Sports Betting - Last Season's Stats
October 23rd, 2021 at 7:59:07 AM
permalink
New to sports betting. Question: how long should I use last season's stats when betting on this season's games? Thx for any opinions.
October 23rd, 2021 at 9:20:27 AM
permalink
Quote: rickbowNew to sports betting. Question: how long should I use last season's stats when betting on this season's games? Thx for any opinions.
link to original post
What stats do you mean/can you be more specific? Drew Brees' stats, for example, wouldn't be relevant at all.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
October 23rd, 2021 at 1:25:29 PM
permalink
Team stats are all I'm interested in. I'm really looking for a site that just has a total number for each team (like ESPN's FPI and other sites' Simple Rating System). Thx in advance.
October 23rd, 2021 at 2:07:09 PM
permalink
Quote: rickbowNew to sports betting. Question: how long should I use last season's stats when betting on this season's games? Thx for any opinions.
link to original post
In general, close to not at all. For simplicity, let’s just talk NFL. I’ll hone in on AFC East since I’m in Buffalo. Jets, Dolphins and Patriots all using new QB’s. Plus too many other roster changes to list. Why would how the Jets did last year be relevant to how they are doing this year?
October 23rd, 2021 at 2:22:35 PM
permalink
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: rickbowNew to sports betting. Question: how long should I use last season's stats when betting on this season's games? Thx for any opinions.
link to original post
In general, close to not at all. For simplicity, let’s just talk NFL. I’ll hone in on AFC East since I’m in Buffalo. Jets, Dolphins and Patriots all using new QB’s. Plus too many other roster changes to list. Why would how the Jets did last year be relevant to how they are doing this year?
link to original post
I mostly agree with this, but analysts and sports bettors almost all use the prior year's performance in assessing the first game or two of the new season. But even for those early season games we try to adjust our assessment of a team to reflect roster changes, injuries and even coaching changes. Also expected decline of some elderly players and the projected improvement of some young players (particularly quarterbacks).
After 2 or 3 games, the new information you are learning about the current version of the team makes last year's performance mostly obsolete.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
