Sports betting chatter

So seems like I must have done, or be doing something, that has HR giving me these great opportunities.

Boatloads today. NCAAB

Texas Tech ML at +153. They are UNDERDOGS!

Nebraska +10.5 at +187. The fair line for -110 is 11.5. I’ll sell that single point to turn -110 to +187 every time.

Yesterday Twolves were +243. Fair line would have been around +130

Embiid over 24.5 was +167. The fair line for -100 was over 23.5. One point got me up to +167.

Bedard to score a goal fair line around +160. Got +243. (It lost).

Why I love this. Two nights ago had UCLA +10.5 at +148. The regular -110 line at the other sites was +10. So could lock in $$ easily. Game finished at exactly 10!

Today fair line on Tua passing is 196.5. You can get +173 on over 199.5. That extra ‘+73’ for 3 yards makes it a slight underdog but substantially +EV.
I think the weather may hinder passing, but I’m hoping a WR might break one or two long ones. Also got Waddle over 79.5 at +243. His fair O/U is 64.5.

Treasure trove today. Spurs ML at +201. Fair line around +125

Avalanche -1.5 at +148. Fair line around -120.

Wild to win at + 162. Fair line around -102.

McDavid to score two points at +167. Fair line around + 105.

I have (before these offers were available) Knicks -2.5 in a parlay. So rooting for the Knicks to NOT win by one or two!

The recent Soopoo advice has panned out quite well for Virginia sports betting; sometimes a different state matters

I'm moving away from the same game parlay boosts, with these there is no math to back up decisions since they seem to be able to jack up SGP house edge as they please, with no transparency. DK has had a 30% boost for any sport 2 leg SGP, Bet365 a frequent 50% boost on specific 3-leg. It's easy to believe these are at least marginally +EV, but I am no longer sure. All I can go by is that I seem to be just treading water with these, bankroll perhaps staying the same or perhaps on a slight decline, and more and more I'm just seeing these and nothing else. If it keeps up I'll just cash out of these outfits

Quote: SOOPOO

Treasure trove today. Spurs ML at +201. Fair line around +125

Avalanche -1.5 at +148. Fair line around -120.

Wild to win at + 162. Fair line around -102.

McDavid to score two points at +167. Fair line around + 105.

I have (before these offers were available) Knicks -2.5 in a parlay. So rooting for the Knicks to NOT win by one or two!
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I win if 2/4 hit. But 3/4 hit so $$. Lost my Knicks parlay anyway. It seems counterintuitive, but the more I win, the better my offers get.

As far as Odious’s comments, the 30% SGP /SGP + profit boosts are only moderately +EV. You can check by doing 3 50/50 picks, and if they are over +700 with the boost it is +EV.
Example today…. Memphis + points/under, Chicago + points (all 3 50/50 chance, non correlated) pays +737. So it’s 737 when 700 is ‘fair’. You aren’t getting rich on that extra 37, but it is +EV.
When the profit boosts are 50% it’s worth a LOT more.

Had a ‘no risk’ jai-alai bet offer. Bet $25 and if you lose you get a $25 bonus bet to use on jai-alai. I lost. Next day the bonus bet appears on my ap. Butttt…. Jai-alai season is over. Not sure when it starts again but not soon. Bet expires in 7 days. I message HardRock requesting that I can use the bet on a different sport. After some back and forth the guy (it’s a human; you can tell from the terrible grammar), tells me unfortunately there is no way they can change the terms of that bonus bet. He’s sorry.

But he says they will issue me a new $25 unrestricted bonus bet. He asks if that is ok? Like I had an emotional attachment to the original bonus bet or something. Frankly, it was much better service than I received in similar situations n the past on my NY accounts.

Quote: SOOPOO

As far as Odious’s comments, the 30% SGP /SGP + profit boosts are only moderately +EV. You can check by doing 3 50/50 picks, and if they are over +700 with the boost it is +EV.
Example today…. Memphis + points/under, Chicago + points (all 3 50/50 chance, non correlated) pays +737. So it’s 737 when 700 is ‘fair’. You aren’t getting rich on that extra 37, but it is +EV.
When the profit boosts are 50% it’s worth a LOT more.
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I'll have to study this , certainly I get +700 being fair bet. In the past when I have checked out regular parlays, the end result is true to the math, but *same game* parlays were not. I think they can make a case that *everything is coordinated* in a SGP and adjust with no transparency as to what they did!

To complicate things, I have bet SGPs many times, but never a SGPx [as it’s usually designated]. I thought a SGPx meant you had to combine two SGPs which would mean minimum 4 legs. Instead I know understand it also means you can combine a SGP with a straight bet.

Anyway, this morning I looked at upcoming NFL. With the new site, I combined a ‘spread bet’ and an ‘under’ bet SPG, and added a straight bet from another game. All odds shown as -110 each leg, and this was -110|-110 for both sides of each bet, including the straight bet, meaning that the oddsmakers thought the true fair odds were even, I have to think, as a separate bet.

I did the same thing on 2 different sites. On a true 3-leg parlay [not a same game] the final odds should be +595 or +596 according to these sites. On our now go-to site, for the SGPx as described above, the odds though were +509 instead. On the other site, +549. So I do think this shows that these sites are allowed to just do whatever the hell they want with SGPs, and use whatever algorithm they want to dream up, seeing as how these two above don’t match. As Soopoo points out, these bets are all just as non-coordinated as a 3-different-game parlay, but just because it is an SGP, they can and will screw the bettor … I guess the lame reason given, should they have to defend this, would be that all bets in a same game bet have coordination in a certain subscribed-to theory.

A 30% boost offer sends the odds to +662 and +713, resp., so in the latter case a 30% boost gives a small player edge assuming that 50-50 chances for each leg is accurate. Fyi I tried to put together a regular SPG combining 3 -110 bets for tonight’s game, but everything was heavily coordinated that I could find to do so with, and the final odds varied widely depending on which side you took, showing this.

I think I am sticking with my conclusion that 30% boosts with regular parlays should be +EV, but for SGPs they are inadequate entirely. For SGPXs done the way I know you can do now, 2 leg then adding a straight bet not in the same game, and depending on the site you use, those might be roughly considered break-even.

It’s not hard, OG. I plugged in Rams +1.5/ over and Jags +3. Fair would pay +700. I’m getting +737. So as I said before, slightly +EV. Plus I’m getting some ‘points’ as well. They are allowing me to bet $250 on these. So around $5 in +EV on these. But of course LOTS of variance.

The 50% ones are super easy to make very positive. And if taking these scraps gives me access to the bets I’ve detailed in my previous few posts I’ll take the small + EV to get me the big +EV.

Quote: SOOPOO

It’s not hard, OG. I plugged in Rams +1.5/ over and Jags +3. Fair would pay +700. I’m getting +737. So as I said before, slightly +EV. Plus I’m getting some ‘points’ as well. They are allowing me to bet $250 on these. So around $5 in +EV on these. But of course LOTS of variance.

The 50% ones are super easy to make very positive. And if taking these scraps gives me access to the bets I’ve detailed in my previous few posts I’ll take the small + EV to get me the big +EV.
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50% is another matter and I am only now realizing how to bet SGPx and not to keep it SGP period. Thanks for the help

Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: SOOPOO

It’s not hard, OG. I plugged in Rams +1.5/ over and Jags +3. Fair would pay +700. I’m getting +737. So as I said before, slightly +EV. Plus I’m getting some ‘points’ as well. They are allowing me to bet $250 on these. So around $5 in +EV on these. But of course LOTS of variance.

The 50% ones are super easy to make very positive. And if taking these scraps gives me access to the bets I’ve detailed in my previous few posts I’ll take the small + EV to get me the big +EV.
link to original post

50% is another matter and I am only now realizing how to bet SGPx and not to keep it SGP period. Thanks for the help
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But your overall impression of HardRock’s SGP lines is correct. Way worse than other sites. But if they bake in a certain amount for parlays, when you find one that IS correlated but no additional ‘baked in’ amount, that can be valuable.

Today Bruins ML +194. Fair line around +120.
Lightning -1.5 at +201. Fair line around +135.

When I’d get these in NY I’d take the free $$ by betting opposite on a different site. Here in Florida I am actually gambling because it certainly is possible I’ll lose both bets.

Knicks apparently doing the unofficial forfeit today. Hart, Towns, and Robinson all ‘injured’ and out for today’s game. Their only 3 players who can rebound the ball at any reasonable level. SOOPOO unaware (my fault) so picked them as my ‘safe’ pick in a few parlays.

Quote: SOOPOO

Knicks apparently doing the unofficial forfeit today. Hart, Towns, and Robinson all ‘injured’ and out for today’s game. Their only 3 players who can rebound the ball at any reasonable level. SOOPOO unaware (my fault) so picked them as my ‘safe’ pick in a few parlays.
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I got lucky. Knicks came back to win by a point. I guess the Pacers suck more than the ragtag group of Knicks backups.
Miraculously, all 3 injured Knicks have recovered and are expected to play tonight.

The boring Nuggets/Jokic Triple Double hit again.

I’m liking the Browns +10.5 over my Bills. We lost to the Dolphins AND Falcons, and needed Superman Allen in consecutive unlikely comebacks.

Time to go check for available boosts today. I know I got two 50% ones today.

Two ridiculously +EV bets on HR today. Mavericks ML at +162. Fair line is +100.
Lightning -1.5 at +180. Fair line around +110.

My (likely -EV) bet of the day is Rivers over 158.5 yards passing. I have to believe 49ers will design defense to stop Taylor from running opening up passing opportunities.

Edit. Make it 3 great bets. Kracken +1.5 at +125. Fair is around -145!

Hope you took the over in Patriots-Jets. Down 5 starters, and the Pats still layed the smackdown.

I’ve stopped posting all the + EV bets, but what the hell…..

Today….. Ga Southern -13.5 over Ap State. -13.5. At a juicy +201. Line seemed WAY high though. Did a little research. Ap State missing THIRTY ONE players due to transfer portal opt outs. QB #1 and #2 included! THIRTY ONE! And Ap State was a spectacular 5-7 WITH those 31 players! (It’s not like Ga So is a juggernaut)

Rangers over Hurricanes at +243. Seems like fair line around +165.

Panthers -1.5 at +292. Fair around +210.

I’ve been on a heater with THREE big parlays one game from hitting

Go VANDERBILT
GO TEXAS STATE
GO CHELSEA (soccer).

More! Heat to win. +180. Fair +115
Wild to win. +167. Fair +100
Cavaliers to win. +222. Fair +150.

All 6 I have today EASY to lock in a profit on if you have access to a second account, giving up EV, of course.

Quote: SOOPOO

I’ve stopped posting all the + EV bets, but what the hell…..

Today….. Ga Southern -13.5 over Ap State. -13.5. At a juicy +201. Line seemed WAY high though. Did a little research. Ap State missing THIRTY ONE players due to transfer portal opt outs. QB #1 and #2 included! THIRTY ONE! And Ap State was a spectacular 5-7 WITH those 31 players! (It’s not like Ga So is a juggernaut)

Rangers over Hurricanes at +243. Seems like fair line around +165.

Panthers -1.5 at +292. Fair around +210.

I’ve been on a heater with THREE big parlays one game from hitting

Go VANDERBILT
GO TEXAS STATE
GO CHELSEA (soccer).

More! Heat to win. +180. Fair +115
Wild to win. +167. Fair +100
Cavaliers to win. +222. Fair +150.

All 6 I have today EASY to lock in a profit on if you have access to a second account, giving up EV, of course.
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5/6 at substantial plus odds is mucho $$$!

Today hit the DREAM. Not my biggest bets, but…. Had Coastal Carolina + 9.5. Opponent -8.5, and also money line.

La Tech wins by NINE!

3 +EV single bets so far today. This is officially fun.

Quote: SOOPOO

I

Go VANDERBILT

I knew it. Another Iowa hater. I did take Iowa +5.5.

Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO

I

Go VANDERBILT

I knew it. Another Iowa hater. I did take Iowa +5.5.
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You know I am a mild Iowa State fan? Tourist to Iowa in 1980. I do have Iowa in some hedge type parlays but only got 4.5. Last two + odds boosts hit last night. Pistons -5.5 cruised. And 76ers ML squeezed by in OT thanks to the next NBA superstar, Edgecombe. Both were around +180- +200.

I did have a soccer parlay. Basically needed a 0-0 or 1-1 tie. It was 2-0 after A FEW MINUTES. I got no suspense…

Edit…. so was going to make another hedge bet on Iowa. And boost appears in my offers….. I’m getting +222 on my hedge! Still make more if Vandy wins but some balm if they lose…

Of the non-playoff games, how many bowls will approach 50% attendence?

Quote: billryan

Of the non-playoff games, how many bowls will approach 50% attendence?
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As of today, 19 of the 24 have had attendance less than 30,000.
I’ll bet large chunks of those in attendance were given free tickets as well.

I went to a UB (Buffalo) Bowl game in Toronto a ways back. I literally paid more for a hot dog outside the stadium than the ticket to get in.

The Snoop Bowl was last weekend in Tucson. The announced attendance was 37,000, but many were papered, and witnesses say the pre-game tail gate was better attended—many of those who went into the game left after the halftime performance. The promoter is claiming that six million dollars was raised for a local charity, but I don't know who benefits from it.

The Snoop Bowl was last weekend in Tucson. The announced attendance was 37,000, but many were papered —it was free admission for cops, firefighters, military members, teachers, and a guest —and witnesses say the pre-game tailgate was better attended—many of those who went into the game left after the halftime performance. The promoter claims that six million dollars was raised for a local charity, but I don't know how they measured that. The Snoop Bowl is the only non-profit bowl and is said to have brought over a quarter of a billion dollars into Tucson since it started.

Colts are starting Riley Leonard this weekend instead of Phil rivers like it matters. May they should encourage Tom Brady when he is broadcasting to bring his helmet if thing look to bad lol. One of my coworkers mentioned in the past 11 years the colts have had at least 11 different starting quarterback. He also stated they need a quart back who can throw a football like throwing darts not like how he throws a football.

We’ll see. Now two days in a row without the markedly + EV single boosted bets. Still getting the 30% very slightly +EV parlay boosts, and the occasional 50% easily +EV parlay boosts.

I really don’t understand their business model of offering the single boosts.

Quote: SOOPOO

We’ll see. Now two days in a row without the markedly + EV single boosted bets. Still getting the 30% very slightly +EV parlay boosts, and the occasional 50% easily +EV parlay boosts.

I really don’t understand their business model of offering the single boosts.
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This past week I was given a $20 bet that if lost gave me a free $20 bet. That is the first bonus I got from Hard Rock in over 3 months. At the rate I have been losing, I expect more bonusses will be coming.

Quote: billryan

Of the non-playoff games, how many bowls will approach 50% attendence?
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I saw a game last week was playing near me so I bought a ticket. It was about 2 hours away. Thankfully I double checked the directions which is when I realized the game was not there. It was literally 1000 miles in another state. Thankfully the ticket was only $12.

I recently signed up for Kalshi and Novig. If you are doing straight sports betting it's really the best thing out there I think. The live betting is instant. The liquidity is a little weak on the off markets is the only real downside. They don't really offer any promos but then again no one else is really either. I get decent promos from Fanduel but other than that everything is 3 leg parlay 25% boost minimum +400 odds max $25 bet. Sure is a far cry from 5 years ago when Draftkings would just throw free bets at anyone with a heartbeat. The fact that these sportsbooks have managed to screw the public for so long is really amazing.

Quote: Sandybestdog

The fact that these sportsbooks have managed to screw the public for so long is really amazing.

If being screwed you mean giving me gobs of free money for tapping a few buttons on my phone I wish I could be screwed more often. I’ve detailed literally hundreds of bets, offers, promotions, etc. that allowed $$$$$$ to flow from them to me.

It’s not my fault if ‘the general public’ decides to bet $$$$ on ‘Da Bears’ , or parlay on Allen, Hurts, Williams, Jefferson, to all get TDs. Or if they think that a -200 bet is ‘a sure thing’.

There may be some examples of real ‘screwing’ but i think it’s no different than a land based casino offering games with a built in house edge.

Congratulations. Sounds like you got it all figured out.

Quote: Sandybestdog

Congratulations. Sounds like you got it all figured out.
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And I’ve shared HOW with you and the rest of the forum. It seems like the golden goose may be dead for me though. 4 days now with none of those ridiculous +EV bets. I did get a few 50% profit boosts but they are not nearly as +EV as the single boosts they were giving me.

I’ve thought about your point about them ‘taking advantage’ of the general public. I still think that’s not fair to them. When they have two lines both at -110 I think it is clear how they make money, and should be to the general public. Favorite -200, underdog +160, that’s not deceptive.
I do understand frustration with the opacity of odds on parlays, certain prop bets where there is only a line for one side, etc….
I’d trust an online sportsbook more than the auto mechanic that says I need a new whatchamacallit for $3k. Or a restaurant that says they use real truffle oil. Or someone selling me dice influence lessons. Or any politician telling me anything.

Quote: SOOPOO

I do understand frustration with the opacity of odds on parlays, certain prop bets where there is only a line for one side, etc….

I approached Nevada Gaming with the idea that every sports bet available in Nevada should require both sides to be posted. I was ignored.

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: Sandybestdog

Congratulations. Sounds like you got it all figured out.
link to original post

And I’ve shared HOW with you and the rest of the forum. It seems like the golden goose may be dead for me though. 4 days now with none of those ridiculous +EV bets. I did get a few 50% profit boosts but they are not nearly as +EV as the single boosts they were giving me.

I’ve thought about your point about them ‘taking advantage’ of the general public. I still think that’s not fair to them. When they have two lines both at -110 I think it is clear how they make money, and should be to the general public. Favorite -200, underdog +160, that’s not deceptive.
I do understand frustration with the opacity of odds on parlays, certain prop bets where there is only a line for one side, etc….
I’d trust an online sportsbook more than the auto mechanic that says I need a new whatchamacallit for $3k. Or a restaurant that says they use real truffle oil. Or someone selling me dice influence lessons. Or any politician telling me anything.
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no sites are offering anything good for me now. Are they saving it up for super bowl? I'll certainly wait to see with all

Quote: odiousgambit

no sites are offering anything good for me now. Are they saving it up for super bowl? I'll certainly wait to see with all

Fanduel gave me deposit $8000 get $2000 free bets today. They are the only ones giving me anything right now. But I was just pointing out for straight moneyline betting Kalshi is night and day better than anything out there. Fills are instant. I've been trying courtsiding for awhile. The books are just too good. Maybe some people beat them but I don't know how.

Quote: Sandybestdog

Quote: odiousgambit

no sites are offering anything good for me now. Are they saving it up for super bowl? I'll certainly wait to see with all

Fanduel gave me deposit $8000 get $2000 free bets today. They are the only ones giving me anything right now. But I was just pointing out for straight moneyline betting Kalshi is night and day better than anything out there. Fills are instant. I've been trying courtsiding for awhile. The books are just too good. Maybe some people beat them but I don't know how.
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You should clear over $1k from that FanDuel offer. Nice. I agree that without the bonuses/boosts/etc.. the books are ‘too good.’ If you are doing this to make a living it might be tough. To skim a few $$ not so tough.

The Bills open as road favorites over the Jags.

I virtually never do ‘straight moneyline betting’ so really have no interest in a service like Kalshi.

Quote: SOOPOO

I virtually never do ‘straight moneyline betting’ so really have no interest in a service like Kalshi.
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Me neither. I am willing to make such bets, small ones, at a brick and mortar sportsbook, I find it fun. Online the idea just seems all wrong, just sitting there in your armchair plugging away with 24/7 ability at negative expectation. I generally trust myself with my gambling that it will never be a problem, but ploppie type gambling with a computer at home ... I'm just not going to get into that.

Admittedly I'd feel different if I was a good handicapper, but I am worlds away from that status