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SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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October 31st, 2020 at 3:23:52 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Anyone have any thoughts on the over/under 160 million votes? The under seems to be a lock, so I’m thinking of throwing a few bucks on it.

I’d like to hear some opinions.

. I’d take the under atveven money. I think there were around 132 million votes in 2016? So no way to tell how many of this huge surge of early voters are just early, versus new. The only word I would not use in this election is ‘lock’.
Ace2
Ace2
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
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November 2nd, 2020 at 4:09:39 PM permalink
At the moment, Bovada’s odds on Biden/Trump are -180 / + 150 (quite different from UK odds). On Betfair Trump is at 2.92 or +192 in American format.

So you can guarantee a 1.5 % profit by backing Biden at -180 and Trump at +192
It’s all about making that GTA
FinsRule
FinsRule 
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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November 2nd, 2020 at 4:27:32 PM permalink
You can get +200 on “Winner of popular vote doesn’t win election” which is pretty much the same thing as Trump.
billryan
billryan
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November 2nd, 2020 at 5:13:41 PM permalink
I'm thinking 165-170 million, so I'd be all over the over in that bet. My only concern is how many votes will be thrown out.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Wizard
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Wizard
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November 3rd, 2020 at 4:08:59 AM permalink
Good election morning, WoV!

According to the betting odds, Trumps chances have increased. Here are the current Betfair odds:

Trump: 2.66
Biden: 1.6

To convert that to the US format:

Trump: +166
Biden -167

In other words, Trump's chances are 37.6%. Just a few days ago they were 35%.

Reminder, no political comments. It's fine to discuss the probability of either candidate winning and current odds, but no opinions of a political nature may be expressed.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
unJon
unJon
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November 3rd, 2020 at 4:17:29 AM permalink
Found someone yesterday willing to offer Biden -130 so plopped a large (for me) bet down.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
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November 3rd, 2020 at 4:47:26 AM permalink
This has probably be said before by the commentators, but here are the important states to watch tonight.

Notation: PT(x) = Probability Trump wins state x.

Southern Three -- If Biden can flip FL, GA, or NC, then Biden wins the whole thing. However, all three are favored to go for Trump. PT(FL) = 60.6%, PT(GA) = 62.2%, PT(NC) = 57.2%.

Must win for Biden -- Biden should be able to flip MI, WI, and NV. If he can't flip all three, I don't see a path for Biden to win. The one of these to watch closely is Wisconsin, PT(WI) = 31.1%.

Must win for Trump -- Ohio. PT(OH) = 69.6%. If Trump loses Ohio, he will lose the whole thing.

On the fence -- If all the predictions above prove correct, then it comes down to PA and AZ. Trump would need to win both to win the election. PT(AZ) = 51%, PT(PA)=39%.

There is also a chance of an electoral college tie, depending on how the districts in Maine and Nebraska fall.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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November 3rd, 2020 at 4:55:11 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

This has probably be said before by the commentators, but here are the important states to watch tonight.

Notation: PT(x) = Probability Trump wins state x.

Southern Three -- If Biden can flip FL, GA, or NC, then Biden wins the whole thing. However, all three are favored to go for Trump. PT(FL) = 60.6%, PT(GA) = 62.2%, PT(NC) = 57.2%.

Must win for Biden -- Biden should be able to flip MI, WI, and NV. If he can't flip all three, I don't see a path for Biden to win. The one of these to watch closely is Wisconsin, PT(WI) = 31.1%.

Must win for Trump -- Ohio. PT(OH) = 69.6%. If Trump loses Ohio, he will lose the whole thing.

On the fence -- If all the predictions above prove correct, then it comes down to PA and AZ. Trump would need to win both to win the election. PT(AZ) = 51%, PT(PA)=39%.

There is also a chance of an electoral college tie, depending on how the districts in Maine and Nebraska fall.




Flip Nevada? I thought you guys went for Hillary in 2016?
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
Gialmere
Gialmere
Joined: Nov 26, 2018
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November 3rd, 2020 at 10:57:18 AM permalink
Some mystery British punter has just bet $5,000,000 on Trump winning. It's thought to be the largest political wager ever made.

Full Story at The Sun
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
pwcrabb
pwcrabb
Joined: May 15, 2010
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November 3rd, 2020 at 2:51:02 PM permalink
Website Oddschecker.com provides news of optimal lines offered by actual brokers. I am amazed that the lines for National and State Electoral outcomes changed very little over the past seven weeks.

That British punter with the whale wager on Trump got a good price.
"I suppose I was mad. Every great genius is mad upon the subject in which he is greatest. The unsuccessful madman is disgraced and called a lunatic." Fitz-James O'Brien, The Diamond Lens (1858)

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