NFL Survivor Pool Odds for multiple entries by 1 user
December 29th, 2010 at 3:23:47 PM
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Assume the normal rules for an NFL survivor pool. No spreads. One strike and you are out. If more than 1 player remains after the conclusion of the regular season, or if the remaining players are eliminated at the same time, the prize money is evenly distributed amongst that group of players. One entry fee per entry is due before the beginning of game #1 of week 1.
As an experiment, for this pool, multiple entries per person are not prohibited. For arguments sake, only 1 player will be entering more than once. In addition, assume that the number of other entries is known to that player, before selecting the number of his entries. Based on x number of other entries, is there a number of entries that the player can enter with, and a weekly selection strategy that would guarantee him to win the event, and win more money than the sum of his entry fees.
As an experiment, for this pool, multiple entries per person are not prohibited. For arguments sake, only 1 player will be entering more than once. In addition, assume that the number of other entries is known to that player, before selecting the number of his entries. Based on x number of other entries, is there a number of entries that the player can enter with, and a weekly selection strategy that would guarantee him to win the event, and win more money than the sum of his entry fees.
December 29th, 2010 at 4:57:19 PM
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Quote: mhalsternis there a number of entries that the player can enter with, and a weekly selection strategy that would guarantee him to win the event, and win more money than the sum of his entry fees.
No.
December 29th, 2010 at 10:04:40 PM
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Could you please explain the math involved.
December 29th, 2010 at 10:39:23 PM
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Sorry. My answers are usually terribly explained, and never involve math. (I wonder what my reputation is on this board. Terrible I'm sure)
Yes, there is no math in the answer, because I think your question may be badly worded. How could you possibly guarantee being able to win no matter how many entries you have? Other people have to lose their picks for you to win. Otherwise, you'll be splitting. I'm in a survivor pool now that started with 25 people, and 2 are still left! (Not me)
The number of teams you would need to enter to guarantee anything would be really really really high. We're almost certainly talking millions.
There was a thread earlier discussing survivor pool strategy. I'm too lazy to look it up. But basically it's pick home teams with the highest spread. I like the strategy of not picking the choice that most people are going to pick. In a big pool, it's going to be impossible to win if you're with the majority every week. A more definitive strategy would need to know the variables such as number of contestants.
Sorry again that my answer sucks.
Yes, there is no math in the answer, because I think your question may be badly worded. How could you possibly guarantee being able to win no matter how many entries you have? Other people have to lose their picks for you to win. Otherwise, you'll be splitting. I'm in a survivor pool now that started with 25 people, and 2 are still left! (Not me)
The number of teams you would need to enter to guarantee anything would be really really really high. We're almost certainly talking millions.
There was a thread earlier discussing survivor pool strategy. I'm too lazy to look it up. But basically it's pick home teams with the highest spread. I like the strategy of not picking the choice that most people are going to pick. In a big pool, it's going to be impossible to win if you're with the majority every week. A more definitive strategy would need to know the variables such as number of contestants.
Sorry again that my answer sucks.
