gordonm888
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gordonm888
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unJonMission146
January 6th, 2022 at 10:13:20 AM permalink
I wonder whether the following wagering tactic gives you a better than 50/50 chance of going 1-1 on two bets (because of intercorrelation between the bets.)

Choose a game with a large point spread, say >10 points. Bet the Favorite, giving the points against the spread, and also bet the Under on Total Points.

I think it is less likely (probability less than 25%) to win both bets, and also less likely (probability less than 25%) to lose both bets, because there is some correlation between the outcome of "the favorite winning by >10.5 points" and the outcome of "exceeding a Total Points value of say, 45 points."

So, the probability of going 1-1 on those two bets should be better than a random 50/50.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
gordonm888
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gordonm888
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Mission146
January 6th, 2022 at 10:25:28 AM permalink
Quote: unJon


Thereís a loophole if someone needs an 0-5 but letís talk about that after this week so we can fix for next year.
link to original post



I think I also have spotted a loophole in the game rules for someone to go 0-5 or maybe even 0-6.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
RideTheEdge
RideTheEdge
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Mission146
January 6th, 2022 at 10:50:48 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

I wonder whether the following wagering tactic gives you a better than 50/50 chance of going 1-1 on two bets (because of intercorrelation between the bets.)

Choose a game with a large point spread, say >10 points. Bet the Favorite, giving the points against the spread, and also bet the Under on Total Points.

I think it is less likely (probability less than 25%) to win both bets, and also less likely (probability less than 25%) to lose both bets, because there is some correlation between the outcome of "the favorite winning by >10.5 points" and the outcome of "exceeding a Total Points value of say, 45 points."

So, the probability of going 1-1 on those two bets should be better than a random 50/50.
link to original post



That logic makes a lot of sense to me. Early in the season I looked for over/favorite and under/dog combinations to increase variance. Late in the season (given my position) I avoided these picks.
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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January 7th, 2022 at 6:13:27 AM permalink
Greetings!

The Week 18 Lines are as follows:

Cowboys (-5) @ Eagles (+5) O/U 43.5
Chiefs (-11.5) @ Broncos (+11.5) O/U 45
Packers (-4) @ Lions (+4) O/U 44.5
Bears (+5.5) @ Vikings (-5.5) O/U 44
Patriots (-6.5) @ Dolphins (+6.5) O/U 40
Colts (-15.5) @ Jaguars (+15.5) O/U 44
Jets (+16) @ Bills (-16) O/U 41
Panthers (+8) @ Buccaneers (-8) O/U 41.5
Titans (-10) @ Texans (+10) O/U 43
Football Team (-7) @ Giants (+7) O/U 38
Saints (-3.5) @ Falcons (+3.5) O/U 40
Steelers (+5) @ Ravens (-5) O/U 41.5
Bengals (+6) @ Browns (-6) O/U 38
Seahawks (+6.5) @ Cardinals (-6.5) O/U 48
49ers (+4.5) @ Rams (-4.5) O/U 44.5
Chargers (-3) @ Raiders (+3) O/U 49.5

Perfection Bonus Log (Fully Updated):

Week 1: UnJon ($10)

Week 3: JohnZimbo ($20)

Week 6: PlayYourCardsRight ($15) & SOOPOO ($15)

Week 7: JohnZimbo ($5) & EdCollins ($5)

Week 9: Unjon ($30)

Week 10 RidetheEdge: ($20)

Week 11 RidetheEdge: ($20)--->This is not a mistake!

Week 12 JW17: ($20)

Week 14 AZDuffman: ($40)

Week 16 JohnnyQ ($20) and Gordonm888 ($20)

Week 17 Scolist: ($20)

Week 18 Perfection Bonus Available: $20
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
Mission146
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January 7th, 2022 at 6:15:49 AM permalink
The only note that I have today is that I'm going to send Reminder PM's in about one hour because they are also going to ask whether or not people intend to play the Playoff game. I'm only planning on doing the Playoff Picks Game if there are at least twenty participants.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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January 7th, 2022 at 7:19:34 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

The only note that I have today is that I'm going to send Reminder PM's in about one hour because they are also going to ask whether or not people intend to play the Playoff game. I'm only planning on doing the Playoff Picks Game if there are at least twenty participants.
link to original post



The above has been done.

Anyone who did not play this game is still welcome to play the Playoff Picks Game, which is a total free roll:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/36791-2021-nfl-playoff-picks-game/#post835669

Simply read the rules in that thread and announce (in that thread) that you intend to play, or alternatively, you can PM me that you intend to play.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
gordonm888
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gordonm888
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Mission146
January 7th, 2022 at 7:42:48 AM permalink
I am very glad that I have the luxury of taking a Skip Week, because this seems to me to be an exceptionally tough week to be making picks.

- Talented teams who have made the playoffs, have nothing to gain and are resting players. They might not play hard . Sort of an exhibition game for them (ex: Packers)

- Teams whose incentives to play hard could possibly be changed by the results of other games, either earlier or ongoing.

- Underperforming teams who cannot make the playoffs and have starters who might not play for various reasons. (ex: Browns)

- Players coming off Covid lists or returning from injuries (ex: Derrick Henry.)

It's hard to be surgical with your picks in a week like this one. Again, good luck to everyone.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
gordonm888
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gordonm888
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
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January 7th, 2022 at 7:42:48 AM permalink
I am very glad that I have the luxury of taking a Skip Week, because this seems to me to be an exceptionally tough week to be making picks.

- Talented teams who have made the playoffs, have nothing to gain and are resting players. They might not play hard . Sort of an exhibition game for them (ex: Packers)

- Teams whose incentives to play hard could possibly be changed by the results of other games, either earlier or ongoing.

- Underperforming teams who cannot make the playoffs and have starters who might not play for various reasons. (ex: Browns)

- Players coming off Covid lists or returning from injuries (ex: Derrick Henry.)

It's hard to be surgical with your picks in a week like this one. Again, good luck to everyone.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
JohnnyQ
JohnnyQ
Joined: Nov 3, 2009
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January 8th, 2022 at 4:27:13 AM permalink
https://www.yahoo.com/sports/jaguars-sponsor-sues-to-have-name-removed-from-game-due-to-impending-clown-invasion-231113471.html

The Jacksonville Jaguars' final game of the season is on track to be, well, a clown show. One sponsor would rather not be involved.

RoofClaim.com, a roofing company located in Georgia with business in Florida, has sued to avoid being emphasized as the primary sponsor of Sunday's finale against the Indianapolis Colts, according to Mark Long of the Associated Press
Like the castle in its corner In a medieval game; I foresee terrible trouble And I stay here just the same
IndyJeffrey
IndyJeffrey
Joined: Feb 10, 2013
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January 8th, 2022 at 4:59:32 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

Quote: unJon


Thereís a loophole if someone needs an 0-5 but letís talk about that after this week so we can fix for next year.
link to original post



I think I also have spotted a loophole in the game rules for someone to go 0-5 or maybe even 0-6.
link to original post



You cannot pick one and only one game -- see rule 3

That said, I do see a potential loophole to have an 0-5 or 0-6 week.

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