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redietz
redietz
Joined: Jun 5, 2019
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September 5th, 2021 at 6:34:29 AM permalink
Obviously, there are ways to monitor spread variations that give you a heads up. And obviously, part of expertise is having access to books that either (1) are a step slow to line moves of other books or (2) prefer to move lines based on actual action at their book rather than everyone else moving their lines. And it's helpful if you have the depth of experience to look at lines, and although nobody gets them all right, if you can say "that line will move" and be correct 70% of the time, then combine that with monitoring the line moves at all locations 24/7 and you have a chance.

It is work -- 24/7 work. For example, back in the 90's, I stayed at the Convention Center Lodge across the street from the Stardust, and when it closed, at the massive Budget Suites behind the Stardust. One of the reasons for this was that the Stardust did not move numbers until they actually took action on a game that justified the action. So their lines were the last dominos to fall when there were major line moves. Back in the 80's and 90's, unlike today, there were actually some regulations that tried to prevent books from moving their lines willy nilly without actual money bet providing rationale for the number moves.

As to Axel's "small edges" and knowing winning sports bettors who transitioned to AP'ing. To use an apropos sports book phrase, "Yeah, that's the ticket."

I love when people say "winning sports bettor" as opposed to "college football bettor" or "college hoop bettor" or "NBA totals guy." As if there's some formula for winning across various sports.

I posted what I did because nobody on this ostensibly expert forum had posted it. For years. The fact that betting parlays is dumb in 95% of the contexts. The fact that analyzing parlay betting while overlooking that you're dealing with non-optimal lines is horrifically flawed. The fact that treating sports betting odds as if they are crystalline rather than fluid is silly, and that the fluidity of odds is a major, maybe the major, component in the betting process.

Why post what I did? Because I felt like, football season is starting, and those prime time results I mentioned, Ohio State/Minnesota and Boise/UCF, provided the perfect examples of how parlay betting undermines winning, and did for many people who bet those games. I hadn't seen a single mention of these facts on this forum, and I felt rather than clamming up forever, I'd leave some people here with a very useful lesson in gambling that they otherwise might not get. All of the parlay analyzing I've see here has ignored the variable that you are taking non-optimal odds the majority of the time.

It's as if you had people seriously discussing the minutia of counting cards at 6/5 blackjack tables. Analyzing card counting while ignoring the overall context is silly.

Now if you folks don't appreciate the fact that I just gave you very solid advice that heretofore has not appeared on WoV, well, God bless you all.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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September 5th, 2021 at 7:29:13 AM permalink
Quote: redietz



I love when people say "winning sports bettor" as opposed to "college football bettor" or "college hoop bettor" or "NBA totals guy." As if there's some formula for winning across various sports.

I used the term sports bettor on purpose because they are not focusing on one sport or any one method, but they use everything available to gain an advantage. So the "formula"(I didn't use that word, you did) is the same across all sports. Find an edge, and then bet it.

I think when the general public thinks of winning sports bettors they think of just Handicapping, or as I like to call it, Handicrapping. I don't know any successful sports bettors that make their living using pure Handicrapping.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
TomG
TomG
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September 5th, 2021 at 7:32:25 AM permalink
Quote: redietz

It is work -- 24/7 work.



I'll agree with the first part, but the second is just not correct. It is very much possible to earn profits by line shopping or "market checks", or whatever we want to call it in small amounts of time. Just a few hours on Saturday and someone should be able to find one sportsbook that has a total at 67 and another at 69. Or try it on Sunday and one place has first score a TD at -180 and another has the other side at +180. Perfect example from just this morning. I know MLB prop openers are inefficient. I know when they usually go on the board in Las Vegas. Takes me about 15 to 30 minutes to check. Most days I find something ok, some days are great, other days there is nothing. Just this morning, one place had +250 on an alternate runline when the rest of the world had the other side at -230. I could have put it into parlays and had a much better position, but I was still bleary eyed and didn't want to miss the number hunting around for something else. Although I am perfectly fine with only one bet on it, not putting it into parlays limited profits.

Quote: redietz

Because I felt like, football season is starting, and those prime time results I mentioned, Ohio State/Minnesota and Boise/UCF, provided the perfect examples of how parlay betting undermines winning, and did for many people who bet those games.



Again, this is more of a perfect example of a logical fallacy. If someone didn't put those games in a parlay and instead had single game bets on OSU -13.5 or Boise +5, how did they do? They were undermined by betting bad numbers. Which is exactly the same thing as your parlay example. It isn't the parlays that were the problem, it was the bad numbers.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster 
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September 5th, 2021 at 9:33:01 AM permalink
please delete - thanks





.
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
FastEddie
FastEddie
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September 5th, 2021 at 11:08:10 AM permalink
Just curious if any of the winning sports bettors had access to a nickel line -105 ? I knew one who would take phone calls from bookies trying to balance action on a game. If Henry liked that team he bet on it, if not, no thanks. Every winning player was either a bookie himself like Billy Waters ( charged but not convicted) or had access to info no one else had.
redietz
redietz
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September 12th, 2021 at 6:06:57 AM permalink
Quote: TomG

I'll agree with the first part, but the second is just not correct. It is very much possible to earn profits by line shopping or "market checks", or whatever we want to call it in small amounts of time. Just a few hours on Saturday and someone should be able to find one sportsbook that has a total at 67 and another at 69. Or try it on Sunday and one place has first score a TD at -180 and another has the other side at +180. Perfect example from just this morning. I know MLB prop openers are inefficient. I know when they usually go on the board in Las Vegas. Takes me about 15 to 30 minutes to check. Most days I find something ok, some days are great, other days there is nothing. Just this morning, one place had +250 on an alternate runline when the rest of the world had the other side at -230. I could have put it into parlays and had a much better position, but I was still bleary eyed and didn't want to miss the number hunting around for something else. Although I am perfectly fine with only one bet on it, not putting it into parlays limited profits.



Again, this is more of a perfect example of a logical fallacy. If someone didn't put those games in a parlay and instead had single game bets on OSU -13.5 or Boise +5, how did they do? They were undermined by betting bad numbers. Which is exactly the same thing as your parlay example. It isn't the parlays that were the problem, it was the bad numbers.

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    You're missing the point. If you commit to betting parlays, if that's what you do, you're committed to getting non-optimal numbers. That's the core problem. If you walk into a shop and yo bet parlays, you commit to the numbers at that shop for all games in the parlay. Now what you say is correct in that if you're committed to betting when you put two feet in a sports book regardless of number, that's a separate problem.

    If you think checking numbers for a couple hours on Saturday should yield profits, God bless you. This is part of the mythology that tries to frame sports betting as some easily beatable enterprise.

    I knew the guy who initiated arbitrage with offshores back before most people had internet. His name was Larry Fletcher, aka "Southern Comfort," and he used programs that alerted and alarmed when arbitrage opportunities became available any time day or night. He was doing this right around the time Windows first came out, so it had to be 1986 or thereabouts. He was precise, and he was on it literally every day. He's the only sports gambler I believe actually won every year he gambled. I know I certainly do not.
    "You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
    Mission146
    Mission146 
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    September 12th, 2021 at 6:09:25 AM permalink
    There's still 52 minutes for you to commit to playing the WoV Picks Game, or you can join in Week 2.
    https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
    unJon
    unJon
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    September 12th, 2021 at 8:02:09 AM permalink
    redietz,

    Thank you for your insightful post on parlays. I don’t know why you won’t similarly recognize the good points made by TomG. Walking into a sportsbook to bet parlays is bad because it’s low probability this particular sportsbook will have three good numbers. Makes sense. But walking into a sportsbook to bet anything, without shopping lines, seems equally bad.

    In my experience, Tom is dead on with respect to straight bets moving numbers well before a parlay would. And that can be useful.

    Also no one has mentioned “open parlays.” See a good line, bet it. Also bet it an an “open parlay.” Many sites will let the open legs stay open for a long enough time that you can add other good numbers when you find them. Sure, you COULD just bet a higher amount of money on straight bets on the good numbers. But that’s not always possible for various reasons (betting limits on site, etc.).
    The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
    TomG
    TomG
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    September 12th, 2021 at 6:06:19 PM permalink
    Quote: redietz

    You're missing the point. If you commit to betting parlays, if that's what you do, you're committed to getting non-optimal numbers. That's the core problem. If you walk into a shop and yo bet parlays, you commit to the numbers at that shop for all games in the parlay. Now what you say is correct in that if you're committed to betting when you put two feet in a sports book regardless of number, that's a separate problem.



    Of course everyone missed that point, because that point was kept hidden. It is also a very weird point. Being committed to making a raise in poker no matter what the cards are is also a problem. Being committed to making a parlay bet no matter what the numbers are is definitely a problem. That doesn't mean those bets are always stupid bets, it depends entirely on what the conditions are.

    Quote: redietz

    If you think checking numbers for a couple hours on Saturday should yield profits, God bless you. This is part of the mythology that tries to frame sports betting as some easily beatable enterprise.



    You really think betting +150 when the rest of the world has the other side at -140 isn't going to be profitable? And you think finding something like that really requires either around the clock work, or Devine blessings?

    Quote: redietz

    I knew the guy who initiated arbitrage with offshores back before most people had internet. His name was Larry Fletcher, aka "Southern Comfort," and he used programs that alerted and alarmed when arbitrage opportunities became available any time day or night. He was doing this right around the time Windows first came out, so it had to be 1986 or thereabouts. He was precise, and he was on it literally every day. He's the only sports gambler I believe actually won every year he gambled. I know I certainly do not.



    There are definitely other guys still doing similar things 35 years later.
    TDVegas
    TDVegas
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    September 13th, 2021 at 8:02:36 AM permalink
    Quote: Mission146

    There's still 52 minutes for you to commit to playing the WoV Picks Game, or you can join in Week 2.

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    Touché

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