Poll

5 votes (26.31%)
1 vote (5.26%)
2 votes (10.52%)
4 votes (21.05%)
3 votes (15.78%)
1 vote (5.26%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
1 vote (5.26%)
3 votes (15.78%)

19 members have voted

TomG
TomG
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
  • Threads: 15
  • Posts: 2339
February 7th, 2021 at 9:13:07 AM permalink
Found a no 2-point conversion at -200 last night. It was over the counter, so they would have taken any amount I wanted, but over the limit on the app, so I'll count it as one of my max bets. Other "max" bets I've made:

4q under 16.5
Le'Veon Bell first rush under 3.5 -105 (and again at -110)
Players with pass attempt under 2.5 -140
Hill to score before Godwin -150
Gronkowski over 2.5 +120
Brate under 3.5 -130
Hitchens over 5.5 -120
Hill over 6.5 -120
Bucs + 6.5 -155

Biggest bet was on something that was just a bad line. Not anything obscure, fair number was no less than -150 and it was first up at -110, and I happened to be in a sportsbook, where I could bet it a few times. Bet the other side at +120, with about a 5 to 10% chance of landing in the middle. Not a good bet (no-vig market price around +105, but could not bring myself to get crushed on such a great bet).

Then a lot of other stuff that was still good, but I didn't think was as strong. It is strange thinking about the theory that sports betting can make a game "interesting" for the customers. The amount of money on bets I have is about the same as the combined cost of the last two cars I bought (and I wish I had more; maybe next year I can get it to the combined cost of the three cars I've ever bought). And I'll probably only have a vague idea of how it is going during the game. A slow start would be great. Either 0-0 first quarter, or 7-0 on a Mahomes to Hill TD would be great.

The scoregasm bet is interesting. The No is just so clearly obvious. So lets assume the bet is either No, or nothing. The lrr method is much better than The Wizard method, even though it might be less accurate. Look back at how often one of these scoregerms has happened in the past four to five years, and use that rate to make a line. Even if we are off, it's still ok, because each time it happens, it decreases the chance of it happening again. If there is a flaw in the method, it just means we are making an even better bet than we would think. If we use the other method of seeing how often each team scores a certain number and use that against the current possible ways, and we are off on our calculations, we might end up with a bad estimate of what number to bet. I would hypothesize that there could be a correlation between the scores of the two teams in a game. A safety or 6- or 8-point touchdown by one team, means going for two becomes even more likely. That means when one team lands on a rare, like 18, 25, or 32, the other team is more likely to as well. What could have been a 31-24 game, becomes 32-25.
kewlj
kewlj
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
  • Threads: 214
  • Posts: 4422
February 7th, 2021 at 1:11:36 PM permalink
Did I just see the superbowl is cancelled due to covid? SOOPOO did I just see that? lol

In a very odd development, I have zero bets on the super bowl. That certainly hasn't occurred since long before I moved to Las Vegas. I don't know what happened, I just didn't like any side or over/under bets and didn't feel like playing a bunch of prop bets. I will still watch the game as I have a preference, but no "action" for me this year.
mcallister3200
mcallister3200
Joined: Dec 29, 2013
  • Threads: 17
  • Posts: 2773
February 7th, 2021 at 1:43:47 PM permalink
Not betting any props like I generally do either. Didnít have any apps loaded up since I donít bet sports year round and I just didnít find the thought of standing in slow moving lines with people probably standing closer than they should be very appealing, only doing lines for necessities for the moment.

I hear circa has prop limits at 10k over the app for what itís worth. Theyíre a different breed from the nitty shops thatís for sure.
speedycrap
speedycrap
Joined: Oct 13, 2013
  • Threads: 46
  • Posts: 1246
February 7th, 2021 at 3:10:54 PM permalink
Quote: kewlj

Did I just see the superbowl is cancelled due to covid? SOOPOO did I just see that? lol

In a very odd development, I have zero bets on the super bowl. That certainly hasn't occurred since long before I moved to Las Vegas. I don't know what happened, I just didn't like any side or over/under bets and didn't feel like playing a bunch of prop bets. I will still watch the game as I have a preference, but no "action" for me this year.

Just put $20 on anything, then order piazza and wings. Have a beer, relax and enjoy the game. If time is tight, I will take KC -4 even for US$20.
speedycrap
speedycrap
Joined: Oct 13, 2013
  • Threads: 46
  • Posts: 1246
February 7th, 2021 at 3:13:03 PM permalink
I am , now, at a restaurant somewhere in Vancouver. Ordering food and beer. Relax and enjoy the game. Hopefully, KC -4 will win , then I will have a free meal and a lazy Sunday afternoon.
teliot
teliot
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
  • Threads: 40
  • Posts: 2221
Thanks for this post from:
RogerKint
February 7th, 2021 at 3:30:46 PM permalink
Yay! Sportsball!

The thing with two groups of people from different places who are going to do stuff with a ball for a while and then someone will be called the winner.

May the best troupe win!
Poetry website: www.totallydisconnected.com
smoothgrh
smoothgrh
Joined: Oct 26, 2011
  • Threads: 70
  • Posts: 797
February 7th, 2021 at 3:37:58 PM permalink
The call is Heads (the Wizard is disappointed), and the coin flip winner is Heads!
teliot
teliot
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
  • Threads: 40
  • Posts: 2221
February 7th, 2021 at 3:49:49 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I make a post like this every year handicapping the game. My method is quite simple. My estimate of the points scored by a give team is:

(average points scored per game + average points opponent allows)/2.

I do this for the entire season, including the post-season games.

For Kansas City's 19 games they scored 533 points and allowed 403.

For Tampa Bay's 20 games, they scored 584 and allowed 424.

Taking an average per game for KC:

Scored = 28.05
Allowed = 21.21

Taking an average per game for TB:

Scored = 29.20
Allowed = 21.20

Using my formula, I estimate:
KC to score (28.05 + 21.20)/2 = 24.63
TB to score (29.20 + 21.21) = 25.21

So, TB score score 0.58 more points.

The over/under I make 24.63 + 25.21 = 49.83.

The early lines are:
TB + 3.5
Ov/un 55.5

Thus, my crude handicapping recommend Tampa Bay and the Under. Not surprisingly, these are the underdog and the under, which are the sharp side of most games.

The question for the poll is what is your prediction?

You should use the average points for TB in home games, not overall, for this!
Poetry website: www.totallydisconnected.com
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
  • Threads: 77
  • Posts: 7917
February 7th, 2021 at 6:59:00 PM permalink
I went undefeated on my bet and didn't even have to stress the game. I bet HEADS at no juice of course.
Order from chaos
Hunterhill
Hunterhill
Joined: Aug 1, 2011
  • Threads: 46
  • Posts: 1923
February 7th, 2021 at 7:13:38 PM permalink
Brady wins again, can life get any better
The mountain is tall but grass grows on top of the mountain.

  • Jump to: