ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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May 24th, 2022 at 3:45:56 AM permalink
I had a "Futures bet" to do with a team making it to the NFC Championship game, and it got me thinking what are some "good / likely +EV" bets, that are not worth having (mainly because there are better places to tie up funds) ?

One example would probably be this one below:
There is a bet available where I can get "any team to go 17-0 in regular season" in the NFL @ -5,000 ($1.02) for the "No side".

Note 1: One reason this is not "worth having" (even though it is likely +EV) is because, I can get the equivalent of 2% interest in the same amount of time with a term deposit.

Note 2: Any words in underline above have been added after original post was written.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on May 24, 2022
DRich
DRich
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ksdjdj
May 24th, 2022 at 3:54:04 AM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

I had a "Futures bet" to do with a team making it to the NFC Championship game, and it got me thinking what are some "good / likely +EV" bets, that are not worth having (mainly because there are better places to tie up funds) ?

One example would probably be this one below:
There is a bet available where I can get "any team to go 17-0 in regular season" @ -5,000 ($1.02) for the "No side".

Note: One reason this is not "worth having" (even though it is likely +EV) is because, I can get the equivalent of 2% interest in the same amount of time with a term deposit.
link to original post



Just curious where you are getting 2% guaranteed interest?
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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May 24th, 2022 at 4:11:53 AM permalink
I know that pretty much no investment is "truly safe", but after a quick search I can get at least 2.75% p.a. with an Australian*** one

***: It is the Macquarie Bank term deposit (I live in Australia, so that is why I am using an Australian one in the example) see link here if you want more details >>> https://www.finder.com.au/term-deposits

Note: I don't plan on having any of my money in a term deposit at this time, as it was just one example of a "likely safer option for a similar amount of return on investment and time..." .
billryan
billryan 
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May 24th, 2022 at 6:32:57 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: ksdjdj

I had a "Futures bet" to do with a team making it to the NFC Championship game, and it got me thinking what are some "good / likely +EV" bets, that are not worth having (mainly because there are better places to tie up funds) ?

One example would probably be this one below:
There is a bet available where I can get "any team to go 17-0 in regular season" @ -5,000 ($1.02) for the "No side".

Note: One reason this is not "worth having" (even though it is likely +EV) is because, I can get the equivalent of 2% interest in the same amount of time with a term deposit.
link to original post



Just curious where you are getting 2% guaranteed interest?
link to original post



30-year US bonds are paying 9%. The hard part is circumventing their max purchases.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
Ace2
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May 24th, 2022 at 10:39:36 AM permalink
There are CDs paying over 2%. Most have 5 year terms though so probably not worth it unless early withdraw penalties are low
It’s all about making that GTA
Venthus
Venthus
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May 24th, 2022 at 10:44:20 AM permalink
How about an I bond? Those are like 9% right now, and there's only a 3mo penalty if you withdraw before 5 years. Even with the penalty, they're better than most 'sure' investments at the one-year mark.

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res_ibonds.htm
Ace2
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May 24th, 2022 at 11:31:03 AM permalink
Quote: Venthus

How about an I bond? Those are like 9% right now, and there's only a 3mo penalty if you withdraw before 5 years. Even with the penalty, they're better than most 'sure' investments at the one-year mark.

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res_ibonds.htm
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Wow, sounded to good to be true. And it is since the max purchase is $10,000 per year
It’s all about making that GTA
camapl
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May 24th, 2022 at 11:32:22 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

30-year US bonds are paying 9%. The hard part is circumventing their max purchases.
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Talk to darkoz… He’s good at multicarding! lol
It’s a dog eat dog world. …Or maybe it’s the other way around!
billryan
billryan 
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May 24th, 2022 at 1:13:35 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: Venthus

How about an I bond? Those are like 9% right now, and there's only a 3mo penalty if you withdraw before 5 years. Even with the penalty, they're better than most 'sure' investments at the one-year mark.

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res_ibonds.htm
link to original post

Wow, sounded to good to be true. And it is since the max purchase is $10,000 per year
link to original post



If you are married, you can do $20,000 and you can do an additional $5,000 without too many hoops. It would be nice to be able to park more, but it is what it is.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
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