2024 WOV Picks Game Discussion Thread

I'm starting this thread to determine interest in a 2024 picks game.

I will post lines and collect entries if someone else scores.

Entey fee is $30, but not payable until the end of the season. Everyone plays on the honor system. Once you play a week, however, you are in!

Depending on entrants, top 2 or 3 get paid. Perfect entries throughout the season will share a pool (explained below)

SUGGESTED PRIZES (with two paid):
First place: Collects $25 from each place 5 thru the bottom
Second place: Collects $25 from 3rd and 4th place and doesn't pay.
No prizes currently for 50 percent or last place (subject to discussion).

This is not a get rich pool, but a fun pool with a small prize fund. I am contributing zero dollars (other than my entry)

PERFECTION BONUS:
Perfect weekly entries will split the pool from the $5 left from each entry fee.

Other rules (confidence picks, skip week, deadlines, format) will remain the same.

This is for DISCUSSION only at this time. If enough show interest, we'll do it.

INTERESTED (2)
PlayYourCardsRight
VegasBrent


I will update as people indicate interest. If you have a rules idea, I'm open to discussion.

I am interested!

Question -- In years past I had a basic strategy in the case I didn't otherwise submit my picks. This strategy was to choose the first 5 underdogs of at least three points, with the second one being a confidence pick. Will this still be allowed?

Yes, Wizard.
No picks by default, but if you post a method, I'm good with that.

Not trying to reinvent rules here.

Thanks for resurrecting this. BUT I am travelling so often this fall, it may be hard for me to have internet access to participate. So I will have to pass this year.

Next stops: Rotterdam and Iceland.

I'll possibly play if I can make that decision by indicating it by sending in my first picks, as I sometimes do

ummm, $30 in one spot above, in another, $25

I'm in if there are enough entries and I don't have to post the first week's picks until Thursday September 5. I believe that was allowed under the old rules as long as I didn't try to pick Thursday's game.

Thursday games are not included.

I'll mark you as in.

25 to the winner, 5 to the perfection pool.

I’m in. I’ll communicate with UnJon and see if we can do the scoring again. I assume that you will receive all the picks by PM and then copy and paste them onto a post on Sunday. I will commit to try to get the scores posted on Monday night after the Monday night game, working together with UnJon as he is willing.

Yes, Gordon, picks up Sunday morning

SOOPOO is in.

I would like to be included as well

Haven't missed a year yet....so....in!

I can't edit the original post

INTERESTED (8)
PlayYourCardsRight
VegasBrent
Wizard
RideTheEdge
Gordonm888
SOOPOO
AvianRandy
Johnzimbo

POSSIBLE (1)
OdiousGambit

We are still at 8 confirmed players. I will send private messages tonight to those who have played in the past. I would like to get up to 15 players in order to make this a decent time. I'm willing to run it with however many are in however.

I'm in.

Messages sent to all folks from last year, except Mission. Hopefully, there is more interest.

I will post lines tomorrow.

Matt

I haven’t spent much time here in the last year, but I’m in.

Count me in. Looking forward to the season.

I'm in. https://miplet.net/newnfl/ should be working, It updates at midnight every day and every 3 hours

Greetings all!

With the emails and PMs sent last night, we are at either 11 or 12 confirmed, so I'd say we are a go. Here are the official rules for this year:

1) The entry fee is $30. $25 will go to the prize fund and $5 to the perfection pool. If you play, you are expected to pay. There are no free dropouts. Even if you only play one week, you are agreeing to pay the winner if you lose. This is NOT a free contest.

2) All payouts occur at the end of the season. I will post a breakdown of who owes what to whom after the last week. Your payments should be made promptly.

3) This is a social gambling game, so please check your jurisdictional laws to make sure that you do not participate unlawfully. It is not the responsibility of myself nor this website to ensure that you are participating lawfully.

4) This game has no rake or house edge. Everyone, including me, pays to play. I do NOT directly collect any Entry Fees for this game, so participants are on the, "Honor System," to pay the winner. I DO NOT handle player funds for any reason.

5) Other than being posted here on WizardofVegas, this game is NOT sponsored or sanctioned in any way whatsoever by LCB.org, ownership or management of LCB.org, or any other websites or other outlets so affiliated. ALL players volunteer to risk an equal entry fee and all (current) additional prizes are paid for, personally, by PlayYourCardsRight.

PRIZES:

With less than 15 players, it will be a winner-take-all contest. If you aren't first, you are last. The winner will collect $25 from each of the other participants.

If we reach 15 players, second place will not pay and will collect one entry fee ($25 profit). All other prize money will be paid to the winner.

There are no contributions from me or anyone else at this time. If someone wants to donate, please let me know ASAP.

There are no prizes for being last or most average. Those prizes were funded by Mission146 in previous years and will not be funded by me.

Perfection Bonus

In order to win the Perfection Bonus, you MUST make a Confidence Pick and have a 6-0 week. The Perfection Bonus will pay at the end of the season based on the $5 contribution from your $30 commitment to play. It will be equally split between anyone who goes 6-0 during any given week at the end of the year.

With 10 players, the fund will be $50. If there are two perfect weeks, then each person earns $25. I will keep the running log of perfect weeks and post it each week.

If no one has a perfect week, the $5 will be added to the prize fund for the winner and second place participants.

Rules:

1) The winner will be determined by having the highest winning percentage. In the event of a tie for any prize, the winners will have the option of either splitting the take, or they may agree to PM me a Super Bowl pick prior to the Super Bowl, but after the combatants are known, consisting of the winning team, spread, TD's thrown and total passing yards; the winner will be determined in that order. If two Members PM me the same thing, they will BOTH be asked to change at least one aspect of their picks.

2) The procedure for this will be that at some point on Thursdays, I will post the point spreads and Over/Unders from one source per week. I will likely use BetSaracen (an Arkansas sportsbook, which is where I live) and the Spreads & Over/Unders I post will be constant and may be picked at any time prior to 10:00 EST on Sunday. If there is a Sunday game earlier than that, or a Saturday game, then you must submit Picks before kickoff of that game if you wish to pick the early game. Games played on Thursday or Friday are not a part of this contest. Edit: Correction....I will use the odds from vegasinsider.com


3) There will be NO EXCEPTIONS WHATSOEVER to the deadline for any reason. Too much controversy.

4) Once your picks are submitted, they are final. Changes are not permitted.

5) Saturday/Sunday/Monday games will be the only games considered. Every player must pick exactly five winners against the Spread, exactly five Over/Unders, or a combination totaling exactly five. If Saturday games are available, then you must submit your set of Picks that includes a Saturday game at least ONE HOUR BEFORE KICKOFF of any Saturday games; your Picks will also be locked in for that week and cannot be changed if you have picked Saturday game(s).

6) A "Confidence Pick," is only considered ONE PICK for the purposes of Rule 3. Five unique Picks are still needed. A confidence pick counts as either two wins or two losses.

7) Players may, "Skip," one week without making any picks, but they don't have to. If a player accidentally fails to submit picks, that will constitute the, "Skip," Week. For players who join the contest in Week 2, Week 1 will constitute the, "Skip," week. You cannot join the contest after Week 2.

8) If you wish to avoid unintentionally skipping a week, then you may submit Default Picks. However, in order to avoid controversy, (and make my life easier) Default Picks are limited to selecting sixteen NFL Teams and your picks will automatically be those teams in the order listed GAME TOTAL-OVER picks. If we go to your Default Picks, none of them shall be a Confidence Pick and you do not qualify for the Perfection Bonus that week.

9) If a player fails to make picks for more than one week (and has no defaults), he/she may continue to play. Every week of missed picks other than the allotted, "Skip Week," will result in an 0-5 record for all weeks missed.

10) The results will be posted shortly after Monday night's game. Please, "Self-Police," your own Standings to see if there is an inaccuracy.

11) Any Picks made that directly offset one another shall constitute two losses. "Offsetting Picks," are picking two opposite things to happen in the same game.

12) PM REMINDERS. I make no promises about sending PM reminders, but I will try. Reminders are to be considered a courtesy not a guarantee, everyone is accountable for remembering to make their Picks whether or not reminders are sent. If anyone chews me out for missing reminders, I'll probably just stop sending them entirely.

13) Please format your picks as shown below. It makes it easier for the people grading the picks.
For Spread picks, simply put the team nickname and the spread. (Ex: Bengals +5)
For Over/Unders, simply put the team nickname for EITHER team, and the Over or Under amount. (Ex: Bengals OVER 25)
To designate a Confidence Pick, simply put a hyphen and, "Confidence," after the pick. (Ex: Bengals OVER 25-Confidence)
Place your screen name followed by a colon (:) above your set of Picks.

So, a full set of picks might appear:

PlayYourCardsRight:
Buccaneers -15
Buccaneers OVER 52
Jaguars +12
Jaguars UNDER 42
Jets +4-Confidence

I think that covers everything. If there are any questions or concerns, please PM me and I will get them addressed.

I do need one person to volunteer to receive my picks, which will be sent to them shortly after the lines are posted each week.

Thanks and good luck everyone!

Matt

Correction....

I will use the odds from vegasinsider.com

Thanks,
Matt

Quote: PlayYourCardsRight

Correction....

I will use the odds from vegasinsider.com

Thanks,
Matt
link to original post

https://miplet.net/newnfl/ is what Mission used. It is draftkings lines using the same format we have been using. It updates every 3 hours

Quote: miplet

Quote: PlayYourCardsRight

Correction....

I will use the odds from vegasinsider.com

Thanks,
Matt
link to original post

https://miplet.net/newnfl/ is what Mission used. It is draftkings lines using the same format we have been using. It updates every 3 hours
link to original post

As a matter of scoring this between me and Gordon, it would be helpful to have the lines in the Miplit format we had last year so we don’t need to redo all the formulas in the Excel file.

I volunteer to receive PlayYourCardsRight (PYCR) picks and not read them until my picks have been submitted or the deadline for picks submission is past.

Updates:

In rule 5, it lists Mission as paying or not paying prizes. Mission is not involved in this year's contest. He is not paying or sponsoring anything. I cannot edit that post, but if a moderator wants to update that, I would appreciate it.

I will use the lines that Miplet said. I will try to grab them at a consistent time each week, but they will be posted usually on Thursday nights.

Thanks, gordonm888, for receiving my picks.

I appreciate everyone's input on this. The contest is a lot of fun, and that's the reason I wanted to keep it going. Tried to get the rules edited and come up with a payment structure that worked .

Thanks,
Matt

Quote: PlayYourCardsRight

Updates:

In rule 5, it lists Mission as paying or not paying prizes. Mission is not involved in this year's contest. He is not paying or sponsoring anything. I cannot edit that post, but if a moderator wants to update that, I would appreciate it.

*snip*

Thanks,
Matt
link to original post

rules edited as requested

To clarify, I am not paying any prizes out of my pocket. The game is a game of honor. You play (even one week), you pay.

WEEK 1 LINES

Cardinals 6.5 @ Bills -6.5 O/U 47
Steelers 3.5 @ Falcons -3.5 O/U 42
Panthers 3.5 @ Saints -3.5 O/U 41.5
Titans 3.5 @ Bears -3.5 O/U 44.5
Patriots 8.5 @ Bengals -8.5 O/U 41
Texans -3 @ Colts 3 O/U 48.5
Jaguars 3.5 @ Dolphins -3.5 O/U 49
Vikings -1.5 @ Giants 1.5 O/U 41.5
Broncos 6 @ Seahawks -6 O/U 41.5
Raiders 3 @ Chargers -3 O/U 40
Cowboys 2.5 @ Browns -2.5 O/U 41
Commanders 3.5 @ Buccaneers -3.5 O/U 42.5
Rams 3.5 @ Lions -3.5 O/U 52
Jets 4.5 @ 49ers -4.5 O/U 43.5



Please follow the rules in how you make your submission.
The deadline is 10 AM EDT on Sunday morning. No exceptions.

I somehow can’t look at a calendar correctly so Monday Night Football was missed. I also removed Friday.

Jets 4.5 @ 49ers -4.5 O/U 43.5


And here is this week’s line change link https://miplet.net/newnfl/diff.php?week=1&day=5&month=9&year=2024&hour=12

I added MNF, and had already deleted Friday's game.

Matt

I can’t send you a new email, for whatever reason. If you send me a ‘test’ email I can usually respond.

I mean PM, not email.

I’m in as well.

Here's the latest list that I have of players who said they are in. Doesn't matter if you aren't on this list... You are welcome to play! Just follow the rules listed above and join us each week for a good time!

Here's the current count that I have:

INTERESTED (14)
PlayYourCardsRight
VegasBrent
Wizard
RideTheEdge
Gordonm888
SOOPOO
AvianRandy
Johnzimbo
UnJon
Sparty10K
Miplet
Indyjeffrey
JML24
Genwyzgy

POSSIBLE (1)
OdiousGambit

Reminder PMs sent.

Not promising I'll have them every week.

Tell your friends. Tell your ememies.

Quote: PlayYourCardsRight

Reminder PMs sent.

Not promising I'll have them every week.

Tell your friends. Tell your ememies.
link to original post

The correct (and only?) way to send picks is by PM to you, right?

Yes, that's it.

Picks were received from all who said they were in, plus one extra.

I have 15 total pick sets for week 1.

Anyone can still enter before next week, and week 1 is their skip week.


PlayYourCardsRight:
Bears -3.5
Bengals -8.5
Vikings -1.5 CONFIDENCE
Seahawks -6
Chargers -3
Lions -3.5

Wizard
Cardinals 6.5 CONFIDENCE
Steelers 3.5
Panthers 3.5
Titans 3.5
Patriots 8.5

Gordonm888
Cardinals 6.5
Panthers 3.5
Titans 3.5 Confidence
Texans -3
Vikings -1.5

IndyJeffrey:
Bengals UNDER 41
Colts UNDER 48.5
Buccaneers -3.5-CONFIDENCE
Rams 3.5
49ers -4.5

jml24:
Bills -6.5-Confidence
Titans 3.5
Jaguars 3.5
Giants 1.5
Commanders 3.5

Johnzimbo:
Cardinals +6.5
Panthers +3.5
Titans +3.5 confidence
Jets +4.5
Bengals -8.5

SOOPOO:
Cards +6.5. Confidence
Steelers +3.5
49ers-4.5
Patriots +8.5
Jaguars + 3.5

avianrandy:
steelers + 3.5
Dolphins -3.5
Seahawks -6
Buccaneers -3.5 Confidence
Cowboys +2.5

RideTheEdge:
Jaguars +3.5
Texans -3
Patriots +8.5
Commanders OVER 42.5 Confidence
Jets +4.5

unJon:
Cardinals 6.5
Steelers UNDER 42
Dolphins UNDER 49
Chargers UNDER 40 - confidence
Lions -3.5

Sparty10k
Panthers +3.5 confidence
Colts +3
Vikings -1.5
Chargers -3
49ers -4.5

Vegasbrent:
Falcons -3.5
Saints -3.5-confidence
Buccaneers -3.5
Lions -3.5
Jets +4.5

Genwyzgy:
Falcons -3.5
Dolphins -3.5
Chargers -3 Confidence
Cowboys 2.5
49ers -4.5

miplet:
Patriots 8.5 confidence
Giants UNDER 41.5
Cowboys 2.5
Lions -3.5
Jets 4.5

FourFiveFace
Cardinals +6.5 Confidence
Texans -3
Jaguars +3.5
Seahawks -6
Commanders +3.5

Ok I think I got last year’s spreadsheet working for 15 players this year. Gordon, happy to send to you to issue spot unless you want to independently tweak to see if we get the same answer.

Two requests:

1) Please remember to add a colon after your name when you send in picks.

2) Please don’t shorten the team names. The spreadsheet looks for “cardinals” and not “cards”. SOOPOO, looking at you.

Thanks all and good luck.

Game	Away	Home	Over	Under
Cardinals 6.5 @ Bills -6.5 O/U 47	9	2	0	0
Steelers 3.5 @ Falcons -3.5 O/U 42	3	2	0	1
Panthers 3.5 @ Saints -3.5 O/U 41.5	5	2	0	0
Titans 3.5 @ Bears -3.5 O/U 44.5	6	1	0	0
Patriots 8.5 @ Bengals -8.5 O/U 41	5	2	0	1
Texans -3 @ Colts 3 O/U 48.5	3	1	0	1
Jaguars 3.5 @ Dolphins -3.5 O/U 49	4	2	0	1
Vikings -1.5 @ Giants 1.5 O/U 41.5	4	1	0	1
Broncos 6 @ Seahawks -6 O/U 41.5	0	3	0	0
Raiders 3 @ Chargers -3 O/U 40	0	4	0	2
Cowboys 2.5 @ Browns -2.5 O/U 41	3	0	0	0
Commanders 3.5 @ Buccaneers -3.5 O/U 42.5	2	5	2	0
Rams 3.5 @ Lions -3.5 O/U 52	1	3	0	0
Jets 4.5 @ 49Ers -4.5 O/U 43.5	4	4	0	0

PlayYour CardsRight : You have made 6 picks!!!

If you want, I will rule that your last pick, Lions -3.5, is null - as an act of first week graciousness and also because you have volunteered to run the contest. Would anyone object?

Quote: unJon

Ok I think I got last year’s spreadsheet working for 15 players this year. Gordon, happy to send to you to issue spot unless you want to independently tweak to see if we get the same answer.

Two requests:

1) Please remember to add a colon after your name when you send in picks.

2) Please don’t shorten the team names. The spreadsheet looks for “cardinals” and not “cards”. SOOPOO, looking at you.

Thanks all and good luck.

Game	Away	Home	Over	Under
Cardinals 6.5 @ Bills -6.5 O/U 47	9	2	0	0
Steelers 3.5 @ Falcons -3.5 O/U 42	3	2	0	1
Panthers 3.5 @ Saints -3.5 O/U 41.5	5	2	0	0
Titans 3.5 @ Bears -3.5 O/U 44.5	6	1	0	0
Patriots 8.5 @ Bengals -8.5 O/U 41	5	2	0	1
Texans -3 @ Colts 3 O/U 48.5	3	1	0	1
Jaguars 3.5 @ Dolphins -3.5 O/U 49	4	2	0	1
Vikings -1.5 @ Giants 1.5 O/U 41.5	4	1	0	1
Broncos 6 @ Seahawks -6 O/U 41.5	0	3	0	0
Raiders 3 @ Chargers -3 O/U 40	0	4	0	2
Cowboys 2.5 @ Browns -2.5 O/U 41	3	0	0	0
Commanders 3.5 @ Buccaneers -3.5 O/U 42.5	2	5	2	0
Rams 3.5 @ Lions -3.5 O/U 52	1	3	0	0
Jets 4.5 @ 49Ers -4.5 O/U 43.5	4	4	0	0

link to original post

I am completely absorbed in another activity until later this afternoon. I was going to try to modify the spreadsheet this evening.

My ruling is that I must take the worst outcome possible, so my first win is the pick that doesn't count. If my confidence pick wins, it becomes the one that doesn't count.

That is the fairest penalty. On the chance that everyone of my picks win (fat chance), I rule myself ineligible for the perfection bomus for the week.

Quote: gordonm888

PlayYour CardsRight : You have made 6 picks!!!

If you want, I will rule that your last pick, Lions -3.5, is null - as an act of first week graciousness and also because you have volunteered to run the contest. Would anyone object?
link to original post

First of all, thank you both for running this contest.

I’m not going to go back and read the lengthy, comprehensive, and well thought out set of rules for the contest. But either you or PYCR should, and should rule according to the stated rules. I remember a ‘no exceptions’ somewhere in those rules.

If your interpretation of the rules allows you to guess which 5 games should count, then do so.

Quote: PlayYourCardsRight

My ruling is that I must take the worst outcome possible, so my first win is the pick that doesn't count. If my confidence pick wins, it becomes the one that doesn't count.

That is the fairest penalty. On the chance that everyone of my picks win (fat chance), I rule myself ineligible for the perfection bomus for the week.
link to original post

We crossed paths on posting. I think that’s a really fair way to handle a ‘6 pick week’, and as such, the precedent is set for any future such errors.

For those scoring, please remove Vikings from my picks list.

That is the pick that must be removed due to my submission error.

Thanks,
PYCR

I do believe I went 6-0. How about that.

Quote: unJon

I do believe I went 6-0. How about that.
link to original post

I noticed. I think I’m 5-0 needing 49ers to tie you.

Here’s what I see going into tonight’s game. Great if people could shout if anything looks wrong. Overall a strong week 1 for WOV so far coming in at 51-27.

Player	Week 1 Record	Win%
avianrandy:	4-1	80%
fourfiveface:	3-2	60%
genwyzgy:	3-2	60%
gordonm888:	2-4	33.3%
indyjeffrey:	3-2	60%
jml24:	1-5	16.7%
johnzimbo:	1-4	20%
miplet:	5-0	100%
playyourcardsright:	3-1	75%
ridetheedge:	4-1	80%
soopoo:	5-0	100%
sparty10k:	3-2	60%
unjon:	6-0	100%
vegasbrent:	4-1	80%
wizard:	4-2	66.7%

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: unJon

I do believe I went 6-0. How about that.
link to original post

I noticed. I think I’m 5-0 needing 49ers to tie you.
link to original post

And miplet needs Jets so one of you will join me in week 1 perfection.