Betting the shave in NCAA basketball
November 20th, 2024 at 9:47:01 PM
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Start with a few assumptions: first, now that sports betting is legal, it is immensely popular especially among college age guys. They also live in their phones, and assume what is happening with their phones is private. So assume most of the players are betting, even though they're not supposed to.
Second, know the history of college basketball and all the point shaving scandals. It's been going on forever and it's like the sport was designed for the practice. If you're a 30 point favorite no one but the bettors is going to care if you won by 29 or 31 points, and because of the way the game is played, the interaction between the players and the high variance in making shots it is hard to attribute a close loss with or without spread to the actions of any player or players. So with there being more betting than ever assume they're shaving now as much as or more than ever, especially in games with large spreads where one can shave without significant risk of losing the game.
But both teams are capable of doing it. Which team is going to have more players incentivized to do it, and willing to do it?
Consider guys who:
1. Have difficulty delaying gratification.
2. Habitually disregard laws and rules, even rules they have agreed to follow.
3. Overestimate the reward they will receive for the risk they are taking.
4. Too clever by half, believing this is some brilliant new idea they came up with and nobody will figure it out.
Now what did I just describe? Young males, in general. But some more than others. Examine each team for starters that you get some idea have these 4 characteristics amplified. I'm looking for overdogs from schools with low average standardized test scores, players with majors that are known to not require much effort, players who attended very low rated high schools, and one super-secret but easily measurable metric that I am not willing to share yet. Then I want to see an underdog with players who are the opposite of that, and they might realize they are unlikely to win, but might be a bit indignant when they see the spread, and if they are betting are more likely to be betting on themselves and their team to overperform.
I am perfectly willing to hear that this theory of mine is crazy and clueless! Or that I am guilty of #4, too clever by half and that everybody is already familiar with all this. But my play testing so far, with small bets, is going great. I'd want to go through the whole season winning before I say it works.
Second, know the history of college basketball and all the point shaving scandals. It's been going on forever and it's like the sport was designed for the practice. If you're a 30 point favorite no one but the bettors is going to care if you won by 29 or 31 points, and because of the way the game is played, the interaction between the players and the high variance in making shots it is hard to attribute a close loss with or without spread to the actions of any player or players. So with there being more betting than ever assume they're shaving now as much as or more than ever, especially in games with large spreads where one can shave without significant risk of losing the game.
But both teams are capable of doing it. Which team is going to have more players incentivized to do it, and willing to do it?
Consider guys who:
1. Have difficulty delaying gratification.
2. Habitually disregard laws and rules, even rules they have agreed to follow.
3. Overestimate the reward they will receive for the risk they are taking.
4. Too clever by half, believing this is some brilliant new idea they came up with and nobody will figure it out.
Now what did I just describe? Young males, in general. But some more than others. Examine each team for starters that you get some idea have these 4 characteristics amplified. I'm looking for overdogs from schools with low average standardized test scores, players with majors that are known to not require much effort, players who attended very low rated high schools, and one super-secret but easily measurable metric that I am not willing to share yet. Then I want to see an underdog with players who are the opposite of that, and they might realize they are unlikely to win, but might be a bit indignant when they see the spread, and if they are betting are more likely to be betting on themselves and their team to overperform.
I am perfectly willing to hear that this theory of mine is crazy and clueless! Or that I am guilty of #4, too clever by half and that everybody is already familiar with all this. But my play testing so far, with small bets, is going great. I'd want to go through the whole season winning before I say it works.
