Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown 2022

Quote: billryan

The Preakness is much more of a sprint than the other two races and I'd think a closer would do better in the Belmont.

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the Preakness is not even close to being a sprint - it's only one sixteenth of a mile shorter than the Derby

it's farther than most U.S. thoroughbreds have ever run in their lives - most never run further than 9 furlongs - the Preakness is 9.5 furlongs

a furlong is one eighth of a mile

there are very few thoroughbreds who have run 1.5 miles on dirt - the length of the Belmont

but you're right - you would think a closer is more suited for the Belmont Stakes - that still doesn't excuse the owner

and there's a very good chance that what you think might happen won't happen in the Belmont Stakes - even with a strong closer there is still a great deal of unpredictability



Rich Strike, as great as his performance was in the Derby has not been a consistent horse

he has only 2 wins in 8 races and one was in a very low level Maiden Claiming race

his record includes a 5th place finish and a 4th place finish in low level stakes races

his great Derby performance may have happened because he has improved - he is of the age when he could become physically stronger very quickly

or maybe not - maybe his inconsistency will again show itself


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Spend a Buck

The Preakness is shorter than the Derby, thus the reference to a sprint. It's traditionally favored speed.
Strike It Rich's people think they don't have a horse capable of winning the TC. They are doing what they think is best for their horse.
It must be hard, as I doubt they will ever be in a position to go after a multi-million dollar bonus. I'm pretty sure most trainers would roll the die and take a chance, which is why racing has become such a deadly sport.

Quote: billryan

The Preakness is shorter than the Derby, thus the reference to a sprint. It's traditionally favored speed.

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the image is some data on the last 15 winners of the Preakness
as you can see it's hardly a sure thing that speed will prevail - it's not exact but it fairly closely correlates to all of racing
speed winning the Preakness is an overrated, overstated thing
stuff for major network announcers with perfect hair to say

7 of the 15 winners - almost half - were 4th or worse after the first half mile

one was 6th, one was 8th and one was 7th after a half mile

the first column is the position after the first half mile___________the 2nd column is the half mile and 3/4 mile times which are faster than average but probably mainly because these are the best 3 year olds in the nation

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I think he wanted to be a triple crown winning jockey but had the misfortune of growing 7 feet tall, so decided to win the NBA MVP instead.

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the Preakness field is set as are the post positions and the morning line - a field of 9 runners
pretty disappointing - in addition to Rich Strike not showing up, neither is Zandon who also made a late run and got 3rd in the Derby
Epicenter is the big fave

female fans will likely get excited by a filly in the race - Secret Oath - and she is very tough
she got 3rd against the Colts in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby and was unrealistically bet way down to 7/5 suggesting betting based on sentiment, not reality

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it's obvious that based on PPs Epicenter is the best horse in the race - too obvious
he's finished 1st or 2nd in all of his last 6 races and 4 of them were graded stakes events

unless one of his rivals has greatly improved because of physical development as Rich Strike apparently did - but that is something that is impossible to predict - it's also possible that Epicenter will improve and become a truly great older horse

the filly, Secret Oath, will likely be way overbet due to her gender helping the price on Epicenter from being crushed too far down
fillies are smaller than colts and even if they're just as fast they don't like the bumping and jostling that many colts either like or don't mind - and they will often back off
there were a few, very few, truly great fillies who were exceptions
only 11 fillies have won a Triple Crown race in 146 years

if Epicenter goes off at even money or better I will bet on him - otherwise I will just watch the race - I don't want to take a risk for a too short payout

if I ending up betting I will bet to Place and to Win, and I will bet 8 times as much on Place as on Win so I will still have a profit if he gets nailed at the wire

experience has led me to leave the exotics alone - the frustration factor is more than I want to handle - others love the exotics - I make no judgements - would just note that the exotics always carry a significantly higher takeout than Win, Place, Show

I did like an exacta in the Derby and that was an exception - the 20 horse field made it possible to get a 5 horse box with the most logical contenders that had the potential to pay off nicely - Rich Strike foiled my plan - no tears - that's just racing

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Quote: lilredrooster

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if Epicenter goes off at even money or better I will bet on him - otherwise I will just watch the race - I don't want to take a risk for a too short payout
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With two of the books that I can bet with (In Australia) it is $1.90 and $2 (even money) at the time of this post.

Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: lilredrooster

(snip)
if Epicenter goes off at even money or better I will bet on him - otherwise I will just watch the race - I don't want to take a risk for a too short payout
(snip)
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With two of the books that I can bet with (In Australia) it is $1.90 and $2 (even money) at the time of this post.
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thanks for the info

for Triple Crown events there is lots of soft money in the pools - people who only bet at this time

the soft money tends to move towards shots and away from the logical choices - but that is far from guaranteed

but I think there is a pretty fair chance he will go off at even money or better

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Below are the horses I bet on (or against)

Secret Oath 400 each way @ +550 (potential results are +2640 if the horse wins, +40 if the horse comes 2nd or 3rd, and -800 all other results).
Early Voting 1200 @ -400 to "not win the race"
Epicenter 1000 @ +110 to win.