2021 Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown

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April 30th, 2021 at 10:48:47 AM permalink

I think I just heard on the live NBC broadcast King Fury is out with a fever.
Bummer.
https://www.paulickreport.com/news/triple-crown/king-fury-out-of-derby-with-a-fever-elevated-white-cell-count/
19 runners now for tomorrow.
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For the Kentucky Oaks I like #14, #5, #10, #4. GL

Keeneone

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April 30th, 2021 at 3:38:05 PM permalink

Malathaat won the Kentucky Oaks over Search Results. Entertaining race down to the wire.

https://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=CD&raceDate=04/30/2021&cy=USA&rn=11

onenickelmiracle

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April 30th, 2021 at 5:15:54 PM permalink

Good luck, safe race.

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onenickelmiracle

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May 1st, 2021 at 7:45:21 AM permalink

$300 to win on Hot Rod Charlie via TVG risk free bet new sign up. Didn't really read the terms and fine print, hope I didn't miss something pertinent.

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mwalz9

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May 1st, 2021 at 9:03:47 AM permalink

Got my bets in...

I'm ALL IN on the 14!

***$200 on the 14 to win.
$10 Tri Box 14/1,8,9,15,17/1,8,9,15,17 Costs $200
$600 hedge on 14 to show.

$1000 total lay.

***$200 win bet is a Risk Free Promo.

Johnzimbo

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May 1st, 2021 at 10:55:48 AM permalink

This would be the last race I would ever bet on Essential Quality, 2-1 or so in a 19 hors field seems like zero value to me....so he likely wins :)

I am taking a shot with Mandaloun, tossing his last race and hoping he bounces back at a nice price

speedycrap

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May 1st, 2021 at 11:10:07 AM permalink

Yesterday, I put $400 on Malaahaat to show. Today, I put my money on EQ.

lilredrooster

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May 1st, 2021 at 11:14:39 AM permalink

.....................

the NBC commentator made a very interesting remark in the Oaks - he said that it looked like Luis Saez on Coach steered away from Malathaat when they were very close together to avoid bumping or cutting him off

he was implying that Luis was maybe being a little bit timid because he was DQed from the Derby 2 years ago

is it possible Luis will be a little bit timid today if he gets in between horses?

I think the answer is no - but I can't be sure of that - nobody can know what's in a jock's mind - that DQ had to have hurt very much

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onenickelmiracle

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May 1st, 2021 at 12:14:10 PM permalink

EX$2.00
1,3,8,9,17,19/1,3,7-9,17,19,20
CHURCHILL DOWNS$84.00
RACE 12

I am a robot.

SOOPOO

SOOPOO

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May 1st, 2021 at 2:07:34 PM permalink

Hot Rod Charlie to win.

FinsRule

FinsRule

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May 1st, 2021 at 2:44:59 PM permalink

Quote: onenickelmiracle
$300 to win on Hot Rod Charlie via TVG risk free bet new sign up. Didn't really read the terms and fine print, hope I didn't miss something pertinent.

You have to bet the $300 you get back.

Keeneone

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May 1st, 2021 at 2:59:49 PM permalink

Based on the 2 other recent 3 year old route races (Oaks and Pat Day), forwardly placed speed has done well. So it is logical to think front runners/pacers should do well in the Derby. Of course many will also recognize this (jockeys/trainers/owners) and a speed duel could develop. Throw in the crowd noise and things could get crazy on the front end and set things up for a closer.
Choose an angle and place your bets.
I will be cheering for Midnight Bourbon, Dynamic One, and Helium.

lilredrooster

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May 1st, 2021 at 3:06:12 PM permalink

Quote: FinsRule
You have to bet the $300 you get back.

yes, they call it "risk free" and that's false advertising
maybe I'm being too critical since it is a very good promotion

still, it's not risk free - because if you lose the first bet of $200 you can then lose all the bets on your wagering credit

so you will have lost $200

obviously not risk free

if they gave you back the $200 in cash that you could withdraw - that would be risk free

many corporations are guilty of false advertising now - the Feds, and the FTC are weak sisters who let them get away with almost anything

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onenickelmiracle

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May 1st, 2021 at 3:26:11 PM permalink

Quote: FinsRule
You have to bet the $300 you get back.

Yes I know. These sites truthfully are confusing and not totally intuitive. I'm going to have to look to find the "free play" if my horse doesn't win.

I am a robot.

onenickelmiracle

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May 1st, 2021 at 4:01:36 PM permalink

Quote: lilredrooster
yes, they call it "risk free" and that's false advertising
maybe I'm being too critical since it is a very good promotion

still, it's not risk free - because if you lose the first bet of $200 you can then lose all the bets on your wagering credit

so you will have lost $200

obviously not risk free

if they gave you back the $200 in cash that you could withdraw - that would be risk free

many corporations are guilty of false advertising now - the Feds, and the FTC are weak sisters who let them get away with almost anything

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There are risks, you are right.

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lilredrooster

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May 1st, 2021 at 4:07:24 PM permalink

Quote: onenickelmiracle
EX$2.00
1,3,8,9,17,19/1,3,7-9,17,19,20
CHURCHILL DOWNS$84.00
RACE 12

dude - you had the 8-7 - I don't know what their odds were but both were 15/1 on the morning line - nice - I think a big payout congrats

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lilredrooster

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May 1st, 2021 at 4:14:30 PM permalink

Quote: lilredrooster
dude - you had the 8-7 - I don't know what their odds were but both were 15/1 on the morning line - nice - I think a big payout congrats

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wooohoooo........................$503.60.........................you can take it to the bank!!!!!!!!!!

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onenickelmiracle

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May 1st, 2021 at 4:23:09 PM permalink

Yeah I did. Thought I bet $10 to win on the 8, but didn't. Decided to bet $20 to win on 7 and 14. $50 place and show on 7, that's over $1000. Live in pick 3.

Quote: my bet
P3$0.50
2,5,7-9,19/1,4,5,7/1,2,5,7
CHURCHILL DOWNS$48.00
RACE 12

To be fair, I have deposited $1176 $1024 today. Cashed $1413 so far.

Last edited by: onenickelmiracle on May 1, 2021

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onenickelmiracle

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May 1st, 2021 at 5:04:35 PM permalink

Quote: onenickelmiracle
Yeah I did. Thought I bet $10 to win on the 8, but didn't. Decided to bet $20 to win on 7 and 14. $50 place and show on 7, that's over $1000. Live in pick 3.

Quote: my bet
P3$0.50
2,5,7-9,19/1,4,5,7/1,2,5,7
CHURCHILL DOWNS$48.00
RACE 12

To be fair, I have deposited $1176 $1024 today. Cashed $1413 so far.

Well that's apparently a dead bet. #9 Supremacy. Oh darn and I go to all those Klan meetings, jk :D
Oh I should have posted it after the results were in like Mdawg and his stock picks.

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Keeneone

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May 1st, 2021 at 5:33:38 PM permalink

Medina Spirit wins it. Another win for Baffert.
https://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=CD&raceDate=05/01/2021&cy=USA&rn=12
No joy for my horses. Best finish was 6th with Midnight Bourbon. Speed held up today.

FinsRule

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May 1st, 2021 at 7:07:27 PM permalink

A nice win for me. Put $50 on him in March at 20-1. Won some other futures as well.

My most successful Derby.

onenickelmiracle

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May 1st, 2021 at 9:06:38 PM permalink

Quote: FinsRule
A nice win for me. Put $50 on him in March at 20-1. Won some other futures as well.

My most successful Derby.

Me too. Love it when a favorite doesn't win. Used to have a friend who I couldn't convince betting the favorite was any better than any other and it wasn't a system. He was super cheap and would bet like $2, sometimes $5 or $10 later on if he was really bold and confident. Some how I killed it betting Charlestown, Buffalo Raceway and Mountaineer a little. I know I was lucky and will not do it again, everything just turned out right for me having favorites off the board. The pick 6 at Charlestown was 8/7,8/8/3/3/3, sure seemed to be my secret, especially having the 3 towards the end. Might have even made it semi worthwhile staying home all day in bed.

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lilredrooster

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May 2nd, 2021 at 2:17:10 AM permalink

......................

I like your Derby strategy ONM - exacta wheeling or boxing 7 or 8 shots with the fave out of it

I would have done that if I had thought of it - will do it next year - I think it's great with a very large field - might do it in the Breeders Cup

for very hard to predict races like the Derby sometimes the best handicapping is no handicapping at all - not saying you didn't handicap what you bet - but I wouldn't - too many unknowns - I like to handicap in a much smaller field

you learned me something

the favorite - morning line 2/1 - was cold in the betting and went off at 3/1
I believe that a fave given the cold shoulder by the bettors is one of the best indicators you can get from the tote
along with extreme bet downs
favorites that go cold like that lose very, very often

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onenickelmiracle

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May 2nd, 2021 at 3:09:51 AM permalink

Quote: lilredrooster
......................

I like your Derby strategy ONM - exacta wheeling or boxing 7 or 8 shots with the fave out of it

I would have done that if I had thought of it - will do it next year - I think it's great with a very large field - might do it in the Breeders Cup

you learned me something

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Yes it was a strategy. You guys had some good insight which I remembered and there was some sentiment on the feed I watched which believed #14 was a false favorite. I did notice only 2 of ten or more TVG guys picked #14 as well. I didn't put much time into it thinking and some of the extra horses besides 7,8,9 were out of fear and almost just random. However I will add, my brother asked me for his risk free bet and somehow he got stuck on 14. I didn't want to sell it, but I thought, it's as good as the 7 and 8 and I could be wrong. I really regretted it as the discussion went on. #8 Medina spirit, attracted me and repelled me for the same reason, just because one of my exes lived in Medina. It drew me to it and not enough, so shame. Wasn't betting the favorite, so it didn't matter.

Actually was thinking 789 tribox, but decided to be more conservative with an EX with more horses. Senior Investment taught me that(2589 I'll never forget. Was an old important number for me). Really it's not about the large field, that's part of it, but it's more about not feeling the favorite. Bridge jumper races teach you that too, favorite out, big pays. I really feel I'm only good at handicapping the handicappers, looking for the subliminals, and trying to break the truth codes. I guess with horses, I'm playing poker and looking at convictions and deep hidden fears, to say it another way(See I said "I guess with horses" That's an accidental tell about lack of conviction, but not always, context matters). Pay attention to what people seem to say by accident.

Or maybe I'm just a lucky idiot like the hair dresser and the lotto player, but I doubt it. I cannot do anything looking at muted screens, I need to hear someone talking or I need to read opinions. When I'm just staring at screens, I cannot do anything and to bet is random then and pointless. Maybe a live race, I can observe something in a horse, but it's really hard to see something and really know if you're seeing something or looking to see something.

Just remembered, I do like to do 2 stupid things and 1 smart thing or 2 smart things and 2 stupid things generally when betting at times, but not to an exact ratio, just the sentiment is important. You can think of it as 2 unpredictable things and 1 predictable thing. I might do 3 predictable things but not 3 unpredictable things because that's just thoughtless and random. In this example 3 unpredictable things could possibly make sense if nothing seems predictable or imaginable, but that's a tough sell. At that point should you even bet?

This is very likely true.

I am a robot.

Keeneone

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May 2nd, 2021 at 8:07:23 AM permalink

Congrats to Fins and onm, well done with your wins. :)

Yesterday Soup and Sandwich was eased during the race (finishing last). He is fine today, just had a breathing issue (flipped palate).
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The Preakness is gonna be good. Plenty of solid runners skipped the Derby and the top 4 finishers were close across the line.
May 15, 2021 @ ~ 5:45pm ET
2021 Preakness Stakes - Grade 1 - Pimlico Race Course Baltimore, Maryland, U.S.
Distance 1 3⁄16 mi

SOOPOO

SOOPOO

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May 2nd, 2021 at 10:18:13 AM permalink

Quote: Keeneone
Congrats to Fins and onm, well done with your wins. :)

Yesterday Soup and Sandwich was eased during the race (finishing last). He is fine today, just had a breathing issue (flipped palate).
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The Preakness is gonna be good. Plenty of solid runners skipped the Derby and the top 4 finishers were close across the line.
May 15, 2021 @ ~ 5:45pm ET
2021 Preakness Stakes - Grade 1 - Pimlico Race Course Baltimore, Maryland, U.S.
Distance 1 3⁄16 mi

Medina will be around 8-1 you think?

Keeneone

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May 2nd, 2021 at 11:34:53 AM permalink

Quote: SOOPOO
Medina will be around 8-1 you think?

Assuming he runs, my early guess is he will be the favorite, something closer to 2/1.
But we don't have much info yet (horses/posts etc), so it is difficult to predict.

Last edited by: Keeneone on May 2, 2021

MoneyK1ng

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May 2nd, 2021 at 3:47:11 PM permalink

oh nice

lilredrooster

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May 3rd, 2021 at 2:33:30 AM permalink

.................

Medina did honest fractions
but nobody except the longshot Soup and Sandwich came out early to duel with him
and Soup and Sandwich wasn't that close and Velazquez surely knew he was an unworthy shot and kept him running evenly

that's definitely not going to happen in the Preakness
somebody, maybe a rabbit from a trainer with more than one entry is going to get in his face early - for sure

I'm predicting that he will have a much tougher race in the Preakness and that he will not prevail

*

Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 3, 2021

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lilredrooster

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May 9th, 2021 at 9:53:38 AM permalink

..................

incredible news

Medina Spirit may be stripped of his KY Derby win because of a drug infraction

Baffert's nefarious doings again - he will again claim he's been wrongly accused.................for what?.............the 10th time?

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/05/09/sport/medina-spirit-betamethasone-bob-baffert/index.html

sorry, I didn't realize this had already been posted in the other horse thread

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Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 9, 2021

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Keeneone

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May 9th, 2021 at 7:06:24 PM permalink

At this point Baffert is in a really bad spot. This is the Kentucky Derby. I lost all faith in him after the Justify nonsense. I am glad this came out quickly before the Preakness. This sport needs to be cleaned up and many jurisdictions are trying to make this happen.

For fans of 'The League', Bob Baffert is "forever unclean"!
:)

ahiromu

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May 10th, 2021 at 12:57:21 PM permalink

The worst part of this is, after bragging for a few weeks, I now have people (who know nothing about racing) asking me if I can still win.

Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"

lilredrooster

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May 11th, 2021 at 6:38:02 AM permalink

.......................

this is the best story I could find on the Baffert situation and goes into detail about the 2nd round of testing:

Baffert wants his horse to run in the Preakness - that's up in the air - I think the Maryland authorities want to see the results of the 2nd round of testing before they make their decision - but it's not clear if the results will become available that quickly

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2021/05/10/medina-spirit-bob-baffert-samples-tested/

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Keeneone

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May 11th, 2021 at 9:51:26 AM permalink

The story is evolving. This guy is in big trouble IMHO.

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/250061/baffert-blames-medina-spirit-positive-on-ointment

Keeneone

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May 11th, 2021 at 12:48:48 PM permalink

An agreement has been made so Medina Spirit (and other Baffert runners) can enter the Preakness with conditions (see article).
https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/Medina_Spirit_to_run_in_Preakness_after_agreement_reached_123
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Preakness entry and post position draw coming soon...

billryan

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May 11th, 2021 at 12:58:11 PM permalink

What a joke.

The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened

lilredrooster

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May 11th, 2021 at 1:18:19 PM permalink

...................

it's hard to believe a Vet wouldn't know what was in an ointment he was either applying himself or recommending for a Derby horse and that the ointment contained a banned substance

maybe he got his degree from an online university

Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 11, 2021

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lilredrooster

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May 12th, 2021 at 2:54:37 AM permalink

..................

I was really surprised to learn that Pimlico will actually be renovated and revitalized as part of a $400 million dollar project
the track has been turned over to the city

there has been talk of this for at least 25 years but nothing has ever happened
now, it looks like it actually is going to happen

currently Pimlico is a very run down facility

it would be an interesting story to know how Maryland and Baltimore became so important to racing in the past
Baltimore is a smallish city compared to New York, Chicago or L.A. or Detroit in its prime

I live in Maryland and have been a patron of both Laurel and Pimlico but I don't really know how this came about

Maryland was very proud of its racing tradition - that's why the NFL team was named the Colts

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/pimlico-baltimore-redevelopment/2021/05/10/3cac95e6-b1a1-11eb-ab43-bebddc5a0f65_story.html

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lilredrooster

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May 12th, 2021 at 5:02:28 AM permalink

........................

Preakness Odds and Post Positions:

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Keeneone

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May 12th, 2021 at 9:26:25 AM permalink

2021 Preakness past performances:

Early Brisnet:
https://horseracingnation.ontraport.net/tl/1735
DRF classic:
https://www.drf.com/classic/pp-details/05-15-2021/PIM/13/D/USA

Admittedly, this field is not as deep or talented as I had predicted. Only 3 horse entered from the Derby. Still a nice event even with the drama/issues/problems of Medina Spirit/B Baffert.

rxwine

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May 12th, 2021 at 9:37:59 AM permalink

I thought of Lance Armstrong when I watched Baffert interviewed, though they look nothing alike.

Sanitized for Your Protection

lilredrooster

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May 12th, 2021 at 11:14:37 AM permalink

..................

you know the old saying:

"fool me once shame on you..........fool me twice shame on me"

Racing Authorities to Baffert:

"fool me once shame on you..................but go ahead and fool me 29 more times"

.....................(~:\

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lilredrooster

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May 14th, 2021 at 2:02:45 AM permalink

................

here is the Timeform breakdown of the Preakness:

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Keeneone

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May 16th, 2021 at 9:03:06 AM permalink

Rombauer won the Preakness. Speed faded late and a closer won. The three Derby comebackers finished 2nd, 3rd, and 4th. No Triple Crown run for Medina Spirit. On to the Belmont Stakes June 5th...

https://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=PIM&raceDate=05/15/2021&cy=USA&rn=13

billryan

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May 16th, 2021 at 9:37:19 AM permalink

It's just as well. The last thing NYC needs is 110,000 fans gathering to see the Belmont. With no Triple Crown, they will only get about 40,000.

The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened

lilredrooster

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May 16th, 2021 at 10:25:00 AM permalink

......................

what a great pic (IMO anyway) I just found of racing back in the day:

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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him

speedycrap

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May 16th, 2021 at 10:44:50 AM permalink

Quote: lilredrooster
......................

what a great pic (IMO anyway) I just found of racing back in the day:

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Those GOOD OLD DAYS.
$2 across on 1 $1 exactor key 1 with 3,5. $1 box 1.3. Then the bell rings. GOOD OLD DAYS.

ThatDonGuy

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May 16th, 2021 at 10:54:28 AM permalink

Quote: speedycrap
Those GOOD OLD DAYS.
$2 across on 1 $1 exactor key 1 with 3,5. $1 box 1.3. Then the bell rings. GOOD OLD DAYS.

What tracks had exactas for under $5 in "the good old days"? For that matter, when did Triple Crown races start having exactas?

On top of that, you had to stand in line for the across the board bet (and that assumes there was a $2 ATB window, as opposed to standing in separate win, place, and show lines - the only ATB window I remember seeing was for $100), and then go to a different window for the exacta.

"How did they do the Pick Six, or the trifecta?" Back in the days before any-window wagering? They didn't - at least at the tracks I went to, most of the betting system was hard wired, and it couldn't handle exotics involving more than two numbers at a time.

lilredrooster