Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown 2022
May 13th, 2022 at 6:18:26 AM
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That is the problem with racing. It tries to build stars and then they don't race anymore. I understand the economics don't make sense to risk millions in stud fees but imagine if the NFL's MVP and its Rookie of the Year both retired as soon as they broke out with the public.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
May 13th, 2022 at 6:49:38 AM
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_____________
I strongly disagree with this owner's decision not to run Rich Strike in the Preakness - it's a terrible decision
this horse has a chance to win the Triple Crown, maybe not a big chance, but nonetheless a chance
winning the Triple Crown is something that captures of the interest of millions of fans - who otherwise don't give a sh____ about racing
and it would cement the Jockey's and Trainer's place in sports history along with the horse of course
this is a racehorse plenty strong enough to endure this - there is a risk of injury but not really more than in any other race -
ridiculous
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I strongly disagree with this owner's decision not to run Rich Strike in the Preakness - it's a terrible decision
this horse has a chance to win the Triple Crown, maybe not a big chance, but nonetheless a chance
winning the Triple Crown is something that captures of the interest of millions of fans - who otherwise don't give a sh____ about racing
and it would cement the Jockey's and Trainer's place in sports history along with the horse of course
this is a racehorse plenty strong enough to endure this - there is a risk of injury but not really more than in any other race -
ridiculous
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Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 13, 2022
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
May 13th, 2022 at 6:58:44 AM
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Is it to protect the horse or to protect his investment in the horse? I know nothing of the horse, but assume it isn't gelded, so it's future is at stud, not in racing. The industry needs to solve this problem if they are to ever recapture the public imagination.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
May 13th, 2022 at 12:57:47 PM
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If Rich Strike runs in the Preakness and finishes near the back of the pack it would decrease his value. Right now his value has increased tremendously, so why risk it. I think the owners know his chance of failure at the Preakness is likely.
50-50-90 Rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there is a 90% probability you'll get it wrong
May 13th, 2022 at 1:22:08 PM
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Quote: vegasIf Rich Strike runs in the Preakness and finishes near the back of the pack it would decrease his value. Right now his value has increased tremendously, so why risk it. I think the owners know his chance of failure at the Preakness is likely.
link to original post
well, that's true what you're saying -
but if every owner looked at it that way there would never be a Triple Crown winner and the fans would suffer
the owner is probably filthy rich anyway - even if for some reason he couldn't get the $$$ he thought was fair for his horse
plus I think he's aiming at the Belmont stakes about 4 weeks away - so how much would he increase the chance of injury by running in the Preakness?
I don't know - I would guess not by a whole lot
and also, the Belmont is even more unpredictable than the Preakness because it's a distance most horses never race in their lives - 1.5 miles - a quarter mile longer than the Derby and even more than that longer than the Preakness
although this is a horse whose style is to come running late - so there is some logic to it
you would think an owner would want to consider something besides himself - to try to give something back to the sport and the fans
not to think to himself - I've got be sure that I'm worth $55 million and not just $ 49 million
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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
May 13th, 2022 at 1:34:54 PM
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Running the three races in five weeks is very challenging. There is a reason only a handful of horses have done it successfully.
I suspect the owners do this for bragging rights, not money., and certainly not for the fans.
I suspect the owners do this for bragging rights, not money., and certainly not for the fans.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
May 13th, 2022 at 1:38:27 PM
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Quote: billryanRunning the three races in five weeks is very challenging. There is a reason only a handful of horses have done it successfully.
I suspect the owners do this for bragging rights, not money., and certainly not for the fans.
link to original post
it's good to remember - these are not ordinary races - these are maybe the greatest races in the whole world based on fan interest
this horse, being an 80/1 shot in the Derby would generate tremendous interest
if the powers that be in racing feel that this guy is selfish - which I'm guessing that they do - well -
paybacks are hell - and they have all kinds of ways to mess with the guy
I don't think it's ever happened before - that a horse who won the Derby and was in good physical condition skipped the Preakness -
not to my knowledge
astonishing
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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
May 13th, 2022 at 1:57:12 PM
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I guess they can't force an owner to enter a horse in a specific race.... But now the interest in the Preakness will be as close to zero as it could be. I have mentioned this before..... The horse just ran TWO MINUTES! These horses don't sit on their fetlocks watching Oprah between races. They run around, sometimes officially, every day! The top human athletes who run shorter races that last around the same two minutes sometimes have to run two or three different heats in a few days time. I just don't get that a horse can't 'recover' from the two minute race in 14 days. Especially since over the last century a dozen or so have won the triple crown doing exactly that! What is actually going to happen to Rich Strike between day 14 and 35? Just ridiculous!
The Derby champ missing the Preakness is just pathetic.
The Derby champ missing the Preakness is just pathetic.
May 13th, 2022 at 2:12:44 PM
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Quote: SOOPOOI guess they can't force an owner to enter a horse in a specific race.... But now the interest in the Preakness will be as close to zero as it could be. I have mentioned this before..... The horse just ran TWO MINUTES! These horses don't sit on their fetlocks watching Oprah between races. They run around, sometimes officially, every day! The top human athletes who run shorter races that last around the same two minutes sometimes have to run two or three different heats in a few days time. I just don't get that a horse can't 'recover' from the two minute race in 14 days. Especially since over the last century a dozen or so have won the triple crown doing exactly that! What is actually going to happen to Rich Strike between day 14 and 35? Just ridiculous!
The Derby champ missing the Preakness is just pathetic.
link to original post
not only that - the guy has stated that he is aiming for the Belmont Stakes - although it's not written in stone
if his horse doesn't win the Belmont, and there's a pretty fair chance of that - his prestige and the value of the horse will be less than if he had won the Preakness and lost the Belmont
the guy has given his horse and himself one less chance to have a greater legacy - what a moron
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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
May 13th, 2022 at 2:55:45 PM
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In the 1980s, if I remember correctly, there was a horse that won the Derby but then choose to run in a race in New Jersey. There was a big bonus that was involved. As a result, they came up with a Triple Crown bonus that was supposed to prevent this from happening.
The Preakness is much more of a sprint than the other two races and I'd think a closer would do better in the Belmont.
I assume the trainer doesn't think he has the horse to win all three and is going with the race he has the best shot at and with extra rest.
The Preakness is much more of a sprint than the other two races and I'd think a closer would do better in the Belmont.
I assume the trainer doesn't think he has the horse to win all three and is going with the race he has the best shot at and with extra rest.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
May 13th, 2022 at 3:42:44 PM
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Quote: billryan
The Preakness is much more of a sprint than the other two races and I'd think a closer would do better in the Belmont.
link to original post
the Preakness is not even close to being a sprint - it's only one sixteenth of a mile shorter than the Derby
it's farther than most U.S. thoroughbreds have ever run in their lives - most never run further than 9 furlongs - the Preakness is 9.5 furlongs
a furlong is one eighth of a mile
there are very few thoroughbreds who have run 1.5 miles on dirt - the length of the Belmont
but you're right - you would think a closer is more suited for the Belmont Stakes - that still doesn't excuse the owner
and there's a very good chance that what you think might happen won't happen in the Belmont Stakes - even with a strong closer there is still a great deal of unpredictability
Rich Strike, as great as his performance was in the Derby has not been a consistent horse
he has only 2 wins in 8 races and one was in a very low level Maiden Claiming race
his record includes a 5th place finish and a 4th place finish in low level stakes races
his great Derby performance may have happened because he has improved - he is of the age when he could become physically stronger very quickly
or maybe not - maybe his inconsistency will again show itself
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Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 13, 2022
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
May 14th, 2022 at 6:23:43 AM
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Spend a Buck
May 14th, 2022 at 7:49:29 AM
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The Preakness is shorter than the Derby, thus the reference to a sprint. It's traditionally favored speed.
Strike It Rich's people think they don't have a horse capable of winning the TC. They are doing what they think is best for their horse.
It must be hard, as I doubt they will ever be in a position to go after a multi-million dollar bonus. I'm pretty sure most trainers would roll the die and take a chance, which is why racing has become such a deadly sport.
Strike It Rich's people think they don't have a horse capable of winning the TC. They are doing what they think is best for their horse.
It must be hard, as I doubt they will ever be in a position to go after a multi-million dollar bonus. I'm pretty sure most trainers would roll the die and take a chance, which is why racing has become such a deadly sport.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
May 14th, 2022 at 9:42:35 AM
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Quote: billryanThe Preakness is shorter than the Derby, thus the reference to a sprint. It's traditionally favored speed.
link to original post
the image is some data on the last 15 winners of the Preakness
as you can see it's hardly a sure thing that speed will prevail - it's not exact but it fairly closely correlates to all of racing
speed winning the Preakness is an overrated, overstated thing
stuff for major network announcers with perfect hair to say
7 of the 15 winners - almost half - were 4th or worse after the first half mile
one was 6th, one was 8th and one was 7th after a half mile
the first column is the position after the first half mile___________the 2nd column is the half mile and 3/4 mile times which are faster than average but probably mainly because these are the best 3 year olds in the nation
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Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 14, 2022
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
May 15th, 2022 at 1:45:50 PM
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I think he wanted to be a triple crown winning jockey but had the misfortune of growing 7 feet tall, so decided to win the NBA MVP instead.
May 17th, 2022 at 2:07:16 AM
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the Preakness field is set as are the post positions and the morning line - a field of 9 runners
pretty disappointing - in addition to Rich Strike not showing up, neither is Zandon who also made a late run and got 3rd in the Derby
Epicenter is the big fave
female fans will likely get excited by a filly in the race - Secret Oath - and she is very tough
she got 3rd against the Colts in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby and was unrealistically bet way down to 7/5 suggesting betting based on sentiment, not reality
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the Preakness field is set as are the post positions and the morning line - a field of 9 runners
pretty disappointing - in addition to Rich Strike not showing up, neither is Zandon who also made a late run and got 3rd in the Derby
Epicenter is the big fave
female fans will likely get excited by a filly in the race - Secret Oath - and she is very tough
she got 3rd against the Colts in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby and was unrealistically bet way down to 7/5 suggesting betting based on sentiment, not reality
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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
May 20th, 2022 at 3:18:22 AM
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______________
it's obvious that based on PPs Epicenter is the best horse in the race - too obvious
he's finished 1st or 2nd in all of his last 6 races and 4 of them were graded stakes events
unless one of his rivals has greatly improved because of physical development as Rich Strike apparently did - but that is something that is impossible to predict - it's also possible that Epicenter will improve and become a truly great older horse
the filly, Secret Oath, will likely be way overbet due to her gender helping the price on Epicenter from being crushed too far down
fillies are smaller than colts and even if they're just as fast they don't like the bumping and jostling that many colts either like or don't mind - and they will often back off
there were a few, very few, truly great fillies who were exceptions
only 11 fillies have won a Triple Crown race in 146 years
if Epicenter goes off at even money or better I will bet on him - otherwise I will just watch the race - I don't want to take a risk for a too short payout
if I ending up betting I will bet to Place and to Win, and I will bet 8 times as much on Place as on Win so I will still have a profit if he gets nailed at the wire
experience has led me to leave the exotics alone - the frustration factor is more than I want to handle - others love the exotics - I make no judgements - would just note that the exotics always carry a significantly higher takeout than Win, Place, Show
I did like an exacta in the Derby and that was an exception - the 20 horse field made it possible to get a 5 horse box with the most logical contenders that had the potential to pay off nicely - Rich Strike foiled my plan - no tears - that's just racing
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it's obvious that based on PPs Epicenter is the best horse in the race - too obvious
he's finished 1st or 2nd in all of his last 6 races and 4 of them were graded stakes events
unless one of his rivals has greatly improved because of physical development as Rich Strike apparently did - but that is something that is impossible to predict - it's also possible that Epicenter will improve and become a truly great older horse
the filly, Secret Oath, will likely be way overbet due to her gender helping the price on Epicenter from being crushed too far down
fillies are smaller than colts and even if they're just as fast they don't like the bumping and jostling that many colts either like or don't mind - and they will often back off
there were a few, very few, truly great fillies who were exceptions
only 11 fillies have won a Triple Crown race in 146 years
if Epicenter goes off at even money or better I will bet on him - otherwise I will just watch the race - I don't want to take a risk for a too short payout
if I ending up betting I will bet to Place and to Win, and I will bet 8 times as much on Place as on Win so I will still have a profit if he gets nailed at the wire
experience has led me to leave the exotics alone - the frustration factor is more than I want to handle - others love the exotics - I make no judgements - would just note that the exotics always carry a significantly higher takeout than Win, Place, Show
I did like an exacta in the Derby and that was an exception - the 20 horse field made it possible to get a 5 horse box with the most logical contenders that had the potential to pay off nicely - Rich Strike foiled my plan - no tears - that's just racing
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Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 20, 2022
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
May 20th, 2022 at 3:48:32 AM
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Quote: lilredrooster(snip)
if Epicenter goes off at even money or better I will bet on him - otherwise I will just watch the race - I don't want to take a risk for a too short payout
(snip)
link to original post
With two of the books that I can bet with (In Australia) it is $1.90 and $2 (even money) at the time of this post.
May 20th, 2022 at 4:04:32 AM
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Quote: ksdjdjQuote: lilredrooster(snip)
if Epicenter goes off at even money or better I will bet on him - otherwise I will just watch the race - I don't want to take a risk for a too short payout
(snip)
link to original post
With two of the books that I can bet with (In Australia) it is $1.90 and $2 (even money) at the time of this post.
link to original post
thanks for the info
for Triple Crown events there is lots of soft money in the pools - people who only bet at this time
the soft money tends to move towards shots and away from the logical choices - but that is far from guaranteed
but I think there is a pretty fair chance he will go off at even money or better
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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
May 21st, 2022 at 1:54:56 PM
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Below are the horses I bet on (or against)
Secret Oath 400 each way @ +550 (potential results are +2640 if the horse wins, +40 if the horse comes 2nd or 3rd, and -800 all other results).
Early Voting 1200 @ -400 to "not win the race"
Epicenter 1000 @ +110 to win.
Secret Oath 400 each way @ +550 (potential results are +2640 if the horse wins, +40 if the horse comes 2nd or 3rd, and -800 all other results).
Early Voting 1200 @ -400 to "not win the race"
Epicenter 1000 @ +110 to win.
May 21st, 2022 at 3:18:59 PM
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Quote: ksdjdjBelow are the horses I bet on (or against)
Secret Oath 400 each way @ +550 (potential results are +2640 if the horse wins, +40 if the horse comes 2nd or 3rd, and -800 all other results).
Early Voting 1200 @ -400 to "not win the race"
Epicenter 1000 @ +110 to win.
link to original post
real interesting
I don't have a book that offers "not win the race"
I don't want to jinx your bet but I would have plunged on the filly, Secret Oath to "not win the race"
her lone try against the boys in the Arkansas Derby she earned the comment "flattened" and her Equibase speed figure was way down from her other races against the girls
I just don't think she has the toughness to win this
but anyway, Good Luck on your bet - I've been wrong many, many times so you definitely have a shot
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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
May 21st, 2022 at 3:41:31 PM
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I joined a syndicate that has a total pool of $300. I know we have Happy Jack and Fenwick across the board and a quinella with Happy Jack and the rest of the field, and a couple of triples with those two. I'm not sure I get anything if we win, or it is all going to charity but at least I have some skin in the game. I've no idea how they picked those horses, it was peer pressure that made me do it.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
May 21st, 2022 at 3:59:56 PM
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Quote: lilredroosterQuote: ksdjdj(snip)
Early Voting 1200 @ -400 to "not win the race"
(snip)
link to original post
(snip)
I don't have a book that offers "not win the race"
I don't want to jinx your bet but I would have plunged on the filly, Secret Oath to "not win the race"
(snip)
link to original post
Yeah, I had another $1000 @ -500 on Early Voting^^^ to "not win", but I mainly did this because I had 200 @ +577 with Betfair***, on the same horse to win.
^^^: After doing this, my overall risk for Early Voting is now -1045 / +300 to "not win the race".
***; Betfair charges a commission on "net winnings per event", the odds that I got before the com was about +608.
If I wanted any decent money on Secret Oath "not to win", then I would have needed to lay it at -740.
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I just had Epicenter to come in the top three 1500 to win 300
Note: If you get odds better than -800 to come in the top 3 for the favorite, then that should be +EV, IMO.
May 21st, 2022 at 4:35:44 PM
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Even though I had a bad result on the "big race", I will either lose about $100 or win $750*** for the day, if Street Lamp comes in the top three (Charles Town race 1)
*** Edit (~1645, Pac Time) : Meant to say "... win $650 if Street Lamp comes in top three"
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Update (~1645, Pac Time):
Most races I would bet about 1k to 1.5k, but I only had 550 to win 200 on Street Lamp (top 3) because I usually bet about 40% to 50% of my "normal bet" in "Maiden or near Maiden type" races.
*** Edit (~1645, Pac Time) : Meant to say "... win $650 if Street Lamp comes in top three"
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Update (~1645, Pac Time):
Most races I would bet about 1k to 1.5k, but I only had 550 to win 200 on Street Lamp (top 3) because I usually bet about 40% to 50% of my "normal bet" in "Maiden or near Maiden type" races.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on May 21, 2022
May 22nd, 2022 at 12:33:46 AM
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kinna interesting - to me anyway - to take a look at the parimutuel pools for these big events - and of course there were millions bet outside of these pools
the chart is not up yet for the Preakness
for the Derby -
about $75 million bet into the Win, Place, Show pool
about $26 million into the Exacta pool
about $33 million into the Trifecta pool
and about $15 million into the Superfecta pool________________________wow
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https://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=CD&raceDate=05/07/2022&cy=USA&rn=12
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kinna interesting - to me anyway - to take a look at the parimutuel pools for these big events - and of course there were millions bet outside of these pools
the chart is not up yet for the Preakness
for the Derby -
about $75 million bet into the Win, Place, Show pool
about $26 million into the Exacta pool
about $33 million into the Trifecta pool
and about $15 million into the Superfecta pool________________________wow
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https://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=CD&raceDate=05/07/2022&cy=USA&rn=12
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Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 22, 2022
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
May 22nd, 2022 at 2:45:42 PM
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Quote: lilredrooster(snip)
the chart is not up yet for the Preakness
(snip)
link to original post
The chart appears to be up now (I think this is the one you are looking for?): https://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/PIM052122USA13.pdf
May 22nd, 2022 at 2:55:55 PM
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If they had had a reverse quinnella, we would have cleaned up as both of my horses didn't show up to race.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
May 25th, 2022 at 2:54:24 AM
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____________
linked is a great article about how all the soft money in the Preakness crazily bet the shots way down
probably because they wrongly felt Rich Strike's win in the Derby at 80/1 meant shots had great value
the shots mentioned in the article that they bet down finished last, 2nd to last, 3rd to last and 5th to last
the only horse beaten by any of the shots was Simplification, who got nosed out of 5th by Skippylongstocking_____________~:/
in the old days when horse racing was the dominant form of gambling the soft money was much bigger, making it a lot easier for sharps to get an edge on ordinary Saturdays
from the article:
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"Crazy, yes. But this was exceptional. How was Fenwick, a maiden winner still eligible for “a other than” races who was 50-1 on the morning line, actually 7-1 on Saturday morning before he finally closed as a 13-1 underlay?
Gramm said it was not just Fenwick. He said bettors lumped Happy Jack (11-1), Skippylongstocking (12-1) and Armagnac (18-1) into the pari-mutuel conversation.
“All four of the long shots were really, really over-bet,” he said. “Happy Jack should have been about 45-1. Fenwick should have been between 60-1 and 70-1. They reduced win takeout by 11.84 percent. Remarkable.”
https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/Explaining_all_the_weird_betting_on_Preakness_2022_123
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linked is a great article about how all the soft money in the Preakness crazily bet the shots way down
probably because they wrongly felt Rich Strike's win in the Derby at 80/1 meant shots had great value
the shots mentioned in the article that they bet down finished last, 2nd to last, 3rd to last and 5th to last
the only horse beaten by any of the shots was Simplification, who got nosed out of 5th by Skippylongstocking_____________~:/
in the old days when horse racing was the dominant form of gambling the soft money was much bigger, making it a lot easier for sharps to get an edge on ordinary Saturdays
from the article:
.
"Crazy, yes. But this was exceptional. How was Fenwick, a maiden winner still eligible for “a other than” races who was 50-1 on the morning line, actually 7-1 on Saturday morning before he finally closed as a 13-1 underlay?
Gramm said it was not just Fenwick. He said bettors lumped Happy Jack (11-1), Skippylongstocking (12-1) and Armagnac (18-1) into the pari-mutuel conversation.
“All four of the long shots were really, really over-bet,” he said. “Happy Jack should have been about 45-1. Fenwick should have been between 60-1 and 70-1. They reduced win takeout by 11.84 percent. Remarkable.”
https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/Explaining_all_the_weird_betting_on_Preakness_2022_123
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Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 25, 2022
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
June 8th, 2022 at 1:38:35 AM
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field, morning line, post positions set for Belmont Stakes:
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field, morning line, post positions set for Belmont Stakes:
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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
June 8th, 2022 at 3:04:02 AM
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Quote: lilredrooster____________
linked is a great article about how all the soft money in the Preakness crazily bet the shots way down
probably because they wrongly felt Rich Strike's win in the Derby at 80/1 meant shots had great value... (snip)
link to original post
Here is a link to do with "favorite longshot bias", that you (and others) may find interesting.
June 8th, 2022 at 4:36:16 AM
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Quote: ksdjdjQuote: lilredrooster____________
linked is a great article about how all the soft money in the Preakness crazily bet the shots way down
probably because they wrongly felt Rich Strike's win in the Derby at 80/1 meant shots had great value... (snip)
link to original post
Here is a link to do with "favorite longshot bias", that you (and others) may find interesting.
link to original post
that is a great study that I have been aware of for many years
I know you bet sports - it might interest you to know that the exact opposite happens in sports as shown by various studies on all the major sports by the Wiz
the underdog has greater value - in fact you can see on his link on NFL betting that in tracking about 2,000 bets he found that away dogs have a positive return of 2.57% which is pretty astonishing to me - here is the link
https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/
another interesting thing about parlays - at least 2 team parlays in the NFL - I don't bet parlays but I believe the payout is $260 or close to $260 on a $100 bet which means the profit is $160
but what if instead you do your own 2 team parlay with $100
100/1.10 = 90.90 - we'll say 91
then the 2nd leg if win
191/1.10 = $173.63 - we'll say $173
add your original $100 and that makes $273 - a greater profit of $173
of course it's not possible to do your own 2 team parlay if the teams play at the same time - but if not you can
not sure if this holds for parlays with a greater no. of teams
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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
June 8th, 2022 at 2:12:38 PM
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Quote: lilredroosterQuote: ksdjdjQuote: lilredrooster____________
linked is a great article about how all the soft money in the Preakness crazily bet the shots way down
probably because they wrongly felt Rich Strike's win in the Derby at 80/1 meant shots had great value... (snip)
link to original post
Here is a link to do with "favorite longshot bias", that you (and others) may find interesting.
link to original post
that is a great study that I have been aware of for many years
I know you bet sports - it might interest you to know that the exact opposite happens in sports as shown by various studies on all the major sports by the Wiz
the underdog has greater value - in fact you can see on his link on NFL betting that in tracking about 2,000 bets he found that away dogs have a positive return of 2.57% which is pretty astonishing to me - here is the link
https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/
another interesting thing about parlays - at least 2 team parlays in the NFL - I don't bet parlays but I believe the payout is $260 or close to $260 on a $100 bet which means the profit is $160
but what if instead you do your own 2 team parlay with $100
100/1.10 = 90.90 - we'll say 91
then the 2nd leg if win
191/1.10 = $173.63 - we'll say $173
add your original $100 and that makes $273 - a greater profit of $173
of course it's not possible to do your own 2 team parlay if the teams play at the same time - but if not you can
not sure if this holds for parlays with a greater no. of teams
.
link to original post
I was aware of the "favorite longshot bias" in horse racing, but I think that is the first time I have read what was in that link I posted in my previous reply.
Also, I think you did the calc wrong for the "do your own 2 team parlay", I think it is +360 (on parlay cards) and if you do them manually (when possible, eg different times) then it is closer to about +364
Edit: I meant +260 and +264 above (see strike through)
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jun 8, 2022
June 8th, 2022 at 3:57:49 PM
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Quote: ksdjdjQuote: lilredroosterQuote: ksdjdjQuote: lilredrooster____________
linked is a great article about how all the soft money in the Preakness crazily bet the shots way down
probably because they wrongly felt Rich Strike's win in the Derby at 80/1 meant shots had great value... (snip)
link to original post
Here is a link to do with "favorite longshot bias", that you (and others) may find interesting.
link to original post
that is a great study that I have been aware of for many years
I know you bet sports - it might interest you to know that the exact opposite happens in sports as shown by various studies on all the major sports by the Wiz
the underdog has greater value - in fact you can see on his link on NFL betting that in tracking about 2,000 bets he found that away dogs have a positive return of 2.57% which is pretty astonishing to me - here is the link
https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/
another interesting thing about parlays - at least 2 team parlays in the NFL - I don't bet parlays but I believe the payout is $260 or close to $260 on a $100 bet which means the profit is $160
but what if instead you do your own 2 team parlay with $100
100/1.10 = 90.90 - we'll say 91
then the 2nd leg if win
191/1.10 = $173.63 - we'll say $173
add your original $100 and that makes $273 - a greater profit of $173
of course it's not possible to do your own 2 team parlay if the teams play at the same time - but if not you can
not sure if this holds for parlays with a greater no. of teams
.
link to original post
Also, I think you did the calc wrong for the "do your own 2 team parlay", I think it is +360 (on parlay cards) and if you do them manually (when possible, eg different times) then it is closer to about +364.
link to original post
you're right - my calc was wrong - it's more profit when you do it yourself but not that much
while the favorite/longshot bias exists - I don't believe it's of great usefulness to a bettor
to find an overlay at 4/5 you would have to believe the horse's true odds are 3/5 - or at 8/5 the true odds are 6/5 - that's not likely - there's just not a lot of room for error
while extreme shots are usually bad bets - it's much easier to find a horse at 5/1 who you believe the true odds are 4/1
there are no long term winners that I'm aware of that focus their betting on odds on or even money faves - I've never heard of such a thing
and there aren't many long term winners at all - I think mainly some computer syndicates - the takeout is just too overwhelming and because of negative changes in racing itself the fields are small making it much harder to find overlays
the other day I saw that Belmont sent off a race with just 3 horses - absolutely ridiculous - so many races go off with just 5 or 6 horses - sucks
I thought racing was going to die - there are so many older players who for obvious reasons fade out of the picture - but it's not dying - just not doing well - very surprising to me that it's doing as well as it is
.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Jun 8, 2022
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
June 11th, 2022 at 12:56:54 AM
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_____________
will be betting Mo Donegal to Place and to Win
will bet much more to Place so I'll have a profit if he gets 2nd but doesn't get the win
it's not the main reason I bet him but it's certainly a factor:
his jock, Irad Ortiz Jr. is the no. 1 jock in the country both in dollars earned and in win and in the money %
.
will be betting Mo Donegal to Place and to Win
will bet much more to Place so I'll have a profit if he gets 2nd but doesn't get the win
it's not the main reason I bet him but it's certainly a factor:
his jock, Irad Ortiz Jr. is the no. 1 jock in the country both in dollars earned and in win and in the money %
.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
June 11th, 2022 at 12:15:46 PM
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I'll put $100 on Rich Strike to WIN.
June 11th, 2022 at 7:38:14 PM
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Quote: lilredrooster_____________
will be betting Mo Donegal to Place and to Win
will bet much more to Place so I'll have a profit if he gets 2nd but doesn't get the win
it's not the main reason I bet him but it's certainly a factor:
his jock, Irad Ortiz Jr. is the no. 1 jock in the country both in dollars earned and in win and in the money %
.
link to original post
Congrats on wagering on Mo Donegal!
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
June 12th, 2022 at 2:59:37 AM
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good call rooster. Congrats
June 12th, 2022 at 10:37:17 AM
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Rich Strike is indeed a very strange bird
the only other race he ever won other than the Derby was a Maiden Claimer - the very lowest rung of racing
a Maiden race is a race for horses that have never won - and Claimer means the horse can be bought before the race for a cheap price
other than the Derby and that Maiden Claimer his finishes were - 10, 3, 5, 3, 4 and 6
he was never really even close to winning another race and none of those other races were at very high levels except the Belmont
his speed in the Derby was way beyond anything else he ever did
in all my very many years of betting horses I've never before seen anything like this
.
Rich Strike is indeed a very strange bird
the only other race he ever won other than the Derby was a Maiden Claimer - the very lowest rung of racing
a Maiden race is a race for horses that have never won - and Claimer means the horse can be bought before the race for a cheap price
other than the Derby and that Maiden Claimer his finishes were - 10, 3, 5, 3, 4 and 6
he was never really even close to winning another race and none of those other races were at very high levels except the Belmont
his speed in the Derby was way beyond anything else he ever did
in all my very many years of betting horses I've never before seen anything like this
.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Jun 12, 2022
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
June 12th, 2022 at 7:36:55 PM
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The owner and jockey goofed up with Rich Strike. They specifically chose to stay off the rail on the stretch and the jockey was fighting Strike pulling for the inside the whole way. That cost them tons of speed, IMO.
Aut inveniam viam aut faciam
