kewlj
kewlj
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January 5th, 2022 at 11:25:46 AM permalink
So yesterday, both Mike McCarthy and Stephan Jones (Jerry's son) said the Cowboys will be playing starters and going all out trying to win the game Saturday night. I think they are either blowing smoke or will come to realize the risk far outweighs the reward and change their mind.

The Cowboys are currently a 4 seed. Moving up to a 3 seed is almost insignificant. Only moving up to a 2 seed matters as far as home game in the second round barring a major upset. So for the Cowboys to move up from the 4 seed to the 2 seed, they need to win AND have two teams in front of them lose. Those teams are the Rams and Tampa Bay, both who play home games and are favored to win and both who will be trying to win to get that same 2 seed.

So that is a lot to ask. The Cowboys need to win and have not 1 but 2 other teams be upset at home. And the risk: Well what if Zak Prescott gets hurt? They lost one of their top 3 receivers last week for the remainder of year, what if a second goes down?

I suspect when all is said and done both the Eagles and Cowboys will be resting starters in a prime time Saturday night game. Kind of a glorified pre-season game.
moses
moses
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January 5th, 2022 at 2:06:48 PM permalink
As a #4 seed the Cowboys will play either Arizona or LA Rams. As a 3 seed Cowboys will play Eagles, Saints or 49ers. In the NFC semi finals. As a #4 they will play in Green Bay. As a 3 seed they get another home game if 2 seed looses in the 1st round.
moses
moses
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January 5th, 2022 at 2:27:49 PM permalink
Re-seeding: Home field is determined by seeding number, not position on the bracket. The NFL does not use a fixed bracket system; the outcome of the Wild Card games determine the matchups of the Divisional playoffs games, with the lowest remaining seed in each conference traveling to the first seed, and the second-lowest remaining seed traveling to the second-highest remaining seed.

ONE article said the NFL will not reseed. This article appears it will reseed.
kewlj
kewlj
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January 5th, 2022 at 2:41:23 PM permalink
Quote: moses


ONE article said the NFL will not reseed. This article appears it will reseed.


The NFL re-seeds. When a game is going on, they always show the 2 possibilities. If Team A wins they play xx and if team B wins they play YY.

In past years seeds 1 and 2 had the big advantage because they received a bye and guaranteed home feild in second round. This year with this new suckier format, only #1 seed gets that rather large advantage. there is still advantage in #2 because while you have to play an extra game from previous years, you will have 2 home games if you win.

3 and 4 the advantage is a home game first round. You are probably on the road second round. #3 could get a second round home game if there is an upset, but a 1 or 2 losing it's home game is a pretty big upset.

So there just isn't a huge advantage in going from 4 to 3. If you can get to #2 yes, but like I said the cowboys need to win and have two other home favorites lose to get to #2.

They probably beat the Eagles without their starters anyway. I definitely wouldn't Risk dak Prescott, wide receivers Cooper and Lamb when you are already down a top receiver. I would also rest a couple of the linemen, especially offensive that have been battling different injuries for weeks.

If you play prescott, have him get hurt in a game you win 38-10....season over!

It is always about risk vs reward. Too much risk for very little chance of reward. Settle into the 4 seed, a home game and after that, get ready to beat 2 of the 3 teams in front of you because that is what it is going to come down to anyway.
moses
moses
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January 5th, 2022 at 3:13:04 PM permalink
Thanks for clarification. So the Cowboys are thinking a win could avoid LA Rams or Arizona. If Rams and Cards both lose. Cowboys have the tie breaker against the Rams if they beat Eagles.

That is what the Coach and Owners son must be thinking. I think I'd meet with the key players for an overall consensus. Pretty sure Eagles are resting Jalen Hurts as he recovers from a minor injury. He hasn't pratice yet this week.. Not sure about other key players.

The interesting games are Sunday afternoon when the 49ers vs Rams. Seahawks vs Cards. Saints at Falcons.

Alot of scoreboard watching in that time period.

Indy -15.5 over Jags will seal the AFC top 6 in the morning. Wentz won't screw this up. Plus Colts have the top rusher in the NFL with over 1700 yards.
billryan
billryan 
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January 5th, 2022 at 3:43:57 PM permalink
In 2007, the Giants had clinched a playoff spot and finished the season playing the Patriots who were undefeated. Almost everyone expected the G-Men to rest their starters as they had a road playoff game the next week. Instead, they came out balls to the wall and lost a barn burner of a game 38-35. The coach credited that game with showing the Giants they could hang with the big dogs and they went on to win three straight road games to earn a rematch and in true Cinderella fashion prevented the Pats from finishing their perfect season. It was one of the biggest upsets in NFL history until they did it again four years later.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
moses
moses
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January 5th, 2022 at 3:55:52 PM permalink
On the flip side. It's a fairly long flight to Plilly. Dak is injury prone. Plus covid could affect the following weeks game. I'd go with bare minimums to make the game and the rest stay home.
DRich
DRich
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January 6th, 2022 at 6:35:37 AM permalink
Quote: moses

On the flip side. It's a fairly long flight to Plilly. Dak is injury prone. Plus covid could affect the following weeks game. I'd go with bare minimums to make the game and the rest stay home.
link to original post



I was going to dispute that it was a long flight but instead I Googled it. I am shocked that it is 1300 miles.
Order from chaos
moses
moses
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January 6th, 2022 at 8:29:08 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: moses

On the flip side. It's a fairly long flight to Plilly. Dak is injury prone. Plus covid could affect the following weeks game. I'd go with bare minimums to make the game and the rest stay home.
link to original post



I was going to dispute that it was a long flight but instead I Googled it. I am shocked that it is 1300 miles.
link to original post



Funny from an NFL map. Dallas is east. And Detroit is Central.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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January 6th, 2022 at 8:47:55 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: ksdjdj

Here are my "to make the playoffs" odds for the remaining NFC teams still "in the hunt" :

49ers (9-7): ~$1.69 / -144
Saints (8-8): $2.44 / +144

Note: I will try and do an AFC "odds ... to make the playoffs" post in the next couple of days (it will take a bit longer to work out).
link to original post


Going to work soon, so I am just posting my current estimated odds for the Colts / Jags game

Colts (9-7): ~$1.15 (-670)
Jags (2-14): $7.70 (+670)

Note: I had a "smallish" / $200 to win $210 bet on the Jags @ +14.5 ATS, and $60 to win $480 ML.
link to original post


My odds estimates for all of the AFC games with at least one team still "in the hunt":

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Steelers (8-7-1): $2.96 (+196)
Ravens (8-8): ~$1.51 (-196)

Note: I have the Ravens between a ~57% and a ~78% chance of winning, with Lamar in as QB^^^.
^^^: If Lamar Jackson (currently questionable) is out, then I have an average estimate of Steelers +103 / Ravens -103.

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Colts (9-7): ~$1.17 (-590)
Jags (2-14): $6.90 (+590)

Note: I have the Jags between a ~13% and a ~18% chance of winning.
Also Note: The above odds are different to the previous ones of "-670/+670", because those are the odds that I used to work out if I think "there is value in betting on a particular team in any game" (see example below)

Example: Using the above "Jag chances of winning", I would only consider betting on the Jags, if I could get about +670 (or better) and the Colts, if I could get about -450 (or better).


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Chargers(9-7): ~$1.76 (-132)
Raiders (9-7): $2.32 (+132)

Note: I have the Raiders between a ~39% and a ~50% chance of winning.

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Sorry, but it looks like I won't be posting the odds for the teams "in the hunt to make the playoffs" like I said in earlier posts, as I have Covid .

But below are some links that can help you work it out, if you want to use my "estimated game odds", or your own / someone else's estimates.

General:

https://www.espn.com.au/nfl/insider/story/_/id/33001020/nfl-game-plans-seven-win-week-18-matchups-keys-victory-colts-49ers-chargers-other-playoff-hopefuls

https://www.kansascity.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/for-petes-sake/article257037867.html <<< ^^^

^^^: You can probably just use this for all teams left "in the hunt" ( it would have been great if I found this one first in my searches)

Steelers:
https://www.steelers.com/news/steelers-latest-playoff-scenario-x2987
https://www.sportskeeda.com/nfl/how-can-steelers-make-2021-nfl-playoffs

Ravens:
https://www.baltimoreravens.com/news/here-s-the-ravens-narrow-path-to-the-playoffs
https://ebonybird.com/2022/01/04/ravens-playoff-odds-increase-slightly/

Colts:
https://www.colts.com/news/nfl-playoffs-scenarios-clinching-seeding-afc-week-18-chargers-raiders
https://www.bigcatcountry.com/2022/1/6/22870183/5-questions-with-stampede-blue-can-the-colts-make-a-playoff-run-jaguars

Chargers:
https://www.kansascity.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/for-petes-sake/article257037867.html <<< "A win or tie against the Raiders will get the Chargers in the playoff field. As noted, the Chargers will also make the postseason with a tie if the Colts lose."
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/chargers-playoff-chances-afc-wild-card-2021/w3luk3rdgb4t11u0m0vuqeg7d

Raiders:
https://www.kansascity.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/for-petes-sake/article257037867.html <<< "The Raiders will be in with a win. Theyíre also in with a tie and a Colts loss. A third path for the Raiders involves a Colts loss and a Steelers loss or tie."
https://raiderswire.usatoday.com/2022/01/02/the-raiders-can-make-playoffs-even-without-beating-chargers-in-week-18/

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Spelling/grammar not checked.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 6, 2022

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