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FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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November 5th, 2020 at 4:46:48 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

You can get 11-1 if you want Trump to win now. So if you were asked.... which is more likely... you roll a ‘yo’ on your next roll at the craps table, or Trump gets a second term, Trump retaining the Presidency is much more likely. As of 5pm EST on Thursday......



Wow, I completely disagree with that. Although it’s three hours later so maybe you’ve changed your mind?
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
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November 5th, 2020 at 4:57:34 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Wow, I completely disagree with that. Although it’s three hours later so maybe you’ve changed your mind?

disagree with what? That Trump should be 11-1 or the math about how likely a yo is?

BetFair has Trump currently at 7-1.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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November 5th, 2020 at 5:09:07 PM permalink
I think a yo is more likely. No one is betting Biden -1100. They are just trying to get more sucker money at +700.
mcallister3200
mcallister3200
Joined: Dec 29, 2013
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November 5th, 2020 at 5:36:00 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

I think a yo is more likely. No one is betting Biden -1100. They are just trying to get more sucker money at +700.



Who is “they?” I thought Betfair was peer to peer that just takes a service fee?
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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November 5th, 2020 at 5:45:02 PM permalink
Sorry, I was thinking bovada. I do wonder what the liquidity is in these peer to peer markets right now.
gamerfreak
gamerfreak
Joined: Dec 28, 2014
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Thanks for this post from:
FinsRule
November 5th, 2020 at 6:03:12 PM permalink
This is the best way I have seen so far to track how things are shaking out

https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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November 5th, 2020 at 8:12:05 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Wow, I completely disagree with that. Although it’s three hours later so maybe you’ve changed your mind?

. It’s now 13-1. So still more likely than rolling a yo on one roll. So you believe the odds are off. Go lay the 13-1 then!


New topic.... Republicans defended 197 House seats and went 197-0! (I think?). They were ‘supposed’ to lose 10+ seats. Paco or Tanko.... what odds could you have gotten parlaying al 297 races? I’m sure most had the Republican favored, but maybe Dem favored in 15-20 of those races. 1,000,000-1?
redietz
redietz
Joined: Jun 5, 2019
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November 5th, 2020 at 9:13:29 PM permalink
Betonline.ag took it off the board this morning. You could, however, still bet "whether Melania will divorce Donald if he loses." LOL. Lay -500 for No. Get +300 for Yes.

The best line I heard this morning was from Carville. He said that he told his Democrat friends last night to put away the razor blades and Ambien because Biden would win Pennsylvania by 100,000 votes or so when the tally was final.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
Ace2
Ace2 
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
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November 5th, 2020 at 9:19:09 PM permalink
Quote: redietz

Betonline.ag took it off the board this morning. You could, however, still bet "whether Melania will divorce Donald if he loses." LOL. Lay -500 for No. Get +300 for Yes.

1/13 house edge

Same as the edge on Blackjack insurance (infinite deck )
It’s all about making that GTA
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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November 6th, 2020 at 6:01:26 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

. It’s now 13-1. So still more likely than rolling a yo on one roll. So you believe the odds are off. Go lay the 13-1 then!


New topic.... Republicans defended 197 House seats and went 197-0! (I think?). They were ‘supposed’ to lose 10+ seats. Paco or Tanko.... what odds could you have gotten parlaying al 297 races? I’m sure most had the Republican favored, but maybe Dem favored in 15-20 of those races. 1,000,000-1?



when you look at the actual races, it's not that big a deal. Almost 20 Republicans chose to retire, rather than run for re-election The net result is both parties lost many senior congressmen and years of seniority. One party flipped the Presidency, flipped several states and still has a good shot at flipping the Senate.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.

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