It I Were Betting In The NFL This Week....
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December 10th, 2010 at 7:57:31 PM
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But I'm certainly not, as I've learned my lesson along with how to quit when I'm ahead.
But, one game stands out like a sore thumb if there ever was one. It's NE @ Chi. The O/U is 39, yes 39 points! And NE is only favored by 2.5!!
Last week the Jets had the 3rd best defense and you saw what NE did to that. Now Chicago has the leagues 3rd best D. Recently the Pats shredded the vaunted Steeler defense, and while Chicago barely got by Detroit by 24-20, a week earlier the Patriots destroyed the Lions in that same stadium by scoring, yep, 45 points!
A quick look at the Bears schedule shows a very weak lineup of games to this point, while the Patriots is a bit different.
Prediction: NE 34 Chi 26, and it won't look that close.
But, one game stands out like a sore thumb if there ever was one. It's NE @ Chi. The O/U is 39, yes 39 points! And NE is only favored by 2.5!!
Last week the Jets had the 3rd best defense and you saw what NE did to that. Now Chicago has the leagues 3rd best D. Recently the Pats shredded the vaunted Steeler defense, and while Chicago barely got by Detroit by 24-20, a week earlier the Patriots destroyed the Lions in that same stadium by scoring, yep, 45 points!
A quick look at the Bears schedule shows a very weak lineup of games to this point, while the Patriots is a bit different.
Prediction: NE 34 Chi 26, and it won't look that close.
December 10th, 2010 at 8:08:43 PM
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I'm taking the under and calling for a defensive game with NE over Chi by 3 to 7pts.
December 10th, 2010 at 8:57:26 PM
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Jerry - where are you getting those odds & line? I looked it up & it gave New England -3 with an over/under of 44 points. That was Danny Sheridan's odds via the USA today website. Maybe those are old & haven't been updated since they were issued?
"Bite my Glorious Golden Ass!" - Bender Bending Rodriguez
December 10th, 2010 at 9:06:03 PM
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http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/
Has a good set of info on the current Vegas lines.
The under has dropped significantly this week, but I can't see any reasons why.
Has a good set of info on the current Vegas lines.
The under has dropped significantly this week, but I can't see any reasons why.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
December 10th, 2010 at 9:53:56 PM
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Quote: Toes14Jerry - where are you getting those odds & line? I looked it up & it gave New England -3 with an over/under of 44 points. That was Danny Sheridan's odds via the USA today website. Maybe those are old & haven't been updated since they were issued?
Yes, vegasinsider, and now the O/U is 38! I don't see how they get such a number given the power of the NE offense, especially vs. defensive-minded teams. I think there's some kind of misled mystique that Chicago is the best defense in the league or something, but if they were in the AFC they'd be just another team.
December 10th, 2010 at 10:08:09 PM
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They don't get a number, they set a line and move depending on action (in most cases).
I -suspect- that this may have some effect based on Da Bears having one of the biggest followings in Vegas. I had a hunt to see if there's any news on either team, but can't see any. If the moneys going into the under, the books will drop the line and try and get some over cash in to balance the book out. Same with the Points line. -3 Pats is nice. I checked on the UK bookies, much the same.
BUT....
Aha, -6C-10C (20-ish F?) and good chance of snow fall (with snow forecast for before kick off)... that'll explain it, people think it'll be a bad weather game at Soldier field, meaning a ground game, hence low scoring. Pretty sharp wind as well, making kicking hard.
I'd still take the Points on NE in this game.
I -suspect- that this may have some effect based on Da Bears having one of the biggest followings in Vegas. I had a hunt to see if there's any news on either team, but can't see any. If the moneys going into the under, the books will drop the line and try and get some over cash in to balance the book out. Same with the Points line. -3 Pats is nice. I checked on the UK bookies, much the same.
BUT....
Aha, -6C-10C (20-ish F?) and good chance of snow fall (with snow forecast for before kick off)... that'll explain it, people think it'll be a bad weather game at Soldier field, meaning a ground game, hence low scoring. Pretty sharp wind as well, making kicking hard.
I'd still take the Points on NE in this game.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
December 11th, 2010 at 3:28:22 AM
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Quote: thecesspitThey don't get a number, they set a line and move depending on action (in most cases).
I -suspect- that this may have some effect based on Da Bears having one of the biggest followings in Vegas. I had a hunt to see if there's any news on either team, but can't see any. If the moneys going into the under, the books will drop the line and try and get some over cash in to balance the book out. Same with the Points line. -3 Pats is nice. I checked on the UK bookies, much the same.
BUT....
Aha, -6C-10C (20-ish F?) and good chance of snow fall (with snow forecast for before kick off)... that'll explain it, people think it'll be a bad weather game at Soldier field, meaning a ground game, hence low scoring. Pretty sharp wind as well, making kicking hard.
I'd still take the Points on NE in this game.
The last time the Pats played in a bad snowstorm they scored 50+ points vs. Tenn. last year. Brady loves the snow.
December 11th, 2010 at 9:07:03 AM
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I can't believe BAL is only -3 vs Houston. What's up with that one? Houston's defense has been ATROCIOUS this season, and Houston's offense hasn't played great against good teams. I can see an offense like Baltimore running up the score on them.
I also love TB -2 vs WSH. Redskins have looked so crappy lately, and TB has hung in games with the big boys.
Lots of tough games this week, but I can see some dogs covering. STL +9 vs NO, Miami +6 vs NYJ (who have not been playing well lately), KC +7 vs SD, and DAL +3.5 vs PHI are all possibilities. I especially hate those NFC East match-ups because even though PHI is a much better team, they know each other so well that anything can happen, especially since Wade Phillips is at hand. Not sure that all of these will cover, but they seem decent for the dogs.
I also love TB -2 vs WSH. Redskins have looked so crappy lately, and TB has hung in games with the big boys.
Lots of tough games this week, but I can see some dogs covering. STL +9 vs NO, Miami +6 vs NYJ (who have not been playing well lately), KC +7 vs SD, and DAL +3.5 vs PHI are all possibilities. I especially hate those NFC East match-ups because even though PHI is a much better team, they know each other so well that anything can happen, especially since Wade Phillips is at hand. Not sure that all of these will cover, but they seem decent for the dogs.
December 11th, 2010 at 9:14:14 AM
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Huh? Wade Phillips is no longer coaching in Dallas...
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
December 11th, 2010 at 9:40:21 AM
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meant to type *is no longer. It's definitely NOT a plus to have him as head coach. ;)
December 11th, 2010 at 11:02:09 AM
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I live in Chicago. Everyone is freaking out about the huge snowstorm. Maybe it happens, maybe it doesn't. Either way, I'd stay away from the over/under this week, and just take the Pats.
The Pats are my rock solid lock of the week. Why not?
The Pats are my rock solid lock of the week. Why not?
December 11th, 2010 at 2:02:04 PM
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I expect the Cowboys to win BIG vs. Philly. Vick is good but he's no MVP candidate like they've been saying. And Dallas is on a hot streak and clicking on all cylinders right now.
December 11th, 2010 at 2:30:54 PM
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Quote: JerryLoganThe last time the Pats played in a bad snowstorm they scored 50+ points vs. Tenn. last year. Brady loves the snow.
I'd also look at last weeks game... snow flurries, 45 points.
The line slips as people are betting on it being a low scoring game not because the bookies have anything wrong. Your right to take the over if you think that it's little or no effect. The makers want to balance their book so they win which ever way it goes.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
December 11th, 2010 at 2:52:49 PM
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True, but the last time the Pats played Chicago, they scored under 35 total. I think it was like 17-13 New England. The time before that it was a blowout 50+pt game, when Brady was younger. Cold weather makes it more of a running game and the Bears will love that. You're betting the hype of the Mike Martz offense and Brady's last game. I'm betting the defense, weather, and most recent history. I like the under but what do I know.
December 11th, 2010 at 2:57:10 PM
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Quote: AsswhoopermcdaddyTrue, but the last time the Pats played Chicago, they scored under 35 total. I think it was like 17-13 New England. The time before that it was a blowout 50+pt game, when Brady was younger. Cold weather makes it more of a running game and the Bears will love that. You're betting the hype of the Mike Martz offense and Brady's last game. I'm betting the defense, weather, and most recent history. I like the under but what do I know.
I'm looking at what the Bears did in Detroit vs. what the Pats did there on Thanksgiving. It seems all the hype about the Bears is how great they were to make a comeback against the Lions. Big deal. I also think Brady LOVES cold weather and it isn't going to be anything he hasn't seen and conquered. Any hype over Brady's last game isn't a hell of a lot different than the game before that and the game before that. I think he's just too much for the Bears defense just like he was vs. the Jets, and again vs. the Steelers, who I think would destroy the Bears anywhere they met.
December 12th, 2010 at 3:00:29 PM
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I think the only question left is... will the Pats make the over on their own or not...
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
December 12th, 2010 at 4:16:51 PM
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I believe the world saw today that "Da Bears" are pretenders at best, and if they do make the playoffs they'll be lucky to get past the first round. Humiliated on their home field should push them over the edge as far as no confidence goes. BOY DO THEY STINK!!
Oh....and is Jerry L. Da Bomb! or what!!
Oh....and is Jerry L. Da Bomb! or what!!
December 13th, 2010 at 9:48:57 AM
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I know I won more money this weekend on the NFL than Jerry Logan. :)
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
December 13th, 2010 at 10:05:42 AM
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You did. But for the entire NFL season? Isn't that how "the pros" get measured?
December 13th, 2010 at 10:32:28 AM
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For sure... though they tend to bet on more than 5 games... :)
I'm not a pro, and I don't play one on TV.
I've only started on-line again now I've found BoDog take Canadian funds (from my bank) much easier than they did a few months ago.
Keep the predictions coming Jerry, it's interesting to see your views on the NFL games.
I'm not a pro, and I don't play one on TV.
I've only started on-line again now I've found BoDog take Canadian funds (from my bank) much easier than they did a few months ago.
Keep the predictions coming Jerry, it's interesting to see your views on the NFL games.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
December 13th, 2010 at 12:58:39 PM
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Quote: JerryLoganI believe the world saw today that "Da Bears" are pretenders at best, and if they do make the playoffs they'll be lucky to get past the first round. Humiliated on their home field should push them over the edge as far as no confidence goes. BOY DO THEY STINK!!
Oh....and is Jerry L. Da Bomb! or what!!
Great call on the over Jerry. Hoped you bet the bank on it. That was a poor showing by the Bears.
December 13th, 2010 at 1:45:14 PM
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Thanks, but I didn't bet it. I was expecting NE to catch the Over by themselves, but that was before the snowstorm hit. They've done well the past few years in the snow but it had to keep them from scoring something.
