Sports betting chatter

I see one bet that I like so far this weekend. Texas Tech is a 48.5 point favorite over Kent State and the total is 58.5. For many years I have been betting overs on games where the total minus the spread is less than 15 points. With only a 10 point delta I will definitely be taking the over.

Quote: DRich

I see one bet that I like so far this weekend. Texas Tech is a 48.5 point favorite over Kent State and the total is 58.5. For many years I have been betting overs on games where the total minus the spread is less than 15 points. With only a 10 point delta I will definitely be taking the over.
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Interesting. Do you have records that show how you've done in these bets? Do you just bet it every time this is true or do you look for other indicators as well?

Quote: SkinnyTony

Quote: DRich

I see one bet that I like so far this weekend. Texas Tech is a 48.5 point favorite over Kent State and the total is 58.5. For many years I have been betting overs on games where the total minus the spread is less than 15 points. With only a 10 point delta I will definitely be taking the over.
link to original post

Interesting. Do you have records that show how you've done in these bets? Do you just bet it every time this is true or do you look for other indicators as well?
link to original post

I do not keep records but it has been pretty good to me. What sticks out about this have is how low the number is. It is very rare to see a number as low as 10. In the early part of the season you will see a few almost every week below 15.

Quote: DRich

Quote: SkinnyTony

Quote: DRich

I see one bet that I like so far this weekend. Texas Tech is a 48.5 point favorite over Kent State and the total is 58.5. For many years I have been betting overs on games where the total minus the spread is less than 15 points. With only a 10 point delta I will definitely be taking the over.
link to original post

Interesting. Do you have records that show how you've done in these bets? Do you just bet it every time this is true or do you look for other indicators as well?
link to original post

I do not keep records but it has been pretty good to me. What sticks out about this have is how low the number is. It is very rare to see a number as low as 10. In the early part of the season you will see a few almost every week below 15.
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I’ll tail you.

My two baseball games won, but the Red Sox game was not at all how my ‘analysis’ had it going. I guess bad pitching beats worse pitching!

But now on to what I really do. LOTS of these type offers pouring in. Using bonuses/boosts/etc…. Got Cowboys +700, Eagles -410. Got Barkley over 89.5 at +134, Barkley under 95.5 at -113. Guaranteed small win with chance for a middle winning both. Had a NRFI +118, YRFI -115. That’s a free latte for me. Freebet turned into $40 cash.
I am limited of course on these offers to now often quite low amounts. But it’s fun, and free $$ is well, free $$!

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: DRich

Quote: SkinnyTony

Quote: DRich

I see one bet that I like so far this weekend. Texas Tech is a 48.5 point favorite over Kent State and the total is 58.5. For many years I have been betting overs on games where the total minus the spread is less than 15 points. With only a 10 point delta I will definitely be taking the over.
link to original post

Interesting. Do you have records that show how you've done in these bets? Do you just bet it every time this is true or do you look for other indicators as well?
link to original post

I do not keep records but it has been pretty good to me. What sticks out about this have is how low the number is. It is very rare to see a number as low as 10. In the early part of the season you will see a few almost every week below 15.
link to original post

I’ll tail you.

My two baseball games won, but the Red Sox game was not at all how my ‘analysis’ had it going. I guess bad pitching beats worse pitching!

But now on to what I really do. LOTS of these type offers pouring in. Using bonuses/boosts/etc…. Got Cowboys +700, Eagles -410. Got Barkley over 89.5 at +134, Barkley under 95.5 at -113. Guaranteed small win with chance for a middle winning both. Had a NRFI +118, YRFI -115. That’s a free latte for me. Freebet turned into $40 cash.
I am limited of course on these offers to now often quite low amounts. But it’s fun, and free $$ is well, free $$!
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As always, we here at Red Sox nation are happy to oblige to help our betting brethren win any way we can!

If I bet sports, I'd always bet the over on any Red Sox game, with their pitching staff.

My bet of the week is Minnesota -1.5 over the Bears on Monday night. This is based on my prognostication skills rather than any data or computer modeling so it's certainly -EV.

Having said that.... Minnesota's pass rush against a QB who holds the ball too long and doesn't quite understand the new offense yet. It's going to be a disaster. I might even make some silly same game parlay involving a lot of sacks, a defensive score and a 17+ pt win if I can get a decent promo to pair it with.

Quote: SkinnyTony

My bet of the week is Minnesota -1.5 over the Bears on Monday night. This is based on my prognostication skills rather than any data or computer modeling so it's certainly -EV.

Having said that.... Minnesota's pass rush against a QB who holds the ball too long and doesn't quite understand the new offense yet. It's going to be a disaster. I might even make some silly same game parlay involving a lot of sacks, a defensive score and a 17+ pt win if I can get a decent promo to pair it with.
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FD. Vikes -16.5. Vikes D TD. Greenard sack. Van Ginkel sack. Around +5000. A dollar and a dream.

DK just offered Barkley TD at +100. Gotta be +EV.

I highly suggest following littleredroosters first 2 week's road dogs data..it makes sense, I believe its +EV.

Line shop, line shop, line shop..

Soopoo sounds like fd isn't even count on ears showing up Minnesota favored by 16.5 last time they played at . Minnesota bears lost 12-30. Last time at soldier they lost 27-30. Vegas insider shows Minnesota by 1.5 total points 43.5

Quote: avianrandy

Soopoo sounds like fd isn't even count on ears showing up Minnesota favored by 16.5 last time they played at . Minnesota bears lost 12-30. Last time at soldier they lost 27-30. Vegas insider shows Minnesota by 1.5 total points 43.5
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Minnesota isn’t favored by 16.5. It’s an ‘alternate line’. The parlay is paying around 50-1 for a reason. All aspects are correlated, at least.

Some interesting stats from this years MLB. With over 75% of the season already in the books, I'd expect the trends will continue.
Thus far in 2025
Teams that do not hit a home run are winning just 31 percent of their games.
Teams that hit one home run win at a 49% pace
Teams that hit two or more homers win over 70 percent of their games.

Is that something that can be exploited?

Quote: billryan

Some interesting stats from this years MLB. With over 75% of the season already in the books, I'd expect the trends will continue.
Thus far in 2025
Teams that do not hit a home run are winning just 31 percent of their games.
Teams that hit one home run win at a 49% pace
Teams that hit two or more homers win over 70 percent of their games.

Is that something that can be exploited?
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Not really. You could say the same about hits, doubles, triples, walks, any kind of offense. You're just saying that runs win games, and hits and baserunners lead to runs.

No. This has nothing to do with runs. It deals only with home runs. Teams that hit two home runs in a game win at a rate of 70%, while teams that hit one win at almost a 50% rate.

Home runs are a category of runs, and teams that hit 2 home runs will on average have at least one more run than a team who has only hit one. That's enough to account for the difference.

Football teams that score 4 touchdowns in a game win significantly more often than teams that score only 3, despite the fact that there are other ways to score.

One run is a lot in baseball, and if you look at the stats for average runs scored per game for each team, they are all within 1 run of the league average. Which suggests that if you spotted the lousy teams 1 run at the beginning of the game they would have win/loss records like the good teams. On defense, with the exception of the Rockies all the teams give up less than one run plus or minus the league average.

Or to put it in blackjack terms, if you are playing a 6D game that is busy you might get an average of one natural per shoe. The shoes where you got two naturals, I like your odds of being ahead for that shoe. But all that means is "When you get more than your share of naturals, you're more likely to be having a good session." There's no way to exploit that fact alone, and it is true for both skilled and unskilled players.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2025.shtml

Teams that score the most runs win 100% of their games.
Teams that hit two or more home runs win 70% of their games.

You can't know until the end of the game which team will score the most runs, but armed with the knowledge that once a team hits two home runs, it will win seven of ten times, a small bet might work out. In the event both teams hit two, you just bet the other team as well.

The Yankees are 44-20 when they hit two or more home runs. If you'd made 64 midgame bets as soon as the second home run was hit, you'd have won 44 of them. Even if most of them paid less than even money, wouldn't that still show a profit? Is it reasonable to expect that trend to continue? I don't bet on sports so while I know you can make a bet midgame, I have no idea what a $10 bet winning bet would pay

Quote: billryan

Teams that score the most runs win 100% of their games.
Teams that hit two or more home runs win 70% of their games.

You can't know until the end of the game which team will score the most runs, but armed with the knowledge that once a team hits two home runs, it will win seven of ten times, a small bet might work out. In the event both teams hit two, you just bet the other team as well.

The Yankees are 44-20 when they hit two or more home runs. If you'd made 64 midgame bets as soon as the second home run was hit, you'd have won 44 of them. Even if most of them paid less than even money, wouldn't that still show a profit? Is it reasonable to expect that trend to continue? I don't bet on sports so while I know you can make a bet midgame, I have no idea what a $10 bet winning bet would pay
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You are assuming that it has predictive power, which is not the case. It's just that scoring runs is correlated with winning, and hitting home runs causes runs to be scored. If you bet on a team after they already have a lead the odds are adjusted accordingly.