: billryanQuote: lilredrooster.
imho a team could improve on it by having a 325 pound lineman playing QB for that play
as long as he doesn't fumble - and is able to catch the snap correctly - how could they stop him____? - very unlikely they could
.
link to original post
I'd be reluctant to put the ball in the hands of someone not used to handling it, especially taking the snap from the center.
seriously
how hard is it to take the snap from center - not very hard - these guys are pro athletes
I find it hard to believe that a pro NFL player could not easily become proficient in handling a snap
it's just not that difficult
.
Quote: lilredroosterQuote: billryanQuote: lilredrooster.
imho a team could improve on it by having a 325 pound lineman playing QB for that play
as long as he doesn't fumble - and is able to catch the snap correctly - how could they stop him____? - very unlikely they could
.
link to original post
I'd be reluctant to put the ball in the hands of someone not used to handling it, especially taking the snap from the center.
seriously
how hard is it to take the snap from center - not very hard - these guys are pro athletes
I find it hard to believe that a pro NFL player could not easily become proficient in handling a snap
it's just not that difficult
.
link to original post
95% of the time , no problem. 100% of the time? I doubt it, but it is not something we can argue over.
Quote: lilredrooster.
it's been called the most unstoppable play in NFL history
the vid is from 2023 of the Eagles famous or infamous "tush push" which used to be called a QB sneak and they use near the goal line and sometimes when they're very close to a first down
it's called the "tush push" because one or 2 players push the QB - Jalen Hurt - from behind to assist him in getting the necessary yardage
It is a horrible play and was banned for most of NFL history and should be banned again.
Quote: DRichQuote: lilredrooster.
it's been called the most unstoppable play in NFL history
the vid is from 2023 of the Eagles famous or infamous "tush push" which used to be called a QB sneak and they use near the goal line and sometimes when they're very close to a first down
it's called the "tush push" because one or 2 players push the QB - Jalen Hurt - from behind to assist him in getting the necessary yardage
It is a horrible play and was banned for most of NFL history and should be banned again.
link to original post
That is one opinion.
one of the amazing things about the play -
other than field goals or extra point attempts and such
it is I think the only play where the defense knows exactly what is coming
and still can't stop it
.
Quote: billryan
That is one opinion.
My opinion is gospel.
Quote: DRichQuote: billryan
That is one opinion.
My opinion is gospel.
link to original post
Every man is a king
In any case, lot of weird commercials.
Quote: ams288Refs rigging the game for the Chiefs already. Hope no one bet too much money on the Eagles.
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May have posted that too early.
Quote: DJTeddyBearDefense TD. Thats one!! 😁
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Well the overtime bet looks like a 100% loser right now!
Sigh. No scoreless quarter.Quote: DJTeddyBearDefense TD. Thats one!! 😁
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And I think O/T aint happening either. ☹️
So what is the over/under bet? Is that the combined points of both teams? idk
2 point conversion!Quote: DJTeddyBearSigh. No scoreless quarter.Quote: DJTeddyBearDefense TD. Thats one!! 😁
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And I think O/T aint happening either. ☹️
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Thats two!
Im profitable!!!
Quote: DJTeddyBear
Im profitable!!!
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If Philadelphia had missed an extra point, you would have gotten both that prop and the Scorigami.
Quote: AutomaticMonkeyQuote: DJTeddyBear
Im profitable!!!
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If Philadelphia had missed an extra point, you would have gotten both that prop and the Scorigami.
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Is betting on a Scorigami actually a thing? If so, I hope the guy who invented it and makes excellent videos gets something for that. But I doubt it.
