New OT rules leading to new betting oppotunities and conundrums?

I'm spinning this off of the "predict the super bowl teams" because, while it's interesting, it's also off-topic if left there...

Quote: Nareed

Remember the Vikings Rule the owners passed last year? It's a change in the overtime rules for playoffs games, to go into effect this season. Now scoring a field goal won't win the game, you have to get a TD. If you get a field goal, you kick off ot the other team. If they can't score, you win. if they score a TD, they win. If they score a field goal, the game goes to sudden death and the first to score anything further wins.

Lots of discussion now about new strategy with the new OT rules.

How about, onside kick to start OT? The rules say both teams need an opportunity to posses, not an actual possession. So, you onside kick! If you recover, and kick a FG, you win! If the other team recovers, and you hold them to a FG, you still get a chance to win or tie.

But even more diabolical... how about, if you kick a FG on the first possession of OT... then onside kick! Recover, and you win! Don't recover, and hold the other team, you win! Don't recover, and hold the other team to a FG, and you are right where you were with the old rules, receiving a kick in sudden death OT!

A strong defensive team, like the Ravens, Steelers, Packers, or Patriots... I say the onside kick after the first FG is a winning strategy. And I say if Belichick is in that situation, he does it; the guy has balls of brass/iron alloy.

Quote: Mosca

Lots of discussion now about new strategy with the new OT rules.

How about, onside kick to start OT? The rules say both teams need an opportunity to posses, not an actual possession. So, you onside kick! If you recover, and kick a FG, you win! If the other team recovers, and you hold them to a FG, you still get a chance to win or tie.

I'm not sure of that interpretation. If a team kicks onside and recovers, does that really count as a possesion for the other team? As far as I know it's a free ball until one team recovers it, and then that team has posession.

But onside for starters may be a good ploy. Once.

As I said after the latest Superbowl, the best time to kick onside is when the other team isn't expecting it. You do it once as a an OT tactic, it will work. But everyone will be watching out for it the next OT under these rules.

The rule doesn't state possession, only an opportunity for possession. From Pro Football Weekly, "As Competition Committee co-chair Rich McKay explained on NFL Network, each team is only guaranteed the opportunity to possess the ball. Which means that an onside kick recovered by the kicking team would count as a possession for the receiving team. Ditto for a muffed punt, or a fumble on a punt or kickoff return."

So, being kicked off to is an opportunity. Keep in mind, someone has to have the guts to actually do it; coaches are notoriously conservative on these things: "As New York Jets assistant coach Mike Westhoff told the New York Times, 'Boy, that takes some serious nerves to do that.'"(Slate)

For a full discussion, see this article at Slate; there are more around the web, but this one is best, IMO.

Oops I just posted the same thing in the Prediction thread :)

Then you're right that a team with a good defense should do it. Usually when the receiving team recovers an onside kick, the ball stays around the 40 yard line. That's good field position, but not aguaranteed score, much less a TD.

The problem is most teams should anticipate it now.

Which leaves the problem of what to do? Do you place your men most liekly to recover on the line and sacrifice blocking on teh return? Or do you go with your usual lineup and risk not recovering the ball?

That's why head coaches get paid the big bucks.

Coaches are not very smart when it comes to strategy. It's like none of them have ever played video games. Punting on 4th and 2 from the opposition 40 yard line (or even shorter!) makes me pull my hair out.

Quote: slyther

Coaches are not very smart when it comes to strategy. It's like none of them have ever played video games. Punting on 4th and 2 from the opposition 40 yard line (or even shorter!) makes me pull my hair out.

I'm sure I put my football laws on the site. I'll do a search later. Today we're leaving work early (if 6:30 pm qualifies as early)

I got called back to the office as soon as I reached home :(

anwyay, here's the link, and I'm too bummed to format it:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/off-topic/2788-nareeds-laws-of-nfl-football/

Look up laws 2 and 3 about punting on 4th and 2 on the other team's 40 yard line.

Quote: slyther

Coaches are not very smart when it comes to strategy. It's like none of them have ever played video games. Punting on 4th and 2 from the opposition 40 yard line (or even shorter!) makes me pull my hair out.

Yeah, I am sure glad all those couch quarter backs are coaching in the big leagues...