rickbow
rickbow
Joined: Jun 2, 2016
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October 23rd, 2021 at 7:59:07 AM permalink
New to sports betting. Question: how long should I use last season's stats when betting on this season's games? Thx for any opinions.
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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October 23rd, 2021 at 9:20:27 AM permalink
Quote: rickbow

New to sports betting. Question: how long should I use last season's stats when betting on this season's games? Thx for any opinions.
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What stats do you mean/can you be more specific? Drew Brees' stats, for example, wouldn't be relevant at all.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
rickbow
rickbow
Joined: Jun 2, 2016
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October 23rd, 2021 at 1:25:29 PM permalink
Team stats are all I'm interested in. I'm really looking for a site that just has a total number for each team (like ESPN's FPI and other sites' Simple Rating System). Thx in advance.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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October 23rd, 2021 at 2:07:09 PM permalink
Quote: rickbow

New to sports betting. Question: how long should I use last season's stats when betting on this season's games? Thx for any opinions.
link to original post



In general, close to not at all. For simplicity, letís just talk NFL. Iíll hone in on AFC East since Iím in Buffalo. Jets, Dolphins and Patriots all using new QBís. Plus too many other roster changes to list. Why would how the Jets did last year be relevant to how they are doing this year?
gordonm888
Administrator
gordonm888
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October 23rd, 2021 at 2:22:35 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: rickbow

New to sports betting. Question: how long should I use last season's stats when betting on this season's games? Thx for any opinions.
link to original post



In general, close to not at all. For simplicity, letís just talk NFL. Iíll hone in on AFC East since Iím in Buffalo. Jets, Dolphins and Patriots all using new QBís. Plus too many other roster changes to list. Why would how the Jets did last year be relevant to how they are doing this year?
link to original post



I mostly agree with this, but analysts and sports bettors almost all use the prior year's performance in assessing the first game or two of the new season. But even for those early season games we try to adjust our assessment of a team to reflect roster changes, injuries and even coaching changes. Also expected decline of some elderly players and the projected improvement of some young players (particularly quarterbacks).

After 2 or 3 games, the new information you are learning about the current version of the team makes last year's performance mostly obsolete.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
Gundy
Gundy
Joined: Feb 25, 2021
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October 24th, 2021 at 9:48:31 AM permalink
I bet numbers, not teams. I do no handicapping.

I show a modest profit 4 out of every 5 seasons.

Stats are worthless.

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