arbitrage bets

This is something I do very rarely for a few reasons:
-only have access to Nevada market numbers makes them hard to find
-when I do find them it usually means one side is -EV
-and usually only props with low limits, so best to just take a position and either win or lose

But this weekend found a mispriced number on Saturday night baseball and was able to get three max bets (at decent limits) in before it moved to market price. That was way over what I would normally want to risk, so spend the day looking to find the best bets on the other side. By time the game started I would be able to win low three figures if the Dodgers cover, low four figures if the Nationals cover, and high four figures if Dodgers win by exactly two. Unfortunately, even after getting a lot of action on some of the best numbers I'll see all year, only won $160.

Then Monday found another great number on an alternate line on the Nets. Max bet (at low limit). They move the line. Max bet again. Off the board. I was certainly willing to just let it play out, but I was looking around at numbers other places had up and saw something I thought might be +EV, so I bet on the other side. Overall position was risking $500 to win $400 on something that was better than 75%. I guess that means a little over $200 in value; though my mind was thinking $500. Not great, but a lot better than most days. Then the game was cancelled.

Overall, find one of the best numbers I'll ever see in terms of odds and volume; then follow that up with something almost as good. And both times I take both sides so in total on both games there is a very small chance of losing something small. And after it all plays out, I barely win anything and still spend the following day driving through the horrible I-15 traffic to reload on the one account that lost.

Much easier to do online, but very time consuming if you want to do it regularly. Something I've done in the past and might get back into during retirement.


ZCore13

Quote: Zcore13

Much easier to do online, but very time consuming if you want to do it regularly. Something I've done in the past and might get back into during retirement.


ZCore13

Good thread Tom.
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ZC Are we talking about true arb's or line infancies?

How many different online books were you using? Some of those places may no longer be available to US customers.


Whatever the case, it's just easier to always win at Baccarat and Roulette.

Quote: AxelWolf

Good thread Tom.
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ZC Are we talking about true arb's or line infancies?

How many different online books were you using? Some of those places may no longer be available to US customers.


Whatever the case, it's just easier to always win at Baccarat and Roulette.

True Arbitrage. I had about 10 online accounts. Many are not available any more.. A few that I remember were Sportsbook, Intertops and BetOnline.

At first I scoured the lines for two plus lines. Later I found a website that was automated and found them for me.. Most of the time a +104 -+108 on each side, but once in a while up to a +125. I just did it for fun since I owned my own business and had time. I also only did $100 wagers. You have to be right on it and act fast or you can get caught and miss it, but already have half the bet in. Especially when websites started finding them and notifying their users.

Luckily for me, Sports betting will be legal iand live n Az by August or September. Ill get to have even more fun.


ZCore13

Quote: Zcore13

True Arbitrage. I had about 10 online accounts. Many are not available any more.. A few that I remember were Sportsbook, Intertops and BetOnline.

At first I scoured the lines for two plus lines. Later I found a website that was automated and found them for me.. Most of the time a +104 -+108 on each side, but once in a while up to a +125. I just did it for fun since I owned my own business and had time. I also only did $100 wagers. You have to be right on it and act fast or you can get caught and miss it, but already have half the bet in. Especially when websites started finding them and notifying their users.

Luckily for me, Sports betting will be legal iand live n Az by August or September. Ill get to have even more fun.


ZCore13

Good stuff.

"Later I found a website that was automated and found them for me"

That's the next thing I was going to mention but then I thought better of it since this is certainly something where others doing the same thing will cut down on your profitability.

I'm wondering if there will be as many opportunities in the legally regulated books once they are running smoothly? Of course, there may be some good bonuses to take advantage of as well. Perhaps, if you can add in a few offshore places like Bovada and make up for that.

Speaking of bonuses... if you add that into the Arbs, now you are really talking about a nice situation percentage-wise.

For me, whenever you can make "free" money doing AP stuff from home, and you enjoy it, it just seems like that old saying rings true "money won is sweeter than money earned" type of thing.

...........................

my admittedly unscientific observation is re strong faves in the NFL - when the lines open on Tuesday or Monday night you will get a better line fairly often then the line you would get close to game time after the plungers have bet the faves so much that they have to give up more points

so you can fairly often get a decent middle out of it

of course, if this doesn't happen you're stuck with the bet and will probably end up losing the vig in the long run

so, the way to go is to combine this with capping and only bet the strong faves that you think would be good bets even if the line doesn't get crushed




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Quote: lilredrooster

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my admittedly unscientific observation is re strong faves in the NFL - when the lines open on Tuesday or Monday night you will get a better line fairly often then the line you would get close to game time after the plungers have bet the faves so much that they have to give up more points

so you can fairly often get a decent middle out of it

of course, if this doesn't happen you're stuck with the bet and will probably end up losing the vig in the long run

so, the way to go is to combine this with capping and only bet the strong faves that you think would be good bets even if the line doesn't get crushed




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What type of advantage(%) do you think you have doing this? Personally, I like a little extra zing to whatever I'm doing AP-related.

Quote: AxelWolf

What type of advantage(%) do you think you have doing this? Personally, I like a little extra zing to whatever I'm doing AP-related.

I really don't think it's something that can easily be calculated
I've never heard a quote on the edge a middle can provide
and also, of course, it depends on how good a capper you are when picking the fave in case the fave doesn't get crushed by the plungers


Tom is doing great stuff with his thing - and of course living in LV makes it that much easier


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You get all excited when you see a line that you can bet both sides on but then reality hits you. You want to bet everything on it but actually getting the money down is difficult. You have to bet one side first while not knowing once that bet is placed if the other place will take the same amount on the other side. So sometimes you are left with not being able to fully hedge it and have to either hold risk you weren’t prepared for or hedge at a worse line.

Also since you are usually placing large bets I think the books take notice. A few $1000 wins on BetMGM or Caesars and you get limited to $50 real quick. They think you crushed them but they don’t know you lost on the other side and really only made $50. Not worth ruining your account over it. Actually I’ve been limited at places I’m a lifetime loser at. They just don’t like any action.

Quote: Sandybestdog

A few $1000 wins on BetMGM or Caesars and you get limited to $50 real quick.

I have no experience, but this seems ridiculous!? You are saying if I sign up, start betting $1k on NBA action, win my first 4 bets someone actually even notices and now limits me to $50 bets?

Am I understanding your point correctly?

Quote: lilredrooster

I really don't think it's something that can easily be calculated [referring to a middle]

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I thought about this some more and I don't know how to figure out the edge on a middle
but some thoughts on middling which seem to indicate the edge is fairly substantial


if you had a 1.5 point middle on an NFL game and you bet $110 on each side
each time you did not hit the middle you would lose $10

if you lost 15 times and hit just once
you would have had total action of $3520

but it's different than a usual calculation of total action
because you only actually risked $160

so risking only $160 for your one hit in which you profited $200 so your net profit was $50

that seems a lot for risking only $160

and it seems like you should be able to hit your middle at least one in 16 tries - if I had to guess I'd say one in 12 tries

but all of this is speculation

it's nowhere close to being any kind of accurate estimate of the actual edge




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Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: lilredrooster

I really don't think it's something that can easily be calculated [referring to a middle]

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I thought about this some more and I don't know how to figure out the edge on a middle
but some thoughts on middling which seem to indicate the edge is fairly substantial


if you had a 1.5 point middle on an NFL game and you bet $110 on each side
each time you did not hit the middle you would lose $10

if you lost 15 times and hit just once
you would have had total action of $3520

but it's different than a usual calculation of total action
because you only actually risked $160

so risking only $160 for your one hit in which you profited $200 so your net profit was $40

that seems a lot for risking only $160

and it seems like you should be able to hit your middle at least one in 16 tries - if I had to guess I'd say one in 12 tries

but all of this is speculation

it's nowhere close to being any kind of accurate estimate of the actual edge




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I bet Mike(no pun intended) has some information on this. I think it will depend on key numbers as well.

Quote: AxelWolf

I bet Mike(no pun intended) has some information on this. I think it will depend on key numbers as well.

just wanted to correct my calculation - actually the net profit would be $50 - not $40



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Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: lilredrooster

I really don't think it's something that can easily be calculated [referring to a middle]

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I thought about this some more and I don't know how to figure out the edge on a middle
but some thoughts on middling which seem to indicate the edge is fairly substantial


if you had a 1.5 point middle on an NFL game and you bet $110 on each side
each time you did not hit the middle you would lose $10

if you lost 15 times and hit just once
you would have had total action of $3520

but it's different than a usual calculation of total action
because you only actually risked $160

so risking only $160 for your one hit in which you profited $200 so your net profit was $40

that seems a lot for risking only $160

and it seems like you should be able to hit your middle at least one in 16 tries - if I had to guess I'd say one in 12 tries

but all of this is speculation

it's nowhere close to being any kind of accurate estimate of the actual edge




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I bet Mike(no pun intended) has some information on this. I think it will depend on key numbers as well.

Of course. If you can middle 3 ( getting 3.5, giving 2.5) or 7 ( getting 7.5, giving 6.5), you likely have a + EV situation. If you are able to middle 5, it is still -EV.

Quote: SOOPOO

I have no experience, but this seems ridiculous!? You are saying if I sign up, start betting $1k on NBA action, win my first 4 bets someone actually even notices and now limits me to $50 bets?

Am I understanding your point correctly?

You don’t even have to win them. I think they have some software that notices you’re betting sharp lines. Cause you’ll place a big bet (maybe $1000 or so) and a minute or 2 later they’ll change the line to the correct market price.

I opened an account at Caesars PA. A few months ago I saw a college football line at about midnight. It was around +425. Market price was about +310. I thought well they aren’t going to take much on this. So I bought $200. System took it, no delay. So I deposited $300, took it again. Then $400. I think I got about $2000 down before I thought that was enough. The line actually stayed like that overnight I think. Well I know ev says I should have just held it but I’m just not into that so I hedged it at -340. I just assumed the favorite would win and all those +ev long shot bets would lose. Well of course the dog won. So it was an $8000 win or something. Of course I lost on the other side and only made a few hundred. After that they limited me $100 max bet. BetMGM I’m a lifetime loser and limited to $50. Draftkings is the only place I rely on to always take action. They take everything. I’m sure others have been limited but I have no complaints with them.

Quote: SOOPOO

Of course. If you can middle 3 ( getting 3.5, giving 2.5) or 7 ( getting 7.5, giving 6.5), you likely have a + EV situation. If you are able to middle 5, it is still -EV.

that's a very good point that I hadn't considered - and makes the whole thing about looking for middles a lot less attractive because getting it around a 3 or a 7 is not going to happen that often

however, it might still be a good idea in basketball, where 3s and 7s don't matter - particularly in college ball - the lines can move quite a bit


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Quote: lilredrooster

that's a very good point that I hadn't considered - and makes the whole thing about looking for middles a lot less attractive because getting it around a 3 or a 7 is not going to happen that often

however, it might still be a good idea in basketball, where 3s and 7s don't matter - particularly in college ball - the lines can move quite a bit


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As far as I can tell from his posts, redietz sports betting focuses on getting middles. He would be a good resource in this thread. Not sure he likes posting here anymore though.

Good things going on here. As I said at first, generally not something I do, because it means making a bad bet. It is usually best to just bet the side with the most value.
A couple more examples from this week:

1h baseball total, over 4.5 +116 one place, and under -110 most everywhere in Las Vegas (and probably the world). Betting the over had an edge of about 5%. Betting both had an edge at about 1%. Even with double the action, it is still less than half the value to bet both sides, instead of just one. There was absolutely no reason to arbitrage that.

Now this example is gold, and I'm not sure if the forum deserves it anymore, based on the directions it has been going, but here it is:

There is a baseball future I am looking at right now. Yes or no to make the playoffs. I am seeing a +1300 and -1200. At those numbers, someone could bet $1000 on the yes and $12920 on the no and win about $80 no matter what. But that $80 is only 0.57% edge on the $13920 bet. Tied up for the next five to six months. Lots of better things someone could do with their money for six months than earn half a percent. If it was a rugby game with those numbers, and I would not be able to figure out which was the better side, earning 0.57% in one day would be awesome. But finding arbitrage at numbers like +1300 and -1200 take a lot of work just to find two or three per day, and it would probably be $100 limits on accounts, which means only earning $8.

But if I look around, it is common to find a +1200 one place and -1300 at another place on a college football money line. Now look at the example I first used again:
+1300 and -1200 is a 0.57% player edge.
That means -1300 and +1200 is only a 0.57% house edge.
Most random things in a sportsbook are a 4.54% house edge (or more).
Just by line shopping, someone can routinely remove 80 to 90% of the house edge.
Again, finding -280 and +300 is very rare and is only a 0.8% player edge. Finding +280 and -300 is a lot more common. I can usually find something like that every time I pick up my phone, and cuts the house edge from 4.5% to only 0.8%.

Middles are very similar, If there is an under 57.5 and over 56.5 in an NBA 1q, the chance of it landing exactly on the number doesn't make it +EV to bet both sides. But it does cut the house edge significantly, and it is much more likely one of those sides is a good bet. The extra step of finding the value of each half-point isn't too big a deal. I just use pinnacle's drop down menu and trust that. Can't imagine anything better. Even putting in a huge amount of work to find the actual rates for each league could be obsolete in a few years.

Reading sports betting BS on the internet, it so often seems most guys want to take a position, ("good defense, injuries on offense, and cold weather, bet the under") then they try to find the best number on their opinion. It should be the exact opposite. I will almost always find the best numbers, then decide which position to take. If the numbers don't cut the house edge to around 1% or less, I usually don't bother with it, or will only bet very small. Best thing would be to have access to a few markets. Bovada and 5dimes (when it was around), were the easiest to find off-market numbers. But also the quickest to cut people off. Having those, plus pinnacle and cris, and Draft Kings and William Hill, and Circa and Westgate, would be the absolute best thing to do. Some people can figure out ways to have them all at their finger tips.

Eventually, the hardest part becomes getting enough money down. For spread, total, money line, should be much less of a problem. But those are generally efficient and every place usually has the same or very similar numbers. Alternate lines, 1q, team totals, team to score first, player props, etc., are much easier to find good numbers. Of the seven Nevada sportsbooks I have on my phone, only one has fairly high limits for those type of bets. Five will usually have limits of around $100 to $300. Four of those five, I can bet again a few minutes later after giving them a chance to move the number. Either my account is flagged or they check to see that they have a soft number, and it is rare to be able to bet more than once or twice. Only one is so tacky that I can only make one limit bet. It cost cost over $1 billion to build the Bellagio, and they have a market cap of $20 billion, and they have Jamie Foxx on TV every five minutes, how is MGM going to limit me to $250 on an NBA game? One is both weird and tacky. Sometimes I can bet $500 and bet it a few times. Most of the time it is rejected and the line moves. WTF Boyd, I'm not a line service.

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: lilredrooster

I really don't think it's something that can easily be calculated [referring to a middle]

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I thought about this some more and I don't know how to figure out the edge on a middle
but some thoughts on middling which seem to indicate the edge is fairly substantial


if you had a 1.5 point middle on an NFL game and you bet $110 on each side
each time you did not hit the middle you would lose $10

if you lost 15 times and hit just once
you would have had total action of $3520

but it's different than a usual calculation of total action
because you only actually risked $160

so risking only $160 for your one hit in which you profited $200 so your net profit was $40

that seems a lot for risking only $160

and it seems like you should be able to hit your middle at least one in 16 tries - if I had to guess I'd say one in 12 tries

but all of this is speculation

it's nowhere close to being any kind of accurate estimate of the actual edge




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I bet Mike(no pun intended) has some information on this. I think it will depend on key numbers as well.

If it was a 1.5 middle around the number 3 I would bet it all day long.

Quote: TomG

Good things going on here. As I said at first, generally not something I do, because it means making a bad bet. It is usually best to just bet the side with the most value.
A couple more examples from this week:

1h baseball total, over 4.5 +116 one place, and under -110 most everywhere in Las Vegas (and probably the world). Betting the over had an edge of about 5%. Betting both had an edge at about 1%. Even with double the action, it is still less than half the value to bet both sides, instead of just one. There was absolutely no reason to arbitrage that.

Now this example is gold, and I'm not sure if the forum deserves it anymore, based on the directions it has been going, but here it is:

There is a baseball future I am looking at right now. Yes or no to make the playoffs. I am seeing a +1300 and -1200. At those numbers, someone could bet $1000 on the yes and $12920 on the no and win about $80 no matter what. But that $80 is only 0.57% edge on the $13920 bet. Tied up for the next five to six months. Lots of better things someone could do with their money for six months than earn half a percent. If it was a rugby game with those numbers, and I would not be able to figure out which was the better side, earning 0.57% in one day would be awesome. But finding arbitrage at numbers like +1300 and -1200 take a lot of work just to find two or three per day, and it would probably be $100 limits on accounts, which means only earning $8.

But if I look around, it is common to find a +1200 one place and -1300 at another place on a college football money line. Now look at the example I first used again:
+1300 and -1200 is a 0.57% player edge.
That means -1300 and +1200 is only a 0.57% house edge.
Most random things in a sportsbook are a 4.54% house edge (or more).
Just by line shopping, someone can routinely remove 80 to 90% of the house edge.
Again, finding -280 and +300 is very rare and is only a 0.8% player edge. Finding +280 and -300 is a lot more common. I can usually find something like that every time I pick up my phone, and cuts the house edge from 4.5% to only 0.8%.

Middles are very similar, If there is an under 57.5 and over 56.5 in an NBA 1q, the chance of it landing exactly on the number doesn't make it +EV to bet both sides. But it does cut the house edge significantly, and it is much more likely one of those sides is a good bet. The extra step of finding the value of each half-point isn't too big a deal. I just use pinnacle's drop down menu and trust that. Can't imagine anything better. Even putting in a huge amount of work to find the actual rates for each league could be obsolete in a few years.

Reading sports betting BS on the internet, it so often seems most guys want to take a position, ("good defense, injuries on offense, and cold weather, bet the under") then they try to find the best number on their opinion. It should be the exact opposite. I will almost always find the best numbers, then decide which position to take. If the numbers don't cut the house edge to around 1% or less, I usually don't bother with it, or will only bet very small. Best thing would be to have access to a few markets. Bovada and 5dimes (when it was around), were the easiest to find off-market numbers. But also the quickest to cut people off. Having those, plus pinnacle and cris, and Draft Kings and William Hill, and Circa and Westgate, would be the absolute best thing to do. Some people can figure out ways to have them all at their finger tips.

Eventually, the hardest part becomes getting enough money down. For spread, total, money line, should be much less of a problem. But those are generally efficient and every place usually has the same or very similar numbers. Alternate lines, 1q, team totals, team to score first, player props, etc., are much easier to find good numbers. Of the seven Nevada sportsbooks I have on my phone, only one has fairly high limits for those type of bets. Five will usually have limits of around $100 to $300. Four of those five, I can bet again a few minutes later after giving them a chance to move the number. Either my account is flagged or they check to see that they have a soft number, and it is rare to be able to bet more than once or twice. Only one is so tacky that I can only make one limit bet. It cost cost over $1 billion to build the Bellagio, and they have a market cap of $20 billion, and they have Jamie Foxx on TV every five minutes, how is MGM going to limit me to $250 on an NBA game? One is both weird and tacky. Sometimes I can bet $500 and bet it a few times. Most of the time it is rejected and the line moves. WTF Boyd, I'm not a line service.

Great post.

..............................

I believe an edge can be realized in college basketball by scoping out the home/away records and noting teams that are much stronger home than away
you're talking about 19 and 20 year olds - some of whom may be less than comfortable traveling cross country - and are likely to be more sensitive than grown men to the cheers and boos of raucous crowds
in researching this I found that college teams win 64.3% of their home games while NBA teams win only 60% of home games
the linked article on this is a good one
the standard is the same as the NBA - to take 3 points away from the home team - but in many instances the home team may be worth more
are the books aware of this?..............of course..............that does not mean they react to it correctly every time
this is primarily what I used when I picked (mostly) college ball here and went 16-8-1 on spread and over/under bets and 6-3 on money line bets for roughly a 17% R.O.I.
(see link) - all of the picks were time stamped and documented and viewed by thousands - not a large sample size, granted, but still

note in the image these records for the past year:

Kansas.................... 13-1 home.................4-6 away............................................this is extreme
Texas Tech.....................11-4 home......................5-4 away
Oklahoma...............................10-3 home..........................................4-6 away......................again - extreme

this is not the case with most teams but it shows itself with many college teams - it is not in any way unusual





https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/29749-b-ball-picks-2017-2018/9/



http://www.madduxsports.com/library/cbb/putting-a-value-on-home-court-advantage-in-college-basketball.html#:~:text=In%20college%20basketball%2C%20there%20is,teams%20when%20setting%20their%20odds.



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