Betting the shave in NCAA basketball

Start with a few assumptions: first, now that sports betting is legal, it is immensely popular especially among college age guys. They also live in their phones, and assume what is happening with their phones is private. So assume most of the players are betting, even though they're not supposed to.

Second, know the history of college basketball and all the point shaving scandals. It's been going on forever and it's like the sport was designed for the practice. If you're a 30 point favorite no one but the bettors is going to care if you won by 29 or 31 points, and because of the way the game is played, the interaction between the players and the high variance in making shots it is hard to attribute a close loss with or without spread to the actions of any player or players. So with there being more betting than ever assume they're shaving now as much as or more than ever, especially in games with large spreads where one can shave without significant risk of losing the game.

But both teams are capable of doing it. Which team is going to have more players incentivized to do it, and willing to do it?

Consider guys who:
1. Have difficulty delaying gratification.
2. Habitually disregard laws and rules, even rules they have agreed to follow.
3. Overestimate the reward they will receive for the risk they are taking.
4. Too clever by half, believing this is some brilliant new idea they came up with and nobody will figure it out.

Now what did I just describe? Young males, in general. But some more than others. Examine each team for starters that you get some idea have these 4 characteristics amplified. I'm looking for overdogs from schools with low average standardized test scores, players with majors that are known to not require much effort, players who attended very low rated high schools, and one super-secret but easily measurable metric that I am not willing to share yet. Then I want to see an underdog with players who are the opposite of that, and they might realize they are unlikely to win, but might be a bit indignant when they see the spread, and if they are betting are more likely to be betting on themselves and their team to overperform.

I am perfectly willing to hear that this theory of mine is crazy and clueless! Or that I am guilty of #4, too clever by half and that everybody is already familiar with all this. But my play testing so far, with small bets, is going great. I'd want to go through the whole season winning before I say it works.

Quote: AutomaticMonkey

Start with a few assumptions: first, now that sports betting is legal, it is immensely popular especially among college age guys. They also live in their phones, and assume what is happening with their phones is private. So assume most of the players are betting, even though they're not supposed to.

Second, know the history of college basketball and all the point shaving scandals. It's been going on forever and it's like the sport was designed for the practice. If you're a 30 point favorite no one but the bettors is going to care if you won by 29 or 31 points, and because of the way the game is played, the interaction between the players and the high variance in making shots it is hard to attribute a close loss with or without spread to the actions of any player or players. So with there being more betting than ever assume they're shaving now as much as or more than ever, especially in games with large spreads where one can shave without significant risk of losing the game.

But both teams are capable of doing it. Which team is going to have more players incentivized to do it, and willing to do it?

Consider guys who:
1. Have difficulty delaying gratification.
2. Habitually disregard laws and rules, even rules they have agreed to follow.
3. Overestimate the reward they will receive for the risk they are taking.
4. Too clever by half, believing this is some brilliant new idea they came up with and nobody will figure it out.

Now what did I just describe? Young males, in general. But some more than others. Examine each team for starters that you get some idea have these 4 characteristics amplified. I'm looking for overdogs from schools with low average standardized test scores, players with majors that are known to not require much effort, players who attended very low rated high schools, and one super-secret but easily measurable metric that I am not willing to share yet. Then I want to see an underdog with players who are the opposite of that, and they might realize they are unlikely to win, but might be a bit indignant when they see the spread, and if they are betting are more likely to be betting on themselves and their team to overperform.

I am perfectly willing to hear that this theory of mine is crazy and clueless! Or that I am guilty of #4, too clever by half and that everybody is already familiar with all this. But my play testing so far, with small bets, is going great. I'd want to go through the whole season winning before I say it works.
link to original post

I think coaches have way more ABILITY to influence ‘high spread’ games. Do you put in your third stringers when up 25? Or wait until you are up 35? The team down 40….. do you keep your starters in to get it to 30?

I can tell you, in the NFL, Dan Campbell keeps going for that 7th TD to go up 45 late, while Sean McDermott is running the clock out way sooner.



To answer your question, I think it would be very hard for you to figure out pre-game which team is more likely to play ‘against or for’ the spread more than the other.

Quote: op

I'm looking for overdogs from schools with low average standardized test scores, players with majors that are known to not require much effort, players who attended very low rated high schools,

that's 'all of them' for schools that recruit. Just avoid schools that de-emphasize sports, like Ivy League [used to be somewhat true anyway]

Quote:

and one super-secret but easily measurable metric that I am not willing to share yet

Well! ha ha

I'd say you have your work cut out for you to get best results

Quote: AutomaticMonkey

But both teams are capable of doing it. Which team is going to have more players incentivized to do it, and willing to do it?
link to original post

My guess is, the team with the fewest NBA-capable players, as if anybody on that team is caught, all of them will be damaged goods.

You also left out one category of point shaver: someone who needs the money, especially to pay off gambling debts. That's how the Arizona State scandal started. (To this day, I am surprised that this was a real thing - I thought for sure that it was just a rumor gone out of control.)

There used to be an NCAA Bylaw where anybody caught shaving points immediately lost all eligibility.

With the NIL money, college players are no longer starving artists.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Quote: AutomaticMonkey

But both teams are capable of doing it. Which team is going to have more players incentivized to do it, and willing to do it?
link to original post

My guess is, the team with the fewest NBA-capable players, as if anybody on that team is caught, all of them will be damaged goods.

You also left out one category of point shaver: someone who needs the money, especially to pay off gambling debts. That's how the Arizona State scandal started. (To this day, I am surprised that this was a real thing - I thought for sure that it was just a rumor gone out of control.)

There used to be an NCAA Bylaw where anybody caught shaving points immediately lost all eligibility.
link to original post

I was thinking sort of along those lines. Match fixing is a felony for anyone. But a NBA-bound player who gets caught betting at all might have a problem. An engineering student at an academic school betting on himself and his team to win and playing to win might have some trouble with his school and the NCAA but that's not life-ruining.

It's also the players who come from a bad background and make bad choices who are more likely to have debt problems, gambling or otherwise, as well as being overly impressed with the amount of money they can get out of their Draft Kings app.

Quote: billryan

With the NIL money, college players are no longer starving artists.
link to original post

1. Do you honestly believe that all 5000 or so NCAA Division I men's basketball players get enough NIL money to cover their expenses?

2. The ones that do have NIL money are more likely to be using some of it to bet on their own games.
Technically, it's illegal for any NCAA athlete to bet on any level of any sport where the NCAA conducts a championship (so, for example, football players cannot bet on NBA games; note that this includes football, so betting on the NFL is illegal), but this thread is about point shaving, so it doesn't make sense to talk about anything else except players betting on their own games.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Quote: billryan

With the NIL money, college players are no longer starving artists.
link to original post

1. Do you honestly believe that all 5000 or so NCAA Division I men's basketball players get enough NIL money to cover their expenses?

2. The ones that do have NIL money are more likely to be using some of it to bet on their own games.
Technically, it's illegal for any NCAA athlete to bet on any level of any sport where the NCAA conducts a championship (so, for example, football players cannot bet on NBA games; note that this includes football, so betting on the NFL is illegal), but this thread is about point shaving, so it doesn't make sense to talk about anything else except players betting on their own games.
link to original post

An offensive lineman at Gettysburg College showed off his $85,000 pickup truck from his NIL deal so yes, I think any D! player is making more than they will when they run out of eligibility.
There is also no reason to bet with the shady characters that might induce point-shaving.

I earned a little on the Temple - UAB game in March. Someone with better information could earn a lot more. But if someone is using inside information, there are things that are a lot better than betting point shaving.

Quote: TomG

I earned a little on the Temple - UAB game in March. Someone with better information could earn a lot more. But if someone is using inside information, there are things that are a lot better than betting point shaving.
link to original post

True. Watched the Bills game. During the week leading up to the game, an offensive coordinator will have what they call a ‘game plan’. Specifically designed to attack the defense they will be playing. It might be something like ‘we will call more passes to tight ends than usual because of blah blah blah.’ Or we will use the backup RB more because he is blah blah blah.’

In this case, it was the second. The backup RB was FEATURED a lot. He must have been ‘over’ on his receiving/rushing yards combo by a factor of 5 at least. Anyone with access to ‘the game plan’ would have been able to make easy money betting his over total.