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redietz
redietz
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September 3rd, 2021 at 6:23:07 AM permalink
Of course, I'm using the formal language adopted originally by U.S. doctors. In any event, last night's primetime college football debuts provided a perfect example of what I mention every couple of months -- namely that anyone betting sports parlays is, in 95% or more of all instances, being really stupid.

And once again, I will regale you with the story of the (first) trial of Mike Stockunas, a semi-legendary illegal bookmaker from Schuylkill County, Pennsylvania. When the prosecuting attorney put one of Mike's phone guys on the witness stand, the attorney tried to lay out the nuances of what Stockunas had been doing. The attorney asked Stockunas' assistant, "Could you tell the court what a parlay is?" The assistant answered, "Sure. It's a really stupid bet." That brought some chuckles from the audience and an admonition from the judge.

That was not a digression. It was an affirmation. As were last night's primetime games.

This will be the Cliff Notes version of what I'll blog about shortly.

Basically, college football lines and totals move. They move a lot. These days, it's not uncommon for a third of the games to move a point and a half or more. And it's not uncommon for a handful to move three or more points, sometimes more than that.

Which brings me to the problem with parlays. Parlays must be bet at one location. In brick and mortar joints, they usually must be bet at a single point in time. These elements of parlay betting take away some of the best tools you have for winning, namely shopping 'til you drop for the absolute best lines or best vigorish.

The Ohio State/Minnesota game had lines bouncing between 13 1/2 and 14 most of the week. I do not think I saw a 14 1/2 at any point, but there may indeed have been one, as I was not following the game that closely. The other prime time game, Boise/UCF had a couple of -5's early, then went to 5 1/2, then 6, and peaked at 6 1/2 before moving back down.

Ohio State/Minnesota ended on 14. Boise/UCF ended on 5. The point is (or points are, as a double entendre here), if you had opinions on these games and tried to parlay them, it was highly unlikely that you pulled off the timing and locale to win both. Whereas, if you shopped 'til you dropped over the course of days with straight plays, you got the best of it.

And that is why, as the dude said in court, parlays are "a really stupid bet."

I just thought the unusual opening primetime results last night made a convenient underlining for this spiel. It was probably the best season-opening argument I have ever seen for making the anti-parlay case.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
moses
moses
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September 3rd, 2021 at 7:02:59 AM permalink
The Ohio St/Minnesota game killed a friends parlay bet by a 1/2 point. He sees it as "they" boinked him. I see it as "dang, you picked 5 out of 6 correctly and the one you missed was by a 1/2 point."

Perception/Reality = money management.

Gotta watch out for the "they" brothers.
DRich
DRich
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September 3rd, 2021 at 7:18:26 AM permalink
Quote: moses

The Ohio St/Minnesota game killed a friends parlay bet by a 1/2 point. He sees it as "they" boinked him. I see it as "dang, you picked 5 out of 6 correctly and the one you missed was by a 1/2 point."

Perception/Reality = money management.

Gotta watch out for the "they" brothers.

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    I agree that parlays are dumb bets in most circumstances. I see your friend as someone that picked 5 games correct and only lost one game and came away with $0. If you like teams just bet them straight,
    Order from chaos
    moses
    moses
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    September 3rd, 2021 at 11:00:21 AM permalink
    Quote: DRich

    Quote: moses

    The Ohio St/Minnesota game killed a friends parlay bet by a 1/2 point. He sees it as "they" boinked him. I see it as "dang, you picked 5 out of 6 correctly and the one you missed was by a 1/2 point."

    Perception/Reality = money management.

    Gotta watch out for the "they" brothers.

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    I agree that parlays are dumb bets in most circumstances. I see your friend as someone that picked 5 games correct and only lost one game and came away with $0. If you like teams just bet them straight,
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    I paased another friend on the way out at halftime as I was heading in. He took Minnesota. From my perspective, he was in good shape to be ahead at the half. He's whizzed because a TD couldve put them up 21-10. He was leaving because he knew Ohio St would come roaring back in 2nd half. I bet he was glad to come away with a push.
    lilredrooster
    lilredrooster 
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    mosesgamerfreak
    September 3rd, 2021 at 1:11:36 PM permalink
    _________


    the OP is similar to the typical nonsense you hear on BJ forums with APs railing against ploppies
    if there were no ploppies there would be no APs
    would you think casinos are stupid enough to deal BJ with good rules to tables full of nothing but APs?

    these "morons" are not morons because they never had a goal to bet with maximum efficiency

    if a person doesn't have a goal to do something it's ridiculous to call him names because he hasn't done it

    considering gambling as a whole it probably includes around 95% or more of all of those who make bets - which are made simply for entertainment

    I gather from the OP's posts that he enjoys literature
    his OP is akin to a Professor of English calling him an "imbecile" because he hasn't read the complete works of James Joyce including the unfathomable "Finnegans Wake."

    quite a few of these "idiots" are high level professionals in their respective fields who likely earn 10 or times or more what the OP earns in a year

    I'm trying to say this without calling the OP a name to stay within the rules of the forum
    so I would say the post itself is haughty and arrogant
    if I didn't manage to stay within the rules and the ban hammer comes down so be it - I'll try to survive -


    .
    Last edited by: lilredrooster on Sep 3, 2021
    "𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
    Ace2
    Ace2
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    September 3rd, 2021 at 1:50:12 PM permalink
    For -110 bets, 2-team parlays at 13:5 are only slightly higher edge and 3-teamers at 6:1 are slightly lower edge, compared to betting separately.
    Itís all about making that GTA
    redietz
    redietz
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    September 3rd, 2021 at 8:51:40 PM permalink
    Quote: Ace2

    For -110 bets, 2-team parlays at 13:5 are only slightly higher edge and 3-teamers at 6:1 are slightly lower edge, compared to betting separately.

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    You're missing the point, Ace. it's not about the odds; it's about the numbers.

    I'm all for recreational bettors playing parlays and parlay cards. What I'm not a fan of is people thinking they're doing the proper thing from a money management perspective. Same as 6:5 blackjack. People want to play it, great. But don't pretend to expertise while holding court about playing parlays.

    I had mentioned previously, when folks posted pics of parlay tickets here and were discussing payouts as if they were examining the math for tiny edges, that their simply playing parlays was wrong, and if they took a minute to think about it, they'd probably figure out why it was basically, obviously wrong. Sometimes when you squint for small edges, you're missing the forest for the trees. When you're locked into numbers for a particular place and time, as most parlay bettors are, what you're really giving up is the price of buying half points to make your parlay bets that aren't optimal the same as what would be available if you shopped 'til you dropped different places throughout the week. So people doing the analyses of parlay bets weren't really doing the full analysis.

    For all the math dudes on this site, I've never read anyone pointing out the obvious problem with doing analyses of parlays and parlay cards without addressing the elephant -- namely that you're not dealing with optimally available numbers. So why sweat an analysis of small edges when you're obviously passing up big edges.

    I'm pretty sure Mission gets this. He has half-point sensitivity antennae.
    "You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
    AxelWolf
    AxelWolf
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    September 4th, 2021 at 3:08:48 AM permalink
    Quote: redietz

    Sometimes when you squint for small edges, you're missing the forest for the trees.





    Quote: redietz

    So why sweat an analysis of small edges when you're obviously passing up big edges.




    For the most part, isn't that what sports betting is, small edges? (obviously, opportunities and special things come up that have a super nice edge, but they are few and far between)

    One has to have a significant bankroll in order to get off large bets or a crap ton of small bets to really make a decent amount of money. In this day and age, it seems like if you really make good money, you have to have a ton of accounts all loaded up with the money all while hoping they don't peg you as a sharp bettor and cut your account off.

    Casino hopping isn't much better, especially if you are solo.

    It seems to me that if one really wants to make a nice living at sports it's a full-time job with very little room to do anything else.

    I have talked to a few full-time successfully sports bettors who slowly migrated to different types of AP. They basically said they wish they got out of sports sooner since they were squinting for small edges on sports, and missing the forest for the trees.
    ♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
    lilredrooster
    lilredrooster 
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    September 4th, 2021 at 5:07:45 AM permalink
    Quote: redietz


    I'm all for recreational bettors playing parlays




    say what?
    you implied just the opposite in your OP

    your use of the words "morons, imbeciles and idiots" is very obvious sensationalism in an attempt to attract attention to yourself
    TomG has been posting basically the exact same thing here for years

    if you can't attract attention to yourself using more sedate language than the question hangs in the air as to whether or not your posts are really valuable

    and also, so a bettor thinks he's real sharp because he found a book offering the Giants - 6.5 when all the others have the Giants at -7 4 hours before game time

    so he takes the bait

    neither you nor anyone else on this planet can be sure the Giants won't be offered at -6 15 minutes before the game by some book

    so in this example the very sharp don't look so very sharp

    and this kind of thing happens lots and lots of times


    .
    "𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
    TomG
    TomG
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    AxelWolf
    September 5th, 2021 at 6:32:59 AM permalink
    Reditz is falling for the false cause logical fallacy. It isnít the parlay that made those college football games bad bets, it was the bad numbers on Minnesota +13.5 or Boise St +5

    If Boise St +6.5 was a good number, then it was a good bet whether it was in a parlay or not. If Boise St +5 was not a good number, then it was no good whether it was in a parlay or not. Some for Ohio State -13.5 and -14. If Boise +6.5 and OSU -13.5 were not available to put into the same parlay, it would have been very easy to simply not put those games in the same parlay. The good numbers could have been single game bets. Or they could have in parlays with other good numbers from MLB, WNBA, Saturday college games, NFL week 1, MLS, EPL, golf, NASCAR, etc. Either way would have still been good bets and profitable.

    On the six team parlay example: six team parlays are going to have five winners about twice as often as they have all six teams win. All that matters is if they were six good numbers. If each game had a 53% chance of winning, that is slightly more than 2.2% chance of winning. Which means if it paid out 47.41 (like some places do), that is more than a 7% edge. (Someone correct me if that is wrong). Even if we agree it is not realistic, the problem isnít that it was a parlay bet, the problem is that they were not good bets whether in a parlay or not.

    So how about real world examples?

    I agree that most good sports betting is small edges, but there are some big edges to be found. Isnít that the same with most all other stuff people do to earn money from casino games? How often the bigger edges come up and why is a totally different topic. How to best take advantage of it is right on point when talking about parlays. With sports betting, there can come a time when one of the biggest barriers is being able to get money down. And thatís when parlays become very important to maximize value.

    The high hold that sportsbooks have on parlays is exactly why they are good. The bets go right through and it usually takes quite a few for them to notice where the money is going. It is much better to have $1,000 in action on a good number, than it is to bet $500 and see it move. That is even true if I have to give up a little value by having it in parlays. Might not matter in the case of the major sports side, total, moneyline. If someone doesnít understand why this might matter for some bets, Iím perfectly fine with that.

    The reduced juice is also cool. I like getting -109 on three team parlays over -110, but donít really bother too much with it. For years Jerryís Nugget offered -105 on their three-team parlays. And they were independent with plenty of lines where Pinnacleís takeback was +105 or higher. Then there was Luckyís letting people bet MLB runline and total parlays. Those two examples died off five to 10 years ago, but they should show clearly why there are times when parlays can be great. There is other stuff out there right now that comes and goes. Some with small edges that I have no problem talking about (MMA favorite and over; MLB home and under), and others with bigger edges that I wonít.

    Can verify that there was a Minnesota +14.5 -112 out there at one time.

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