Super Bowl 55

Quote: Keeneone

2020 NFL scoring was highest for a season:
https://www.nfl.com/news/2020-finishes-as-highest-scoring-season-in-nfl-history

Thanks for the article! It inspired me to do a similar one of my own: NFL Average Scores per Game 2000-2020.

I welcome all comments.

Quote: Wizard

Thanks for the article! It inspired me to do a similar one of my own: NFL Average Scores per Game 2000-2020.

I welcome all comments.

. The increase this year is not an aberration in my opinion. It is a direct result of the league instructing referees to not call offensive holding to nearly the degree it did in the past.
I also think, but less strongly, that lack of crowd noise helped road team offenses, but not as much as the refereeing changes.
I also think the increased number of defensive ‘helmet to helmet’ fouls helped increase offense.
Given all that, I feel my over 56.5 has a 50% chance of winning.

If you're going to be in Vegas around Super Bowl time, or you're looking for a good reason to come. shoot me a PM.

Quote: Mission146

What would you guys do here? This opens up a world of possibilities. An obvious way to lock up profits (if you were inclined AND Wizard would hate this) is to simply take the Chiefs on the ML for some amount such that you profit either way.

At that amount of money, I would have to bet the other side. I've even been betting against them in the earlier rounds, so I might already be down $50,000 to 100,000. But lets not go there, because it's not as fun. I also don't want to give up $10,000 to $15,000 in value that comes with just betting the Chiefs moneyline at market value.

I would spend this week traveling around, trying to find whatever +EV bets I could that correlate the strongest with a Chiefs win: alternate spreads, halves, quarters, Mahomes TDs, etc. It is possible the Tampa bet loses, and KC goes under 6 every quarter, only wins one quarter, doesn't cover any of the spread bets and Mahomes doesn't throw a single TD. It's also possible the Tampa bet wins, KC team totals all go over, and they cover all the +2.5 and 10.5s, etc.

Depending on how much I can bet during the week, Sunday morning I would bet the Chiefs money line, trying for around $300,000 total on the other side. But if there is enough value, up to $500,000 on KC.

Quote: Wizard

Thanks for the article! It inspired me to do a similar one of my own: NFL Average Scores per Game 2000-2020.

I welcome all comments.

Good stuff. For betting, median can as important as the mean, any thought of looking into that?

Quote: DRich

BetMGM had a $2.3 million dollar bet on the Bucs today +3.5 -115.

Signed up with them last night. Looks like they could me my new favorite account. Quickly had everything I deposited in action. Then more through at the kiosk. Most of the best numbers are gone. Still have Bucs +4 -120 and +6.5 - 165. Both of those are better than the 3.5 which has to be the best in Las Vegas. Probably not taking million dollar bets on props, though.

Quote: TomG

Good stuff. For betting, median can as important as the mean, any thought of looking into that?

Good point. I have that for my old data only and it would be a pain to get at.

Quote: SOOPOO

I hope you can hand me the $$ when I come to Vegas. I kind of like the idea of lunch with you, DRich and the Wiz with all 3 of you paying up simultaneously! If speedycrap is in town that could be 4 collections!

If I go to Vegas and come home, It will cost me $2K for a quarantine.
Wizard, I will offer you KC -4 even money for US$30????

Quote: speedycrap

Wizard, I will offer you KC -4 even money for US$30????

No thanks. I can get KC -3 -120 anywhere, which is a much better bet.

Quote: Wizard

No thanks. I can get KC -3 -120 anywhere, which is a much better bet.

I am sorry. I meant I would take KC -4 even. You will have TB _4 even. ???