FiliusBruce
FiliusBruce
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September 16th, 2022 at 12:40:09 PM permalink
I'm interested in an online calculator that takes multi-way American odds (like the odds published by a Sportsbook on each team winning the NFL) and converts it to no-vig true probabilities.

I could find two-way and three-way calculators such as these two below, but nothing that supports four or more outcomes. Does anyone know of such a tool?

Here's a two-way calculator:
https://unabated.com/betting-calculators/no-vig-fair-odds-calculator

Here's a three-way calculator:
https://www.gamingtoday.com/tools/3-way-fair-odds-no-vig/
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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September 16th, 2022 at 2:28:19 PM permalink
Maybe not quite what you wanted, but here is something that I found:

https://arbitragecalc.com/

Note 1: After typing in the relevant odds, just put 100 in the "white stake cell", and it will give you chance figures*** in the "stake column" ("green stake cells").

***: Shows the equivalent of the correct % chance figure, to 2 decimal places (when using 100 as the figure in the "white stake cell").

Note 2: Click on "more bets" to add more odds (i have tested it up to 13).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Sep 16, 2022
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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September 16th, 2022 at 3:34:53 PM permalink
I made a "two-way" spread sheet, that anyone can use, error check, improve on, etc.

Note: If you are good enough at working with spread sheets, you should be able to convert it to a "multi-way" one yourself.

To download, click on the link_here and look for the files starting with "No_Vig..."
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Sep 16, 2022
DRich
DRich
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September 16th, 2022 at 3:53:02 PM permalink
Quote: FiliusBruce

I'm interested in an online calculator that takes multi-way American odds (like the odds published by a Sportsbook on each team winning the NFL) and converts it to no-vig true probabilities.

I could find two-way and three-way calculators such as these two below, but nothing that supports four or more outcomes. Does anyone know of such a tool?

Here's a two-way calculator:
https://unabated.com/betting-calculators/no-vig-fair-odds-calculator

Here's a three-way calculator:
https://www.gamingtoday.com/tools/3-way-fair-odds-no-vig/
link to original post



For something like odds to win the Superbowl Just add the inverse of each teams odds and total them up.

Take that total and subtract it from 1. That is the total hold for the sportsbook. Let's assume it is 20%. Add 20% to each teams odds and that would be roughly the fair number/

eg.

Buffalo 6/1 = 0.1666
KC 7/1 = 0.142
..
..
..
..
Houston 150/1 = 0.0066

total those up and assume they come out to 0.80. 1-0.80 = 0.20 (20%)

Buffalo is now 0.166+0.033 = 0.20 which 1/.20 = 5/1
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
Ace2
Ace2
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September 16th, 2022 at 9:45:22 PM permalink
Quote: DRich



For something like odds to win the Superbowl Just add the inverse of each teams odds and total them up.

Take that total and subtract it from 1. That is the total hold for the sportsbook. Let's assume it is 20%. Add 20% to each teams odds and that would be roughly the fair number/

eg.

Buffalo 6/1 = 0.1666
KC 7/1 = 0.142
..
..
..
..
Houston 150/1 = 0.0066

total those up and assume they come out to 0.80. 1-0.80 = 0.20 (20%)

Buffalo is now 0.166+0.033 = 0.20 which 1/.20 = 5/1
link to original post

100% wrong

Using the lines listed, add up the implied probabilities for each team and the total will always be MORE than 1. If, for example, the total is 1.2 then the vig is 1 - 1 / 1.2 = 16.7%

If Buffalo is quoted at 6/1 (+600) then that’s an implied probability of 1/7 = 14.3%. Remove the juice by multiplying 7 * 1.2 to get 8.4 for 1 (+740) as a fair line and 1/8.4 = 11.9% as the implied probability without juice.

Stripping out the juice obviously makes the payout higher (not lower) and therefore makes the implied probability lower (not higher)

OP: no need for an appointment online tool. You can calculate this in excel in a minute
Last edited by: Ace2 on Sep 16, 2022
It’s all about making that GTA
DRich
DRich
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Joined: Jul 6, 2012
September 17th, 2022 at 6:08:12 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: FiliusBruce

I'm interested in an online calculator that takes multi-way American odds (like the odds published by a Sportsbook on each team winning the NFL) and converts it to no-vig true probabilities.

I could find two-way and three-way calculators such as these two below, but nothing that supports four or more outcomes. Does anyone know of such a tool?

Here's a two-way calculator:
https://unabated.com/betting-calculators/no-vig-fair-odds-calculator

Here's a three-way calculator:
https://www.gamingtoday.com/tools/3-way-fair-odds-no-vig/
link to original post



For something like odds to win the Superbowl Just add the inverse of each teams odds and total them up.

Take that total and subtract it from 1. That is the total hold for the sportsbook. Let's assume it is 20%. Add 20% to each teams odds and that would be roughly the fair number/

eg.

Buffalo 6/1 = 0.1666
KC 7/1 = 0.142
..
..
..
..
Houston 150/1 = 0.0066

total those up and assume they come out to 0.80. 1-0.80 = 0.20 (20%)

Buffalo is now 0.166+0.033 = 0.20 which 1/.20 = 5/1.
Edited: Subtract 20% don't add it

Buffalo is now 0.166-0.033 = 0.133 which 1/..133 = 7.5/1
link to original post

At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
DRich
DRich
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Joined: Jul 6, 2012
September 17th, 2022 at 6:09:47 AM permalink
deleted
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
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