Poll

3 votes (20%)
12 votes (80%)
2 votes (13.33%)
1 vote (6.66%)
No votes (0%)
1 vote (6.66%)

15 members have voted

mkl654321
mkl654321
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 65
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November 23rd, 2010 at 7:34:51 PM permalink
Assuming that there is even such a thing any more as a +EV football bet, if such an opportunity arises, would it be most likely because:

1. You are privy to inside information, or have uncovered a particular handicapping analysis that is unique to you, and the books are unaware of

2. The public piles on one side, creating favorable opportunities to bet the other side

3. You catch a middle, or have the ability to arbitrage, and stake out a favorable position

4. The line opens at what your handicapping considers to be a faulty number

5. The Football Fairy whispered in your ear last night

6. Your brother, the weatherman on Channel 11, tells you that a blizzard will hit five minutes before game time
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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November 23rd, 2010 at 9:09:59 PM permalink
I think there are lots of such opportunities. I also think that sports betting is the ripest area for advantage play in the world of gambling. Of those choices I think #2 is the best. In my opinion, handicapping is not the best, and certainly not the easiest, way to beat sports. Some people who I highly respect will vehemently disagree with that, but so be it.

Sports betting, in my opinion, can be beat with zero handicapping ability, which is exactly how much I have, and I do quite well betting on sports. I would list the main angles as:

1. Shopping for soft lines.
2. Exotic bets, like teasers, parlay cards, money lines, run lines, puck lines, and props.
3. Knowing the value of a half point.
4. Having a feel for the way the market is moving and why. If you know the squares are mostly on one side, the other way will often have value.
5. Sticking to underdogs most of the time.

There is no book that will lay out exactly how to beat sports. It is like poker, it requires feel and experience. However, like all forms of gambling, the harder it is to understand, the greater the winnings for those who do.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
KidTwist
KidTwist
Joined: Dec 7, 2010
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 2
December 9th, 2010 at 6:07:20 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I think there are lots of such opportunities. I also think that sports betting is the ripest area for advantage play in the world of gambling. Of those choices I think #2 is the best. In my opinion, handicapping is not the best, and certainly not the easiest, way to beat sports. Some people who I highly respect will vehemently disagree with that, but so be it.

Sports betting, in my opinion, can be beat with zero handicapping ability, which is exactly how much I have, and I do quite well betting on sports. I would list the main angles as:

1. Shopping for soft lines.
2. Exotic bets, like teasers, parlay cards, money lines, run lines, puck lines, and props.
3. Knowing the value of a half point.
4. Having a feel for the way the market is moving and why. If you know the squares are mostly on one side, the other way will often have value.
5. Sticking to underdogs most of the time.

There is no book that will lay out exactly how to beat sports. It is like poker, it requires feel and experience. However, like all forms of gambling, the harder it is to understand, the greater the winnings for those who do.



I've only had 1 losing season over the last 8 years.

The Wizard is right on here. If you are disciplined you will find MANY lines that are "off." The squares never want to admit it, they believe too much in the market itself. All books try to do is balance action --- obviously many times however they have to take a stand. This one question proves my point:

"If the lines are right on, why are you bothering with betting?"

I've won way more on NFL than any random or average chance.

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