2021 WoV Picks Game Discussion Thread

I wonder whether the following wagering tactic gives you a better than 50/50 chance of going 1-1 on two bets (because of intercorrelation between the bets.)

Choose a game with a large point spread, say >10 points. Bet the Favorite, giving the points against the spread, and also bet the Under on Total Points.

I think it is less likely (probability less than 25%) to win both bets, and also less likely (probability less than 25%) to lose both bets, because there is some correlation between the outcome of "the favorite winning by >10.5 points" and the outcome of "exceeding a Total Points value of say, 45 points."

So, the probability of going 1-1 on those two bets should be better than a random 50/50.

Quote: unJon

There’s a loophole if someone needs an 0-5 but let’s talk about that after this week so we can fix for next year.
link to original post

I think I also have spotted a loophole in the game rules for someone to go 0-5 or maybe even 0-6.

Quote: gordonm888

I wonder whether the following wagering tactic gives you a better than 50/50 chance of going 1-1 on two bets (because of intercorrelation between the bets.)

Choose a game with a large point spread, say >10 points. Bet the Favorite, giving the points against the spread, and also bet the Under on Total Points.

I think it is less likely (probability less than 25%) to win both bets, and also less likely (probability less than 25%) to lose both bets, because there is some correlation between the outcome of "the favorite winning by >10.5 points" and the outcome of "exceeding a Total Points value of say, 45 points."

So, the probability of going 1-1 on those two bets should be better than a random 50/50.
link to original post

That logic makes a lot of sense to me. Early in the season I looked for over/favorite and under/dog combinations to increase variance. Late in the season (given my position) I avoided these picks.

Greetings!

The Week 18 Lines are as follows:

Cowboys (-5) @ Eagles (+5) O/U 43.5
Chiefs (-11.5) @ Broncos (+11.5) O/U 45
Packers (-4) @ Lions (+4) O/U 44.5
Bears (+5.5) @ Vikings (-5.5) O/U 44
Patriots (-6.5) @ Dolphins (+6.5) O/U 40
Colts (-15.5) @ Jaguars (+15.5) O/U 44
Jets (+16) @ Bills (-16) O/U 41
Panthers (+8) @ Buccaneers (-8) O/U 41.5
Titans (-10) @ Texans (+10) O/U 43
Football Team (-7) @ Giants (+7) O/U 38
Saints (-3.5) @ Falcons (+3.5) O/U 40
Steelers (+5) @ Ravens (-5) O/U 41.5
Bengals (+6) @ Browns (-6) O/U 38
Seahawks (+6.5) @ Cardinals (-6.5) O/U 48
49ers (+4.5) @ Rams (-4.5) O/U 44.5
Chargers (-3) @ Raiders (+3) O/U 49.5

Perfection Bonus Log (Fully Updated):

Week 1: UnJon ($10)

Week 3: JohnZimbo ($20)

Week 6: PlayYourCardsRight ($15) & SOOPOO ($15)

Week 7: JohnZimbo ($5) & EdCollins ($5)

Week 9: Unjon ($30)

Week 10 RidetheEdge: ($20)

Week 11 RidetheEdge: ($20)--->This is not a mistake!

Week 12 JW17: ($20)

Week 14 AZDuffman: ($40)

Week 16 JohnnyQ ($20) and Gordonm888 ($20)

Week 17 Scolist: ($20)

Week 18 Perfection Bonus Available: $20

The only note that I have today is that I'm going to send Reminder PM's in about one hour because they are also going to ask whether or not people intend to play the Playoff game. I'm only planning on doing the Playoff Picks Game if there are at least twenty participants.

Quote: Mission146

The only note that I have today is that I'm going to send Reminder PM's in about one hour because they are also going to ask whether or not people intend to play the Playoff game. I'm only planning on doing the Playoff Picks Game if there are at least twenty participants.
link to original post

The above has been done.

Anyone who did not play this game is still welcome to play the Playoff Picks Game, which is a total free roll:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/36791-2021-nfl-playoff-picks-game/#post835669

Simply read the rules in that thread and announce (in that thread) that you intend to play, or alternatively, you can PM me that you intend to play.

I am very glad that I have the luxury of taking a Skip Week, because this seems to me to be an exceptionally tough week to be making picks.

- Talented teams who have made the playoffs, have nothing to gain and are resting players. They might not play hard . Sort of an exhibition game for them (ex: Packers)

- Teams whose incentives to play hard could possibly be changed by the results of other games, either earlier or ongoing.

- Underperforming teams who cannot make the playoffs and have starters who might not play for various reasons. (ex: Browns)

- Players coming off Covid lists or returning from injuries (ex: Derrick Henry.)

It's hard to be surgical with your picks in a week like this one. Again, good luck to everyone.

I am very glad that I have the luxury of taking a Skip Week, because this seems to me to be an exceptionally tough week to be making picks.

- Talented teams who have made the playoffs, have nothing to gain and are resting players. They might not play hard . Sort of an exhibition game for them (ex: Packers)

- Teams whose incentives to play hard could possibly be changed by the results of other games, either earlier or ongoing.

- Underperforming teams who cannot make the playoffs and have starters who might not play for various reasons. (ex: Browns)

- Players coming off Covid lists or returning from injuries (ex: Derrick Henry.)

It's hard to be surgical with your picks in a week like this one. Again, good luck to everyone.

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/jaguars-sponsor-sues-to-have-name-removed-from-game-due-to-impending-clown-invasion-231113471.html

The Jacksonville Jaguars' final game of the season is on track to be, well, a clown show. One sponsor would rather not be involved.

RoofClaim.com, a roofing company located in Georgia with business in Florida, has sued to avoid being emphasized as the primary sponsor of Sunday's finale against the Indianapolis Colts, according to Mark Long of the Associated Press

Quote: gordonm888

Quote: unJon

There’s a loophole if someone needs an 0-5 but let’s talk about that after this week so we can fix for next year.
link to original post

I think I also have spotted a loophole in the game rules for someone to go 0-5 or maybe even 0-6.
link to original post

You cannot pick one and only one game -- see rule 3

That said, I do see a potential loophole to have an 0-5 or 0-6 week.