ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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May 24th, 2022 at 3:45:56 AM permalink
I had a "Futures bet" to do with a team making it to the NFC Championship game, and it got me thinking what are some "good / likely +EV" bets, that are not worth having (mainly because there are better places to tie up funds) ?

One example would probably be this one below:
There is a bet available where I can get "any team to go 17-0 in regular season" in the NFL @ -5,000 ($1.02) for the "No side".

Note 1: One reason this is not "worth having" (even though it is likely +EV) is because, I can get the equivalent of 2% interest in the same amount of time with a term deposit.

Note 2: Any words in underline above have been added after original post was written.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on May 24, 2022
DRich
DRich
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ksdjdj
May 24th, 2022 at 3:54:04 AM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

I had a "Futures bet" to do with a team making it to the NFC Championship game, and it got me thinking what are some "good / likely +EV" bets, that are not worth having (mainly because there are better places to tie up funds) ?

One example would probably be this one below:
There is a bet available where I can get "any team to go 17-0 in regular season" @ -5,000 ($1.02) for the "No side".

Note: One reason this is not "worth having" (even though it is likely +EV) is because, I can get the equivalent of 2% interest in the same amount of time with a term deposit.
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Just curious where you are getting 2% guaranteed interest?
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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May 24th, 2022 at 4:11:53 AM permalink
I know that pretty much no investment is "truly safe", but after a quick search I can get at least 2.75% p.a. with an Australian*** one

***: It is the Macquarie Bank term deposit (I live in Australia, so that is why I am using an Australian one in the example) see link here if you want more details >>> https://www.finder.com.au/term-deposits

Note: I don't plan on having any of my money in a term deposit at this time, as it was just one example of a "likely safer option for a similar amount of return on investment and time..." .
billryan
billryan 
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May 24th, 2022 at 6:32:57 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: ksdjdj

I had a "Futures bet" to do with a team making it to the NFC Championship game, and it got me thinking what are some "good / likely +EV" bets, that are not worth having (mainly because there are better places to tie up funds) ?

One example would probably be this one below:
There is a bet available where I can get "any team to go 17-0 in regular season" @ -5,000 ($1.02) for the "No side".

Note: One reason this is not "worth having" (even though it is likely +EV) is because, I can get the equivalent of 2% interest in the same amount of time with a term deposit.
link to original post



Just curious where you are getting 2% guaranteed interest?
link to original post



30-year US bonds are paying 9%. The hard part is circumventing their max purchases.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Ace2
Ace2
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May 24th, 2022 at 10:39:36 AM permalink
There are CDs paying over 2%. Most have 5 year terms though so probably not worth it unless early withdraw penalties are low
It’s all about making that GTA
Venthus
Venthus
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May 24th, 2022 at 10:44:20 AM permalink
How about an I bond? Those are like 9% right now, and there's only a 3mo penalty if you withdraw before 5 years. Even with the penalty, they're better than most 'sure' investments at the one-year mark.

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res_ibonds.htm
Ace2
Ace2
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May 24th, 2022 at 11:31:03 AM permalink
Quote: Venthus

How about an I bond? Those are like 9% right now, and there's only a 3mo penalty if you withdraw before 5 years. Even with the penalty, they're better than most 'sure' investments at the one-year mark.

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res_ibonds.htm
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Wow, sounded to good to be true. And it is since the max purchase is $10,000 per year
It’s all about making that GTA
camapl
camapl
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May 24th, 2022 at 11:32:22 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

30-year US bonds are paying 9%. The hard part is circumventing their max purchases.
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Talk to darkoz… He’s good at multicarding! lol
Expectation is the root of all heartache.
billryan
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May 24th, 2022 at 1:13:35 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: Venthus

How about an I bond? Those are like 9% right now, and there's only a 3mo penalty if you withdraw before 5 years. Even with the penalty, they're better than most 'sure' investments at the one-year mark.

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res_ibonds.htm
link to original post

Wow, sounded to good to be true. And it is since the max purchase is $10,000 per year
link to original post



If you are married, you can do $20,000 and you can do an additional $5,000 without too many hoops. It would be nice to be able to park more, but it is what it is.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
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