Poll

5 votes (26.31%)
1 vote (5.26%)
2 votes (10.52%)
4 votes (21.05%)
3 votes (15.78%)
1 vote (5.26%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
1 vote (5.26%)
3 votes (15.78%)

19 members have voted

DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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February 6th, 2021 at 1:40:16 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Along those lines, an argument could be made for winning a bet on "even" in roulette if the ball lands in zero. Zero is an even number.

So...
Single zero is even?
Double zero is odd???
LOL 🤪
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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February 6th, 2021 at 2:23:20 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

My analysis is based on games since 1994, when the two-point conversion rule came along.

The argument that this should be a high scoring game and more likely to be a Scorigan is a decent one, but there is no easy and agreeable way to adjust for that. I think my estimate is a very good starting point. If I had to actually bet, I'd put the probability at about 2%.

. I can稚 really argue with you about the final guess of 2%. Just the added likelihood of missed XP due to it being moved back 15 yards is a big deal. Since you have the data.... what is number of 2 point conversion attempts in 1994 and 1995 compared to 2019 and 2020?
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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February 6th, 2021 at 2:38:14 PM permalink
Quote: TinMan

This is highly unlikely but the general idea can come up. Maybe 5-8 years ago there was a SuperBowl with a prop bet on the number of kickoffs. Let痴 say the line was 9.5. There were 9 traditional kickoffs plus a free kick after a safety. I forget how that was graded but it was at least arguable both ways.


That's a little different. The NFL rules specifically differentiate between a "kickoff" and a "safety kick"; "A kickoff puts the ball in play at the start of each half, after a try, and after a successful field goal" (6-1-1(a)); "A safety kick puts the ball in play after a safety" (6-1-1(b)). NCAA Football rule 4-16-6 also specifically limits a "kickoff" to the start of a half, after a try, and after a successful field goal - not after a safety. The distinction needs to be made as, in both sets of rules, you cannot punt on a kickoff but you can on a kick after a safety.

Little-known fact: if the kicking team punts the kick after a safety, it can recover the ball if it goes at least 10 yards, just like on a kickoff.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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February 6th, 2021 at 2:41:11 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Along those lines, an argument could be made for winning a bet on "even" in roulette if the ball lands in zero. Zero is an even number.




that's funny
I'm imagining a movie where comedian Kevin Hart gets into a big dispute with the Pit Boss by claiming he won his even bet when zero came


(~:\




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𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳.........𝖤𝖽𝗀𝖺𝗋 𝖠𝗅𝗅𝖺𝗇 𝖯𝗈𝖾
Wizard
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Wizard
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February 6th, 2021 at 3:24:59 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

what is number of 2 point conversion attempts in 1994 and 1995 compared to 2019 and 2020?



This new page answers just that, except conversions MADE.

2020 had 126
2019 had 108
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
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February 6th, 2021 at 9:17:03 PM permalink
I just added prop sheets for MGM, Wynn, TI, and William Hill to my Super Bowl Proposition Bets page.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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February 7th, 2021 at 4:06:09 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I just added prop sheets for MGM, Wynn, TI, and William Hill to my Super Bowl Proposition Bets page.



Are you going to tell us, which, if any, you have $$ riding on?
Wizard
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Wizard
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February 7th, 2021 at 6:26:08 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Are you going to tell us, which, if any, you have $$ riding on?



As usual, I have first and last score to be touchdowns, both both teams combined and individually. No two-point conversion. Most of my money is piggy-backing on somebody and I don't know his big bets yet.

Sorry for no tips this year. I perceived very little value. Might be because not as much square action this year.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
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lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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February 7th, 2021 at 8:52:28 AM permalink
...........................


I'm dutching on the color of liquid that will be poured on the winning coach


spreading $100 this way



$65 on orange at +150........................payout........................$162.50.............................net profit.............................$62.50



$35 on lime/green/yellow at +350.................................................payout........................$157.50.............................net profit.............................$57.50







I guess red got in there at +165 because that's the predominant color of the Bucs
red has not been the color in the past 20 years, maybe never





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𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳.........𝖤𝖽𝗀𝖺𝗋 𝖠𝗅𝗅𝖺𝗇 𝖯𝗈𝖾

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