Wizard
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Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdj
January 9th, 2022 at 9:24:32 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

My total bet is now: $500 to win $9000 on the Raiders, to win by 3 points.
link to original post



Congratulations!!!
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 89
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January 10th, 2022 at 2:45:24 AM permalink


Team "Raw" / Estimated Odds
Packers $4.65
Chiefs $5.62
Bills $9.83
Titans $9.36
Buccaneers $9.33
Rams $15.9
Cowboys $14.2
Bengals $23.3
49ers $30.5
Patriots $29.8
Cardinals $37.3
Raiders $89
Steelers $124
Eagles $119


Note: All odds above are posted in decimal odds.

Note 2: The "Estimated Odds" are my "attempts at posting an unbiased average using various sites"

Note 3: I will post at least one early and one late "game odds estimate" for each game.

----
Early Game Odds Estimates - "Wild Card Week":

Raiders: ~$3.69 (+269)
Bengals: ~$1.37 (-269)

Note: Bengals between 68% and 79% estimated chance of winning

----
Patriots: ~$2.96 (+196)
Bills: ~$1.51 (-196)

Note: Bills between 62% and 71% estimated chance of winning

----
Eagles: ~$4.34 (+334)
Buccaneers: ~$1.30 (-334)

Note: Buccaneers between 73% and 80% estimated chance of winning

----
49ers: ~$2.84 (+184)
Cowboys: ~$1.54 (-184)

Note: Cowboys between 59% and 73% estimated chance of winning

----
Steelers: ~$5.88 (+488)
Chiefs: ~$1.20 (-488)

Note: Chiefs between 76% and 85% estimated chance of winning

----
Cardinals: ~$2.82 (+182)
Rams: ~$1.55 (-182)

Note: Rams between 58% and 71% estimated chance of winning

----
Early Game Bets :

$1050 to win $1000 on the Bengals @ -6.5
$1100 to win $1000 on the Patriots @ +4.5
$825 to win $750 on the Eagles @ +9.0
$1320 to win $1200 on the Cowboys @ -3.0
$1100 to win $1000 on the Steelers @ +13.0
$825 to win $750 on the Cardinals @ +4.5


Other Bets:
$1000 to win $14000 on Bengals to win by 3
$600 to win $10800 on Bengals to win by 7

$500 to win $9000 on the Patriots to win by 3
$1000 to win $16000 on the Bills to win by 3

$750 to win $10500 on the Bucs to win by 3
$600 to win $10800 on the Bucs to win by 7

$600 to win $13200 on the 49ers to win by 3
$900 to win $16200 on the Cowboys to win by 3

$900 to win $12600 on the Chiefs to win by 3
$600 to win $9600 on the Chiefs to win by 7

$400 to win $8800 on the Cardinals to win by 3
$750 to win $13500 on the Rams to win by 3
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 10, 2022
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
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Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdj
January 10th, 2022 at 5:24:37 AM permalink
Congrats Ksdjdj. 18-1 is a nice win for you and the Raiders. I really think that 18-1 was a bad number on Raiders winning by 3. This week that Cardinals at 22-1 to win by 3 also looks like a bad number to me.
Order from chaos
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
  • Threads: 133
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January 10th, 2022 at 7:01:58 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: ksdjdj


2: $400 to win $7200 on the Raiders, to win by 3 points.
link to original post



I like that bet for Raiders to win by 3 at 18-1.
link to original post



(Whistles)
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
  • Threads: 133
  • Posts: 15308
Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdj
January 10th, 2022 at 7:02:34 AM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
----
Chargers(9-7): ~$1.76 (-132)
Raiders (9-7): $2.32 (+132)

1: $800 to win $8800 on the Chargers, to win by 2 or 3 points.
2: $400 to win $7200 on the Raiders, to win by 3 points.
link to original post


Had another bet on the Raiders, to win by 3 points.

My total bet is now: $500 to win $9000 on the Raiders, to win by 3 points.
link to original post



Nice! Congratualtions!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 89
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January 13th, 2022 at 12:20:42 AM permalink
Deleted (Double Posted)
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 13, 2022
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 89
  • Posts: 1255
January 13th, 2022 at 12:21:36 AM permalink


Team To Win Super Bowl Estimated Odds
Packers $4.54
Chiefs $5.61
Bills $10.3
Titans $9.49
Buccaneers $8.98
Rams $16.2
Cowboys $14.5
Bengals $23.6
49ers $31.4
Patriots $31.1
Cardinals $40.5
Raiders $97
Steelers $129
Eagles $128


Note: All odds above are posted in decimal odds.

Note 2: The "Estimated Odds" are my "attempts at posting an unbiased average using various sites"

Note 3: I will post at least one early and one late "game odds estimate" for each game.

----
Game Odds for "Questionable QBs" (IN or OUT at the start of the game):

Jimmy Garoppolo IN = 49ers (+184) / Cowboys (-184)

Jimmy Garoppolo OUT = 49ers (+201) / Cowboys (-201)

----
Ben Roethlisberger IN = Steelers (+488) / Chiefs (-488)

Ben Roethlisberger OUT = Steelers (+615) / Chiefs (-615)

----
Matthew Stafford IN = Cards (+182) / Rams (-182)

Matthew Stafford OUT = Cards (-116) / Rams (+116)

---
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 13, 2022
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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January 13th, 2022 at 7:21:01 AM permalink
Stafford is a great QB, but I think that analysis is giving him too much value over replacement.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
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Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
January 13th, 2022 at 9:38:06 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Stafford is a great QB, but I think that analysis is giving him too much value over replacement.
link to original post



Stafford is a choker.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
  • Threads: 133
  • Posts: 15308
January 13th, 2022 at 9:44:55 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: Mission146

Stafford is a great QB, but I think that analysis is giving him too much value over replacement.
link to original post



Stafford is a choker.
link to original post



If that's true, then that's part of him being overvalued.

I disagree with that specific assessment, though. He's fifth all-time in fourth quarter comebacks...when all you ever do is play from behind, you're presented with enough opportunities for people to think you're a choker or a comeback magician.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

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