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SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 118
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November 12th, 2022 at 8:55:31 AM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Here are my "x x x" Grades (this week):
NCAAF:.
@ USC: Under 66
@ UNLV: Under 60.5 (still an " x x x". if you can get under 60)
@ Illinois: Over 44.5
@ Middle Tennessee: Under 67.5 (still an " x x x", if you can get under 66.5).

NFL:
Packers @ +5.0
Panthers' @ +3.0 (odds -115 or better)
Titans game: Under 37.5 (added about 1750, Pac Time).


Note 1: Not as many bets this week, as I have been "quartered^^^ " (at least temporarily).

^^^: I can only get on at the "betting shop", as all 3 of my online accounts have been closed (I don't wish to say what it is about publicly, at this time).

Note 2: Because it takes about 20+ hours of "work / research / etc" per week, I probably won't be posting as many "potential bets " publicly either (at least until my accounts have been re-opened).

Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
link to original post


(snip)
For the Bills', I have the following ML:

Allen In: ~$1.54 (-186)
Allen Out: ~$2.15 (+115)
link to original post



Important: This figure for "Allen In" is based on a "completely healthy Allen", so if he is playing this week, then IMO the fair odds will be somewhere between -186 and +115.

"Betting Plan": I only plan to bet if Allen is out (since I am more confident in my "out estimate"). So if the ML gets to +140*** for the Bills, or +110*** for the Vikings, then I will bet on whichever team meets those conditions (if any).

***: These odds are the minimum for "x x x" grade, IMO.
link to original post



Iím tagging on todayÖ. I got Mid Ten u 67.5
And Illinois o 44. 1/2 point better than you got.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 94
  • Posts: 1545
November 12th, 2022 at 11:08:02 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: ksdjdj

Here are my "x x x" Grades (this week):
NCAAF:.
@ USC: Under 66
@ UNLV: Under 60.5 (still an " x x x". if you can get under 60)
@ Illinois: Over 44.5
@ Middle Tennessee: Under 67.5 (still an " x x x", if you can get under 66.5).

NFL:
Packers @ +5.0
Panthers' @ +3.0 (odds -115 or better)
Titans game: Under 37.5 (added about 1750, Pac Time).


Note 1: Not as many bets this week, as I have been "quartered^^^ " (at least temporarily).

^^^: I can only get on at the "betting shop", as all 3 of my online accounts have been closed (I don't wish to say what it is about publicly, at this time).

Note 2: Because it takes about 20+ hours of "work / research / etc" per week, I probably won't be posting as many "potential bets " publicly either (at least until my accounts have been re-opened).

Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
link to original post


(snip)
For the Bills', I have the following ML:

Allen In: ~$1.54 (-186)
Allen Out: ~$2.15 (+115)
link to original post



Important: This figure for "Allen In" is based on a "completely healthy Allen", so if he is playing this week, then IMO the fair odds will be somewhere between -186 and +115.

"Betting Plan": I only plan to bet if Allen is out (since I am more confident in my "out estimate"). So if the ML gets to +140*** for the Bills, or +110*** for the Vikings, then I will bet on whichever team meets those conditions (if any).

***: These odds are the minimum for "x x x" grade, IMO.
link to original post



Iím tagging on todayÖ. I got Mid Ten u 67.5
And Illinois o 44. 1/2 point better than you got.
link to original post


Hope you get the Illinois o 44 (I am not on, because I forgot to set my alarm).

Here are my pending bets for the games this week (so far):
2.8 units on Charlotte @ Middle Tennessee: Under 67.5 @ $1.86
2.0 units on the Packers @ $2.75 ML

2.4 units on Buffalo Bills*** vs Minnesota Vikings: Vikings +2.5 @ $2.20 (Edit 1120, Pac Time)
***: I don't know if Allen is out yet, but even if he is playing (with a suspected UCL injury) then I guessed that the fair line would be about +2.0 for the Vikings.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 94
  • Posts: 1545
November 12th, 2022 at 11:42:42 AM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: ksdjdj


(snip)
link to original post


(snip
Stafford In: ~$1.62 (-160)
Stafford Out: ~$2.20 (+120)
(snip)
link to original post


Above were my estimates for the Rams, assuming a healthy K Murray was playing (see other Rams' estimates below):

Stafford In / Murray Out: ~$1.47 (-211)
Stafford Out / Murray Out: ~$1.89 (-112)
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 94
  • Posts: 1545
November 12th, 2022 at 11:52:25 AM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: ksdjdj


(snip)

Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
link to original post


(snip)
link to original post


(snip)
link to original post



Iím tagging on todayÖ. I got Mid Ten u 67.5
And Illinois o 44. 1/2 point better than you got.
link to original post


Hope you get the Illinois o 44 (I am not on, because I forgot to set my alarm).
(snip)
link to original post


I know the total is currently 42 (21-21) but if the total with your 'book includes over time, then you have almost certainly^^^ won.

^^^: The worst that can happen is a push if just a safety is scored between now, and the end of the game.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 118
  • Posts: 9326
Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdj
November 12th, 2022 at 1:52:22 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: ksdjdj

Here are my "x x x" Grades (this week):
NCAAF:.
@ USC: Under 66
@ UNLV: Under 60.5 (still an " x x x". if you can get under 60)
@ Illinois: Over 44.5
@ Middle Tennessee: Under 67.5 (still an " x x x", if you can get under 66.5).

NFL:
Packers @ +5.0
Panthers' @ +3.0 (odds -115 or better)
Titans game: Under 37.5 (added about 1750, Pac Time).


Note 1: Not as many bets this week, as I have been "quartered^^^ " (at least temporarily).

^^^: I can only get on at the "betting shop", as all 3 of my online accounts have been closed (I don't wish to say what it is about publicly, at this time).

Note 2: Because it takes about 20+ hours of "work / research / etc" per week, I probably won't be posting as many "potential bets " publicly either (at least until my accounts have been re-opened).

Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
link to original post


(snip)
For the Bills', I have the following ML:

Allen In: ~$1.54 (-186)
Allen Out: ~$2.15 (+115)
link to original post



Important: This figure for "Allen In" is based on a "completely healthy Allen", so if he is playing this week, then IMO the fair odds will be somewhere between -186 and +115.

"Betting Plan": I only plan to bet if Allen is out (since I am more confident in my "out estimate"). So if the ML gets to +140*** for the Bills, or +110*** for the Vikings, then I will bet on whichever team meets those conditions (if any).

***: These odds are the minimum for "x x x" grade, IMO.
link to original post



Iím tagging on todayÖ. I got Mid Ten u 67.5
And Illinois o 44. 1/2 point better than you got.
link to original post


Hope you get the Illinois o 44 (I am not on, because I forgot to set my alarm).

Here are my pending bets for the games this week (so far):
2.8 units on Charlotte @ Middle Tennessee: Under 67.5 @ $1.86
2.0 units on the Packers @ $2.75 ML

2.4 units on Buffalo Bills*** vs Minnesota Vikings: Vikings +2.5 @ $2.20 (Edit 1120, Pac Time)
***: I don't know if Allen is out yet, but even if he is playing (with a suspected UCL injury) then I guessed that the fair line would be about +2.0 for the Vikings.
link to original post



I think unless you know, and could you possibly, how Josh Allen is physically, there is no way to bet that game other than random guess. It is equally conceivable that he isnít playing, and also possible he is 100%.

I actually took care of a Buffalo Bill a few years back. I was in the OR watching his surgery. I would have bet that there was NO WAY heíd play the next game. He played, and had a good game.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 94
  • Posts: 1545
November 12th, 2022 at 4:11:51 PM permalink
Some more bets for this afternoon/evening ("x x x "):

2.8 units on San Jose State -2.5 @ $1.87
2.8 units on Coastal Carolina -4.5 @ $1.88
2.4 units on TCU +5.5 @ $2.28

Note: For the above TCU game, I would have been happy to take 2.8 units TCU +7.5 @ $1.89 .
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
  • Threads: 82
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Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdj
November 12th, 2022 at 5:13:50 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Some more bets for this afternoon/evening ("x x x "):

2.8 units on San Jose State -2.5 @ $1.87
2.8 units on Coastal Carolina -4.5 @ $1.88
2.4 units on TCU +5.5 @ $2.28

Note: For the above TCU game, I would have been happy to take 2.8 units TCU +7.5 @ $1.89 .
link to original post



I have to say that I really like that you make picks for teams from the smaller conferences. I usually assume that I am the only one that cares about those games.
Order from chaos
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 94
  • Posts: 1545
November 13th, 2022 at 1:15:27 PM permalink
I know the Vikings' game isn't over yet, fingers' crossed. (update to come)

Update:
Come on overtime, what a great^^^ game (win or lose) too bad I didn't wait for my bet (I would have gotten at least +6.5*** )

^^^: At least the 2nd half, in terms of "excitement" (didn't see the first half).

***: That was the line ~24 hours ago.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 94
  • Posts: 1545
November 13th, 2022 at 2:02:47 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: ksdjdj


(snip)
link to original post


(snip
Stafford In: ~$1.62 (-160)
Stafford Out: ~$2.20 (+120)
(snip)
link to original post


Above were my estimates for the Rams, assuming a healthy K Murray was playing (see other Rams' estimates below):

Stafford In / Murray Out: ~$1.47 (-211)
Stafford Out / Murray Out: ~$1.89 (-112)
link to original post


Both Murray and Stafford out.
I would have had^^^ the Rams' roughly -1 ATS (or -112 ML) so I would have taken the Cards' (+3.0 or +3.5, according to V I).

^^^: Didn't get my bet on, because I was watching the Bills / Vikings Game.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 94
  • Posts: 1545
November 13th, 2022 at 4:31:50 PM permalink
2.6 units on the Chargers' +8.0 @ $1.96

Note: My estimate is Chargers' +6.5.

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