The Largest MMA Bet of my Life

Unfortunately I don't post here very much anymore, but I still try to pop in from time to time and pitch in where I can especially in the blackjack subforum... but I realized after releasing the pick on Twitter and creating my first ever Reddit thread about it, that I hadn't shared it here. Most of the value is gone and there is a very large chalky number sitting in front of us, but I do believe there is some value to be had... understanding that 99/100 people cannot realize that value anymore because they don't have the bankroll to support a -400/-450 wager.

So if that is what it is and no more bets happen, that's cool, maybe you'll at least find this interesting to spark discussion... I'll link the reddit thread, but below is a copy/paste of the original post:

REDDIT THREAD

So I’ve handicapped mma for about 15 years, and have been training mma (boxing, wrestling, Mauy Thai, ju-jitsu, and an mma class that combines them all) for about the same amount of time. I’m a retired software engineer turned professional gambler 3 years ago and I'll never look back. I’ve been on the gambling podcast Gambling with an Edge 3 times (big in our small community). Maybe I’ll make another thread about that one day… but right now I’m here to give away what most people always want, free professional picks.

No I’m not asking for anything. No I will never tout. My group got down several 6 figures on this bet and a real professional doesn’t need your money. I’ve been doing this on Twitter for years, and in super low volume for that and many other reasons. I’ll have to 100% check but I’m pretty sure I’m 18/20 on my Twitter releases and I always give my full analysis (as you see).

Now to the main event, Floyd Mayweather v Connor McGreggor round 2…. But this time they’re going by Brendan Allen and Paul Craig in the UFC on Nov 18th. We scooped the market at a compost line of -295 on our action and the lines are currently around -400, couple -350’s in Europe and up to -450 in the states. (WoV EDIT: Current consensus line is now around -440, finally getting some push back from Craig bettors).

Lastly, I’d like to add my average line I bet over the past few years is +107, so a big chalky favorite isn’t exactly what I normally bet, but I believe this is a unique situation similar to the Mayweather v McGreggor fight where anyone with a clue knew McGreggor had 0 chances. I laid -650 on that fight and was the largest bet of my life at that time. I do not recommend betting anything more than you can afford, or betting at all. I’m here to share something professional for free because fuck the system, that’s the type of person I am. Casinos are evil as f, just like most companies. With all that said, enjoy.

ANALYSIS:

Brendan Allen is underrated. He's never faught a top 10 opponent and before his last 4-5 fights he was also 1 dimensional (ground expert) similar to Paul Craig. That's why the books don't give him the respect he deserves, he hasn't "proven" it against top 10 competition yet (but that still doesn't mean his skill isn't his skill). EDIT: Craig is an "average in the division" kind of guy. Allen will be a top 10 in the division fighter.

Paul Craig is overrated right now having just dropped a weight class and winning his last fight as a decent +185 underdog.

This is furthered by the fact that they both faught Muniz and Allen was +175 to him, and Craig was +185 to him. This tells you the book belives they're of a similar skill level. Yet they still opened Allen at -260, again showing they also see the clear difference between them, but they aren't giving the respect from 1 & 2.

This is a "safe" bet. I bet all the time knowing one guy can get a lucky punch and knock the other guy out, irregardless of the line. This is not the case in this fight for numerous reasons. Paul Craig has very little boxing ability. Since he has no confidence in his hands (again watch his last couple fights) he doesn't engage and doesn't throw and when he does it's with no intent. He also does not have much power and has literaly NEVER won a fight by knock out in his UFC career. To further this point, Allen has one of the better chins in the UFC. I rarely rate someone as high as I do with his chin and you can even see it in his last 2 fights. He took a couple BIG SHOTS right on the jaw and they litearlly didn't even wobble him. He exchanged with Silva in his last fight and literally they hit each other with power and Silva fell and Allen wasn't even phased. Not only does Craig not have the power Silva has, but Craig also has a below average chin... having been KO'd 4 times of his 7 losses in the UFC.

Craig has literally no takedown DEFENSE and often opts to fall to his back in guard because that's where he's comforatable. Allen has far superior offensive and very good defensive wrestling.

IF it does go to the ground (I think allen wants to KO him) then Allen will embarass him on the ground as he's just on another level. Craig is like a 7/10 in the UFC as a grappler, where as Allen is a 9/10.

Allen is 27, Craig is 35. Just by UFC stats alone the younger fighter with this age gap has a massive win rate. Let alone he has better stamina. Most important here is Allen is still getting better every single time you see him fight. Paul Craig is not and is on the tail end of his career.

Allen is dominating in the clinch with his head positioning, weight distribution, and ability to use that leverage for takedowns (which again Craig doesn't seem to even try to stop).

Allen throws volume and with intent to hurt. Craig does not throw with any volume because he doesn't have very good hands and clearly doesn't have any confidence with them. This is important in other fights in the past as the more "active fighter" in a close fight will win every single time.

Fight IQ. Allen is smart. He fights smart. EDIT: I trained at his gym when I was down south for AP work before and his coaches and gym run a good intelligent shop where as some gyms are known as shutobox gyms where all they do is just hard spar (less fundamentals). He knows when he's ahead and behind. Paul Craig opts to let his opponent get on top of him on the ground in a cage match, and makes terrible decisions in the clinch. Allen will be the craftier and smarter fighter to boot.

-375 = 14% advantage
-400 = 12.5% advantage
-450 = 10% advantage
-500 = 8% advantage

I'm obviously on the moneyline, but if you made me pick anything other than that and Inside the Distance... Allen via KO/TKO.

I joined you. Got -425.

[snip]

Quote: Romes

Unfortunately I don't post here very much anymore, but I still try to pop in from time to time and pitch in where I can especially in the blackjack subforum... but I realized after releasing the pick on Twitter and creating my first ever Reddit thread about it, that I hadn't shared it here. Most of the value is gone and there is a very large chalky number sitting in front of us, but I do believe there is some value to be had... understanding that 99/100 people cannot realize that value anymore because they don't have the bankroll to support a -400/-450 wager.

not sure what you mean since you can still bet as low as 10 cents at some sites [OK, you wouldn't do that, but you see my point I hope]

Quote:

So if that is what it is and no more bets happen, that's cool, maybe you'll at least find this interesting to spark discussion... I'll link the reddit thread, but below is a copy/paste of the original post:

REDDIT THREAD
link to original post

I also was able to get -425 and made a small bet, though I made myself make it a little larger than my first notion due to your indication it would be between 10 and 12.5% +EV

congrats on getting -295

.

this is a very impressive analysis by Romes and the bet looks like a very likely winner
there's not much joy in making a bet at -425 - but still - it definitely looks like an advantageous bet based on his post

I don't pretend to know much about MMA betting but I would guess that a bettor who takes the time to analyze the fighter's abilities - particularly the ones who are less well known - could find quite a few good bets

Romes mentioned that he is 18/20 on Twitter - and while not a large sample - still - his average line being +107 - it looks like he has a very substantial edge

imho this is the best sports betting post that has ever appeared on WoV - at least that I've ever seen - and I've seen a great many

.

Quote: lilredrooster

imho this is the best sports betting post that has ever appeared on WoV - at least that I've ever seen - and I've seen a great many.
link to original post

I know absolutely zip about MMA, and am not a sports bettor, but I would have to agree with you. Props to Romes for both the extensive analysis and for freely putting it out there for our consumption!

Quote: lilredrooster

.imho this is the best sports betting post that has ever appeared on WoV - at least that I've ever seen - and I've seen a great many...

That means a lot to me as this took a lot of work, and thank you to everyone else that chimed in. I posted it on Reddit and IMMEDIATELY was barraged with "you're fake, you're not even real, none of this is real, i'm betting paul craig... oh and if we didn't say it yet go f*** yourself" I mean, trolls will be trolls anywhere, but holy f*** did I underestimate how garbage Reddit really is.

I will never post another pick there.

...Allen via murder, let's go!

Allen submits Craig round 3. Thanks for the tip.

I tried doing as much as I could and helping regarding Rome's bet. I was out of town so I could not do much but make some calls etc, No one seemed all that interested or they were just too busy, and did everything I could to notify multiple people from my location.

I got action down, but not as much as I would have liked.

Congrats, the next WOV meet-up (all 5 people) is on you.

Quote: SOOPOO

Allen submits Craig round 3. Thanks for the tip.
link to original post

No problem, glad we made the $!

Quote: AxelWolf

I tried doing as much as I could and helping regarding Rome's bet. I was out of town so I could not do much but make some calls etc, No one seemed all that interested or they were just too busy, and did everything I could to notify multiple people from my location.

I got action down, but not as much as I would have liked.

Congrats, the next WOV meet-up (all 5 people) is on you.
link to original post

lol so now I have to pay for not getting action? Pass.

oddsmaker did a bad job of setting especially the original line, according to your analysis

I've had respect for oddsmakers beaten into me LOL. Is MMA just an unusually fertile ground?

What do you think about the integrity of MMA? A recent thread here was about a boxing decision that many felt showed a fix was in. No worries with MMA?

Quote: odiousgambit

oddsmaker did a bad job of setting especially the original line, according to your analysis

I've had respect for oddsmakers beaten into me LOL. Is MMA just an unusually fertile ground?

What do you think about the integrity of MMA? A recent thread here was about a boxing decision that many felt showed a fix was in. No worries with MMA?
link to original post

Same worries with MMA as you’d have with boxing.

I loved reading ROMES’ analysis. And did bet with him. But a -400 favorite winning is at best anecdotal. Absolutely no way to be sure what the fair line should actually be. Romes tries to, and if his analysis differs from the posted line he tries to take advantage.

That being said, I’ll be betting with him if he posts another pick.

It is very very good to hear from you Romes! Our forum has been impoverished by your absence and this glimpse into your activities and your mind was fascinating.

Be well and be happy.

Quote: odiousgambit

oddsmaker did a bad job of setting especially the original line, according to your analysis

I've had respect for oddsmakers beaten into me LOL. Is MMA just an unusually fertile ground?

What do you think about the integrity of MMA? A recent thread here was about a boxing decision that many felt showed a fix was in. No worries with MMA?
link to original post

MMA, with the amount of complexity it holds (rather than the 1 dimensional fight boxing is) doesn't allow for this as much because it's just so obvious to everyone who's winning when someone lays on top of someone else for 3 rounds punching them. MMA isn't without it's woes... I've definitely lost fights literally do to nothing other than HORRID judging (re: holly holm vs Ketlen Vieira if I recall correctly). In 15 minutes Holm had like 10+ minutes of clinch control time while punching her the entire time and I have no clue what drugs the judges did or what fix was in but they gave Vieira the win. It does happen and it is something I factor in to my handicapping if it's a fight that I believe will go the distance.

MMA is much tougher to handicap than people think because numbers don't matter "as much." I'm not saying they don't matter at all, but if you're gonna quote a strike differential to me about an upcoming fight against a wrestler, then I just know you know nothing about the sport. Punches don't matter if the puncher doesn't have takedown defense and is on his back the entire fight. Styles make fights. Figuring out each fighters tendencies and gameplan as well as ranking them in the important skillsets is what matters, and I truly believe my trained eye from competing in the sport for so long helps me miles with this.

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: odiousgambit

oddsmaker did a bad job of setting especially the original line, according to your analysis

I've had respect for oddsmakers beaten into me LOL. Is MMA just an unusually fertile ground?

What do you think about the integrity of MMA? A recent thread here was about a boxing decision that many felt showed a fix was in. No worries with MMA?
link to original post

Same worries with MMA as you’d have with boxing.

I loved reading ROMES’ analysis. And did bet with him. But a -400 favorite winning is at best anecdotal. Absolutely no way to be sure what the fair line should actually be. Romes tries to, and if his analysis differs from the posted line he tries to take advantage.

That being said, I’ll be betting with him if he posts another pick.
link to original post

After watching the fight and having it play out EXACTLY how I imagined (doesn't always go that well lol), I believe I was absolutely spot on. Allen had a 95%+ win rate, if not more (I always round down in my analysis to protect myself against judging, breaking an ankle, dislocating a shoulder, etc, etc). This is why my "rounded down" was only -900 (90% win rate). When my "rounded down" odds are -900, it's time to make the big boy bets...

He rocked Craig on the feet every round. Craig threw, 1, 2, 3? punches the entire fight? Allen also embarrassed him on the ground moving between positions smoothly and beating the hell out of him all along the way. The calf slicer craig tried was just a desperation move to get him to let go of the choke and was in no way dangerous for Allen even if it maybe looked it to an untrained eye. Craig had literally no shot to win the fight at any point in time through 2+ rounds and he was only going to get more and more gassed (he would have STRUGGLE BUSSED to finish out rounds 4 and 5 if it went there - his cardio has never been that good).

Quote: gordonm888

It is very very good to hear from you Romes! Our forum has been impoverished by your absence and this glimpse into your activities and your mind was fascinating.

Be well and be happy.
link to original post

Thanks for the kind words Gordon. I'm sure you're keeping the lights on with inciteful posts =D.

Great thread and analysis to read. I really enjoy handicapping MMA (for my own benefit, never to tout) as well. I do not practice though, so I’m sure you pick up on much more than I do.

ETA: there was a guy posting here a year or two back about MMA picks. My suspicion is that he was Krause or connected to Krause.

Actually it is great. I have never placed bets on MMA. Mostly prefer football. But maybe i will try to actually try this as well