Advice hedging Super Bowl bet?

Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: Wiggins

Quote: SOOPOO

Question…. How do you maximize EV? I’ve been betting my free bets on around 3-1 or 4-1 underdogs.

Stole this graph from a discord server. The guy who posted it knows his stuff. OP did well with his Rams bet!


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(snip: cut my part of the quote /reply from here and pasted it near the bottom of this post, so I didn't have to quote it twice in the same reply)

factor not included: skyrocketing variance as you go from that +100 to +3100

solution: huge bankroll and vast number of 'trials' [so to speak]

it's a problem
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You are right, definitely a factor***.
***:At "fair odds", having 5 bets @ 4/1 has about a 67.2% chance of at least one winning,
and having 30 bets @ 29/1 has about a 63.8% chance of at least one winning.

But the main reason for me is that "really big prices are generally bad value, compared to the estimated chances / historical data^^^ "

^^^: See link below, about the "Safety bet in the Super Bowl"

https://www.espn.com.au/chalk/story/_/id/33195033/super-bowl-betting-unlikely-play-swing-millions-dollars

Note: I know the article above is about a "prop bet", but it holds fairly true for most bets "with a small estimated chance of winning".

Note 2: I know this may seem like a bad example since they are in the Super Bowl now, but at the start of the season the Bengals were 100/1+ with most books, yet 499/1 to 599/1 was probably closer to the correct odds at that time (according to what was traded on betfair at the time).

Quote: ksdjdj

Great stuff, especially when there is no "vig" in the odds.
But I think the "sweet-spot" is somewhere between $4 and $21 (3-1 and 20-1).
I will expand on this later, if you want to know why I think this (gtg).
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To find the "Sweet Spot": it is already partly explained above (generally the shorter the odds on offer, the closer they are to "fair odds "). But most bonuses don't include the bonus as part of the return if you win (which is why the graph posted by Wiggins is also fairly accurate### , for this type and similar bonuses).

###: Except you also have to take into account that if +100 is offered, then the bookie thinks that the fair win chance is probably around 48%, so the EV of betting a $100 bonus @ +100 is probably around $48 (instead of $50).

Also, lets say a bookie offers you "fair odds" for a game with Team A @ -400 and Team B @ +400.
Using this type of bonus on Team A would be worth "20% x the value of the bonus", but Team B would be worth "80% x the value of the bonus". Therefore, for that game Team B would have the better bonus EV.

Quote: Wiggins

Quote: SOOPOO

Question…. How do you maximize EV? I’ve been betting my free bets on around 3-1 or 4-1 underdogs.

Stole this graph from a discord server. The guy who posted it knows his stuff. OP did well with his Rams bet!


link to original post

As ksjdj pointed out your graph works IF there is no built in vig, but alas, in the real world of online sportsbooks they of course build in a vig. For the really small free bets, like $10, I'm taking 4-1 or so dogs. The larger ones where I want to avoid the variance I'm giving up some EV by taking small dogs, or even even money bets.

Once again... for the OP.... your decision can be based solely on guaranteeing a certain win, but when I have such an opportunity I tend to only partially hedge. Maybe guarantee $200 win, but still exceed $1k if Rams win. Heck.... how about this....

Bet $550 on Bengals +4.5 to win $500 (at -110)

3 possible outcomes...

A. Rams win by 5 or more You win $700
B. Rams win by 1-4. You win $1700
C. Bengals win You win $650

That would make it quite fun for you watching!

Quote: SOOPOO

As ksjdj pointed out your graph works IF there is no built in vig, but alas, in the real world of online sportsbooks they of course build in a vig. For the really small free bets, like $10, I'm taking 4-1 or so dogs. The larger ones where I want to avoid the variance I'm giving up some EV by taking small dogs, or even even money bets.

It's not hard to find off-market lines on DK with good value. It's your money so do what you want, but using free bets on even-money or small dogs is lighting cash on fire.

Quote: Wiggins

Quote: SOOPOO

As ksjdj pointed out your graph works IF there is no built in vig, but alas, in the real world of online sportsbooks they of course build in a vig. For the really small free bets, like $10, I'm taking 4-1 or so dogs. The larger ones where I want to avoid the variance I'm giving up some EV by taking small dogs, or even even money bets.

It's not hard to find off-market lines on DK with good value. It's your money so do what you want, but using free bets on even-money or small dogs is lighting cash on fire.
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How big do you go? +500? +1000? More?

I sort of knew that.... but I'm still learning....

Thanks for the perhaps needed slap in the face....

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: Wiggins

Quote: SOOPOO

As ksjdj pointed out your graph works IF there is no built in vig, but alas, in the real world of online sportsbooks they of course build in a vig. For the really small free bets, like $10, I'm taking 4-1 or so dogs. The larger ones where I want to avoid the variance I'm giving up some EV by taking small dogs, or even even money bets.

It's not hard to find off-market lines on DK with good value. It's your money so do what you want, but using free bets on even-money or small dogs is lighting cash on fire.
link to original post

How big do you go? +500? +1000? More?

I sort of knew that.... but I'm still learning....

Thanks for the perhaps needed slap in the face....
link to original post

This reply is just about "maximizing the EV of the bonus" (for the "stake not included in the return" type of bonus).

There is no hard and fast rule, but using a site like betfair is a good start to work out the estimated chances.
Then from there you would see which one has the best bonus EV, by multiplying the estimated chance by the odds (see "good choice for tonight" below):

See "Sacramento Kings money line" odds in the link here >>> Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors - Tonight

"Good choice for tonight": Using the "Kings - money line" in the above link combined with betfair, I get the following estimated EV for the bonus:
Estimated win chance (at the time of this post using betfair): ~11%
Odds on offer (at the time of this post using the above link): +700 (Kings - money line)
Estimated bonus bet value: " estimated win chance x odds " = 11% x +700 = 11% x 7 = 77%
Therefore the bet on the Kings is worth about 77% x the value of the bonus bet.

Note 1: I have no opinion on this game, but it is probably the best one to bet on tonight from a "maximizing bonus EV" point of view.

Note 2: EV isn't the only thing to consider, but if you are allowed to split your bonus into "small enough parts to have a decent chance of at least one bet winning" or "if you have plenty of money and only care about maximizing the value", then it is the most important factor.

Note 3: IMO, the expected win rate is the next most important factor to consider. Using a bonus, would you rather^*^ bet on something at 10000/1 that has a 0.008% chance of winning, or something at 10/1 that has a 7.8% chance of winning.
^*^: I personally would rather bet on the 10/1 option, even though the EV is 2% better on the 10000/1 option (78% EV vs 80% EV) mainly because at similar estimated EVs, I prefer the "lower variance option".

Note 4: I haven't mentioned "bonus bets and bank roll management", but there has been plenty written about that on this site in other threads (some people would say this is more important than maximizing EV, but it all depends on what your goal is).

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Update (about 605 pm, Pac Time):

Even though it is obvious which is the better one to have a bonus bet on, I will compare the above with betting on the Lakers money line, in the link here >>> LOS ANGELES LAKERS AT LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS - Tonight

Using the "Lakers - money line" in the above link combined with betfair, I get the following estimated EV for the bonus:
Estimated win chance (at the time of this post using betfair): ~42.37%
Odds on offer (at the time of this post using the above link): +140 (Lakers - money line)
Estimated bonus bet value: " estimated win chance x odds " = 42.37% x +140 = 42.37% x 1.4 = ~ 59.32%
Therefore the bet on the Lakers is worth about 59.32% x the value of the bonus bet.

77% - 59.32% = 17.68%, so the bonus bet EV is 17.68% better betting on the Kings - money line.

Side Note: This is interesting to me, but according to the estimated chances using betfair, the Lakers - money line has an estimated RTP slightly above 100%, when betting with "real money" rather than "bonus funds".

Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
Side Note: This is interesting to me, but according to the estimated chances using betfair, the Lakers - money line has an estimated RTP slightly above 100%, when betting with "real money" rather than "bonus funds".
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At the time of this post, after watching betfair for the last few minutes, the estimated chances for the Lakers went about as low as 39%, but have now stabilized to a bit above 40%, and the Kings went to 11.5%, but are now back to 11%.

Ty very much Wiggins and ksdjdj. I guess I was aware…. but just want to ‘feel good’ about winning more often than 10% of the time, even though I understand I ‘should have’ bet on the Kings. I did do a few parlays that won…. taking 4 around even money bets got me to a long enough shot…. and certainly feels better than betting on the worst team in basketball to beat the second best team. My parlay today is two for two…. but the third game I have Kings +13.5. I think they are down 18 mid second quarter…..

DK gives tons of free bets. I have just spread mine around on NBA title futures. As long as Nets don’t win I should be in good shape.

Quote: SOOPOO

Ty very much Wiggins and ksdjdj. I guess I was aware…. but just want to ‘feel good’ about winning more often than 10% of the time, even though I understand I ‘should have’ bet on the Kings. I did do a few parlays that won…. taking 4 around even money bets got me to a long enough shot…. and certainly feels better than betting on the worst team in basketball to beat the second best team. My parlay today is two for two…. but the third game I have Kings +13.5. I think they are down 18 mid second quarter…..
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For bonus bets, there is nothing wrong with betting on parlays, it is better EV*** wise than having the Lakers (or any team) @ +140, in relation to "bonus EV".

***: For a winning 4-team parlay, as long as you get paid ~9.5/1 (or more) then it is better than betting "any one team" @ +140.

Also, the Kings bet was just one example of a "good +EV bet for that type of bonus".

Lastly, I would probably have done it like this (if I had received that bonus):

. Bet Kings 7/1 with the Book that is offering the bonus.
. Bet Warriors 0.114/1^^^ with Betfair to lock in an "equal profit no matter who wins",

^^^: 0.12/1 before the 5% commission (I don't know if you can bet with betfair in the US, the same way we can in Australia).

If someone did it the above way, then they would have locked in about "71.6% x the value of the bonus bet", instead of an estimated EV of ~77% (though, the 71.6% would have been a guaranteed profit).

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Going by the scores on ESPN, they have currently brought it back to 12 points behind, 9:55 to go in the 4th quarter (so good luck, hope you win).

----
Update:
Now back to 18 points behind with 8:02 to go, hope they rally again.

Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: SOOPOO

Ty very much Wiggins and ksdjdj. I guess I was aware…. but just want to ‘feel good’ about winning more often than 10% of the time, even though I understand I ‘should have’ bet on the Kings. I did do a few parlays that won…. taking 4 around even money bets got me to a long enough shot…. and certainly feels better than betting on the worst team in basketball to beat the second best team. My parlay today is two for two…. but the third game I have Kings +13.5. I think they are down 18 mid second quarter…..
link to original post

For bonus bets, there is nothing wrong with betting on parlays, it is better EV*** wise than having the Lakers (or any team) @ +140, in relation to "bonus EV".

***: For a winning 4-team parlay, as long as you get paid ~9.5/1 (or more) then it is better than betting "any one team" @ +140.

Also, the Kings bet was just one example of a "good +EV bet for that type of bonus".

Lastly, I would probably have done it like this (if I had received that bonus):

. Bet Kings 7/1 with the Book that is offering the bonus.
. Bet Warriors 0.114/1^^^ with Betfair to lock in an "equal profit no matter who wins",

^^^: 0.12/1 before the 5% commission (I don't know if you can bet with betfair in the US, the same way we can in Australia).

If someone did it the above way, then they would have locked in about "71.6% x the value of the bonus bet", instead of an estimated EV of ~77% (though, the 71.6% would have been a guaranteed profit).

----
Going by the scores on ESPN, they have currently brought it back to 12 points behind, 9:55 to go in the 4th quarter (so good luck, hope you win).

----
Update:
Now back to 18 points behind with 8:02 to go, hope they rally again.
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So when the Kings were down around 10 I hedged and got Warriors -11.5! They ended up winning by 12 , so I won the parlay AND the hedge. Plus my other +EV bet of Lakers +3 (+EV because I get a bonus for ‘bench points scored’) also was a big comeback to cover.

I have a bunch of offers for extra value on SB prop bets. I think we usually make a separate thread for those so I’ll wait to discuss my options.