beat the NBA spread

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I noticed from the Wizard's NBA stats (linked) that overall betting on road teams reduced the house edge to 2.69%

I also noticed that there was only a small, insignificant difference between betting dogs or faves

I wondered if by betting all road teams who either got or gave up 4 points or less would improve the battle against the house edge

I used covers.com to track about the first 100 games of 2 different seasons as indicated above

I will continue tracking and posting results until I have the results of about 400 games

here we go:




2019-2020 NBA season from Oct. 4 to Nov. 18 - betting all road teams who got or gave up 4 points or less_______


55-46_____________54.5% wins_______________R.O.I. = 4.05%




2020-2021 NBA season from Dec. 11 to Jan. 20__________betting all road teams who got or gave up 4 points or less


57-45______________55.8% wins_______________R.O.I. = 6.53%




combined__________112-91_________55.1% wins_____________R.O.I. = 5.19 %




Edit - pushes not considered
I believe Covers.com quotes the most common line from several large books at gametime
I tracked only about the first 100 games of a season where the line is as indicated because I wanted to complete it all at one time and I would get bored doing the entire season - my thinking was it would reduce the chance that I would make any errors



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https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nba/


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well, my idea tanked after doing the first 100 games that met the criteria for 2 other seasons

one season went 50-50 and the other 46-54

back to the old drawing board - my NFL thing is still going very strong - will have the season's results after the final week of the regular season


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I’m guessing that trends aren’t nearly as strong/reliable in basketball since the money wagered on individual games is far less than football. You’ll need far more than 100 games for statistical significance

Quote: Ace2

You’ll need far more than 100 games for statistical significance

yes, but I had 400 games
I'm pretty sure it's not a winner
I knew it was a long shot when I started it
the Wizard's stats re the away team weren't nearly as strong as his stats for the NFL road dogs
he tracked over 2,000 games and had them beating the spread and profitable by 2.57%

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